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Quarterly estimates of national product, income and expenditure, sector accounts and balance of payments.
The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in January 2025 after growing by 0.4 percent in December. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 3.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.
The gross domestic product of the United Kingdom was around 2.56 trillion British pounds, an increase when compared to the previous year, when UK GDP amounted to about 2.54 trillion pounds. The significant drop in GDP visible in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the smaller declines in 2008 and 2009 because of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Low growth problem in the UK Despite growing by 0.9 percent in 2024, and 0.4 percent in 2023 the UK economy is not that much larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since recovering from a huge fall in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy has alternated between periods of contraction and low growth, with the UK even in a recession at the end of 2023. While economic growth picked up somewhat in 2024, GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2022, following two years of negative growth. How big is the UK economy in relation to the rest of the world? As of 2024, the UK had the sixth-largest economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second-largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third-largest economy, is of a similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years, however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.16 percent in 2025 to 2.02 percent by 2029.
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Distribution and use of income account and capital account, financial account and balance sheet quarterly data for the UK total economy.
Economic activity indicators showing the employment status and working patterns of people living in urban and rural areas.
These documents are part of the larger compendium publication the Statistical Digest of Rural England, a collection of rural statistics on a wide range of social and economic government policy areas. The statistics allow comparisons between the different rural and urban area classifications.
Indicators:
Data source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) Annual Business Inquiry (ABI)
Coverage: England
Rural classification used: Office for National Statistics Rural Urban Classification
Next release date: tbc
Defra statistics: rural
Email mailto:rural.statistics@defra.gov.uk">rural.statistics@defra.gov.uk
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The United Kingdom's economy grew by 0.9 percent in 2024, after a growth rate of 0.4 percent in 2023, 4.8 percent in 2022, 8.6 percent in 2021, and a record 10.3 percent fall in 2020. During the provided time period, the biggest annual fall in gross domestic product before 2020 occurred in 2009, when the UK economy contracted by 4.6 percent at the height of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Before 2021, the year with the highest annual GDP growth rate was 1973, when the UK economy grew by 6.5 percent. UK economy growing but GDP per capita falling In 2022, the UK's GDP per capita amounted to approximately 37,371 pounds, with this falling to 37,028 pounds in 2023, and 36,977 pounds in 2024. While the UK economy as a whole grew during this time, the UK's population grew at a faster rate, resulting in the negative growth in GDP per capita. This suggests the UK economy's struggles with productivity are not only stagnating, but getting worse. The relatively poor economic performance of the UK in recent years has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, with the economy consistently seen as the most important issue for voters since 2022. Recent shocks to UK economy In the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy shrank by a record 20.3 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a relatively swift economic recovery initially, the economy has struggled to grow much beyond its pre-pandemic size, and was only around 3.1 percent larger in December 2024, when compared with December 2019. Although the labor market has generally been quite resilient during this time, a long twenty-month period between 2021 and 2023 saw prices rise faster than wages, and inflation surge to a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022.
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Measures, analysis, and research into the digital economy key.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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United Kingdom UK: GDP: saar: Statistical Discrepancy data was reported at 5,796.000 GBP mn in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 8,803.000 GBP mn for 2016. United Kingdom UK: GDP: saar: Statistical Discrepancy data is updated yearly, averaging 0.000 GBP mn from Dec 1955 (Median) to 2017, with 63 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8,803.000 GBP mn in 2016 and a record low of -1,658.000 GBP mn in 1976. United Kingdom UK: GDP: saar: Statistical Discrepancy data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by International Monetary Fund. The data is categorized under Global Database’s UK – Table UK.IMF.IFS: Gross Domestic Product: by Expenditure: Seasonally Adjusted: Annual.
Reported DCMS Sector GVA is estimated to have fallen by 0.4% from Quarter 2 (April to June) to Quarter 3 2022 (July to September) in real terms. By comparison, the whole UK economy fell by 0.2% from Quarter 2 to Quarter 3 2022.
GVA of reported DCMS Sectors in September 2022 was 6% above February 2020 levels, which was the most recent month not significantly affected by the pandemic. By comparison, GVA for the whole UK economy was 0.2% lower than in February 2020.
16 November 2022
These Economic Estimates are Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the economic contribution of DCMS Sectors in terms of gross value added (GVA), for the period January 2019 to September 2022. Provisional monthly GVA in 2019 and 2020 was first published in March 2021 as an ad hoc statistical release. This current release contains new figures for July to September 2022 and revised estimates for previous months, in line with the scheduled revisions that were made to the underlying ONS datasets in October 2022.
Estimates are in chained volume measures (i.e. have been adjusted for inflation), at 2019 prices, and are seasonally adjusted. These latest monthly estimates should only be used to illustrate general trends, not used as definitive figures.
You can use these estimates to:
You should not use these estimates to:
Estimates of annual GVA by DCMS Sectors, based on the monthly series, are included in this release for 2019 to 2021. These are calculated by summing the monthly estimates for the calendar year and were first published for 2019 and 2020 in DCMS Sector National Economic Estimates: 2011 - 2020.
Since August 2022, we have been publishing these estimates as part of the regular published series of GVA data, with data being revised in line with revisions to the underlying ONS datasets, as with the monthly GVA estimates. These estimates have been published, updating what was first published last year, in order to meet growing demand for annual figures for GVA beyond the 2019 estimates in our National Statistics GVA publication. The National Statistics GVA publication estimates remain the most robust for our sectors, however estimates for years after 2019 have been delayed owing to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Consequently, these “summed monthly” annual estimate figures for GVA can be used but should not be seen as definitive.
The findings are calculated based on published ONS data sources including the Index of Services and Index of Production.
These data sources provide an estimate of the monthly change in GVA for all UK industries. However, the data is only available for broader industry groups, whereas DCMS sectors are defined at a more detailed industrial level. For example, GVA for ‘Cultural education’ is estimated based on the trend for all education. Sectors such as ‘Cultural education’ may have been affected differently by COVID-19 compared to education in general. These estimates are also based on the composition of the economy in 2019. Overall, this means the accuracy of monthly GVA for DCMS sectors is likely to be lower for months in 2020 and 2021.
The technical guidance contains further information about data sources, methodology, and the validation and accuracy of these estimates.
Figures are provisional and subject to revision on a monthly basis when the ONS Index of Services and Index of Production are updated. Figures for the latest month will be highly uncertain.
An example of the impact of these revisions is highlighted in the following example; for the revisions applied in February 2022 the average change to DCMS sector monthly GVA was 0.6%, but there were larger differences for some sectors, in some months e.g. the value of the Sport sector in May 2021 was revised from £1.
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Quarterly levels for UK gross domestic product (GDP) at current market prices.
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Annual and quarterly data for UK GDP estimates at chained volume measures and current prices.
According to statistics published by the European Commission, the value of data economy in the 27 European Union countries and United Kingdom is estimated to exceed 440 billion euros in 2020. The source defines the data economy as representing the overall impacts of the data market on the economy as a whole. It involves the generation, collection, storage, processing, distribution, analysis elaboration, delivery, and exploitation of data enabled by digital technologies.
In May 2024, output in UK construction grew by 1.9 percent, with services growing by 0.3 percent, while production output and agriculture output both grew by 0.2 percent.
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Monthly estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) containing constant price gross value added (GVA) data for the UK.
Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
Official statistics are produced impartially and free from political influence.
These Economic Estimates are Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the contribution of DCMS Sectors to the UK economy, measured by GVA (gross value added).
These statistics cover the contributions of the following DCMS sectors to the UK economy;
The report also includes Sport Satellite Account estimates. The Sport Satellite Account estimates of GVA included in this publication for 2016 onwards are based on a revised SSA for 2016. The previous provisional SSA for 2016 was based on the 2014 satellite account and the GVA estimates from that publication are superseded by these.
A definition for each sector is available in the associated methodology note along with details of methods and data limitations.
5 February 2020
DCMS aims to continuously improve the quality of estimates and better meet user needs. Feedback and responses should be sent to DCMS via email at evidence@culture.gov.uk
This release is published in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics, as produced by the UK Statistics Authority. The Authority has the overall objective of promoting and safeguarding the production and publication of official statistics that serve the public good. It monitors and reports on all official statistics, and promotes good practice in this area.
The responsible statisticians for this release is Ziga Dernac. For further details about the estimates, or to be added to a distribution list for future updates, please email us at evidence@culture.gov.uk.
The document above contains a list of ministers and officials who have received privileged early access to this release. In line with best practice, the list has been kept to a minimum and those given access for briefing purposes had a maximum of 24 hours.
Data for statistical bulletin and National Accounts analysis
Collated set of UK socio-economic indicators from the Esri UK National Data Service. These have been made available for a limited period to support COVID-19 responses.This set of socio-economic data covers demographics, deprivation, household composition and unemployment. Sources are UK and England only including: MHCLG Index of Multiple Deprivation; ONS Population Estimates; DWP through NOMIS and 2011 Census where more up to date information is not available. The data is presented across a set of standard geographical areas from Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) to National.
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Private rent price statistics, including indices, annual percentage change and price levels.
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Quarterly estimates of national product, income and expenditure, sector accounts and balance of payments.