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Quarterly estimates of national product, income and expenditure, sector accounts and balance of payments.
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TwitterEach month we publish independent forecasts of key economic and fiscal indicators for the UK economy. Forecasts before 2010 are hosted by The National Archives.
We began publishing comparisons of independent forecasts in 1986. The first database brings together selected variables from those publications, averaged across forecasters. It includes series for Gross Domestic Product, the Consumer Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments, Public Sector Net Borrowing and the Claimant Count. Our second database contains time series of independent forecasts for GDP growth, private consumption, government consumption, fixed investment, domestic demand and net trade, for 26 forecasters with at least 10 years’ worth of submissions since 2010.
We’d welcome feedback on how you find the database and any extra information that you’d like to see included. Email your comments to Carter.Adams@hmtreasury.gov.uk.
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Annual and quarterly data for UK gross domestic product (GDP) estimates, in chained volume measures and current market prices.
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TwitterIn 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by 0.9 percent and is expected to grow by just one percent in 2025 and by 1.9 percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2027, and then grow by 1.7, and 1.8 percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge 9.4 percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by 7.6 percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the one percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from two percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of 3.2 percent predicated, up from 2.6 percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be 4.5 percent instead of 4.1 percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in Q3 and by 0.3 percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.
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TwitterOpen Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Quarterly estimates of national product, income and expenditure, sector accounts and balance of payments.
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TwitterGovernment spending in the United Kingdom was approximately 44.7 percent of GDP in 2024/25, compared with 39.6 percent in 2019/20.
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TwitterForecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2025 and 2026, as well as medium-term forecasts from 2025 to 2029, and financial year 2025-26 to 2029-30.
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TwitterThe economy of the United Kingdom reported zero growth in July 2025, after growing by 0.4 percent in June 2025. As of the most recent month, the UK economy is around 4.8 percent larger than it was in February 2020, just before the start of COVID-19 lockdowns. After a record 19.6 percent decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy quickly returned to growth in the following months, and grew through most of 2021. Cost of living crisis lingers into 2025 As of December 2024, just over half of people in the UK reported that their cost of living was higher than it was in the previous month. Although this is a decline from the peak of the crisis in 2022 when over 90 percent of people reported a higher cost of living, households are evidently still under severe pressure. While wage growth has outpaced inflation since July 2023, overall consumer prices were 20 percent higher in late 2024 than they were in late 2021. For food and energy, which lower income households spend more on, late 2024 prices were almost 30 percent higher when compared with late 2021. According to recent estimates, living standards, as measured by changes in disposable income fell by 2.1 percent in 2022/23, but did start to grow again in 2023/24. Late 2023 recession followed by growth in 2024 In December 2023, the UK economy was approximately the same size as it was a year earlier, and struggled to achieve modest growth throughout that year. Going into 2023, a surge in energy costs, as well as high interest rates, created an unfavorable environment for UK consumers and businesses. The inflationary pressures that drove these problems did start to subside, however, with inflation falling to 3.9 percent in November 2023, down from a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Although relatively strong economic growth occurred in the first half of 2024, with GDP growing by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent in the first two quarters of the year, zero growth was reported in the third quarter of the year. Long-term issues, such as low business investment, weak productivity growth, and regional inequality, will likely continue to hamper the economy going forward.
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TwitterThe government of the United Kingdom borrowed approximately 2.6 percent worth of its GDP in the 2024/25 financial year, compared with 2.3 percent in 2023/24. In 2020/21, government borrowing reached 11.6 percent of GDP, due to increased financial support to public services during the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with reduced revenue because of societal lockdowns.
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This dataset contains all the data tables related to the UK GDP statistical release published in March 2023 by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) from Q1 1955 - 2023.
Throughout these tables, Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (January to March), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (April to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to September), and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (October to December).
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Annual estimates of balanced UK regional gross domestic product (GDP). Current price estimates and chained volume measures for UK countries, ITL1, ITL2 and ITL3 regions.
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TwitterOfficial statistics are produced impartially and free from political influence.
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TwitterThe gross domestic product of the United Kingdom in 2024 was around 2.78 trillion British pounds, an increase when compared to the previous year, when UK GDP amounted to about 2.75 trillion pounds. The significant drop in GDP visible in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the smaller declines in 2008 and 2009 because of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Low growth problem in the UK Despite growing by 0.9 percent in 2024, and 0.4 percent in 2023 the UK economy is not that much larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since recovering from a huge fall in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy has alternated between periods of contraction and low growth, with the UK even in a recession at the end of 2023. While economic growth picked up somewhat in 2024, GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2022, following two years of negative growth. UK's global share of GDP falling As of 2024, the UK had the sixth-largest economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second-largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third-largest economy, is of a similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years, however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.16 percent in 2025 to 2.02 percent by 2029.
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TwitterThe UK economy grew by 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2025, compared with 0.3 percent growth in the previous quarter. After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy grew strongly in the first half of 2024, growing by 0.8 percent in Q1, and 0.6 percent in Q2, with growth slowing in the second half of the year. In the third quarter of 2020 the UK experienced record setting growth of 16.8 percent, which itself followed the record 20.3 percent contraction in Q2 2020. Growing economy key to Labour's plans Since winning the 2024 general election, the UK's Labour Party have seen their popularity fall substantially. In February 2025, the government's approval rating fell to a low of -54 percent, making them almost as disliked as the Conservatives just before the last election. A string of unpopular policies since taking office have taken a heavy toll on support for the government. Labour hope they can reverse their declining popularity by growing the economy, which has underperformed for several years, and when measured in GDP per capita, fell in 2023, and 2024. Steady labor market trends set to continue? After a robust 2022, the UK labor market remained resilient throughout 2023 and 2024. The unemployment rate at the end of 2024 was 4.4 percent, up from four percent at the start of the year, but still one of the lowest rates on record. While the average number of job vacancies has been falling since a May 2022 peak, there was a slight increase in January 2025 when compared with the previous month. The more concerning aspect of the labor market, from the government's perspective, are the high levels of economic inactivity due to long-term sickness, which reached a peak of 2.84 million in late 2023, and remained at high levels throughout 2024.
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Monthly estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) containing constant price gross value added (GVA) data for the UK.
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United Kingdom UK: GDP: USD data was reported at 2,622.434 USD bn in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2,650.850 USD bn for 2016. United Kingdom UK: GDP: USD data is updated yearly, averaging 918.504 USD bn from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3,074.360 USD bn in 2007 and a record low of 72.328 USD bn in 1960. United Kingdom UK: GDP: USD data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.World Bank.WDI: Gross Domestic Product: Nominal. GDP at purchaser's prices is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources. Data are in current U.S. dollars. Dollar figures for GDP are converted from domestic currencies using single year official exchange rates. For a few countries where the official exchange rate does not reflect the rate effectively applied to actual foreign exchange transactions, an alternative conversion factor is used.; ; World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.; Gap-filled total;
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TwitterThe United Kingdom's economy grew by 1.1 percent in 2024, after a growth rate of 0.3 percent in 2023, 5.1 percent in 2022, 8.5 percent in 2021, and a record ten percent fall in 2020. During the provided time period, the biggest annual fall in gross domestic product before 2020 occurred in 2009, when the UK economy contracted by 4.6 percent at the height of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Before 2021, the year with the highest annual GDP growth rate was 1973, when the UK economy grew by 6.5 percent. UK economy growing but GDP per capita falling In 2022, the UK's GDP per capita amounted to approximately 37,371 pounds, with this falling to 37,028 pounds in 2023, and 36,977 pounds in 2024. While the UK economy as a whole grew during this time, the UK's population grew at a faster rate, resulting in the negative growth in GDP per capita. This suggests the UK economy's struggles with productivity are not only stagnating, but getting worse. The relatively poor economic performance of the UK in recent years has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, with the economy consistently seen as the most important issue for voters since 2022. Recent shocks to UK economy In the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy shrank by a record 20.3 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a relatively swift economic recovery initially, the economy has struggled to grow much beyond its pre-pandemic size, and was only around 3.1 percent larger in December 2024, when compared with December 2019. Although the labor market has generally been quite resilient during this time, a long twenty-month period between 2021 and 2023 saw prices rise faster than wages, and inflation surge to a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022.
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TwitterThis Annual GVA series is our most accurate estimate of Digital Sector GVA. These Economic Estimates are Accredited Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the contribution of the Digital Sector and its associated subsectors to the UK, measured by GVA (gross value added).
This is the first release of provisional annual estimates for 2023, and Blue Book 2024 inclusive revisions to 2019 to 2022 annual estimates. The provisional Annual GVA estimates for 2023 for the Digital Sector will be revised in our next release, upon updates to underlying ABS data, and further revised in the following statistical release to include Blue Book 2025 revisions. Our next release is planned to include a full analytical report providing additional analysis on our produced GVA estimates.
This release includes a methodology update to the deflators used to remove the effects of inflation in our chained volume measure estimates. A summary of the revisions to 2019 to 2022 estimates as part of this release can be found in the accompanying revisions report.
This is a continuation of the Digital Sector Economic Estimates: Annual GVA release series, previously produced by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS). Responsibility for Digital and Telecommunications policy now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT).
Findings in this release are calculated based on the published Office for National Statistics (ONS) https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/supplyandusetables/datasets/supplyanduseofproductsandindustrygvaukexperimental">Supply and Use Tables, ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/ukgdpolowlevelaggregates">Gross Domestic Product (GDP) low-level aggregates and the ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/methodologies/annualbusinesssurveyabs">Annual Business Survey (ABS).
The Supply and Use Tables (SUT) report balanced GVA at the 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code level up to 2022. SUT GVA is consistent with UK</a
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TwitterIn 2025, the UK economy is expected to grow by just one percent, according to the economic and fiscal outlook from March 2025. GDP growth has been downgraded from two percent when compared with the previous forecast from October 2024. The inflation rate is expected to average out at 3.2 percent, and the unemployment rate at 4.5 percent. Inflation distress continues for UK consumers The expected increase in UK inflation for 2025 looks set to peak at 3.7 percent in the third quarter of the year, before falling to two percent by early 2026. Though this spike in prices will be far less serious than in 2022, when UK inflation reached a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, UK households are still suffering from the impact of the previous crisis. In March 2025, approximately 59 percent of UK households were dealing with rising living costs, relative to the previous month, mainly due to rising energy and food costs. Unemployment set to rise in 2025 Aside from rising prices and a slowing economy, the UK will also have to contend with rising unemployment in 2025. As with inflation, however, the rise in unemployment is expected to be relatively mild and short-lived, especially when compared with previous periods of high unemployment. Recently, the government has been more concerned about high levels of economic inactivity, especially among young people, with the number of 16- to 24-year-olds not in employment, education, or training approaching one million towards the end of 2024.
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Annual and quarterly data for the latest gross domestic product (GDP) estimates in chained volume measures and at current market prices.
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TwitterOpen Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
License information was derived automatically
Quarterly estimates of national product, income and expenditure, sector accounts and balance of payments.