Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.

Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.

No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.

This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2022 and 2023.

Headline findings

DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism)

In June 2023, GVA of reported DCMS sectors increased at a greater rate than the UK as a whole. GVA of the included DCMS Sectors grew by around 1.0% compared to May 2023, while the UK as a whole grew by 0.5%. This followed a 0.1% estimated growth in DCMS Sectors in April (up 0.2% in the whole UK economy) and a 0.9% estimated increase in May (0.1% decrease for the whole UK economy).

GVA of reported DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism) in June 2023 was 10% above February 2020 levels, which was the most recent month prior to pandemic measures being introduced in the UK. By comparison, GVA for the whole UK economy was 0.8% higher than in February 2020.

Digital and Telecoms sectors

In June 2023, Digital Sector GVA grew by around 1% from May 2023, while GVA for the UK economy grew by less (0.5%). This increase followed a 0.9% increase for the Digital Sector in April (up 0.2% for the whole UK economy) and a 0.2% estimated increase in May (0.1% decrease for the whole UK economy).

GVA by the Digital Sector in March 2023 was 15% above February 2020 levels, which was the most recent month prior to pandemic measures being introduced in the UK. By comparison, GVA for the whole UK economy was 0.8% higher than in February 2020.

Released

16 August 2023

About this release

The DCMS Sector total reported here includes Civil Society, Creative Industries, Cultural Sector, Gambling and Sport. Tourism is not included as the data is not yet available (see note in data table). Figures for the Digital Sector and Telecoms are presented separately as responsibility for these policy areas now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology.

Monthly estimates

These Economic Estimates are Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the economic contribution of DCMS Sectors, and of the Digital Sector, in terms of gross value added (GVA), for the period January 2019 to June 2023. This current release contains new figures for April to June 2023.

Estimates are in chained volume measures (i.e. have been adjusted for inflation), at 2019 prices, and are seasonally adjusted. These latest monthly estimates should only be used to illustrate general trends, not used as definitive figures.

You can use these estimates to:

• Look at relative indicative changes in GVA over time for DCMS sectors and subsectors (and, respectively, for the Digital Sector and sub-sectors)

You should not use these estimates to:

• Quantify GVA for a specific month
• Measure absolute change in GVA over time
• Determine findings for sectors that are defined using more detailed industrial classes (due to the data sources only being available at broader industry levels)

Data sources and Technical information

The findings are calculated based on published ONS data sources including the Index of Services and Index of Production.

These data sources provide an estimate of the monthly change in GVA for all UK industries. However, the data is only available for broader industry groups, whereas DCMS sectors, and the Digital Sector, are respectively defined at a more detailed industrial level. For example, GVA for ‘Cultural education’ (a sub-sector of the Cultural Sector within the DCMS Sectors) is estimated based on the trend for all education. Sectors such as ‘Cultural education’ may have been affected differently by COVID-19 compared to education in general. These estimates are also based on the composition of the economy in 2019. Overall, this means the accuracy of monthly GVA for DCMS sectors is likely to be lower for months in 2020 and 2021.

The technical guidance contains further information about data sources, methodology, and the validation and accuracy of these estimates. The latest version of this guidance was published in November 2022. The only significant change since then is that figures for the Digital Sector and Telecoms are now presented separately as responsibility for these policy areas now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology.

Content

These statistics cover the contributions of the following sectors to the UK economy.

DCMS Sectors:

• Civil Society
• Creative Industries
• Cultural Sector
• Gambling
• Sport

Users should note that there is overlap between DCMS sector definitions and that several Cu

Headline findings

DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism)

GVA of reported DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism) in December 2022 was 6% above February 2020 levels, which was the most recent month prior to pandemic measures being introduced in the UK. By comparison, GVA for the whole UK economy was 0.5% lower than in February 2020.

Digital and Telecoms sectors

GVA by the Digital Sector in November 2022 was 10% above February 2020 levels, which was the most recent month prior to pandemic measures being introduced in the UK. By comparison, GVA for the whole UK economy was 0.5% lower than in February 2020.

Released

15 February 2023

About this release

The DCMS Sector total reported here includes Civil Society, Creative Industries, Cultural Sector, Gambling and Sport. Tourism is not included as the data is not yet available (see note in data table). Figures for the Digital Sector and Telecoms are presented separately as responsibility for these policy areas now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology.

Monthly estimates

These Economic Estimates are Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the economic contribution of DCMS Sectors, and of the Digital Sector, in terms of gross value added (GVA), for the period January 2019 to December 2022. This current release contains new figures for October to December 2022 and revised estimates for previous months, in line with the scheduled revisions that were made to the underlying ONS datasets.

Estimates are in chained volume measures (i.e. have been adjusted for inflation), at 2019 prices, and are seasonally adjusted. These latest monthly estimates should only be used to illustrate general trends, not used as definitive figures.

You can use these estimates to:

• Look at relative indicative changes in GVA over time for DCMS sectors and subsectors (and, respectively, for the Digital Sector and sub-sectors)

You should not use these estimates to:

• Quantify GVA for a specific month
• Measure absolute change in GVA over time
• Determine findings for sectors that are defined using more detailed industrial classes (due to the data sources only being available at broader industry levels)

Data sources and Technical information

The findings are calculated based on published ONS data sources including the Index of Services and Index of Production.

These data sources provide an estimate of the monthly change in GVA for all UK industries. However, the data is only available for broader industry groups, whereas DCMS sectors, and the Digital Sector, are respectively defined at a more detailed industrial level. For example, GVA for ‘Cultural education’ (a sub-sector of the Cultural Sector within the DCMS Sectors) is estimated based on the trend for all education. Sectors such as ‘Cultural education’ may have been affected differently by COVID-19 compared to education in general. These estimates are also based on the composition of the economy in 2019. Overall, this means the accuracy of monthly GVA for DCMS sectors is likely to be lower for months in 2020 and 2021.

The technical guidance contains further information about data sources, methodology, and the validation and accuracy of these estimates. The latest version of this guidance was published in November 2022. The only significant change since then is that figures for the Digital Sector and Telecoms are now presented separately as responsibility for these policy areas now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology.

Content

These statistics cover the contributions of the following sectors to the UK economy.

DCMS Sectors:

• Civil Society
• Creative Industries
• Cultural Sector
• Gambling
• Sport

Users should note that there is overlap between DCMS sector definitions and that several Cultural Sector industries are simultaneously Creative Industries.

Timely estimates of Tourism GVA are not available at present, due to a lack of suitable data.

Digital Sector:

• Digital Sector
• Telecoms

Users should note that there is overlap between these two sectors’ definitions. Specifically: the Telecoms sector sits wholly within the Digital Sector.

Feedback and consultation

We aim to continuously improve the quality of estima

About

These official statistics in development provide provisional estimates of the productivity of DCMS sectors for 2019 to 2022, and provisionally for 2023, measured by gross value added (GVA) per hour worked.

This is the first time we have published time series data for output per hour, which is the preferred measure of labour productivity and has the advantage of accounting for different working patterns. We have previously published productivity estimates for output per job, however suitable data is not currently available to update this series. We will review this in future, based on both data availability and user needs

These estimates should not be directly compared to the previously published ones, as the methodology has since changed and the data used to produce the older estimates has since been substantially revised.

Content

DCMS sectors

These statistics cover productivity in the following DCMS sectors:

• creative industries
• cultural sector
• gambling
• sport

Users should note that there is overlap between DCMS sector definitions and that several cultural sector industries are simultaneously creative industries.

A definition for each sector is available in the tables published alongside this release. Further information on all these sectors is available in the associated technical report above along with details of methods and data limitations.

Estimates exclude tourism, due to a lack of suitable data, and civil society, as our definitions for civil society jobs, hours worked and GVA are incompatible. Work is ongoing to explore the feasibility of developing estimates.

Headline findings:

In 2023:

• Output per hour in included DCMS sectors (creative industries, culture, sport and gambling) was £35, compared to £43 for the UK as a whole. This means that for DCMS sectors compared to the UK average, more hours of work are needed to generate the same amount of GVA.
• Between 2022 and 2023, we provisionally estimate that output per hour in included DCMS sectors fell by around 3% compared to a fall for the overall UK economy of around 0.5%.
• Compared to pre-pandemic (2019), included DCMS sector output per hour in 2023 was estimated to be relatively unchanged, compared to around a 3% increase for the UK as a whole.
• DCMS sector productivity estimates vary by sector and subsector.

The following information is worth noting:

• Estimates for 2023 are provisional and subject to change when the National Accounts are published later in 2025.
• GVA is a standard measure of labour output, and has the advantages of comparability and availability of data, but will produce apparently lower values of productivity for parts of DCMS sectors (e.g. museums, libraries) where goods and services are often provided free at the points of consumption and have wider cultural and societal benefits (which may also include indirect effects on UK GVA).
• These estimates use the ONS dataset https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/productivitymeasures/datasets/outputperhourworkeduk">output per hour worked which is classified as official statistics in development because the estimates are based on the Labour Force Survey which has been impacted by falling sample sizes. The estimates also use ONS Annual Population Survey (APS) estimates of hours worked, which has also been impacted by falling sample sizes. As a result, the accreditation of ONS statistics based on the APS was temporarily suspended on 9 October 2024 and these statistics are considered official statistics in development until further review. This means there is greater uncertainty in DCMS sector estimates.

Released

First published on 20 March 2025.

Official statistics in development: Call for Feedback

These statistics are labelled as https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/policies/official-statistics-policies/official-statistics-in-development/">official statistics in development. Official statistics in development are official statistics that are undergoing development and will be tested with users, in line with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the https://code.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/">Code of Practice for Statistics. These productivity estimates are designed to complement our other economic estimates and to give a deeper understanding of the economic performance of DCMS sectors to the UK economy. They are being published as official statistics in development because:

• they include an updated

Headline findings

All level estimates in this release are presented in 2022 prices.

DCMS sectors (excluding tourism)

In June 2024, these early estimates show that GVA by DCMS sectors increased by around 0.5% compared to May 2024, while GVA by the UK as a whole was unchanged.

Looking at the quarter as a whole, in the three months to June 2024, GVA by the included DCMS sectors is estimated to have grown by around 2% compared with the three months to March 2024, compared to the UK economy as a whole which is estimated to have grown by 0.6%.

Since February 2020 (pre-pandemic), included DCMS sector GVA has grown at a faster rate than the UK as a whole at a 9% increase compared to 3% for the UK economy, though trends vary by sector.

Released

20 August 2024

About this release

The DCMS Sector total reported here includes civil society, creative industries, cultural sector, gambling and sport. Tourism is not included as the data is not yet available (see note in data table).

Monthly estimates

These Economic Estimates are Official Statistics, used to provide an estimate of the economic contribution of DCMS sectors, in terms of gross value added (GVA), for the period January 2019 to June 2024. This current release contains new figures for April to June 2024.

Estimates are in chained volume measures (i.e. have been adjusted for inflation), at 2022 prices, and are seasonally adjusted. These latest monthly estimates should only be used to illustrate general trends, not used as definitive figures.

You can use these estimates to:

• Look at relative indicative changes in GVA over time for DCMS sectors and subsectors

You should not use these estimates to:

• Quantify GVA for a specific month
• Measure absolute change in GVA over time
• Determine findings for sectors that are defined using more detailed industrial classes (due to the data sources only being available at broader industry levels)

Data sources and technical information

The estimates are calculated based on published ONS data sources including the Index of Services and Index of Production.

These data sources provide an estimate of the monthly change in GVA for all UK industries. However, the data is only available for broader industry groups, whereas DCMS sectors are defined at a more detailed industrial level. For example, GVA for ‘cultural education’ (a sub-sector of the cultural sector within the DCMS sectors) is estimated based on the trend for all education. Sectors such as ‘cultural education’ may have been affected differently by COVID-19 compared to education in general. These estimates are also based on the composition of the economy in 2019. Overall, this means the accuracy of monthly GVA for DCMS sectors is likely to be lower for months in 2020 and 2021.

The technical guidance contains further information about data sources, methodology, and the validation and accuracy of these estimates. The latest version of this guidance was published in November 2023.

Content

These statistics cover the contributions of the following sectors to the UK economy.

DCMS Sectors:

• civil society
• creative industries
• cultural sector
• gambling
• sport

Users should note that there is overlap between DCMS sector definitions and that several cultural sector industries are simultaneously creative industries.

Timely estimates of tourism GVA are not available at present, due to a lack of suitable data.

Feedback and consultation

We aim to continuously improve the quality of estimates and better meet user needs. We welcome feedback on this release. Feedback should be sent via email to evidence@dcms.gov.uk.

Office for Statistics Regulation .

Our statistical practice is regulated by the OSR. OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the https://code.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/the-code/">Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards by emailing evidence@dcms.gov.uk. Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the https://osr.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/">OSR website</

About

These economic estimates are used to provide an estimate of the contribution of DCMS sectors to the UK economy, measured by employment (number of filled jobs). These estimates are calculated based on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Annual Population Survey (APS).They have been independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) and are accredited official statistics.

Content

DCMS Sectors

These statistics cover the contributions of the following DCMS sectors to the UK economy;

• civil society
• creative industries
• cultural sector
• gambling
• sport

Tourism is not included as the data is not available for non-calendar year publications. The release also includes estimates for the audio visual sector and computer games sector but they do not form part of the DCMS total.

Users should note that there is overlap between DCMS sector definitions. In particular, several cultural sector industries are simultaneously creative industries.

A definition for each sector is available in the tables published alongside this release. Further information on all these sectors is available in the associated technical report along with details of methods and data limitations.

Headline findings

There were 4.0 million total filled jobs in the included DCMS sectors, representing 11.9% of UK total filled jobs. This is similar to the previous equivalent 12 month period of 11.8% and a 1.2 percentage point increase on pre-pandemic (2019), at 10.7%.

Growth in the included DCMS sectors was 1.3% when compared to the previous equivalent 12 month period, compared to 0.5% for all UK sectors.Growth in filled jobs within the included DCMS sectors has exceeded that of the UK overall compared to 2019 (12.4% vs 1.6%) and over the longer term compared to 2011 (39.4% vs 13.1%).

Within the included DCMS sectors, 24.4% of filled jobs were in London, a higher proportion compared to the UK economy overall, of which 16.0% were in London. However, this varies by sector.

Call for feedback

We are always interested in receiving feedback on our statistics. We are particularly interested in how useful our rolling quarterly employment statistics are, and how statistics for non-calendar year quarterly periods are used in comparison to our calendar year statistics. If you have any feedback, please contact us directly by emailing evidence@dcms.gov.uk.

Released

First published on 3rd April 2025.

Pre-release access

A document is provided that contains a list of ministers and officials who have received privileged early access to this release. In line with best practice, the list has been kept to a minimum and those given access for briefing purposes had a maximum of 24 hours.

Office for Statistics Regulation

DCMS Economic Estimates Employment official statistics, calculated from the ONS Annual Population Survey (APS), were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) in June 2019. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the https://code.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/">Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled accredited official statistics. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.

Our statistical practice is regulated by the OSR. OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the <a rel="external" href="https://cod

Headline Findings

In the 2021 calendar year, there were approximately 4,270,000 filled jobs in DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism), 12.9% of the UK total, and a 3.1% increase compared to the preceding 12 months.

Growth in total DCMS sector filled jobs was primarily driven by the Creative Industries and Digital sectors, which increased by 113,000 (5.1%) and 108,000 (6.3%) filled jobs respectively. This was partially offset by decreases in the Civil Society and Sport sectors (4,000, 0.5% and 5,000, 0.9% respectively).

Although there is wide variation between sectors in terms of demographic breakdowns, overall the proportion of filled jobs held by women was lower in the DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism) (44.5%) than the UK overall (48.1%). DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism) have a similar share of jobs filled by people from ethnic minority groups (excluding white minorities) or by people with disabilities compared to the UK workforce overall.

According to earnings estimates in the 2021 calendar year, within the DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism) median hourly gross pay was greater than the UK overall, at £15.68 compared to £13.51. Of the individual sectors, only Gambling and Sport had lower pay than the UK average, while the Creative Industries and Digital sector had the highest median pay.

Within the DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism), the difference in pay between men and women is estimated to exceed the UK overall (DCMS 23.9%, UK 15.1%), while the disability pay gap was similar (14.7%, 14.6%) and there was great variation in pay by ethnic group.

About this release

The employment (number of filled jobs) estimates series is a National Statistic under the Code of Practice for Statistics. It is calculated based on the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Annual Population Survey (APS).

The earnings estimates series is an Experimental Statistic. It is also calculated based on the ONS Annual Population Survey (APS) and was first published in the DCMS Sector National Economics: 2011 to 2020 to provide estimates of earnings with different demographic breakdowns. For headline estimates of earnings, DCMS also publishes estimates using the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE), which are seen as more robust for that purpose.

Additionally, DCMS has published estimates of the Civil Society sector, broken down by Local Authority. This uses pooled data spanning the period 2018 to 2021 to boost sample sizes. It was developed as an “ad hoc” release based on user request and can be found in our ad hoc statistical release page.

Creative Occupations

In 2020, the ONS conducted a review of the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) codes to update and revise the classification of occupations to reflect changes within the economy since the previous ‘refresh’, around 2010. As the Creative Industries is defined using the occupation codes which have been determined as creative, DCMS has updated the list of creative occupations based on the