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TwitterForecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2018 and 2019 with the addition of new data on productivity growth and quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.
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TwitterOpen Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Quarterly estimates of national product, income and expenditure, sector accounts and balance of payments.
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Historical dataset showing U.K. economic growth by year from 1955 to 2018.
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TwitterThe United Kingdom's economy grew by 1.1 percent in 2024, after a growth rate of 0.3 percent in 2023, 5.1 percent in 2022, 8.5 percent in 2021, and a record ten percent fall in 2020. During the provided time period, the biggest annual fall in gross domestic product before 2020 occurred in 2009, when the UK economy contracted by 4.6 percent at the height of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Before 2021, the year with the highest annual GDP growth rate was 1973, when the UK economy grew by 6.5 percent. UK economy growing but GDP per capita falling In 2022, the UK's GDP per capita amounted to approximately 37,371 pounds, with this falling to 37,028 pounds in 2023, and 36,977 pounds in 2024. While the UK economy as a whole grew during this time, the UK's population grew at a faster rate, resulting in the negative growth in GDP per capita. This suggests the UK economy's struggles with productivity are not only stagnating, but getting worse. The relatively poor economic performance of the UK in recent years has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, with the economy consistently seen as the most important issue for voters since 2022. Recent shocks to UK economy In the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy shrank by a record 20.3 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a relatively swift economic recovery initially, the economy has struggled to grow much beyond its pre-pandemic size, and was only around 3.1 percent larger in December 2024, when compared with December 2019. Although the labor market has generally been quite resilient during this time, a long twenty-month period between 2021 and 2023 saw prices rise faster than wages, and inflation surge to a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022.
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TwitterThe gross domestic product of the United Kingdom in 2024 was around 2.78 trillion British pounds, an increase when compared to the previous year, when UK GDP amounted to about 2.75 trillion pounds. The significant drop in GDP visible in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the smaller declines in 2008 and 2009 because of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Low growth problem in the UK Despite growing by 0.9 percent in 2024, and 0.4 percent in 2023 the UK economy is not that much larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since recovering from a huge fall in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy has alternated between periods of contraction and low growth, with the UK even in a recession at the end of 2023. While economic growth picked up somewhat in 2024, GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2022, following two years of negative growth. UK's global share of GDP falling As of 2024, the UK had the sixth-largest economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second-largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third-largest economy, is of a similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years, however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.16 percent in 2025 to 2.02 percent by 2029.
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TwitterAccording to statistics published by the European Commission, the estimated share of data economy's impact on the GDP in the 27 European Union countries and the United Kingdom amounted to 2.6 percent in 2019 and is expected to reach 4.2 percent by 2025 in the baseline scenario.
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United Kingdom UK: GDP: Net Primary Income from Abroad data was reported at 514,937.000 GBP mn in Dec 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 502,976.000 GBP mn for Sep 2018. United Kingdom UK: GDP: Net Primary Income from Abroad data is updated quarterly, averaging 400,342.000 GBP mn from Mar 1995 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 96 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 514,937.000 GBP mn in Dec 2018 and a record low of 206,005.000 GBP mn in Mar 1995. United Kingdom UK: GDP: Net Primary Income from Abroad data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by International Monetary Fund. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.IMF.IFS: Gross Domestic Product: by Expenditure: Quarterly.
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Annexes to this article detailing the methodological and data improvements that impact on current price GDP for the period 1997 to 2016
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Monthly data on the UK's trade in goods and services, including trade inside and outside the EU. Up until July 2018.
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United Kingdom UK: GDP: Net National Income data was reported at 1,834,352.000 GBP mn in 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1,761,368.000 GBP mn for 2017. United Kingdom UK: GDP: Net National Income data is updated yearly, averaging 1,311,377.000 GBP mn from Dec 1995 (Median) to 2018, with 24 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,834,352.000 GBP mn in 2018 and a record low of 738,989.000 GBP mn in 1995. United Kingdom UK: GDP: Net National Income data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by International Monetary Fund. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.IMF.IFS: Gross Domestic Product: by Expenditure: Annual.
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TwitterThis statistic shows the United Kingdom (UK) financial and insurance industries gross value added (GVA) as a share of the UK's total economic output. It can be seen that in the years running up to the global financial crisis the United Kingdoms finance and insurance industry became a major factor of its economic gross value added output. in 2009 (one year post financial crisis) the UK's finance and insurance industry accounted for nine percent of its GVA. Since then there has been a steady decrease amounting to 6.9 percent as of 2018. In 2017, London accounted for almost half of financial sectors GVA.
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United Kingdom UK: GDP: Net Current Transfers from Abroad data was reported at 355,360.000 GBP mn in Dec 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 357,377.000 GBP mn for Sep 2018. United Kingdom UK: GDP: Net Current Transfers from Abroad data is updated quarterly, averaging 267,045.500 GBP mn from Mar 1995 (Median) to Dec 2018, with 96 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 370,946.000 GBP mn in Mar 2018 and a record low of 130,717.000 GBP mn in Jun 1995. United Kingdom UK: GDP: Net Current Transfers from Abroad data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by International Monetary Fund. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.IMF.IFS: Gross Domestic Product: by Expenditure: Quarterly.
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United Kingdom UK: GDP: Government Consumption Expenditure data was reported at 94,094.000 GBP mn in Jun 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 96,143.000 GBP mn for Mar 2018. United Kingdom UK: GDP: Government Consumption Expenditure data is updated quarterly, averaging 71,847.500 GBP mn from Mar 1995 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 94 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 96,143.000 GBP mn in Mar 2018 and a record low of 35,174.000 GBP mn in Sep 1995. United Kingdom UK: GDP: Government Consumption Expenditure data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by International Monetary Fund. The data is categorized under Global Database’s UK – Table UK.IMF.IFS: Gross Domestic Product: by Expenditure: Quarterly.
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TwitterThis statistic shows the Economy Confidence Indicator (ECI) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the United Kingdom (UK) from February 2016 to January 2018. The ECI showed a net decrease of six points between February 2016 and February 2017 but remained mostly negative thereafter.
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TwitterSince 1980, Europe's largest economies have consistently been France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, although the former Soviet Union's economy was the largest in the 1980s, and Russia's economy has been larger than Spain's since 2010. Since Soviet dissolution, Germany has always had the largest economy in Europe, while either France or the UK has had the second largest economy depending on the year. Italy's economy was of a relatively similar size to that of the UK and France until the mid-2000s when it started to diverge, resulting in a difference of approximately 800 billion U.S dollars by 2018. Russia's economy had overtaken both Italy and Spain's in 2012, but has fallen since 2014 due to the drop in international oil prices and the economic sanctions imposed for its annexation of Crimea - economic growth is expected to be comparatively low in Russia in the coming years due to the economic fallout of its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In 2025, Germany, now the world's third-largest economy, was estimated at over *** trillion U.S. dollars.
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United Kingdom Total Economy (TE): Uses: sa: Redistribution of Income (RI) data was reported at 587,266.000 GBP mn in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 584,948.000 GBP mn for Mar 2018. United Kingdom Total Economy (TE): Uses: sa: Redistribution of Income (RI) data is updated quarterly, averaging 342,166.000 GBP mn from Mar 1987 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 126 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 587,266.000 GBP mn in Jun 2018 and a record low of 130,831.000 GBP mn in Mar 1987. United Kingdom Total Economy (TE): Uses: sa: Redistribution of Income (RI) data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Office for National Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s UK – Table UK.AB025: ESA10: Resources and Uses: Total Economy: Redistribution of Income.
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Data underlying comparisons of UK productivity against that of the remaining G7 countries.
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TwitterThe statistic shows the growth rate in the real GDP in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, the rate of GDP growth in the United Kingdom was at around 1.1 percent compared to the previous year.The economy of the United KingdomGDP is used an indicator as to the shape of a national economy. It is one of the most regularly called upon measurements regarding the economic fitness of a country. GDP is the total market value of all final goods and services that have been produced in a country within a given period of time, usually a year. Inflation adjusted real GDP figures serve as an even more telling indication of a country’s economic state in that they act as a more reliable and clear tool as to a nation’s economic health. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the United Kingdom has started to level in recent years after taking a huge body blow in the financial collapse of 2008. The UK managed to rise from the state of dark desperation it was in between 2009 and 2010, from -3.97 to 1.8 percent. The country suffered acutely from the collapse of the banking industry, raising a number of questions within the UK with regards to the country’s heavy reliance on revenues coming from London's financial sector, arguably the most important in the world and one of the globe’s financial command centers. Since the collapse of the post-war consensus and the rise of Thatcherism, the United Kingdom has been swept along in a wave of individualism - collective ideals have been abandoned and the mass privatisation of the heavy industries was unveiled - opening them up to market competition and shifting the economic focus to that of service.The Big Bang policy, one of the cornerstones of the Thatcher government programs of reform, involved mass and sudden deregulation of financial markets. This led to huge changes in the way the financial markets in London work, and saw the many old firms being absorbed by big banks. This, one could argue, strengthened the UK financial sector greatly and while frivolous and dangerous practices brought the sector into great disrepute, the city of London alone brings in around one fifth of the countries national income making it a very prominent contributor to wealth in the UK.
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Annual estimates of balanced UK regional gross domestic product (GDP). Current price estimates and chained volume measures for UK countries, ITL1, ITL2 and ITL3 regions.
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Size and growth within the UK and regional non-financial sectors as measured by the Annual Business Survey.
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TwitterForecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2018 and 2019 with the addition of new data on productivity growth and quarter-on-quarter GDP growth.