A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was *** percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU. The estimated hit to the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) increases to ***** percent in 2024, and to *** percent by 2025 in this forecast. UK growth cut at start of turbulent 2025 After growing by *** percent in 2024, the UK economy is expected to grow by *** percent in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of *** percent. As of 2025, the UK economy is approximately *** percent larger than it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic five years earlier, which delivered a sudden and severe economic shock to the country. While the initial bounce back from this collapse was robust, the recovery slowed by the end of 2020, and it wasn't until late 2021 that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic size. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the economy continued to struggle, and even experienced a recession at the end of 2023. How voters feel about Brexit in 2025 Since the middle of 2021, a growing majority of voters in Britain have advised that they think Brexit was the wrong decision. As of January 2025, around ** percent thought it was wrong to leave the EU, compared with just ** percent in April 2021. By comparison, the share of Britons who think Brexit was the right decision has fallen from ** percent to ** percent in the same time period. Voters are, however, still quite divided on what relationship they want with the EU, with only ** percent supporting rejoining completely. Furthermore, Brexit has fallen behind other issues for voters such as the economy, the NHS, and immigration and the issue played a much smaller role in the 2024 election than it did in 2019.

As of January 31, 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) is no longer a member of the European Union (EU). The UK left the EU without a trade deal, and has until the end of 2020 to determine the new framework of its trade relations with the EU. This means either a free trade agreement (FTA) will need to be struck between the two parties, or the UK will fall back on trading under the World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules. According to a study on the possible impact of these scenarios on GDP growth in the UK, after the transition period ends by the beginning of 2021, trading under WTO terms will lead to a decline of *** percent in UK GDP. Relative to this rate, if the UK trade with the EU under a FTA, the GDP is forecast to improve by * percent.

This statistic reflects the percentage distribution of the perception of the impact of Brexit on the economy of the European Union and the United Kingdom according to a survey conducted between May 31 and June 1, 2016 in Spain. **% of the respondents thought that the departure of the United Kingdom from the European Union would have a negative impact on the economy of the British.

The economic landscape of the United Kingdom has been significantly shaped by the intertwined issues of Brexit, COVID-19, and their interconnected impacts. Despite the country’s robust and diverse economy, the disruptions caused by Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic have created uncertainty and upheaval for both businesses and individuals. Recognizing the magnitude of these challenges, academic literature has directed its attention toward conducting immediate research in this crucial area. This study sets out to investigate key economic factors that have influenced various sectors of the UK economy and have broader economic implications within the context of Brexit and COVID-19. The factors under scrutiny include the unemployment rate, GDP index, earnings, and trade. To accomplish this, a range of data analysis tools and techniques were employed, including the Box-Jenkins method, neural network modeling, Google Trend analysis, and Twitter-sentiment analysis. The analysis encompassed different periods: pre-Brexit (2011-2016), Brexit (2016-2020), the COVID-19 period, and post-Brexit (2020-2021). The findings of the analysis offer intriguing insights spanning the past decade. For instance, the unemployment rate displayed a downward trend until 2020 but experienced a spike in 2021, persisting for a six-month period. Meanwhile, total earnings per week exhibited a gradual increase over time, and the GDP index demonstrated an upward trajectory until 2020 but declined during the COVID-19 period. Notably, trade experienced the most significant decline following both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the impact of these events exhibited variations across the UK’s four regions and twelve industries. Wales and Northern Ireland emerged as the regions most affected by Brexit and COVID-19, with industries such as accommodation, construction, and wholesale trade particularly impacted in terms of earnings and employment levels. Conversely, industries such as finance, science, and health demonstrated an increased contribution to the UK’s total GDP in the post-Brexit period, indicating some positive outcomes. It is worth highlighting that the impact of these economic factors was more pronounced on men than on women. Among all the variables analyzed, trade suffered the most severe consequences in the UK. By early 2021, the macroeconomic situation in the country was characterized by a simple dynamic: economic demand rebounded at a faster pace than supply, leading to shortages, bottlenecks, and inflation. The findings of this research carry significant value for the UK government and businesses, empowering them to adapt and innovate based on forecasts to navigate the challenges posed by Brexit and COVID-19. By doing so, they can promote long-term economic growth and effectively address the disruptions caused by these interrelated issues.

Find out how the UK economy is performing compared to its EU counterpart. From COVID-19 to Brexit, discover the main reasons why the UK is lagging behind.

This statistic shows the predicted effect of the “Brexit“ on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the United Kingdom (UK) in 2030, the results are sorted by scenario. The data suggests that the Brexit will have a negative impact on GDP by an minimum of **** percentage points by 2030.

This folder contains the data and codes used for the article: Di Iasio, V. and Wahba, J. (2023) Expecting Brexit and UK migration: Should I go? European Economic Review, 157:104484.

A previous version of the article: Di Iasio, V. and Wahba, J. (2021) Brexit uncertainty and UK migration: Should I go? QuantMig Project Deliverable D3.2. University of Southampton.

Included is a read_me,pdf file containing basic information for the replication and a data_files_location.pdf file that lists all the data files used in the analysis and their location.

A debate exists about the economic and cultural-based drivers of support for populism. In this paper, we argue that economic concerns matter, but they are realised through the relative gains and losses of social groups. Using new survey items in a large representative survey in Britain, we show that citizens’ economic assessments of the ethnic minority out-group - in relation to the group’s 12 months ago and to assessments of the economic conditions of the white British in-group - are a predictor of support for Brexit. Results, which are robust to prior referendum vote, immigration attitudes, and cultural sentiment, extend across income groups and national identity strength. Extending the analysis to a comparison of geographic in- and out-groups between local communities and London lends additional support to our argument. The implications of relative group-based economics are important for understanding Brexit and the economic sources of support for populism more broadly.

Combined dataset derived from various government sources (see below), allowing comparison of Brexit / EU referendum voting patterns by local authority and socio-economic demographic data. Contains data for Great Britain (England, Scotland, and Wales).

Original datasets:

EU Referendum Results - Electoral Commission

Rural Urban Classification (2011) of Local Authority Districts in England - Office for National Statistics

Population of the UK by country of birth and nationality (July 2015 to June 2016) - Office for National Statistics

2011 Census: KS201UK Ethnic group, local authorities in the United Kingdom - The National Archives

CC01 Regional labour market: Claimant Count by unitary and local authority (experimental) (20 July 2016) - Office for National Statistics

Regional GVA(I) by local authority in the UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates of the population for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (Mid-2016: Superseded) - Office for National Statistics

2011 Census: KS501UK Qualifications and students, local authorities in the United Kingdom - The National Archives

We explore the effect of the UK’s economic links with Central-Eastern Europe and China in the case of the Brexit referendum. First, we replicate and independently verify the Colantone and Stanig findings (2018a) on the effect of globalization on Brexit. Then, we extend their original analysis and demonstrate that although both Chinese and Central-Eastern European imports were significant causal determinants of the referendum’s outcome, exposure to Central-Eastern European imports was up to three times more important than exposure to Chinese imports. This may be due to cultural correlates of trade. Our analysis reveals that differences in media coverage between Central-Eastern European and Chinese economic news, as well as migrant population shares from these two regions, might have played a decisive role. Overall, the article also suggests that the import-shock method, as currently applied in the literature, is ill-suited to compare shocks with diverse origins.

A list of fast facts on the performance of each sector of the UK economy.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom was worth 3643.83 billion US dollars in 2024, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of the United Kingdom represents 3.43 percent of the world economy. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Regional popularity of Brexit and COVID-19 under the finance category.

Regional popularity of Brexit and COVID-19 under business and industrial category.

This statistic presents the estimated loss to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in a no-deal Brexit scenario by the year 2030. The United Kingdom (UK) is projected to lose *** percent of it's GDP in the event of a hard Brexit, with Ireland forecasted to lose almost the same at *** percent.

Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, gross domestic products (GDP) decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by 2021, growth rates were positive in all four areas again. The United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union all experiencing slow economic growth in 2023 amid high inflation, with Germany even seeing an economic recession. GDP and its components GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is composed of government spending, consumption, business investments and net exports. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country. Economists rely on a variety of factors when predicting the future performance of the GDP. Inflation rate is one of the economic indicators providing insight into the future behavior of households, which make up a significant proportion of GDP. Projections are based on the past performance of such information. Future considerations Some factors can be more easily predicted than others. For example, projections of the annual inflation rate of the United States are easy to come by. However, the intensity and impact of something like Brexit is difficult to predict. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine is difficult to foresee. Hence, actual GDP growth may be higher or lower than the original estimates.

This project uses interview data to investigate the implications, implementation and consequences of Brexit for UK universities, including the effects in relation to migration, international education and financial sustainability. The generic research questions are: 1) What are the perceived implications of Brexit for UK universities as leaders and others see it? 2) What are the principal responses of universities and what are their capabilities to monitor, judge, strategies, respond, initiate and make internal changes, in relation to Brexit? 3) How do these factors vary by UK nation; university mission, status, resources; and discipline? The dataset includes 124 semi-structured transcripts of semi-structured interviews conducted between November 2017 to September 2018. Participants were from 12 universities in the UK. This project is part of the ESRC’s 'The UK in a Changing Europe' initiative which supports research into the relationship between the UK and the European Union (EU).UK universities are extensively engaged in Europe, in collaborative research and infrastructure and through EU citizen staff and students. The UK’s departure from the EU has many potential consequences for UK universities and their staffing, research, international education and financial sustainability.

Brexit is an unprecedented development with implications in almost every domain of UK higher education (HE) and a range of possible forms and consequences for individual UK HEIs, with marked potential for differential effects (e.g. in research capability, international students, staffing, mission, income) across the variation of HEI types. Though Brexit has many possible forms, in any form it is likely to disrupt existing projects, networks and activities, and could imply sharp reductions in staff, students and/or income, in some or all HEIs. It also calls for new and innovative lines of institutional and discipline-based development on and off shore.In an uncertain and fast changing setting characterised by multiple possibilities and sudden shocks, HEIs will be required to monitor, respond, adjust, strategize, reorient and initiate with unprecedented speed and effectiveness; to build new relations and activity portfolios in Europe and beyond; and to grapple with new challenges to human resource management, risk management, financial sustainability, mission, governance and local implementation systems. This research investigates the policy implications, implementation and consequences of Brexit for UK HE, in two priority areas identified by the Economic and Social Research Council: implications of Brexit for migration, and impacts in the economy and future trade arrangements. UK higher education institutions (HEIs) are extensively engaged in Europe and in this sector EU relations have been unambiguously positive and productive. While there is a range of possible Brexit scenarios, UK HE is closely affected by the Brexit-related policy settings for staff mobility, retention and recruitment ('migration'); for international student policy and regulation, with consequences for tuition revenues and balance sheets ('trade'); and by the effects of Brexit in research relations between UK and European HEIs. Research papers co-authored with colleagues in Europe outweigh total papers co-authored with US and other English-speaking countries, more than 20 per cent of UK R&D funding is from international sources with much from collaborative European research schemes. The role of UK universities in Europe is central to their outstanding global research performance: UK accounts for 3.2 per cent of global R&D spending, 9.5 per cent of scientific papers downloaded, 11.6 per cent of citations, and 15.9 per cent of the most highly-cited papers. EU frameworks enable many UK researchers to lead, while sharing the best ideas and people from other EU member countries. The research capacity and reputation of UK HEIs also underpins the nation's role as the world's second largest exporter of international education after the US. The government has stated that it hopes to raise education exports by almost 50 per cent to 30 billion pa in 2020. The main data collection consists of qualitative case studies in 12 UK HEIs, with participating institutions selected from all four nations and illustrating the diversity of the sector. There are 127 semi-structured interviews, with senior academic leaders of HEIs, chief financial officers, heads of human resources, executive deans in three disciplines (health, science, social science), research professors from these disciplines, and student representatives. The project also conducted policy-oriented seminars which will have both data gathering and dissemination/public discussion purposes. The practical outcomes of the research are (a) through research, public events and briefings, to draw to the attention of policy makers and public the implications of different Brexit scenarios in higher education, (b) within HE, to investigate and make recommendations on the capacity of UK HEIs to respond effectively to the challenges triggered by Brexit under the different possible Brexit scenarios, in the context also of other policy developments (Office for Students, TEF).

The provided dataset contains financial and operational metrics spanning from January to September 2020 for a company operating in the UK. It reflects key aspects like revenue, expenses, profit, customer count, transactions, stock price, market sentiment, loan approval rate, employee count, and marketing spend.

London, as a part of the UK, likely shares these trends but could have its specific nuances due to being a distinct economic hub within the country. In this period:

1. Financial Performance: The company's revenue fluctuates throughout the months, peaking at £65,090 in June and dipping to £35,184 in July. Despite varying expenses, profits generally stay positive, showcasing resilience in managing costs against revenue. London, being a financial center, might witness higher revenue or fluctuations due to specific industries concentrated there.

2. Customer Engagement: Customer metrics show variation. Customer count ranges from 131 to 426, with transactions varying from 57 to 188. This indicates fluctuations in customer activity, potentially influenced by market trends, seasonal patterns, or even regional events.

3. Stock Performance: Stock prices show fluctuation, hitting a high of 138.53 and a low of 78.79. Market sentiment, indicating public confidence, also fluctuates, potentially influencing stock prices. London's stock market might reflect similar volatility but could be influenced by the performance of prominent companies headquartered there.

4. Business Operations: Loan approval rates stay relatively stable between 70% to 97%, indicating a consistent approach to risk management. Employee count remains somewhat constant, which could signify stable operations without significant expansion or downsizing.

5. Marketing and Growth: The company's marketing spend varies, suggesting a willingness to adapt strategies based on performance or seasonal demands. London might have higher marketing expenditures due to the competitive market and the need to stand out amidst numerous businesses.

6. Economic Impact: Economic factors affecting the UK market—Brexit discussions, global economic shifts, or even local policies—might influence these metrics. London, as a financial center, could be more sensitive to global economic changes, impacting revenue, market sentiment, and stock prices more profoundly.

7. Covid-19 Influence: Given the timeframe (2020), the dataset might reflect the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The varying metrics could illustrate the company's adaptation strategies in response to changing consumer behaviors and economic uncertainties.

In London specifically, these trends might amplify due to its prominence in finance, trade, and services. The city's diverse industries and international connections might lead to more pronounced fluctuations in financial indicators like stock prices and market sentiment. Moreover, its position as a global economic hub might expose businesses to unique challenges and opportunities, potentially reflected in the provided dataset.

Understanding London's specific dynamics within the UK would require deeper analysis, considering sector-specific influences, competitive landscape, and regional economic factors. Nevertheless, this dataset offers insights into the company's adaptability and performance within the broader context of the UK's economic landscape.

This statistic displays British public opinion concerning the effect of the Brexit on the economy of the United Kingdom, by age. ** percent of respondents between the ages of 18-34 regard the UK economy as being much better off if the UK remains in the EU, whereas ** percent of respondents over the age of ** agreed.

Summarizes the descriptive statistics of the four main UK’s economic factors analysed in this paper in all the 42 quarters between the years 2011–2021.