Each month we publish independent forecasts of key economic and fiscal indicators for the UK economy. Forecasts before 2010 are hosted by The National Archives.

We began publishing comparisons of independent forecasts in 1986. The first database brings together selected variables from those publications, averaged across forecasters. It includes series for Gross Domestic Product, the Consumer Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index, the Retail Prices Index excluding mortgage interest payments, Public Sector Net Borrowing and the Claimant Count. Our second database contains time series of independent forecasts for GDP growth, private consumption, government consumption, fixed investment, domestic demand and net trade, for 26 forecasters with at least 10 years’ worth of submissions since 2010.

We’d welcome feedback on how you find the database and any extra information that you’d like to see included. Email your comments to Carter.Adams@hmtreasury.gov.uk.

Headline findings

Reported DCMS Sector GVA is estimated to have fallen by 0.4% from Quarter 2 (April to June) to Quarter 3 2022 (July to September) in real terms. By comparison, the whole UK economy fell by 0.2% from Quarter 2 to Quarter 3 2022.

GVA of reported DCMS Sectors in September 2022 was 6% above February 2020 levels, which was the most recent month not significantly affected by the pandemic. By comparison, GVA for the whole UK economy was 0.2% lower than in February 2020.

Released

16 November 2022

About this release

Monthly estimates

These Economic Estimates are Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the economic contribution of DCMS Sectors in terms of gross value added (GVA), for the period January 2019 to September 2022. Provisional monthly GVA in 2019 and 2020 was first published in March 2021 as an ad hoc statistical release. This current release contains new figures for July to September 2022 and revised estimates for previous months, in line with the scheduled revisions that were made to the underlying ONS datasets in October 2022.

Estimates are in chained volume measures (i.e. have been adjusted for inflation), at 2019 prices, and are seasonally adjusted. These latest monthly estimates should only be used to illustrate general trends, not used as definitive figures.

You can use these estimates to:

• Look at relative indicative changes in GVA over time for DCMS sectors and subsectors

You should not use these estimates to:

• Quantify GVA for a specific month
• Measure absolute change in GVA over time
• Determine findings for DCMS sectors that are defined using more detailed industrial classes (due to the data sources only being available at broader industry levels)

“Summed monthly” Annual GVA

Estimates of annual GVA by DCMS Sectors, based on the monthly series, are included in this release for 2019 to 2021. These are calculated by summing the monthly estimates for the calendar year and were first published for 2019 and 2020 in DCMS Sector National Economic Estimates: 2011 - 2020.

Since August 2022, we have been publishing these estimates as part of the regular published series of GVA data, with data being revised in line with revisions to the underlying ONS datasets, as with the monthly GVA estimates. These estimates have been published, updating what was first published last year, in order to meet growing demand for annual figures for GVA beyond the 2019 estimates in our National Statistics GVA publication. The National Statistics GVA publication estimates remain the most robust for our sectors, however estimates for years after 2019 have been delayed owing to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Consequently, these “summed monthly” annual estimate figures for GVA can be used but should not be seen as definitive.

Data sources

The findings are calculated based on published ONS data sources including the Index of Services and Index of Production.

These data sources provide an estimate of the monthly change in GVA for all UK industries. However, the data is only available for broader industry groups, whereas DCMS sectors are defined at a more detailed industrial level. For example, GVA for ‘Cultural education’ is estimated based on the trend for all education. Sectors such as ‘Cultural education’ may have been affected differently by COVID-19 compared to education in general. These estimates are also based on the composition of the economy in 2019. Overall, this means the accuracy of monthly GVA for DCMS sectors is likely to be lower for months in 2020 and 2021.

The technical guidance contains further information about data sources, methodology, and the validation and accuracy of these estimates.

Revisions

Figures are provisional and subject to revision on a monthly basis when the ONS Index of Services and Index of Production are updated. Figures for the latest month will be highly uncertain.

An example of the impact of these revisions is highlighted in the following example; for the revisions applied in February 2022 the average change to DCMS sector monthly GVA was 0.6%, but there were larger differences for some sectors, in some months e.g. the value of the Sport sector in May 2021 was revised from £1.

Headline findings

• Provisionally, the Digital Sector GVA decreased by an estimated 1.6% between 2022 and 2023, while accounting for inflation. Total UK GVA is estimated to have increased by 0.4% over the same period.
• Provisionally, inflation-adjusted estimated growth for the Digital Sector GVA between 2019 and 2023 was 13.7%.
• Revised, inflation-adjusted, estimated growth for the Digital Sector GVA between 2019 and 2022 was 15.6%. This is 6.5 percentage points higher than the 9.1% growth reported previously in provisional estimates. This update brings Digital Sector GVA figures more in line with National Accounts data.
• The Digital Sector is provisionally estimated to have accounted for 6.5% of total UK GVA in 2023 at £153.5 billion in current prices, decreasing from an estimated 6.8% of total UK GVA in 2022.
• From 2022 to 2023, notable changes to Digital subsector GVA include a 6.7% decrease in the largest Digital subsector ‘Computer programming, consultancy and related activities’ and an 8.6% increase in the second largest Digital subsector ‘Telecommunications’.

About this release

This Annual GVA series is our most accurate estimate of Digital Sector GVA. These Economic Estimates are Accredited Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the contribution of the Digital Sector and its associated subsectors to the UK, measured by GVA (gross value added).

This is the first release of provisional annual estimates for 2023, and Blue Book 2024 inclusive revisions to 2019 to 2022 annual estimates. The provisional Annual GVA estimates for 2023 for the Digital Sector will be revised in our next release, upon updates to underlying ABS data, and further revised in the following statistical release to include Blue Book 2025 revisions. Our next release is planned to include a full analytical report providing additional analysis on our produced GVA estimates.

This release includes a methodology update to the deflators used to remove the effects of inflation in our chained volume measure estimates. A summary of the revisions to 2019 to 2022 estimates as part of this release can be found in the accompanying revisions report.

This is a continuation of the Digital Sector Economic Estimates: Annual GVA release series, previously produced by the Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS). Responsibility for Digital and Telecommunications policy now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT).

Data sources and technical information

Findings in this release are calculated based on the published Office for National Statistics (ONS) https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/supplyandusetables/datasets/supplyanduseofproductsandindustrygvaukexperimental" class="govuk-link">Supply and Use Tables, ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/datasets/ukgdpolowlevelaggregates" class="govuk-link">Gross Domestic Product (GDP) low-level aggregates and the ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/methodologies/annualbusinesssurveyabs" class="govuk-link">Annual Business Survey (ABS).

The Supply and Use Tables (SUT) report balanced GVA at the 2-digit Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code level up to 2022. SUT <abbr title="Gross V

Headline findings

All estimates in this release are presented in 2022 prices and in chained volume measures. Estimates are provisional and subject to planned revisions. The index of estimated monthly GVA shows the growth or decline of the Digital Sector and its subsectors relative to January 2019.

This current release contains new monthly figures for April 2024 to June 2024 and minor revisions for January 2024 to March 2024.

Estimates of monthly GVA (£ million) are used to determine percentage changes over the relevant time periods mentioned here.

• Estimated monthly GVA for the Digital Sector increased by 1.1% between March 2024 and June 2024, while the GVA of the UK is estimated to have increased by 0.4% over the same period.
• Based on these estimates, the Digital Sector accounted for 7.2% of total UK GVA in June 2024, down from 7.4% in June 2023.
• In our Economic Estimates: Digital Sector Monthly GVA (to March 2024) release we reported a 0.2% increase in Digital Sector GVA from December 2023 to March 2024. As part of planned revisions to the underlying data in this release, this change in Digital Sector GVA has been revised down to a 0.2% decrease from December 2023 to March 2024.
• These same revised figures estimate that monthly Digital Sector GVA decreased by 1.8% in the 12 months between March 2023 and March 2024 whilst, over the same period, the estimate for the total UK GVA increased by 0.9%.

Released

26 September 2024

About this release

This is a continuation of the Digital Economic Estimates: Monthly GVA series, previously produced by Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS). Responsibility for Digital Sector policy now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT).

Monthly estimates

These estimates are Official Statistics, used to provide an estimate of the economic contribution of the Digital Sector, in terms of Gross Value Added (GVA), for the period January 2019 to June 2024. This current release contains new monthly figures for April 2024 to June 2024 and minor revisions for January 2024 to March 2024.

Estimates are presented in chained volume measures (i.e. have been adjusted for inflation), at 2022 prices, and are seasonally adjusted. These latest monthly estimates should only be used to illustrate general trends, not used as definitive figures.

You can use these estimates to:

• Look at relative indicative changes in GVA over time for the Digital Sector and subsectors

You should not use these estimates to:

• Quantify GVA for a specific month
• Measure absolute change in GVA over time
• Determine findings for sectors that are defined using more detailed industrial classes (due to the data sources only being available at broader industry levels)

Data sources and technical information

These findings are calculated based on published Office for National Statistics (ONS) data sources including the Index of Services and Index of Production.

These data sources are available for industrial ‘divisions’, whereas the Digital Sector is defined using more detailed industrial ‘classes’. This represents a significant limitation to this statistical series; the implications of which are discussed furt

About

These Economic Estimates are accredited official statistics used to provide an estimate of the contribution of DCMS sectors to the UK economy, measured by GVA (gross value added). This release includes annual estimates for 2010 to 2022, and provisional annual estimates for 2023.

This year, we have seen substantial revisions to GVA estimates for DCMS sectors to previously published data to 2022. This is due to revisions made by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to the underlying data which these estimates are based on. GVA estimates are subject to scheduled revisions as more and higher quality data becomes available, and more information about this is available in the ONS article on https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/gdprevisionsinbluebook2020/2024" class="govuk-link">GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2024. Further information of the impact of these revisions on DCMS sector GVA is available in the technical report above.

This is the full release and report of our Annual GVA publication, updating the tables-only release published on 19 December 2024 that was brought forward following the impact of scheduled ONS revisions in the National Accounts Blue Book 2024 on GVA estimates for DCMS sectors. This release includes new estimates for tourism and DCMS overall, and a report on the latest estimates.

There are limitations when comparing tourism GVA estimates over time. Estimates of tourism GVA from 2016 to 2021 are based on unrevised data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Tourism Satellite Account (TSA). The ONS does not make revisions to TSA estimates, however the underlying source data including GVA estimates, may be revised in future years. There are also differences in the data sources used for each TSA, which are outlined in the notes section of each https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/datasets/uktourismsatelliteaccounttsatables" class="govuk-link">individual TSA published by the ONS. Further information is available in the report and in the technical report.

Content

DCMS sectors

These statistics cover the contributions of the following DCMS sectors to the UK economy;

• civil society
• creative industries
• cultural sector
• gambling
• sport
• tourism

Users should note that there is overlap between DCMS sector definitions and that several cultural sector industries are simultaneously creative industries.

The release also includes estimates for the audio visual sector and computer games subsector.

We have separately published ad hoc statistics for the art and antiques market. Annual GVA estimates for the art and antiques market have been published here alongside economic estimates on employment and trade.

Headline findings:

Provisional 2023 estimates show that:

• GVA in DCMS sectors was estimated to be £220.3 billion, contributing 9.3% to UK GVA.
• GVA in the DCMS sectors increased by an estimated 0.1% compared to 2022, while the UK as a whole grew by 0.3%.
• The slight growth in DCMS sector GVA from 2022 to 2023 was driven by the tourism sector (+8.5%); there was also growth from 2022 to 2023 in the sport sector (+2.2%) and in civil society (+2.3%). There was a drop in GVA from 2022 to 2023 in the other DCMS sectors: creative industries (-3.3%), cultural sector (-1.8%) and gambling sector (-4.5%).
• Compared to pre-pandemic (2019), DCMS sector GVA fell by an estimated 9.0%, compared to 2.6% growth for the UK economy as a whole. This drop was driven by tourism, which remained 30.2% lower than 2019 in 2023. If the tourism sector is excluded, DCMS sector GVA grew by an estimated 0.8% from 2019 to 2023.
• Compared with 2016, DCMS sector GVA fell by an estimated 2.0%, while the UK economy as a whole grew by 8.7%. This fall was driven by the tourism sector, which was particularly affected by the pandemic and decreased by an estimated 21.9% between 2016 and 2023. If the tourism sector is excluded, DCMS sector GVA grew by an estimated 6.7% from 2016 to 2023.
• Between 2010 and 2023, DCMS sectors (excluding tourism due to data availability) grew at a faster rate than the UK economy as a whole (32.3% compared to 22.3%). This was driven mostly by the creative industries which increased by 35.4% over this time.

This year, we have seen substantial revisions to GVA estimates for DCMS sectors to previously published data to 2022.

Further information about these revisions, including how the latest 2022 figures comp

Headline findings

DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism)

In June 2023, GVA of reported DCMS sectors increased at a greater rate than the UK as a whole. GVA of the included DCMS Sectors grew by around 1.0% compared to May 2023, while the UK as a whole grew by 0.5%. This followed a 0.1% estimated growth in DCMS Sectors in April (up 0.2% in the whole UK economy) and a 0.9% estimated increase in May (0.1% decrease for the whole UK economy).

GVA of reported DCMS Sectors (excluding Tourism) in June 2023 was 10% above February 2020 levels, which was the most recent month prior to pandemic measures being introduced in the UK. By comparison, GVA for the whole UK economy was 0.8% higher than in February 2020.

Digital and Telecoms sectors

In June 2023, Digital Sector GVA grew by around 1% from May 2023, while GVA for the UK economy grew by less (0.5%). This increase followed a 0.9% increase for the Digital Sector in April (up 0.2% for the whole UK economy) and a 0.2% estimated increase in May (0.1% decrease for the whole UK economy).

GVA by the Digital Sector in March 2023 was 15% above February 2020 levels, which was the most recent month prior to pandemic measures being introduced in the UK. By comparison, GVA for the whole UK economy was 0.8% higher than in February 2020.

Released

16 August 2023

About this release

The DCMS Sector total reported here includes Civil Society, Creative Industries, Cultural Sector, Gambling and Sport. Tourism is not included as the data is not yet available (see note in data table). Figures for the Digital Sector and Telecoms are presented separately as responsibility for these policy areas now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology.

Monthly estimates

These Economic Estimates are Official Statistics used to provide an estimate of the economic contribution of DCMS Sectors, and of the Digital Sector, in terms of gross value added (GVA), for the period January 2019 to June 2023. This current release contains new figures for April to June 2023.

Estimates are in chained volume measures (i.e. have been adjusted for inflation), at 2019 prices, and are seasonally adjusted. These latest monthly estimates should only be used to illustrate general trends, not used as definitive figures.

You can use these estimates to:

• Look at relative indicative changes in GVA over time for DCMS sectors and subsectors (and, respectively, for the Digital Sector and sub-sectors)

You should not use these estimates to:

• Quantify GVA for a specific month
• Measure absolute change in GVA over time
• Determine findings for sectors that are defined using more detailed industrial classes (due to the data sources only being available at broader industry levels)

Data sources and Technical information

The findings are calculated based on published ONS data sources including the Index of Services and Index of Production.

These data sources provide an estimate of the monthly change in GVA for all UK industries. However, the data is only available for broader industry groups, whereas DCMS sectors, and the Digital Sector, are respectively defined at a more detailed industrial level. For example, GVA for ‘Cultural education’ (a sub-sector of the Cultural Sector within the DCMS Sectors) is estimated based on the trend for all education. Sectors such as ‘Cultural education’ may have been affected differently by COVID-19 compared to education in general. These estimates are also based on the composition of the economy in 2019. Overall, this means the accuracy of monthly GVA for DCMS sectors is likely to be lower for months in 2020 and 2021.

The technical guidance contains further information about data sources, methodology, and the validation and accuracy of these estimates. The latest version of this guidance was published in November 2022. The only significant change since then is that figures for the Digital Sector and Telecoms are now presented separately as responsibility for these policy areas now sits with the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology.

Content

These statistics cover the contributions of the following sectors to the UK economy.

DCMS Sectors:

• Civil Society
• Creative Industries
• Cultural Sector
• Gambling
• Sport

Users should note that there is overlap between DCMS sector definitions