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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 0.30 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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TwitterIn 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by 0.9 percent and is expected to grow by just one percent in 2025 and by 1.9 percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2027, and then grow by 1.7, and 1.8 percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge 9.4 percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by 7.6 percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the one percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from two percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of 3.2 percent predicated, up from 2.6 percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be 4.5 percent instead of 4.1 percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in Q3 and by 0.3 percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.
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TwitterForecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
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TwitterThe UK economy grew by 0.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025, compared with 0.7 percent growth in the previous quarter. After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy grew strongly in the first half of 2024, growing by 0.9 percent in Q1, and 0.5 percent in Q2, with growth slowing in the second half of the year. In the third quarter of 2020 the UK experienced record setting growth of 16.8 percent, which itself followed the record 20.3 percent contraction in Q2 2020. Growing economy key to Labour's plans Since winning the 2024 general election, the UK's Labour Party have seen their popularity fall substantially. In February 2025, the government's approval rating fell to a low of -54 percent, making them almost as disliked as the Conservatives just before the last election. A string of unpopular policies since taking office have taken a heavy toll on support for the government. Labour hope they can reverse their declining popularity by growing the economy, which has underperformed for several years, and when measured in GDP per capita, fell in 2023, and 2024. Steady labor market trends set to continue? After a robust 2022, the UK labor market remained resilient throughout 2023 and 2024. The unemployment rate at the end of 2024 was 4.4 percent, up from four percent at the start of the year, but still one of the lowest rates on record. While the average number of job vacancies has been falling since a May 2022 peak, there was a slight increase in January 2025 when compared with the previous month. The more concerning aspect of the labor market, from the government's perspective, are the high levels of economic inactivity due to long-term sickness, which reached a peak of 2.84 million in late 2023, and remained at high levels throughout 2024.
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TwitterIn the second quarter of 2025, the quarterly gross domestic product of the United Kingdom was approximately, 705 billion British pounds, compared with around 703 billion pounds in the previous quarter. The large dip in GDP that can be seen in the second quarter of 2020 saw the UK economy fall from 652 billion pounds to 522 billion, with more usual levels of output not recovering until well into 2021. The COVID-19 lockdowns enacted by the UK government at that time was the main reason for this large fall in GDP. Growth lagging as UK heads into 2025 After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy started 2024 with the strongest quarterly GDP growth in several years, growing by 0.7 percent in the first quarter, and then by 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Economic growth in the second half of the year was, however, far less promising, with GDP flatlining in the third quarter, and monthly GDP shrinking by 0.1 percent in September and then again in October. Although GDP is still forecast to grow in 2025, the overall economic picture is precarious. In November, UK inflation rose to 2.6 percent, compared with just 1.7 percent in September, while the labor market continues to show signs of cooling after a period of high job vacancies and low unemployment. Labour pinning hopes on long-term growth After winning its first general election in 19 years in 2024, the Labour Government has seen its approval ratings plummet in its first few months in office. This shaky start is partly due to a government strategy of making unpopular decisions early in their tenure, which they hope will eventually encourage stable economic growth in the mid to long-term. By far the least popular policy was the withdrawal of winter fuel benefits for a significant number of pensioners, a cost-cutting measure deemed necessary due to the UK's vulnerable public finance position, with government debt at around 100 percent of GDP. A further measure introduced was a national insurance tax increase for employers, with almost half of UK firms citing increased taxes as their main external concern in Q3 2024. Avoiding any further tax rises or cuts to services will depend on if policies in other areas, such as planning reform, will kickstart the UK economy in time before the next election.
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Key information about United Kingdom Real GDP Growth
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 1.40 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
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TwitterIn January 2025, the UK's gross value added (GVA) increased by 1.2 percent when compared with the same period in 2023. During this time period, the fastest growth was in the transportation and storage sector, which grew by 8.2 percent. By contrast, GVA in the sector of 'other service activities' shrank by 4.7 percent.
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TwitterIn July 2025, output in UK agriculture grew by 0.5 percent, with construction growing by 0.2 percent, and services by 0.1 percent. In this month, production output fell by 0.9 percent.
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Key information about United Kingdom Investment: % of GDP
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Key information about United Kingdom Nominal GDP
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Key information about UK Public Consumption: % of GDP
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TwitterAs of July 2025, UK construction output as measured by gross value added was 5.1 percent larger than it was in 2022, while agriculture output has grown by 5.2 percent, and service output by 3.5 percent. By comparison, production output has fallen by 2.4 percent.
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The UK unveils ambitious AI and data center expansion plans to drive economic growth and establish itself as a global AI leader, featuring new supercomputing initiatives and expedited development processes.
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Key information about UK GDP Deflator Growth
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TwitterThe United Kingdom's economy grew by 1.1 percent in 2024, after a growth rate of 0.3 percent in 2023, 5.1 percent in 2022, 8.5 percent in 2021, and a record ten percent fall in 2020. During the provided time period, the biggest annual fall in gross domestic product before 2020 occurred in 2009, when the UK economy contracted by 4.6 percent at the height of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Before 2021, the year with the highest annual GDP growth rate was 1973, when the UK economy grew by 6.5 percent. UK economy growing but GDP per capita falling In 2022, the UK's GDP per capita amounted to approximately 37,371 pounds, with this falling to 37,028 pounds in 2023, and 36,977 pounds in 2024. While the UK economy as a whole grew during this time, the UK's population grew at a faster rate, resulting in the negative growth in GDP per capita. This suggests the UK economy's struggles with productivity are not only stagnating, but getting worse. The relatively poor economic performance of the UK in recent years has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, with the economy consistently seen as the most important issue for voters since 2022. Recent shocks to UK economy In the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy shrank by a record 20.3 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a relatively swift economic recovery initially, the economy has struggled to grow much beyond its pre-pandemic size, and was only around 3.1 percent larger in December 2024, when compared with December 2019. Although the labor market has generally been quite resilient during this time, a long twenty-month period between 2021 and 2023 saw prices rise faster than wages, and inflation surge to a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022.
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Money Supply M2 in the United Kingdom decreased to 3133659 GBP Million in August from 3137956 GBP Million in July of 2025. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Money Supply M2 - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
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The UK retail banking market, valued at approximately £68.77 billion in 2025, is projected to experience steady growth, driven by several key factors. The increasing adoption of digital banking solutions, including online platforms and mobile apps, is significantly impacting market dynamics. Consumers are increasingly demanding convenient and personalized financial services, prompting banks to invest heavily in technological upgrades and user-friendly interfaces. Furthermore, the rise of fintech companies is fostering competition and innovation, leading to the introduction of new products and services, such as mobile payment systems and personalized financial management tools. While Brexit initially presented challenges, the market has shown resilience, with banks adapting to new regulatory environments and focusing on strengthening customer relationships. The segment showing the strongest growth is likely online banking, driven by younger demographics' preference for digital interactions and increased smartphone penetration. However, the market also faces constraints such as increasing regulatory scrutiny, cybersecurity threats, and the need for continuous investment in technology to maintain a competitive edge. Growth in the wealth management segment will also contribute to the overall market expansion, fueled by a rising affluent population and increasing demand for sophisticated investment services. The continued expansion of the market is expected to be spread across multiple channels, reflecting the diverse preferences of UK consumers. The projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.45% suggests a consistent, albeit moderate, expansion of the UK retail banking market over the forecast period (2025-2033). This growth is likely to be influenced by macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, inflation, and interest rates. The market's segmentation highlights the diverse nature of customer needs, with significant opportunities for banks to cater to specific demographics, such as high-net-worth individuals and small businesses. Strategic partnerships with fintech companies and the development of innovative financial products tailored to specific segments will play a crucial role in determining future market leaders. The continued dominance of established players such as HSBC, Barclays, and Lloyds Banking Group is anticipated, but they will likely face increased competition from challenger banks and international players. The overall market outlook remains positive, contingent upon maintaining macroeconomic stability and sustained consumer confidence. This in-depth report provides a comprehensive analysis of the UK retail banking market, covering the period from 2019 to 2033. It delves into market dynamics, competitive landscapes, and future growth projections, providing invaluable insights for businesses and investors operating within or considering entry into this dynamic sector. The report utilizes data from the historical period (2019-2024), with a base year of 2025 and a forecast period spanning 2025-2033. The study highlights key trends, challenges, and opportunities within the £XXX million market. Recent developments include: August 2024: Lloyds Bank launched a USD 137 cash offer for students opening current accounts. To qualify, students must deposit at least USD 622 between August 1 and October 31, 2024. Student account holders will also receive a 20% discount on selected Student Union events and can earn 2% interest on balances up to USD 6,219.September 2023: HSBC pioneered a partnership with Nova Credit, making it the first UK bank to allow newcomers to access their credit history from abroad. This initiative aims to facilitate smoother financial integration for individuals relocating to the United Kingdom.. Key drivers for this market are: The Shift Toward Digital Banking, with Customers Increasingly Using Online and Mobile Banking Services. Potential restraints include: The Shift Toward Digital Banking, with Customers Increasingly Using Online and Mobile Banking Services. Notable trends are: Deposit Trends and Digital Transformation Driving Traditional Banking.
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The United Kingdom's Information and Communications Technology (ICT) market is experiencing robust growth, projected to maintain a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.80% from 2025 to 2033. This expansion is fueled by several key drivers. Increasing digitalization across all sectors, from BFSI (Banking, Financial Services, and Insurance) to retail and e-commerce, is a significant catalyst. Government initiatives promoting digital infrastructure development and the adoption of advanced technologies like 5G and cloud computing are further accelerating market growth. The thriving enterprise software market, driven by the need for enhanced operational efficiency and data analytics, contributes substantially to the overall ICT market value. Furthermore, the growing adoption of IoT (Internet of Things) solutions across various industries promises to fuel future expansion. The market is segmented by type (hardware, software, IT services, telecommunication services), enterprise size (SMEs and large enterprises), and industry vertical, reflecting the diverse applications of ICT across the UK economy. Competition is intense, with both established global players like Cisco, Huawei, and Nokia, and regional providers vying for market share. While the UK ICT market presents significant opportunities, certain challenges exist. Concerns around cybersecurity and data privacy are paramount, demanding robust security measures and compliance frameworks. The potential skills gap in the ICT sector could hinder the pace of innovation and adoption of new technologies. Furthermore, economic fluctuations and geopolitical factors can influence investment decisions and overall market growth. Despite these potential restraints, the long-term outlook remains positive, driven by the UK's commitment to digital transformation and the continuous evolution of ICT technologies. Based on the provided CAGR of 7.8%, and estimating a 2025 market size of £50 billion (approximately $62 billion USD, a reasonable estimate considering the size of the UK economy and global ICT market trends), the market is expected to surpass £70 billion by 2033. This estimation considers the potential impact of both growth drivers and restraining factors. Recent developments include: September 2022 - Kick ICT Group Ltd acquired Consilium UK Ltd. Consequently, the Group's technical division has grown and improved, expanding the portfolio of IT products, services, and support available to both the Enterprise and SME sectors. Kick's takeover of a technical services provider with a presence in London is a crucial strategic move in the company's continuous expansion plan., July 2022 - The UK Telecoms Innovation Network received a GBP 10 million grant (UKTIN), a new entity mainly devoted to encouraging and boosting creativity in the country's telecoms supply chain., February 2022 - ZTE Corporation, the global supplier of telecommunications, consumer, and enterprise technology solutions for the mobile internet, announced the series of new 5G products and solutions at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Spain. The latest products and solutions demonstrate ZTE's strong commitment to establishing the 5G network with energy efficiency, accelerating industry digital transformation with all-in-one private networks, and running complicated networks with simplicity.. Key drivers for this market are: Rapid Surge in Demand for Software as a Service (SaaS), Rise in Need of Digital Technology in Healthcare. Potential restraints include: Rapid Surge in Demand for Software as a Service (SaaS), Rise in Need of Digital Technology in Healthcare. Notable trends are: Telecommunication Sector is expected to Hold the Substantial Market Share.
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Key information about United Kingdom Private Consumption: % of GDP
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 0.30 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.