Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
The UK economy grew by 0.4 percent in May 2025 after shrinking by 0.1 percent in May. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 4.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.
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The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 0.30 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
Official statistics are produced impartially and free from political influence.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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Monthly GDP MoM in the United Kingdom increased to 0.40 percent in June from -0.10 percent in May of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom Monthly GDP MoM.
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Monthly data on the UK's trade in goods and services, including trade inside and outside the EU. This replaces our previous dataset, UK trade: goods and services (up until July 2018).
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
License information was derived automatically
Quarterly transactions in trade in goods and services, primary, secondary and investment income, transactions with EU and non-EU countries and capital account.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
Monthly GDP YoY in the United Kingdom increased to 1.40 percent in June from 0.90 percent in May of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom Monthly GDP YoY.
The UK inflation rate was 3.6 percent in June 2025, up from 3.4 percent in the previous month, and the fastest rate of inflation since January 2024. Between September 2022 and March 2023, the UK experienced seven months of double-digit inflation, which peaked at 11.1 percent in October 2022. Due to this long period of high inflation, UK consumer prices have increased by over 20 percent in the last three years. As of the most recent month, prices were rising fastest in the communications sector, at 6.1 percent, but were falling in both the furniture and transport sectors, at -0.3 percent and -0.6 percent, respectively.
The Cost of Living Crisis
High inflation is one of the main factors behind the ongoing Cost of Living Crisis in the UK, which, despite subsiding somewhat in 2024, is still impacting households going into 2025. In December 2024, for example, 56 percent of UK households reported their cost of living was increasing compared with the previous month, up from 45 percent in July, but far lower than at the height of the crisis in 2022. After global energy prices spiraled that year, the UK's energy price cap increased substantially. The cap, which limits what suppliers can charge consumers, reached 3,549 British pounds per year in October 2022, compared with 1,277 pounds a year earlier. Along with soaring food costs, high-energy bills have hit UK households hard, especially lower income ones that spend more of their earnings on housing costs. As a result of these factors, UK households experienced their biggest fall in living standards in decades in 2022/23.
Global inflation crisis causes rapid surge in prices
The UK's high inflation, and cost of living crisis in 2022 had its origins in the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the initial waves of the virus, global supply chains struggled to meet the renewed demand for goods and services. Food and energy prices, which were already high, increased further in 2022. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 brought an end to the era of cheap gas flowing to European markets from Russia. The war also disrupted global food markets, as both Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of cereal crops. As a result of these factors, inflation surged across Europe and in other parts of the world, but typically declined in 2023, and approached more usual levels by 2024.
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
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Quarterly estimates of national product, income and expenditure, sector accounts and balance of payments.
Official statistics are produced impartially and free from political influence.
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
License information was derived automatically
Quarterly estimates of total trade, trade in goods, and trade in services by country, seasonally adjusted.
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Economic Activity Index in the United Kingdom decreased to 6.90 percent in August from 8.80 percent in July of 2021. This dataset provides - United Kingdom GDP YoY- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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Economic growth, quarterly in the United Kingdom, June, 2025 The most recent value is 0.3 percent as of Q2 2025, a decline compared to the previous value of 0.7 percent. Historically, the average for the United Kingdom from Q1 1960 to Q2 2025 is 0.57 percent. The minimum of -20.3 percent was recorded in Q2 2020, while the maximum of 16.8 percent was reached in Q3 2020. | TheGlobalEconomy.com
Official statistics are produced impartially and free from political influence.
In July 2025, the UK inflation rate for goods was 2.7 percent and five percent for services. Prices for goods accelerated significantly, sharply between 2021 and 2022, before falling in 2023. By comparison, prices for services initially grew at a more moderate rate but have also not fallen as quickly. The overall CPI inflation rate for the UK reached a recent high of 11.1 percent in October 2022 and remained in double figures until April 2023, when it fell to 8.7 percent. As of this month, the UK's inflation rate was 3.6 percent, up from 3.4 percent in the previous month. Sectors driving high inflation In late 2024, communication was the sector with the highest inflation rate, with prices increasing by 6.1 percent as of December 2024. During the recent period of high inflation that eased in 2023, food and energy prices were particular high, with housing and energy inflation far higher than in any other sector, peaking at 26.6 percent towards the end of 2022. High food and energy prices since 2021 have been one of the main causes of the cost of living crisis in the UK, especially for low-income households that spend a higher share of their income on these categories. This is likely one of the factors driving increasing food bank usage in the UK, which saw approximately 3.12 million people use a food bank in 2023/24, compared with 1.9 million just before the COVID-19 pandemic. The global inflation crisis The UK has not been alone in suffering rapid price increases since 2021. After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of economic and geopolitical shocks had a dramatic impact on the global economy. A global supply chain crisis failed to meet rising demand in 2021, leading to the beginning of an Inflation Crisis, which was only exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war directly influenced the prices of food and energy, as both countries were major exporters of important crops. European imports of hydrocarbons from Russia were also steadily reduced throughout 2022 and 2023, resulting in higher energy prices throughout the year.
In 2024, gross domestic product per capita in the United Kingdom was 37,044 British pounds, compared with 37,033 pounds in the previous year. In general, while GDP per capita has grown quite consistently throughout this period, there are noticeable declines, especially between 2007 and 2009, and between 2019 and 2020, due to the Global Financial Crisis, and COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. Why is GDP per capita stagnating when the economy is growing? During the last two years that GDP per capita fell and then stagnated in the UK, the overall economy grew by 0.4 percent in 2023 and 1.1 percent in 2024. While the overall UK economy is therefore larger than it was in 2022, the UK's population has grown at a faster rate, resulting in the lower GDP per capita figure. The long-term slump in the UK's productivity, as measured by output per hour worked, has meant that the gap between GDP growth and GDP per capita growth has been widening for some time. Economy remains the main concern of UK voters As of February 2025, the economy was seen as the main issue facing the UK, just ahead of immigration, health, and several other problems in the country. While Brexit was seen as the most important issue before COVID-19, and concerns about health were dominant throughout 2020 and 2021, the economy has generally been the primary facing voters issue since 2022. The surge in inflation throughout 2022 and 2023, and the impact this had on wages and living standards, resulted in a very tough period for UK households. As of January 2025, 57 percent of households were still noticing rising living costs, although this is down from a peak of 91 percent in August 2022.
Official statistics are produced impartially and free from political influence.
Between February and April 2021, the weekly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate increased sharply in the United Kingdom. After April 2021, however, it started to decrease significantly, until July 2021. In the following period, the GDP maintained a relatively stable weekly growth rate, and increased to ***** percent at the beginning of 2022. From January 2022 onwards, it started a gradual decrease, and reached its lowest rate during December 2022. This was followed by a period of sharp fluctuations between January and April 2023.
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The GLA undertakes regular polling of Londoners' views. The results from these polls appear on this page. December 2017 – Rail services Link to PDF of topline (PDF) November 2017 – Workplace equality Link to PDF of topline (PDF) November 2017 - YouGov/GLA poll results Link to PDF of topline (PDF) October 2017 - YouGov/GLA poll results Link to PDF of topline (PDF) September 2017 – Keeping Londoners safe Link to PDF of topline (PDF) August 2017 – World Athletics Championships Link to PDF of topline (PDF) July 2017 – World Para-athletics Championships Link to PDF of topline (PDF) July 2017 – Food Link to PDF of topline (PDF) June 2017 – YouGov/GLA poll results Link to PDF of topline (PDF) June 2017 – YouGov/GLA poll results Link to PDF of topline (PDF) April 2017 – YouGov/GLA poll results Link to PDF of topline (PDF) March 2017 – Contacting City Hall Link to PDF of topline (PDF) February 2017 – YouGov/GLA poll results Link to PDF of topline (PDF) February 2017 – YouGov/GLA poll results Link to PDF of topline (PDF) January 2017 – YouGov/GLA poll results Link to PDF of topline (PDF) December 2016 – YouGov/GLA poll results Link to PDF of topline (PDF) December 2016 – Transport Link to PDF of topline (PDF) November 2016 – YouGov/GLA poll results Link to PDF of topline (PDF) October 2016 – Public spending and taxation Link to PDF of topline (PDF) Link to analysis of results (PDF) August 2016 – Promoting London Abroad Link to PDF of topline (PDF) August 2016 – Pubs and Clubs Link to PDF of topline (PDF) July 2016 – Devolution Link to PDF of topline (PDF) March 2016 – congestion, night-tube, noise, volunteering and growth Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to crosstabs tables (XLS) January 2016 – culture, anti-social behaviour, sport & exercise, digital technology Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to crosstabs tables (XLS) September 2015 - economy, sugar, awareness of London government and work of Mayor Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to crosstabs tables (XLS) July 2015 - Energy, renting, online shopping and airports Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) March 2015 - Growth, recycling and reuse Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF of tables January 2015 – Economy, cost of living, living wage, affordable eating, cooking fats, physical activity major events Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) September 2014 - Awareness, sources, carrier bags and big dance Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) August 2014 - Health Survey Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) June 2014 - Economy, cost of living, personal finance, housing and airports Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) May 2014 - Priorities for Safety Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) March 2014 - Health Survey Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) February 2014 - Economy, cost of living, priorities and culture Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) February 2014 - Water Cannon Link to Data Full Tables (XLS) Tables – rebased (XLS) Tables - ethnicity (XLS) Tables - summary (XLS) November 2013 - Economy, cost of living, technology and aiports Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) September 2013 - Economy, Mayoral responsibilities Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) June 2013 - Economy, culture and community cohesion Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) March 2013 – Economy, volunteering, ULEZ, stamp duty, cycling Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) January 2013 - Economy, apprenticeships, aiport, housing and EU Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to Excel tables (XLS) October 2012 - Economy, Mayoral responsibilities and 2012 Games Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) June 2012 - Economy and Londoners priorities Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) February 2012 - Economy and volunteering Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) November 2011 - Economy, community cohesion, young people, sports Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) September 2011 - Community cohesion and festivals Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) June 2011 - Housing, economy, sport, 2012 games Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) March 2011 - Volunteering Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) December 2010 - Mayoral Priorities Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) August 2010 - Energy, and Safety in Parks Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) May 2010 - Climate Change Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) March 2010 - Culture Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) November 2009 - Waste and recycling Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) June 2009 - Quality of life Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) April 2009 - Economic outlook, and the Mayor's role Link to PDF of toplines (PDF) Link to PDF tables (PDF) Visit Talk London website to join in with the discussion.
Forecasts for the UK economy is a monthly comparison of independent forecasts.
Please note that this is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to review.
No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.
This month’s edition of the forecast comparison contains short-term forecasts for 2025 and 2026.