The share of under 16s in the overall population of the United Kingdom was **** percent in 2023, compared with **** percent in 1971. Throughout this period, the share of under 16s in the overall UK population has declined significantly, with a brief uptick visible in the *****. Aging population in the UK In 2001, the median age of the UK population was **** years, with this increasing to **** by 2022. Among UK regions, South West England had the highest median age in 2022, at **** years, compared with just **** years in London, the regions with the lowest median age. In the future, it is expected that the median age of the UK population will continue to increase. By 2050, it will reach **** years, ** by 2075, and by the end of the century the median age will reach **** years. Challenges of an aging population As the average age of the population gets older, the UK will face numerous challenges in adapting to this demographic change. With fewer people in the labor market, the government will raise less revenue, and struggle with increased expenditure on pensions. The UK is by no means alone in facing this challenge, with several countries, particular in Southern Europe and East Asia, facing similar demographic challenges. In 2050, for example, it is expected that **** percent of the population of South Korea will be aged 65 or over.

United Kingdom UK: Population: Growth data was reported at 0.648 % in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.714 % for 2016. United Kingdom UK: Population: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 0.352 % from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2017, with 58 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 0.849 % in 1962 and a record low of -0.036 % in 1982. United Kingdom UK: Population: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United Kingdom – Table UK.World Bank.WDI: Population and Urbanization Statistics. Annual population growth rate for year t is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from year t-1 to t, expressed as a percentage . Population is based on the de facto definition of population, which counts all residents regardless of legal status or citizenship.; ; Derived from total population. Population source: (1) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2017 Revision, (2) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, (3) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, (4) United Nations Statistical Division. Population and Vital Statistics Reprot (various years), (5) U.S. Census Bureau: International Database, and (6) Secretariat of the Pacific Community: Statistics and Demography Programme.; Weighted average;

In 2021 the live birth rate of the United Kingdom fell to 10.4 births per 1,000 population, the lowest it had been during this time period. The UK's birth rate has been declining steadily since 2010 when the birth rate was 12.9 births per 1,000 population. After 1938, the year with the highest birth rate in the UK was 1947, when the crude birth rate was 21.2 births per 1,000 population. Under two children per mother in 2021 The most recent crude live birth rate for this statistic is based on the 694,685 births, that occurred in 2021 as well as the mid-year population estimate of 67 million for the United Kingdom. It has a close relation to the fertility rate which estimates the average number of children women are expected to have in their lifetime, which was 1.53 in this reporting year. Among the constituent countries of the UK, Northern Ireland had the highest birth rate at 11.6, followed by England at 10.5, Wales at 9.3, and Scotland at 8.7. International comparisons The UK is not alone in seeing its birth and fertility rates decline dramatically in recent decades. Across the globe, fertility rates have fallen noticeably since the 1960s, with the fertility rate for Asia, Europe, and the Americas being below two in 2021. As of this year, the global fertility rate was 2.31, and was by far the highest in Africa, which had a fertility rate of 4.12, although this too has fallen from a high of 6.72 in the late 1960s. A reduction in infant mortality, as well as better access to contraception, are factors that have typically influenced declining fertility rates recently.

Cambridge was the fastest growing city in the United Kingdom between 2013 and 2023, with its population increasing by 17.3 percent. Exeter, Milton Keynes, and Peterborough also grew quite fast, with their populations increasing by 15.2 percent, 14.9 percent, and 14 percent, respectively. Largest UK urban areas When looking at cities defined by their urban agglomerations, as of 2023, London had approximately 9.65 million people living there, far larger than any other city in the United Kingdom. The urban agglomeration around the city of Birmingham had a population of approximately 2.67 million, while the urban areas around Manchester and Leeds had populations of 2.79 and 1.92 million respectively. London not only dominated other UK cities in terms of its population, but in its importance to the UK economy. In 2023, the gross domestic product of Greater London was approximately 569 billion British pounds, compared with 101 billion for Greater Manchester, and 85 billion in the West Midlands Metropolitan Area centered around Birmingham. UK population growth In 2023, the overall population of the United Kingdom was estimated to have reached approximately 68.3 million, compared with around 58.9 million in 2000. Since 1970, 2023 was also the year with the highest population growth rate, growing by 0.98 percent, and was at its lowest in 1982 when it shrank by 0.12 percent. Although the UK's birth rate has declined considerably in recent years, immigration to the UK has been high enough to drive population growth in the UK, which has had a positive net migration rate since 1994.

The UK breeding population estimate comprised 50,750 male Eurasian Woodcocks (95% CI: 42,935–59,251) in Britain and 937 males (95% CI: 274–1714) in Northern Ireland. The British population has continued to decline since 2013. To produce UK, British and regional estimates of breeding population size for Eurasian Woodcocks, and to assess the population change since 2003. The 2023 Breeding Woodcock Survey enlisted volunteer surveyors to count birds across a stratified sample of 1230 squares in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The established ‘roding count’ methodology consists of up to three dusk visits, each lasting 75 min, during May and/or June. The results were used to calculate presence and mean density across 48 strata based on wooded area and regions, and extrapolated to produce regional and national estimates of population size. The population in Britain in 2023 was estimated at 50,750 male Woodcocks (95 CI: 42,935–59,251), representing an 8% decline since 2013, and a 35% decline since 2003. Despite small population increases in Wales and England since 2013, the continuing decline was driven by a 49.5% reduction in the population estimate for North Scotland. In 2023, Northern Ireland’s breeding population of Eurasian Woodcocks was estimated at 937 males (95% CI: 274–1714), which is the first estimate produced using this species-specific method. Nationally, populations of Eurasian Woodcocks continue to decline, but the 2013–2023 declines were not as severe as those recorded between 2003 and 2013. The diverging population trends between North Scotland and the rest of Britain raise questions regarding regional variation in habitat suitability/availability and factors influencing overwinter survival. Recommendations are made for future versions of the Breeding Woodcock Survey regarding the composition of the random sample of squares, the treatment of incomplete data, and the sampling of non-woodland habitat.

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the England population over the last 20 plus years. It lists the population for each year, along with the year on year change in population, as well as the change in percentage terms for each year. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population change of England across the last two decades. For example, using this dataset, we can identify if the population is declining or increasing. If there is a change, when the population peaked, or if it is still growing and has not reached its peak. We can also compare the trend with the overall trend of United States population over the same period of time.

Key observations

In 2023, the population of England was 2,441, a 0.12% decrease year-by-year from 2022. Previously, in 2022, England population was 2,444, a decline of 0.49% compared to a population of 2,456 in 2021. Over the last 20 plus years, between 2000 and 2023, population of England decreased by 549. In this period, the peak population was 3,011 in the year 2009. The numbers suggest that the population has already reached its peak and is showing a trend of decline. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Data Coverage:

• From 2000 to 2023

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column displays the data year (Measured annually and for years 2000 to 2023)
• Population: The population for the specific year for the England is shown in this column.
• Year on Year Change: This column displays the change in England population for each year compared to the previous year.
• Change in Percent: This column displays the year on year change as a percentage. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for England Population by Year. You can refer the same here

In 2047, the working age population of the United Kingdom is expected to be **** million, compared with **** million people of pensionable age. As a comparison, in 2022, there were approximately **** million people who were of working age, compared with twelve million pensioners.

By 2047 it is expected that there will be approximately *** million men and **** million women living in London, compared with *** million men and **** million women in 2025. By 2046, the population of the United Kingdom as a whole is forecast to reach 76 million, compared with around 69 million in 2026. London’s population since 1981 Between 1981 and 1988, the population of London declined from *** million, to *** million. This period of gradual population decline was, however, followed by a sustained era of population growth, with London's population reaching *** million in 2023. There was a slight fall in London's population between 2019 and 2021, when the population declined by around 89,000. As of 2023, the largest age group in the city was that of 25 to 29-year-olds, of which there were around ******* people. London's boroughs London is currently split up into 32 boroughs, as well as the historic center of the city, the City of London. The City of London had a population of around ****** people in 2023, compared with ******* in Croydon, the London Borough with the highest population that year. London's historic center also had the highest average weekly salary in the city, at ***** pounds, compared with *** pounds in the Borough of Redbridge.

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the England population over the last 20 plus years. It lists the population for each year, along with the year on year change in population, as well as the change in percentage terms for each year. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population change of England across the last two decades. For example, using this dataset, we can identify if the population is declining or increasing. If there is a change, when the population peaked, or if it is still growing and has not reached its peak. We can also compare the trend with the overall trend of United States population over the same period of time.

Key observations

In 2022, the population of England was 2,441, a 0.49% decrease year-by-year from 2021. Previously, in 2021, England population was 2,453, a decline of 0.65% compared to a population of 2,469 in 2020. Over the last 20 plus years, between 2000 and 2022, population of England decreased by 549. In this period, the peak population was 3,011 in the year 2009. The numbers suggest that the population has already reached its peak and is showing a trend of decline. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Data Coverage:

• From 2000 to 2022

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column displays the data year (Measured annually and for years 2000 to 2022)
• Population: The population for the specific year for the England is shown in this column.
• Year on Year Change: This column displays the change in England population for each year compared to the previous year.
• Change in Percent: This column displays the year on year change as a percentage. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for England Population by Year. You can refer the same here

In 2023, the population of the United Kingdom reached 68.3 million, compared with 67.6 million in 2022. The UK population has more than doubled since 1871 when just under 31.5 million lived in the UK and has grown by around 8.2 million since the start of the twenty-first century. For most of the twentieth century, the UK population steadily increased, with two noticeable drops in population occurring during World War One (1914-1918) and in World War Two (1939-1945). Demographic trends in postwar Britain After World War Two, Britain and many other countries in the Western world experienced a 'baby boom,' with a postwar peak of 1.02 million live births in 1947. Although the number of births fell between 1948 and 1955, they increased again between the mid-1950s and mid-1960s, with more than one million people born in 1964. Since 1964, however, the UK birth rate has fallen from 18.8 births per 1,000 people to a low of just 10.2 in 2020. As a result, the UK population has gotten significantly older, with the country's median age increasing from 37.9 years in 2001 to 40.7 years in 2022. What are the most populated areas of the UK? The vast majority of people in the UK live in England, which had a population of 57.7 million people in 2023. By comparison, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland had populations of 5.44 million, 3.13 million, and 1.9 million, respectively. Within England, South East England had the largest population, at over 9.38 million, followed by the UK's vast capital city of London, at 8.8 million. London is far larger than any other UK city in terms of urban agglomeration, with just four other cities; Manchester, Birmingham, Leeds, and Glasgow, boasting populations that exceed one million people.

1. Many migratory species are in decline across their geographical ranges. Single-population studies can provide important insights into drivers at a local scale, but effective conservation requires multi-population perspectives. This is challenging because relevant data are often hard to consolidate, and state-of-the-art analytical tools are typically tailored to specific datasets.
2. We capitalized on a recent data harmonization initiative (SPI-Birds) and linked it to a generalized modeling framework to identify the demographic and environmental drivers of large-scale population decline in migratory pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) breeding across Britain.
3. We implemented a generalized integrated population model (IPM) to estimate age-specific vital rates, including their dependency on environmental conditions, and total and breeding population size of pied flycatchers using long-term (34–64 years) monitoring data from seven locations representative of the British breeding range. We then quantified the relative contributions of different vital rates and population structures to changes in short- and long-term population growth rates using transient life table response experiments (LTREs).
4. Substantial covariation in population sizes across breeding locations suggested that change was the result of large-scale drivers. This was supported by LTRE analyses, which attributed past changes in short-term population growth rates and long-term population trends primarily to variation in annual survival and dispersal dynamics, which largely act during migration and/or non-breeding season. Contributions of variation in local reproductive parameters were small in comparison, despite sensitivity to local temperature and rainfall within the breeding period.
5. We show that both short- and longer-term population changes of British-breeding pied flycatchers are likely linked to factors acting during migration and in non-breeding areas, where future research should be prioritized. We illustrate the potential of multi-population analyses for informing management at (inter)national scales and highlight the importance of data standardization, generalized and accessible analytical tools, and reproducible workflows to achieve them. Methods Data collection protocols are described in the paper, and further references provided therein. Raw data were harmonised and converted to a standard format by SPI-Birds (https://spibirds.org/) and then collated into the input data provided here using code deposited on https://github.com/SPI-Birds/SPI-IPM. Details on this step of data processing will be added to https://spi-birds.github.io/SPI-IPM/. The MCMC sample data files are the outputs of the integrated population models fitted in the study. Please refer to the published article and material deposited on the associated GitHub repository for more details.

The aims of this project were to:

• understand the demographic changes that United Kingdom local ethnic populations are presently experiencing and are likely to experience in the remainder of the 21st century
• understand the impact that international migration is having on the size and ethnic composition of UK local populations
• understand the role that differences in fertility between the UK's ethnic groups plays in shaping current and future trends
• understand the role that mortality differences between ethnic groups is playing in the changing demography of the UK's local populations
• understand how the ethnic diversity of UK local populations is changing and likely to change in the future
• deliver the projections as a resource for use by social science in the UK
• build capacity in the analysis of demographic change through the development of young and middle career researchers
• tap into the best practice internationally to benefit the UK social science community.

To achieve the project aims, the objectives were to:

• build projections of the populations of ethnic groups for UK local areas
• use the population projection model to explore alternative futures.

The project built a model for projecting the ethnic group populations of UK Local Authorities (LAs), which handles 352 LAs, 16 ethnic groups, 102 ages and 2 sexes. To drive the projections, estimates of the components of ethnic change were prepared for 2001-7. A new method produced UK estimates of ethnic life expectancy, ranging from 82 years for Chinese women to 77 for Pakistani. A future 2% decline in mortality per annum was assumed. Ethnic fertility estimates showed that only Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis had total fertility rates above replacement. Small declines in fertility were forecast. New estimates of the local distribution of immigration were made, using administrative data, because of concerns about official figures. The ethnicity of both immigrants and emigrants for local areas was projected. Estimates were constructed of the ethnic group probabilities for internal in- and out-migration for LAs using 2001 Census data. These probabilities were assumed constant in the future, as migration was stable between 2001 and 2008. Five projections were produced. Two benchmark projections, using constant inputs from 2001-2, forecast the UK population would be 62 and 56 million in 2051.The official projection reports 77 million. The Trend projection, aligned to ONS assumptions projected 78 million for 2051. Using revised assumptions 80 million was projected in a fourth projection. When the model for emigration was changed the projected population was only 71 million. All projections showed ageing and dispersion of ethnic minorities. By 2051 the UK will have a larger, more diverse and integrated population.

For further information about the project, see documentation and the What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios ESRC award page.

In 2021, there were **** births per 1,000 people in Northern Ireland, compared with eleven in the previous year. Between 2000 and 2008, Northern Ireland's birth rate increased from **** to **** but started to decline gradually until 2012 when it dropped from **** to **** in just one year. During this provided time period, the birth rate in Northern Ireland was highest in 1971, when it was **** and was at its lowest in 2020 when there were just eleven births per 1,000 people. Falling birth rates in the UK For the United Kingdom as a whole, the birth rate fell to **** births per 1,000 people in 2020, before a slight uptick to **** in 2021. After a postwar peak of **** births per 1,000 people in 1964, the UK birth rate fell sharply to just **** by 1977. Between 1977 and 2012 the birth rate fluctuated between **** and ****, but declined in every year between 2012 and 2020. In 2021, the UK's fertility rate (the number of births per women) fell to just ****, compared with **** in 1964. Since 1973, the UK has fallen below the minimum replacement level fertility rate of ***, and without immigration would likely see its population decline in the long term. Global demographic trends The considerable decline in the UK's fertility rate in recent decades is not an isolated phenomenon. As of 2024, Africa was, at ****, the only continent to have a fertility rate higher than the global average of ****. Several countries, mainly in East Asia and Europe, have far lower fertility rates than the UK or the global average, however. South Korea provides the most dramatic example of this trend, with its fertility rate falling from **** in 1960 to just **** by 2020. By the *****, it is expected that, as Africa's fertility rate converges with the rest of the world, the global population will peak at around **** billion and start to decline.

In the United Kingdom, Dartford Warblers (Sylvia undata) are mainly confined to the remaining fragments of lowland heath and, as a consequence of the interest in the flora and fauna of this much-threatened habitat, their populations and ecology have been well studied. Historically, the Dartford Warbler had a much wider distribution, and was presumably more abundant, than in recent years. Since the nineteenth century, the population went into steep decline, at least in part due to habitat loss and fragmentation. The most recent survey in 2006, however, recorded a major expansion in range and population size. The UK population has been well monitored, with full surveys in 1974, 1984, 1994 and 2006. The first two surveys were funded by RSPB; the 1994 survey was funded by RSPB and English Nature (now Natural England); the 2006 survey was funded by RSPB, BTO, Natural England and the Forestry Commission (England) under the Statutory Conservation Agencies and RSPB Breeding Bird Scheme (SCARABBS).
Though the population in the UK is small compared with that of southern and western France and Spain, the species is considered to be of conservation concern in Europe because of losses in some of the most valuable habitats in Spain, including the Mediterranean maquis. 1974 Survey: This dataset includes every recorded territory. However, in the New Forest, although 203 pairs were actually found, two large areas thought to support about 40 pairs were not recorded at all and another area was only partially covered. Therefore, the total population count includes an element of estimation. The total population was estimated to be 557 pairs, which was close to the 460 pairs estimated at the last peak in 1960-61. However, the centre of the distribution had moved further west. The species is very susceptible to cold winters, but the population was high in 1974 after a long run of mild winter weather. The preferred habitat was mature heather with a generous mixture of gorse of medium height. Small fragments of heath were found to be less densely occupied than larger ones. For more information see Bibby & Tubbs (1975), British Birds 68: p177-195.
1984 Survey: The number of territories recorded in 1984 was 423. The totals recorded in this dataset represent the minimum number of breeding males, taken as equivalent to pairs, which were counted on two or more visits between April and June. Increases in territory numbers were especially noted in Surrey, which had a strong population after recovery from extinction in 1961, and Cornwall was occupied after a 40-year absence. In the centre of the range, about 10-15% of the population decline is attributed to the fact that colder winters preceded the 1984 survey compared with the mild winters preceding the 1974 survey. A loss of 75 territories was due to growth of forestry plantations, temporarily suitable in 1974 but by 1984 too old (and permanently unsuitable), and unfortunately not replaced by other new plantings. The amount of suitable habitat remained about the same in the New Forest, but declined by about 10% in Dorset. Further losses in Dorset were due to degradation of sites, and the effects of fragmentation and isolation. For more information, see Robbins & Bibby (1985), British Birds 78: 269-280.
1994 Survey: A total of 1,600-1,670 territories was recorded, though it is likely that the actual population was slightly higher (1,800-1,890 territories), representing a near four-fold increase in population since the 1984 survey. Observers were asked to visit each site (or 1km grid square in the New Forest) at least twice, once during April to mid-May and once during mid-May to the end of June. This dataset includes every territory recorded by the observers. The observers recorded the number of singing males and information such as whether the bird was calling or carrying nest material etc. They used this to information to provide their best estimate

In the United Kingdom, the crude birth rate in 1800 was 37 live births per thousand people, meaning that 3.7 percent of the population had been born in that year. From 1800 until 1830, the crude birth rate jumped between 35 and 45, before plateauing between 35 and 37 until the 1880s. From 1880 until the Second World War, the crude birth rate dropped to just under fifteen births per one thousand people, with the only increase coming directly after World War One. After WWII, the United Kingdom experienced a baby boom, as many soldiers returned home and the economy recovered, however this boom stopped in the late 1960s and the crude birth rate went into decline again. From the late 1970s until today, the crude birth rate has remained between eleven and fourteen, and is expected to be 11.5 in 2020.

The United Kingdom: Female population, percent of total: The latest value from 2023 is 50.77 percent, a decline from 50.78 percent in 2022. In comparison, the world average is 49.99 percent, based on data from 196 countries. Historically, the average for the United Kingdom from 1960 to 2023 is 51.34 percent. The minimum value, 50.77 percent, was reached in 2023 while the maximum of 51.79 percent was recorded in 1991.

Of the G7 countries, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States were forecast to have a constant population ******** until 2050. In Japan, Germany, and Italy, the population is forecast to constantly ******* due to aging populations and falling fertility rates. In France, the population was first expected to decline by 2048.

Scotland’s population was estimated to be 5,466,000 on 30 June 2020 (referred to as mid-2020). The population increased by 2,700 people (0.05%) in the year to mid-2020, the slowest growth since the year to mid-2003. The average growth in the 5 years to mid-2019 was around 23,000 people (0.43%). There were 63,100 deaths and 48,700 births in the year ending mid-2020. There were 14,500 more deaths than births, more deaths than births for the sixth year running and the largest natural decrease on record. There were 2,000 (4%) fewer births than the previous year, a decrease in line with trends seen in previous years. The number of deaths was 6,900 (12%) more than the previous year, which is a larger increase than previous years. Migration was the main driver of population growth, with 16,900 more people moving to Scotland than leaving in the year to mid-2020; +9,000 from the rest of the UK and +7,900 from overseas. This was lower than in recent years. Population change varies across Scotland. Around two thirds of council areas (20 out of 32) experienced population decline, with 12 areas seeing population growth in the last year. Areas facing the greatest population decline were mainly in the west of the country. Most council areas (25 out of 32) saw more people move to the area than leave in the year to mid-2020. Only one council area, Midlothian, had more births than deaths over the same period.

The data collection contains population projections for UK ethnic groups and all local area by age (single year of age up to 100+) and sex. Included in the data set are also input data to the cohort component model that was used to project populations into the future-fertility rates, mortality rates, international migration flows and internal migration probabilities. Also included in data set are output data: Number of deaths, births and internal migrants. All data included are for the years 2011 to 2061. We have produced two ethnic population projections for UK local authorities, based on information on 2011 Census ethnic populations and 2010-2011-2012 ethnic components. Both projections align fertility and mortality assumptions to ONS assumptions. Where they differ is in the migration assumptions. In LEEDS L1 we employ internal migration rates for 2001 to 2011, including periods of boom and bust. We use a new assumption about international migration anticipating that the UK may leave the EU (BREXIT). In LEEDS L2 we use average internal migration rates for the 5 year period 2006-11 and the official international migration flow assumptions with a long term balance of +185 thousand per annum. This project aims to understand and to forecast the ethnic transition in the United Kingdom's population at national and sub-national levels. The ethnic transition is the change in population composition from one dominated by the White British to much greater diversity. In the decade 2001-2011 the UK population grew strongly as a result of high immigration, increased fertility and reduced mortality. Both the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Leeds University estimated the growth or decline in the sixteen ethnic groups making up the UK's population in 2001. The 2011 Census results revealed that both teams had over-estimated the growth of the White British population and under-estimated the growth of the ethnic minority populations. The wide variation between our local authority projected populations in 2011 and the Census suggested inaccurate forecasting of internal migration. We propose to develop, working closely with ONS as our first external partner, fresh estimates of mid-year ethnic populations and their components of change using new data on the later years of the decade and new methods to ensure the estimates agree in 2011 with the Census. This will involve using population accounting theory and an adjustment technique known as iterative proportional fitting to generate a fully consistent set of ethnic population estimates between 2001 and 2011. We will study, at national and local scales, the development of demographic rates for ethnic group populations (fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration). The ten year time series of component summary indicators and age-specific rates will provide a basis for modelling future assumptions for projections. We will, in our main projection, align the assumptions to the ONS 2012-based principal projection. The national assumptions will need conversion to ethnic groups and to local scale. The ten years of revised ethnic-specific component rates will enable us to study the relationships between national and local demographic trends. In addition, we will analyse a consistent time series of local authority internal migration. We cannot be sure, at this stage, how the national-local relationships for each ethnic group will be modelled but we will be able to test our models using the time series. Of course, all future projections of the population are uncertain. We will therefore work to measure the uncertainty of component rates. The error distributions can be used to construct probability distributions of future populations via stochastic projections so that we can define confidence intervals around our projections. Users of projections are always interested in the impact of the component assumptions on future populations. We will run a set of reference projections to estimate the magnitude and direction of impact of international migrations assumptions (net effect of immigration less emigration), of internal migration assumptions (the net effect of in-migration less out-migration), of fertility assumptions compared with replacement level, of mortality assumptions compared with no change and finally the effect of the initial age distribution (i.e. demographic potential). The outputs from the project will be a set of technical reports on each aspect of the research, journal papers submitted for peer review and a database of projection inputs and outputs available to users via the web. The demographic inputs will be subject to quality assurance by Edge Analytics, our second external partner. They will also help in disseminating these inputs to local government users who want to use them in their own ethnic projections. In sum, the project will show how a wide range of secondary data sources can be used in theoretically refined demographic models to provide us with a more reliable picture of how the UK population is going to change in ethnic composition. Base year data (2011) are derived from the 2011 census, vital statistics and ONS migration data. Subsequent population data are computed with a cohort component model.