Principal projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.

Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.

Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2018-based estimates are the latest principal projection.

This graph shows the resident population projection of elderly people in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2050, by age group. There is expected to be an overall growth in the number of elderly people. It is expected that all age groups over the age of 60 are expected to increase in number; most substantially, those aged over 80 years.

This graph shows the resident population projection of middle aged people in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2050, by age group. There is expected to be an overall growth in the numbers of middle aged people, however certain age groups are expected to fall in number, such as those aged from 50 to 54 years and 55 to 59 years.

2020-based interim national population projections with assumptions of possible future international migration that reflect estimates of international migration to year ending June 2022. The potential future population size of the UK, Great Britain, England and Wales, England, Scotland and Wales. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions. Not national statistics.

In 2047, the working age population of the United Kingdom is expected to be 49.9 million, compared with 15.1 million people of pensionable age. As a comparison, in 2022, there were approximately 43.2 million people who were of working age, compared with twelve million pensioners.

The housing-led projections reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory. The housing-led projections are recommended for most local planning purposes, and the 10-year variant can be considered the default variant.

Users in London local authorities are able to request bespoke projections based on alternative housing scenarios through the GLA Population Projection Service.

The most recent set of projections are the 2022-based round (August 2024) which comprise three variants based on different migration and fertility assumptions.

All 2022-based projections are based on a common scenario of assumed future housing delivery that is derived from capacity identified in the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment.

These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here.

Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days.

For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post.

The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs and London wards (2022 boundaries). The release also includes components of change (births, deaths and migration data).

Documentation page

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This statistic shows the predicted population of the South East of England, United Kingdom (UK) from 2016 to 2041, based on the 2016 mid-year estimates. The figures show year on year growth, to a total population of approximately 10 million by 2041 for this region.

By 2043 the population of London is expected to reach 9.8 million people, an increase of 550,000 people when compared with 2025. While it has seen quite a steep rise in its population in recent years, London’s population was relatively stable throughout the 1980s and even decreased slightly towards the end of that decade. After peaking at 8.89 million in 2019, the population of London has fallen slightly, to 8.86 million by 2022. UK population forecast Like London, the population of the United Kingdom is forecast to continue to grow well into the middle of the century. By 2046, the population of the UK is estimated to be over 76.3 million people, an increase of over 20 million people when compared with the population figures for 1976. Additionally, the average age of the population is predicted to increase from 39.5 years in 2020 to 44.5 years by the mid-2040s, and continue to increase towards the end of the century. London looms large In the UK, London is by far the largest urban agglomeration in the country, dwarfing the UK's next largest cities of Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds. London also has a dominant economic position in the UK, with the city accounting for around a quarter of the total GDP in the country. The UK capital also has a far higher GDP per head than the rest of the county, at 57,338 pounds, compared with 33,593 pounds.

Population growth (annual %) in United Kingdom was reported at 0.82121 % in 2023, according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. United Kingdom - Population growth (annual %) - actual values, historical data, forecasts and projections were sourced from the World Bank on June of 2025.

Office for National Statistics’ national and subnational total mid-year population estimates for England and Wales for a selection of administrative and census areas by sex for 2012 to 2020. The data is source is from ONS Population Estimates. Find out more about this dataset here.

This data is issued at (BGC) Generalised (20m) boundary type for:

Country, Region, Upper Tier Local Authority (2021), Lower Tier Local Authority (2021), Middle Super Output Area (2011), and Lower Super Output Area (2011).

If you require the data at full resolution boundaries, or if you are interested in the range of statistical data that Esri UK make available in ArcGIS Online please enquire at dataenquiries@esriuk.com.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) produces annual estimates of the resident population of England and Wales at 30 June every year. The most authoritative population estimates come from the census, which takes place every 10 years in the UK. Population estimates from a census are updated each year to produce mid-year population estimates (MYEs), which are broken down by local authority, sex and age. More detailed information on the methods used to generate the mid-year population estimates can be found here.

For further information on the usefulness of the data and guidance on small area geographies please see here.The currency of this data is 2021.

Methodology

The total and 5-year breakdown population counts are reproduced directly from the source data. The age range estimates have been calculated from the published estimates by single year of age. The percentages are calculated using the gender specific (total, female or male) total population count as a denominator except in the case of the male and female total population where the total population is used to give female and male proportions.

This dataset will be updated annually, in two releases.

Creator: Office for National Statistics. Aggregated age groupings and percentages calculated by Esri UK._The data services available from this page are derived from the National Data Service. The NDS delivers thousands of open national statistical indicators for the UK as data-as-a-service. Data are sourced from major providers such as the Office for National Statistics, Public Health England and Police UK and made available for your area at standard geographies such as counties, districts and wards and census output areas. This premium service can be consumed as online web services or on-premise for use throughout the ArcGIS system.Read more about the NDS.

At the April 2023 meeting of the Population Statistics User Group, the GLA Demography team presented an overview of currently available sources of population estimates for the previous decade, namely:

• The original ONS mid-year population estimates (including rolled-forward estimates for 2021)
• Experimental outputs from the ONS's Dynamic Population Model
• The modelled population backseries produced by the GLA to act as inputs to our 2021-based interim population projections

The slides from the presentation are published here together with packages of comparison plots for all local authority districts and regions in England to allow users to easily view some of the key differences between the sources for their own areas.

The plots also include comparisons of the Dynamic Population Model's provisional 2022 estimates of births with the modelled estimates of recent births produced by the GLA.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

The aims of this project were to:

• understand the demographic changes that United Kingdom local ethnic populations are presently experiencing and are likely to experience in the remainder of the 21st century
• understand the impact that international migration is having on the size and ethnic composition of UK local populations
• understand the role that differences in fertility between the UK's ethnic groups plays in shaping current and future trends
• understand the role that mortality differences between ethnic groups is playing in the changing demography of the UK's local populations
• understand how the ethnic diversity of UK local populations is changing and likely to change in the future
• deliver the projections as a resource for use by social science in the UK
• build capacity in the analysis of demographic change through the development of young and middle career researchers
• tap into the best practice internationally to benefit the UK social science community.

To achieve the project aims, the objectives were to:

• build projections of the populations of ethnic groups for UK local areas
• use the population projection model to explore alternative futures.

The project built a model for projecting the ethnic group populations of UK Local Authorities (LAs), which handles 352 LAs, 16 ethnic groups, 102 ages and 2 sexes. To drive the projections, estimates of the components of ethnic change were prepared for 2001-7. A new method produced UK estimates of ethnic life expectancy, ranging from 82 years for Chinese women to 77 for Pakistani. A future 2% decline in mortality per annum was assumed. Ethnic fertility estimates showed that only Indians, Pakistanis and Bangladeshis had total fertility rates above replacement. Small declines in fertility were forecast. New estimates of the local distribution of immigration were made, using administrative data, because of concerns about official figures. The ethnicity of both immigrants and emigrants for local areas was projected. Estimates were constructed of the ethnic group probabilities for internal in- and out-migration for LAs using 2001 Census data. These probabilities were assumed constant in the future, as migration was stable between 2001 and 2008. Five projections were produced. Two benchmark projections, using constant inputs from 2001-2, forecast the UK population would be 62 and 56 million in 2051.The official projection reports 77 million. The Trend projection, aligned to ONS assumptions projected 78 million for 2051. Using revised assumptions 80 million was projected in a fourth projection. When the model for emigration was changed the projected population was only 71 million. All projections showed ageing and dispersion of ethnic minorities. By 2051 the UK will have a larger, more diverse and integrated population.

For further information about the project, see documentation and the What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios ESRC award page.


Main Topics:

For full details of the individual files (and topics covered) within the study, see documentation files '6777_list_of_files.xlsx' and '6777_fileinformation.pdf' in the Documentation table below.

Users should note that this study is very large - c.8GB. Multiple files have been created for download, according to the type of compilation - benchef, bencher, trendef, uptapef and uptaper (see 6777_fileinformation.pdf for details). To obtain all files contained within the study, users should download all zip files.

This report was released in September 2010. However, recent demographic data is available on the datastore - you may find other datasets on the Datastore useful such as: GLA Population Projections, National Insurance Number Registrations of Overseas Nationals, Births by Birthplace of Mother, Births and Fertility Rates, Office for National Statistics (ONS) Population Estimates

FOCUSONLONDON2010:POPULATIONANDMIGRATION

London is the United Kingdom’s only city region. Its population of 7.75 million is 12.5 per cent of the UK population living on just 0.6 per cent of the land area. London’s average population density is over 4,900 persons per square kilometre, this is ten times that of the second most densely populated region.

Between 2001 and 2009 London’s population grew by over 430 thousand, more than any other region, accounting for over 16 per cent of the UK increase.

This report discusses in detail the population of London including Population Age Structure, Fertility and Mortality, Internal Migration, International Migration, Population Turnover and Churn, and Demographic Projections.

Population and Migration report is the first release of the Focus on London 2010-12 series. Reports on themes such as Income, Poverty, Labour Market, Skills, Health, and Housing are also available.

REPORT:

Read the full report in PDF format.

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PRESENTATION:

To access an interactive presentation about population changes in London click the link to see it on Prezi.com

DATA:

To access a spreadsheet with all the data from the Population and Migration report click on the image below.

Report data

MAP:

To enter an interactive map showing a number of indicators discussed in the Population and Migration report click on the image below.

Interactive Maps

FACTS:

● Top five boroughs for babies born per 10,000 population in 2008-09:

1. Newham – 244.4
2. Barking and Dagenham – 209.3
3. Hackney – 205.7
4. Waltham Forest – 202.7
5. Greenwich – 196.2

-32. Havering – 116.8

-33. City of London – 47.0

● In 2009, Barnet overtook Croydon as the most populous London borough. Prior to this Croydon had been the largest since 1966

● Population per hectare of land used for Domestic building and gardens is highest in Tower Hamlets

● In 2008-09, natural change (births minus deaths) led to 78,000 more Londoners compared with only 8,000 due to migration. read more about this or click play on the chart below to reveal how regional components of populations change have altered over time.

Open data for England principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.