Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.

Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2022-based datasets are the latest projection.

Principal projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.

*Update 6 August - draft 2024-based projections are now available. Final versions of these projections are expected to be published early in 2026. More information about these can be found in this blog post. The trend-based projections include a range of variants based on different assumptions about future levels of migration. The projections are produced for all local authorities in England & Wales. The datasets include summary workbooks with population and summary components of change as well as zip archives with the full detailed outputs from the models, including components of change by single year of age and sex. The most recent set of trend-based population projections currently available are the 2022-based projections (August 2024). Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days. For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post. The 2022-based projections comprise three variants based on different periods of past migration patterns and assumed levels of future fertility rates. Trend-based projections don't explicitly account for future housing delivery. For most local planning purposes we generally recommend the use of housing-led projections These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here 14 July 2023 - following a minor update to the modelled population estimates series, we have made available an additional version of the projections based on these updated inputs. At this time we have no plans to update or replace the outputs and documentation published in January 2023. However, we recommend users looking to use the projections in analysis or as inputs to onward modelling consider using these updated outputs. Documentation page Back to projections homepage

The housing-led projections reconcile future population growth with available housing supply by incorporating a housing supply trajectory. The housing-led projections are recommended for most local planning purposes, and the 10-year variant can be considered the default variant. For most users, we recommend accessing the projections through the London Projections Explorer tool. Users in London local authorities are able to request bespoke projections based on alternative housing scenarios through the GLA Population Projection Service. The most recent set of projections are the 2022-based round (August 2024) which comprise three variants based on different migration and fertility assumptions. All 2022-based projections are based on a common scenario of assumed future housing delivery that is derived from capacity identified in the 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. These projections are based on modelled back series of population estimates produced by the GLA and available here. Additional documentation, including updated information about methodologies and assumptions will be published in the coming days. For more information about these projections, see the accompanying blog post. The housing-led projections include projections for London Boroughs and London wards (2022 boundaries). The release also includes components of change (births, deaths and migration data). Documentation page Back to projections homepage

By 2047 the population of London is expected to reach 9.97 million people, an increase of almost 699,500 when compared with 2025. While there has been quite a steep rise in its population in recent years, London’s population growth was relatively stagnant throughout the 1980s and even decreased slightly towards the end of that decade. After peaking at 8.89 million in 2019, the population of London has fallen slightly, to 8.8 million by 2021. UK population forecast Like London, the population of the United Kingdom is forecast to continue to grow well into the middle of the century. By 2046, the population of the UK is estimated to be over 76.3 million people, an increase of over 20 million people when compared with the population figures for 1976. Additionally, the average age of the population is predicted to increase from 39.5 years in 2020 to 44.5 years by the mid-2040s, and continue to increase towards the end of the century. London looms large In the UK, London is by far the largest urban agglomeration in the country, dwarfing the UK's next largest cities of Birmingham, Manchester, and Leeds. London also has a dominant economic position in the UK, with the city accounting for around a quarter of the total GDP in the country. The UK capital also has a far higher GDP per head than the rest of the county, at over ****** pounds in 2023, compared with the UK average of ****** pounds.

This graph shows the resident population projection of elderly people in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2050, by age group. There is expected to be an overall growth in the number of elderly people. It is expected that all age groups over the age of 60 are expected to increase in number; most substantially, those aged over 80 years.

Use this interactive tool to compare the projected resident populations of selected areas and how they may change over time. Data are available for regions, counties and Local Authorities in England. These pyramids accompany the 2012-based Subnational Population Projections release. Projections are not forecasts and show what the population will be if recent trends continue. They do not take into account any policy changes that have not yet occurred or not yet had an impact on observed trends.

Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for regions in England. 2022-based datasets are the latest projection.

ONS 2022 Population projections by Age and Gender for Calderdale. ONS is intending to publish future updates of the subnational population projections every two or three years with 2026 subnational population projections expected in summer 2028. For background information on projections for population change in England see ONS article "Subnational population projections for England: 2022-based: June 2025.

National population projections by age and sex for the UK and constituent countries. Includes information on the principal (main) and variant (alternative scenario) projections for each country together with details of the fertility, mortality and migration assumptions on which they are based. Source agency: Office for National Statistics Designation: National Statistics Language: English Alternative title: NPP

This graph shows the resident population projection of middle aged people in the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2050, by age group. There is expected to be an overall growth in the numbers of middle aged people, however certain age groups are expected to fall in number, such as those aged from 50 to 54 years and 55 to 59 years.

Subnational population projections use past trends to project forward the population to give an indication of the future population for 25 years from the base year. Available for local authorities and Primary Care Organisations. Source agency: Office for National Statistics Designation: National Statistics Language: English Alternative title: SNPP

In 2047, the working age population of the United Kingdom is expected to be **** million, compared with **** million people of pensionable age. As a comparison, in 2022, there were approximately **** million people who were of working age, compared with twelve million pensioners.

The ethnic group projections are produced for London borough and provide detailed projection by 17 ethnic groups of London’s future population. Two variants are produced: one consistent with the 2016-based central trend projection, and one consistent with the 2016-based housing-led projection. The 2016-based projections remain the most recent set of GLA ethnic group projections.

The data collection contains population projections for UK ethnic groups and all local area by age (single year of age up to 100+) and sex. Included in the data set are also input data to the cohort component model that was used to project populations into the future-fertility rates, mortality rates, international migration flows and internal migration probabilities. Also included in data set are output data: Number of deaths, births and internal migrants. All data included are for the years 2011 to 2061. We have produced two ethnic population projections for UK local authorities, based on information on 2011 Census ethnic populations and 2010-2011-2012 ethnic components. Both projections align fertility and mortality assumptions to ONS assumptions. Where they differ is in the migration assumptions. In LEEDS L1 we employ internal migration rates for 2001 to 2011, including periods of boom and bust. We use a new assumption about international migration anticipating that the UK may leave the EU (BREXIT). In LEEDS L2 we use average internal migration rates for the 5 year period 2006-11 and the official international migration flow assumptions with a long term balance of +185 thousand per annum.

This project aims to understand and to forecast the ethnic transition in the United Kingdom's population at national and sub-national levels. The ethnic transition is the change in population composition from one dominated by the White British to much greater diversity. In the decade 2001-2011 the UK population grew strongly as a result of high immigration, increased fertility and reduced mortality. Both the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Leeds University estimated the growth or decline in the sixteen ethnic groups making up the UK's population in 2001. The 2011 Census results revealed that both teams had over-estimated the growth of the White British population and under-estimated the growth of the ethnic minority populations. The wide variation between our local authority projected populations in 2011 and the Census suggested inaccurate forecasting of internal migration. We propose to develop, working closely with ONS as our first external partner, fresh estimates of mid-year ethnic populations and their components of change using new data on the later years of the decade and new methods to ensure the estimates agree in 2011 with the Census. This will involve using population accounting theory and an adjustment technique known as iterative proportional fitting to generate a fully consistent set of ethnic population estimates between 2001 and 2011.

We will study, at national and local scales, the development of demographic rates for ethnic group populations (fertility, mortality, internal migration and international migration). The ten year time series of component summary indicators and age-specific rates will provide a basis for modelling future assumptions for projections. We will, in our main projection, align the assumptions to the ONS 2012-based principal projection. The national assumptions will need conversion to ethnic groups and to local scale. The ten years of revised ethnic-specific component rates will enable us to study the relationships between national and local demographic trends. In addition, we will analyse a consistent time series of local authority internal migration. We cannot be sure, at this stage, how the national-local relationships for each ethnic group will be modelled but we will be able to test our models using the time series.

Of course, all future projections of the population are uncertain. We will therefore work to measure the uncertainty of component rates. The error distributions can be used to construct probability distributions of future populations via stochastic projections so that we can define confidence intervals around our projections. Users of projections are always interested in the impact of the component assumptions on future populations. We will run a set of reference projections to estimate the magnitude and direction of impact of international migrations assumptions (net effect of immigration less emigration), of internal migration assumptions (the net effect of in-migration less out-migration), of fertility assumptions compared with replacement level, of mortality assumptions compared with no change and finally the effect of the initial age distribution (i.e. demographic potential).

The outputs from the project will be a set of technical reports on each aspect of the research, journal papers submitted for peer review and a database of projection inputs and outputs available to users via the web. The demographic inputs will be subject to quality assurance by Edge Analytics, our second external partner. They will also help in disseminating these inputs to local government users who want to use them in their own ethnic projections. In sum, the project will show how a wide range of secondary data sources can be used in theoretically refined demographic...

Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.

The statistic shows the total population in the United Kingdom from 2015 to 2019, with projections up until 2025. The population grew steadily over this period.

Population of the United Kingdom

Despite a fertility rate just below the replacement rate, the United Kingdom’s population has been slowly but steadily growing, increasing by an average of 0.6 percent every year since 2002. The age distribution has remained roughly the same for the past ten years or so, with the share of the population over 65 years old seeing a slight increase as the baby boomer generation enters into that age bracket. That share is likely to continue growing slightly, as the United Kingdom has one of the highest life expectancies in the world.

The population of the island nation is predominantly white Christians, but a steady net influx of immigrants, part of a legacy of the wide-reaching former British Empire, has helped diversify the population. One of the largest ethnic minorities in the United Kingdom is that of residents of an Indian background, born either in the UK, India, or in other parts of the world. India itself is experiencing problems with rapid population growth, causing some of its population to leave the country in order to find employment. The United Kingdom’s relatively lower levels of unemployment and the historical connection between the two countries (which has also resulted in family connections between individuals) are likely reasons that make it a popular destination for Indian emigrants.

Age and sex distribution of United Kingdom in 2100. Total population: 74,305,411.