The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in September 2025 after reporting zero growth in the previous month. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now slightly larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by *** percent and is expected to grow by *** percent in 2025 and by *** percent in 2026. Between 2027 and 2030, the economy is forecast to grow by ****percent every year. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge *** percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by *** percent. Long-term growth downgraded Although the UK economy will grow faster than expected in 2025, long-term economic growth is predicted to be slower. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as lower than expected productivity growth were some of the main reasons cited for this downgrade. In addition, the UK's inflation rate for 2025 was also revised, with an annual rate of *** percent predicated, up from *** percent in the last forecast. Unemployment has also been higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be *** percent instead of *** percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by *** percent in Q3 and by *** percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the current government elected, although after one and a half years in power it has so far proven elusive.

The UK economy grew by 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2025, compared with 0.3 percent growth in the previous quarter. After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy grew strongly in the first half of 2024, growing by 0.8 percent in Q1, and 0.6 percent in Q2, with growth slowing in the second half of the year. In the third quarter of 2020 the UK experienced record setting growth of 16.8 percent, which itself followed the record 20.3 percent contraction in Q2 2020. Growing economy key to Labour's plans Since winning the 2024 general election, the UK's Labour Party have seen their popularity fall substantially. In February 2025, the government's approval rating fell to a low of -54 percent, making them almost as disliked as the Conservatives just before the last election. A string of unpopular policies since taking office have taken a heavy toll on support for the government. Labour hope they can reverse their declining popularity by growing the economy, which has underperformed for several years, and when measured in GDP per capita, fell in 2023, and 2024. Steady labor market trends set to continue? After a robust 2022, the UK labor market remained resilient throughout 2023 and 2024. The unemployment rate at the end of 2024 was 4.4 percent, up from four percent at the start of the year, but still one of the lowest rates on record. While the average number of job vacancies has been falling since a May 2022 peak, there was a slight increase in January 2025 when compared with the previous month. The more concerning aspect of the labor market, from the government's perspective, are the high levels of economic inactivity due to long-term sickness, which reached a peak of 2.84 million in late 2023, and remained at high levels throughout 2024.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United Kingdom expanded 0.10 percent in the third quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by 0.9 percent and is expected to grow by just one percent in 2025 and by 1.9 percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2027, and then grow by 1.7, and 1.8 percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge 9.4 percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by 7.6 percent. UK growth downgraded in 2025 Although the economy is still expected to grow in 2025, the one percent growth anticipated in this forecast has been halved from two percent in October 2024. Increased geopolitical uncertainty as well as the impact of American tariffs on the global economy are some of the main reasons for this mark down. The UK's inflation rate for 2025 has also been revised, with an annual rate of 3.2 percent predicated, up from 2.6 percent in the last forecast. Unemployment is also anticipated to be higher than initially thought, with the annual unemployment rate likely to be 4.5 percent instead of 4.1 percent. Long-term growth problems In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in Q3 and by 0.3 percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before that last recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. Although growth since the pandemic has been noticeably sluggish, there has been a clear long-term trend of declining growth rates. The economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. Achieving strong levels of economic growth is one of the main aims of the Labour government elected in 2024, although after almost one year in power it has so far proven elusive.

Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, gross domestic products (GDP) decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by 2021, growth rates were positive in all four areas again. The United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union all experiencing slow economic growth in 2023 amid high inflation, with Germany even seeing an economic recession. GDP and its components GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is composed of government spending, consumption, business investments and net exports. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country. Economists rely on a variety of factors when predicting the future performance of the GDP. Inflation rate is one of the economic indicators providing insight into the future behavior of households, which make up a significant proportion of GDP. Projections are based on the past performance of such information. Future considerations Some factors can be more easily predicted than others. For example, projections of the annual inflation rate of the United States are easy to come by. However, the intensity and impact of something like Brexit is difficult to predict. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine is difficult to foresee. Hence, actual GDP growth may be higher or lower than the original estimates.

In the third quarter of 2025, the quarterly gross domestic product of the United Kingdom was approximately, 706 billion British pounds, compared with around 705.5 billion pounds in the previous quarter. The large dip in GDP that can be seen in the second quarter of 2020 saw the UK economy fall from 652 billion pounds to 522 billion, with more usual levels of output not recovering until well into 2021. The COVID-19 lockdowns enacted by the UK government at that time was the main reason for this large fall in GDP. Growth lagging as UK heads into 2025 After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy started 2024 with the strongest quarterly GDP growth in several years, growing by 0.7 percent in the first quarter, and then by 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Economic growth in the second half of the year was, however, far less promising, with GDP flatlining in the third quarter, and monthly GDP shrinking by 0.1 percent in September and then again in October. Although GDP is still forecast to grow in 2025, the overall economic picture is precarious. In November, UK inflation rose to 2.6 percent, compared with just 1.7 percent in September, while the labor market continues to show signs of cooling after a period of high job vacancies and low unemployment. Labour pinning hopes on long-term growth After winning its first general election in 19 years in 2024, the Labour Government has seen its approval ratings plummet in its first few months in office. This shaky start is partly due to a government strategy of making unpopular decisions early in their tenure, which they hope will eventually encourage stable economic growth in the mid to long-term. By far the least popular policy was the withdrawal of winter fuel benefits for a significant number of pensioners, a cost-cutting measure deemed necessary due to the UK's vulnerable public finance position, with government debt at around 100 percent of GDP. A further measure introduced was a national insurance tax increase for employers, with almost half of UK firms citing increased taxes as their main external concern in Q3 2024. Avoiding any further tax rises or cuts to services will depend on if policies in other areas, such as planning reform, will kickstart the UK economy in time before the next election.

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Community Banking Market Size 2025-2029

The community banking market size is forecast to increase by USD 253 billion at a CAGR of 5.8% between 2024 and 2029.

The market is experiencing significant shifts driven by the increasing adoption of microlending in developing nations and the rising preference for digital platforms. The microlending, a segment of community banking, is gaining traction in developing economies due to its ability to provide small loans to individuals and small businesses who lack access to traditional banking services. This trend is expected to continue, fueled by the growing financial inclusion efforts and increasing economic activity in these regions. Simultaneously, the community banking sector is witnessing a surge in the adoption of digital platforms.
The digital community banking services, such as mobile banking and online lending, are becoming increasingly popular due to their convenience and accessibility. This trend is particularly noticeable among younger demographics, who are more likely to use digital channels for banking. However, the market also faces challenges. One of the most significant obstacles is the lack of awareness about community banking services. Many potential customers, particularly in rural and underserved areas, are unaware of the benefits and availability of community banking services. Addressing this challenge will require targeted marketing efforts and community outreach programs.

What will be the Size of the Community Banking Market during the forecast period?

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The market continues to evolve, with advanced technology playing a pivotal role in shaping the landscape. Financial institutions, both large and small, are integrating microfinance, mobile banking, and remote deposit capture to cater to diverse customer needs. In the micropolitan areas, community banks have gained prominence, offering personalized services to rural and agricultural sectors. The economic recession led to a surge in digital adoption, with mobile banking becoming increasingly popular. However, the competition remains fierce, with big banks also investing heavily in technology to retain their customer base. The ongoing market dynamics underscore the need for continuous innovation and adaptation to stay competitive.
Community banks, with their focus on local markets and relationships, are well-positioned to leverage these trends and offer competitive rates and fees to attract and retain customers. The integration of advanced technology enables seamless transactions and enhanced customer experience, further bolstering their position in the market. The future of community banking lies in its ability to balance tradition and innovation, offering personalized services while embracing digital transformation.

How is this Community Banking Industry segmented?

The community banking industry research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD billion' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Area

  Metropolitan
  Rural and micropolitan


Sector

  Small business
  CRE
  Agriculture


Service Type

  Retail banking
  Commercial banking
  Wealth management and financial advisory
  Others


Delivery Model

  Branch Banking
  Online Banking
  Mobile Banking


Institution Type

  Credit Unions
  Local Banks


Geography

  North America

    US
    Canada
    Mexico


  Europe

    France
    Germany
    UK


  Middle East and Africa

    UAE


  APAC

    Australia
    China
    India
    Japan
    South Korea


  South America

    Brazil


  Rest of World (ROW)

By Area Insights

The metropolitan segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

In the dynamic world of financial services, community banks in the US continue to gain traction among consumers, particularly in rural and micropolitan areas where Big Banks may have a limited presence. While Big Banks dominate the market with their vast resources and broad reach, Community FIs cater to the unique needs of their local clientele. With the rise of advanced technology, Community banks have embraced digital banking solutions, including Internet banking, mobile banking, and remote deposit capture. Small businesses and agricultural sectors, integral to rural economies, benefit significantly from Community banks' personalized services and expertise. Despite the economic recession, these institutions have managed to maintain deposits through their strong relationships with customers.

Microlending, a niche offering, further distinguishes Community banks from their larger counterparts. Rates and fees remain crucial factors for customers, especially in a competitive market. Community banks often offer more competitive rates and lower fees compared to Big Banks, making t

Fund management activities revenue is forecast to drop at a compound annual rate of 0.9% over the five years through 2025-26 to £29.9 billion, including estimated growth of 2.5% in 2025-26. Fund managers have had to navigate turbulent markets in recent years, hit by aggressive monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and muted economic growth. Such uncertainty made investors antsy, triggering volatile capital flows and creating unstable fee income. Economic uncertainty surrounding markets amid the threat of a recession, the cost-of-living squeeze and the gilt crisis in 2022-23 all shook key investor segments, causing the first net outflow in funding in 2022 since data was first recorded. Despite conditions remaining bleak in 2023-24, financial markets made a slow recovery, with both bond and stock markets benefitting from the expectation of interest rate cuts, triggering a rally at the tail-end of the year. However, amid fierce price competition and falling fees, this wasn’t enough to offset the drop in revenue during 2023-24. Capital markets performed well in 2024-25 thanks to further interest rate cuts and excitement surrounding generative AI supporting investment activity, driving up profit. However, fund managers exposed to US markets saw hefty declines at the start of 2025 due to Trump’s erratic tariff policies, which incited fears of a recession. In 2025-26, markets will remain edgy as continued uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff policies and fears of a tech bubble prompt large sell-offs, inciting fierce volatility. Investors are shifting allocations towards Europe, looking to benefit from growing military spending from major economies like Germany, supporting profit of 19.3% in 2025-26. Revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 6% over the five years through 2030-31 to £39.9 billion. Capital markets will continue to grow in the short term, propped up by the prospect of further rate cuts. However, equity remains vulnerable because soaring stock valuations seen in recent years can lead to a severe price correction if any negative news hits markets, hurting revenue growth. Already proving a useful tool for fund managers, AI will continue to gain momentum in the coming years, especially among smaller managers looking to improve data analytics capabilities and client offerings. Fund managers will also have to navigate the changing perceptions of ESG investments, which, although hitting the headlines over recent years, are beginning to lose the interest of investors due to their lower returns. While growth in the domestic economy may be slow in the coming years, investment companies will take advantage of growing opportunities in expanding markets, despite facing fiercer competition from foreign funds.

The gross domestic product of the United Kingdom in 2024 was around 2.78 trillion British pounds, an increase when compared to the previous year, when UK GDP amounted to about 2.75 trillion pounds. The significant drop in GDP visible in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the smaller declines in 2008 and 2009 because of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Low growth problem in the UK Despite growing by 0.9 percent in 2024, and 0.4 percent in 2023 the UK economy is not that much larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since recovering from a huge fall in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy has alternated between periods of contraction and low growth, with the UK even in a recession at the end of 2023. While economic growth picked up somewhat in 2024, GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2022, following two years of negative growth. UK's global share of GDP falling As of 2024, the UK had the sixth-largest economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second-largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third-largest economy, is of a similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years, however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.16 percent in 2025 to 2.02 percent by 2029.  

A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was *** percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU. The estimated hit to the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) increases to ***** percent in 2024, and to *** percent by 2025 in this forecast. UK growth cut at start of turbulent 2025 After growing by *** percent in 2024, the UK economy is expected to grow by *** percent in 2025, down from an earlier forecast of *** percent. As of 2025, the UK economy is approximately *** percent larger than it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic five years earlier, which delivered a sudden and severe economic shock to the country. While the initial bounce back from this collapse was robust, the recovery slowed by the end of 2020, and it wasn't until late 2021 that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic size. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the economy continued to struggle, and even experienced a recession at the end of 2023. How voters feel about Brexit in 2025 Since the middle of 2021, a growing majority of voters in Britain have advised that they think Brexit was the wrong decision. As of January 2025, around ** percent thought it was wrong to leave the EU, compared with just ** percent in April 2021. By comparison, the share of Britons who think Brexit was the right decision has fallen from ** percent to ** percent in the same time period. Voters are, however, still quite divided on what relationship they want with the EU, with only ** percent supporting rejoining completely. Furthermore, Brexit has fallen behind other issues for voters such as the economy, the NHS, and immigration and the issue played a much smaller role in the 2024 election than it did in 2019.

The statistic shows GDP per capita in the United Kingdom from 1987 to 2020, with projections up until 2030. In 2020, GDP per capita in the United Kingdom was at around 40,230.55 US dollars. The same year, the total UK population amounted to about 67.26 million people. The United Kingdom is among the leading countries in a world GDP ranking.Falling unemployment in a time of recessionGDP is a useful indicator when it comes to measuring the state of a nation’s economy. GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time, usually a year. GDP per capita equals exactly the GDI (gross domestic income) per capita and is not a measure of an individual’s personal income.As can be seen clearly in the statistic, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the United Kingdom is beginning to increase, albeit not to pre-recession levels. The UK is beginning to see signs of an economic recovery, though as of yet it remains unclear what sort of recovery this is. Questions have been raised as to whether the growth being seen is the right sort of growth for a well balanced recovery across the necessary sectors. An interesting oddity occurred in the United Kingdom for nine months in 2012, which saw a decreasing unemployment occurring at the same time as dip in nationwide economic productivity. This seems like good - if not unusual - news, but could be indicative of people entering part-time employment. It could also suggest that labor productivity is falling, meaning that the UK would be less competitive as a nation. The figures continue to rise, however, with an increase in employment in the private sector. With the rate of inflation in the UK impacting everyone’s daily lives, it is becoming increasingly difficult for vulnerable groups to maintain a decent standard of living.

August 2024 marked a significant shift in the UK's monetary policy, as it saw the first reduction in the official bank base interest rate since August 2023. This change came after a period of consistent rate hikes that began in late 2021. In a bid to minimize the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of England cut the official bank base rate in March 2020 to a record low of *** percent. This historic low came just one week after the Bank of England cut rates from **** percent to **** percent in a bid to prevent mass job cuts in the United Kingdom. It remained at *** percent until December 2021 and was increased to one percent in May 2022 and to **** percent in October 2022. After that, the bank rate increased almost on a monthly basis, reaching **** percent in August 2023. It wasn't until August 2024 that the first rate decrease since the previous year occurred, signaling a potential shift in monetary policy. Why do central banks adjust interest rates? Central banks, including the Bank of England, adjust interest rates to manage economic stability and control inflation. Their strategies involve a delicate balance between two main approaches. When central banks raise interest rates, their goal is to cool down an overheated economy. Higher rates curb excessive spending and borrowing, which helps to prevent runaway inflation. This approach is typically used when the economy is growing too quickly or when inflation is rising above desired levels. Conversely, when central banks lower interest rates, they aim to encourage borrowing and investment. This strategy is employed to stimulate economic growth during periods of slowdown or recession. Lower rates make it cheaper for businesses and individuals to borrow money, which can lead to increased spending and investment. This dual approach allows central banks to maintain a balance between promoting growth and controlling inflation, ensuring long-term economic stability. Additionally, adjusting interest rates can influence currency values, impacting international trade and investment flows, further underscoring their critical role in a nation's economic health. Recent interest rate trends Between 2021 and 2025, most advanced and emerging economies experienced a period of regular interest rate hikes. This trend was driven by several factors, including persistent supply chain disruptions, high energy prices, and robust demand pressures. These elements combined to create significant inflationary trends, prompting central banks to raise rates to temper spending and borrowing. However, in 2024, a shift began to occur in global monetary policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) was among the first major central banks to reverse this trend by cutting interest rates. This move signaled a change in approach aimed at addressing growing economic slowdowns and supporting growth.

The United Kingdom's economy grew by 1.1 percent in 2024, after a growth rate of 0.3 percent in 2023, 5.1 percent in 2022, 8.5 percent in 2021, and a record ten percent fall in 2020. During the provided time period, the biggest annual fall in gross domestic product before 2020 occurred in 2009, when the UK economy contracted by 4.6 percent at the height of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Before 2021, the year with the highest annual GDP growth rate was 1973, when the UK economy grew by 6.5 percent. UK economy growing but GDP per capita falling In 2022, the UK's GDP per capita amounted to approximately 37,371 pounds, with this falling to 37,028 pounds in 2023, and 36,977 pounds in 2024. While the UK economy as a whole grew during this time, the UK's population grew at a faster rate, resulting in the negative growth in GDP per capita. This suggests the UK economy's struggles with productivity are not only stagnating, but getting worse. The relatively poor economic performance of the UK in recent years has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, with the economy consistently seen as the most important issue for voters since 2022. Recent shocks to UK economy In the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy shrank by a record 20.3 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a relatively swift economic recovery initially, the economy has struggled to grow much beyond its pre-pandemic size, and was only around 3.1 percent larger in December 2024, when compared with December 2019. Although the labor market has generally been quite resilient during this time, a long twenty-month period between 2021 and 2023 saw prices rise faster than wages, and inflation surge to a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022.

Government spending in the United Kingdom was approximately 44.7 percent of GDP in 2024/25, compared with 39.6 percent in 2019/20.

The government of the United Kingdom borrowed approximately 2.6 percent worth of its GDP in the 2024/25 financial year, compared with 2.3 percent in 2023/24. In 2020/21, government borrowing reached 11.6 percent of GDP, due to increased financial support to public services during the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with reduced revenue because of societal lockdowns.

As of the third quarter of 2025, the CPIH index in the United Kingdom was *****, indicating that consumer goods and services had increased in price by **** percent when compared with the baseline year of 2015. In September 2025, the CPIH inflation rate was *** percent, compared with *** percent at the start of 2025. The CPIH index is the consumer price index, which also includes costs related to owning and maintaining a home. Inflation falls to more usual levels in 2024 After reaching a peak of *** percent in October 2022, the CPIH inflation rate fell throughout 2023 and into 2024, eventually falling to a low of *** percent in October 2024. Although the decline in energy inflation led to a significant fall in prices early in the 2023, other aspects of inflation, such as food prices remained high for a longer period. Throughout 2023 inflation in the UK was still quite high across many sectors, indicated by persistently high core inflation (inflation excluding food and energy prices) rates reported that year. UK economy continues to struggle Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK's economic performance has been quite lackluster. Although the economy bounced back from the initial drop in GDP caused by lockdowns, it has alternated between months of low growth and declines in GDP since 2021. In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by *** percent and then by *** percent. As a result, the UK economy officially ended 2023 in a technical recession. While growth picked up in the first half of 2024, there was no growth in the third quarter of the year.

This statistic shows the national debt of the United Kingdom from 2020 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, the national debt in the United Kingdom was about 3.91 trillion U.S. dollars. Reduction of the national debt and recovery of the economy in the UK The debt of the United Kingdom, which amounted to around 1,600 billion pounds in 2014 - more than it has ever been - is projected to keep rising. Since the economic recession of 2007-08, economic growth in the United Kingdom has been slow, but it has been able to recover. In 2014, the United Kingdom recorded a 2.8 percent growth rate. Many believe that if the economy is stable, the government will reduce spending and not accrue any more debt, and it can indeed be seen that while government spending continues to increase, the gap between spending and revenue is projected to get smaller. If the government were to earn more than it spends, it could use the money left over to pay the national debt and start to reduce it. However, what is even more important is the size of the debt in relation to the size of the country's economy; if the debt grows slower than the economy, the debt to GDP ratio can still fall, despite a budget deficit. The ratio of government expenditure to GDP indicates that the economy is recovering at a faster rate than government expenditure, with the ratio decreasing significantly over the last decade and the national debt in relation to GDP being expected to decrease further as well - albeit slowly. This should help relieve concerns over the United Kingdom’s mounting debt, but for some debt reduction is just not fast enough.

After reaching a peak of 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, the CPI inflation rate in the United Kingdom has fallen considerably, and was just two percent in the third quarter of 2024. In 2025, there has been an uptick in inflation, with prices increasing by 3.9 percent in the third quarter of the year. CPI inflation is however expected to fall in the last quarter of 2025, and continue to decline in 2026. Inflation and the Cost of Living The high inflation experienced by the UK since late 2021 is one of the main factors behind the country's ongoing cost of living crisis. Price surges, in relation to food and energy costs in particular, played havoc with the finances of UK households. At the height of the crisis, around nine out of ten households were experiencing a cost of living increase compared to the previous month. Although inflation has eased since reaching a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, and wages are growing in real terms, approximately 63 percent of households were still experiencing rising costs relative to the previous month in October 2025. Economic growth downgraded for 2025 Since 2022, the economy has generally been one of the main issue for UK voters, seen by 53 percent of people as one of the top three issues facing the country in November 2025. Throughout this time, UK households have struggled through a cost of living crisis, while the wider economy has been unable to achieve consistently strong growth. Since the first quarter of 2022, the UK economy has alternated between periods of low growth and minor contractions, with the UK even in recession at the end of 2023. While there was a slight uptick in growth in 2024, this momentum appears to have already been lost, with the UK's economic growth forecast downgraded from two percent to one percent, at the start of the year.