Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United Kingdom from the Peak through the Trough (GBRRECDM) from 1955-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and United Kingdom.

The UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in January 2025 after growing by 0.4 percent in December. Since a huge decline in GDP in April 2020, the UK economy has gradually recovered and is now around 3.4 percent larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. After the initial recovery from the pandemic, however, the UK economy has effectively flatlined, fluctuating between low growth and small contractions since January 2022. Labour banking on growth to turn around fortunes in 2025 In February 2025, just over half a year after winning the last general election, the approval rating for the new Labour government fell to a low of -48 percent. Furthermore, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer was not only less popular than the new Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, but also the leader of the Reform Party, Nigel Farage, whose party have surged in opinion polls recently. This remarkable decline in popularity for the new government is, in some part, due to a deliberate policy of making tough decisions early. Arguably, the most damaging of these policies was the withdrawal of the winter fuel allowance for some pensioners, although other factors such as a controversy about gifts and donations also hurt the government. While Labour aims to restore the UK's economic and political credibility in the long term, they will certainly hope for some good economic news sooner rather than later. Economy bounces back in 2024 after ending 2023 in recession Due to two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, in late 2023 the UK economy ended the year in recession. After not growing at all in the second quarter of 2023, UK GDP fell by 0.1 percent in the third quarter, and then by 0.3 percent in the last quarter. For the whole of 2023, the economy grew by 0.4 percent compared to 2022, and for 2024 is forecast to have grown by 1.1 percent. During the first two quarters of 2024, UK GDP grew by 0.7 percent, and 0.4 percent, with this relatively strong growth followed by zero percent growth in the third quarter of the year. Although the economy had started to grow again by the time of the 2024 general election, this was not enough to save the Conservative government at the time. Despite usually seen as the best party for handling the economy, the Conservative's economic competency was behind that of Labour on the eve of the 2024 election.

The United Kingdom's economy grew by 0.9 percent in 2024, after a growth rate of 0.4 percent in 2023, 4.8 percent in 2022, 8.6 percent in 2021, and a record 10.3 percent fall in 2020. During the provided time period, the biggest annual fall in gross domestic product before 2020 occurred in 2009, when the UK economy contracted by 4.6 percent at the height of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Before 2021, the year with the highest annual GDP growth rate was 1973, when the UK economy grew by 6.5 percent. UK economy growing but GDP per capita falling In 2022, the UK's GDP per capita amounted to approximately 37,371 pounds, with this falling to 37,028 pounds in 2023, and 36,977 pounds in 2024. While the UK economy as a whole grew during this time, the UK's population grew at a faster rate, resulting in the negative growth in GDP per capita. This suggests the UK economy's struggles with productivity are not only stagnating, but getting worse. The relatively poor economic performance of the UK in recent years has not gone unnoticed by the electorate, with the economy consistently seen as the most important issue for voters since 2022. Recent shocks to UK economy In the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy shrank by a record 20.3 percent at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although there was a relatively swift economic recovery initially, the economy has struggled to grow much beyond its pre-pandemic size, and was only around 3.1 percent larger in December 2024, when compared with December 2019. Although the labor market has generally been quite resilient during this time, a long twenty-month period between 2021 and 2023 saw prices rise faster than wages, and inflation surge to a high of 11.1 percent in October 2022.

The gross domestic product of the United Kingdom was around 2.56 trillion British pounds, an increase when compared to the previous year, when UK GDP amounted to about 2.54 trillion pounds. The significant drop in GDP visible in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the smaller declines in 2008 and 2009 because of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Low growth problem in the UK Despite growing by 0.9 percent in 2024, and 0.4 percent in 2023 the UK economy is not that much larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since recovering from a huge fall in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy has alternated between periods of contraction and low growth, with the UK even in a recession at the end of 2023. While economic growth picked up somewhat in 2024, GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2022, following two years of negative growth. How big is the UK economy in relation to the rest of the world? As of 2024, the UK had the sixth-largest economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second-largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third-largest economy, is of a similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years, however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.16 percent in 2025 to 2.02 percent by 2029.  

In 2024, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United Kingdom grew by 0.9 percent and is expected to grow by just one percent in 2025 and by 1.9 percent in 2026. Growth is expected to slow down to 1.8 percent in 2027, and then grow by 1.7, and 1.8 percent in 2027 and 2028 respectively. The sudden emergence of COVID-19 in 2020 and subsequent closure of large parts of the economy were the cause of the huge 9.4 percent contraction in 2020, with the economy recovering somewhat in 2021, when the economy grew by 7.6 percent. UK slips into recession in late 2023 In the last two quarters of 2023, the UK economy shrank by 0.1 percent in Q3 and by 0.3 percent in Q4, plunging the UK into recession for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic. Even before this latest recession, however, the UK economy has been struggling with weak growth. In the eight quarters between 2022 and 2023, the economy grew in just half of them, falling in three, and stagnating in one. As the UK gears up for a likely general election in 2024, the economy has consistently been seen as one of the most important issues to people in Britain, ahead of health, immigration and the environment. As for which political party would handle the economy better, the ruling-Conservative party have trailed the Labour Party on this issue in polls since October 2022. High inflation persisting longer than expected One of the main factors that explains the UK's economic woes recently is rising prices. UK inflation accelerated sharply from late 2021 onwards, and reached a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Unfortunately for UK residents, wage growth has only recently caught up with inflation, with wages in real terms falling throughout for twenty months between November 2021 and June 2023. By January 2024, inflation had fallen to the more modest rate of four percent, but getting inflation down to such levels came at a price. The Bank of England raised interest rates throughout 2022 and 2023, which certainly played a part in the UK's weak economic performance during that time.

The UK economy grew by 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with zero growth in the previous quarter. After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy grew quite strongly in the first half of 2024, growing by 0.8 percent in Q1, and 0.4 percent in Q2, with growth slowing in the second half of the year. In the third quarter of 2020 the UK experienced record setting growth of 16.8 percent, which itself followed the record 20.3 percent contraction in Q2 2020. Growing economy key to Labour's plans Since winning the 2024 general election, the UK's Labour Party have seen their popularity fall substantially. In February 2025, the government's approval rating fell to a low of -54 percent, making them almost as disliked as the Conservatives just before the last election. A string of unpopular policies since taking office have taken a heavy toll on support for the government. Labour hope they can reverse their declining popularity by growing the economy, which has underperformed for several years, and when measured in GDP per capita, fell in 2023, and 2024. Steady labor market trends set to continue? After a robust 2022, the UK labor market remained resilient throughout 2023 and 2024. The unemployment rate at the end of 2024 was 4.4 percent, up from four percent at the start of the year, but still one of the lowest rates on record. While the average number of job vacancies has been falling since a May 2022 peak, there was a slight increase in January 2025 when compared with the previous month. The more concerning aspect of the labor market, from the government's perspective, are the high levels of economic inactivity due to long-term sickness, which reached a peak of 2.84 million in late 2023, and remained at high levels throughout 2024.

The statistic shows the growth rate in the real GDP in the United Kingdom from 2019 to 2023, with projections up until 2029. In 2023, the rate of GDP growth in the United Kingdom was at around 0.34 percent compared to the previous year.The economy of the United KingdomGDP is used an indicator as to the shape of a national economy. It is one of the most regularly called upon measurements regarding the economic fitness of a country. GDP is the total market value of all final goods and services that have been produced in a country within a given period of time, usually a year. Inflation adjusted real GDP figures serve as an even more telling indication of a country’s economic state in that they act as a more reliable and clear tool as to a nation’s economic health. The gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the United Kingdom has started to level in recent years after taking a huge body blow in the financial collapse of 2008. The UK managed to rise from the state of dark desperation it was in between 2009 and 2010, from -3.97 to 1.8 percent. The country suffered acutely from the collapse of the banking industry, raising a number of questions within the UK with regards to the country’s heavy reliance on revenues coming from London's financial sector, arguably the most important in the world and one of the globe’s financial command centers. Since the collapse of the post-war consensus and the rise of Thatcherism, the United Kingdom has been swept along in a wave of individualism - collective ideals have been abandoned and the mass privatisation of the heavy industries was unveiled - opening them up to market competition and shifting the economic focus to that of service.The Big Bang policy, one of the cornerstones of the Thatcher government programs of reform, involved mass and sudden deregulation of financial markets. This led to huge changes in the way the financial markets in London work, and saw the many old firms being absorbed by big banks. This, one could argue, strengthened the UK financial sector greatly and while frivolous and dangerous practices brought the sector into great disrepute, the city of London alone brings in around one fifth of the countries national income making it a very prominent contributor to wealth in the UK.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the quarterly gross domestic product of the United Kingdom was approximately, 641 billion British pounds, compared with around 632.4 billion pounds in the same quarter. The large dip in GDP that can be seen in the second quarter of 2020 saw the UK economy fall from 604.7 billion pounds to 481.8 billion, with more usual levels of output not recovering until well into 2021. The COVID-19 lockdowns enacted by the UK government at that time was the main reason for this large fall in GDP. Growth lagging as UK heads into 2025 After ending 2023 in recession, the UK economy started 2024 with the strongest quarterly GDP growth in several years, growing by 0.7 percent in the first quarter, and then by 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Economic growth in the second half of the year was, however, far less promising, with GDP flatlining in the third quarter, and monthly GDP shrinking by 0.1 percent in September and then again in October. Although GDP is still forecast to grow in 2025, the overall economic picture is precarious. In November, UK inflation rose to 2.6 percent, compared with just 1.7 percent in September, while the labor market continues to show signs of cooling after a period of high job vacancies and low unemployment. Labour pinning hopes on long-term growth After winning its first general election in 19 years in 2024, the Labour Government has seen its approval ratings plummet in its first few months in office. This shaky start is partly due to a government strategy of making unpopular decisions early in their tenure, which they hope will eventually encourage stable economic growth in the mid to long-term. By far the least popular policy was the withdrawal of winter fuel benefits for a significant number of pensioners, a cost-cutting measure deemed necessary due to the UK's vulnerable public finance position, with government debt at around 100 percent of GDP. A further measure introduced was a national insurance tax increase for employers, with almost half of UK firms citing increased taxes as their main external concern in Q3 2024. Avoiding any further tax rises or cuts to services will depend on if policies in other areas, such as planning reform, will kickstart the UK economy in time before the next election.

The statistic shows GDP per capita in the United Kingdom from 1987 to 2020, with projections up until 2029. In 2020, GDP per capita in the United Kingdom was at around 40,230.55 US dollars. The same year, the total UK population amounted to about 67.26 million people. The United Kingdom is among the leading countries in a world GDP ranking.Falling unemployment in a time of recessionGDP is a useful indicator when it comes to measuring the state of a nation’s economy. GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time, usually a year. GDP per capita equals exactly the GDI (gross domestic income) per capita and is not a measure of an individual’s personal income.As can be seen clearly in the statistic, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the United Kingdom is beginning to increase, albeit not to pre-recession levels. The UK is beginning to see signs of an economic recovery, though as of yet it remains unclear what sort of recovery this is. Questions have been raised as to whether the growth being seen is the right sort of growth for a well balanced recovery across the necessary sectors. An interesting oddity occurred in the United Kingdom for nine months in 2012, which saw a decreasing unemployment occurring at the same time as dip in nationwide economic productivity. This seems like good - if not unusual - news, but could be indicative of people entering part-time employment. It could also suggest that labor productivity is falling, meaning that the UK would be less competitive as a nation. The figures continue to rise, however, with an increase in employment in the private sector. With the rate of inflation in the UK impacting everyone’s daily lives, it is becoming increasingly difficult for vulnerable groups to maintain a decent standard of living.

Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union, gross domestic products (GDP) decreased in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, by 2021, growth rates were positive in all four areas again. The United Kingdom, Germany, and the European Union all experiencing slow economic growth in 2023 amid high inflation, with Germany even seeing an economic recession. GDP and its components GDP refers to the total market value of all goods and services that are produced within a country per year. It is composed of government spending, consumption, business investments and net exports. It is an important indicator to measure the economic strength of a country. Economists rely on a variety of factors when predicting future performance of the GDP. Inflation rate is one of the economic indicators providing insight into the future behavior of households, which make up a significant proportion of GDP. Projections are based on the past performance of such information. Future considerations Some factors can be more easily predicted than others. For example, projections of the annual inflation rate of the United States are easy to come by. However, the intensity and impact of something like Brexit is difficult to predict. Moreover, the occurrence and impact of events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war in Ukraine is difficult to foresee. Hence, actual GDP growth may be higher or lower than the original estimates.

From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.

In January 2025, the employment rate in the United Kingdom was 74.9 percent, up from 74.7 percent in the same period a year earlier. After almost dropping below 70 percent in 2011, the employment rate in the United Kingdom started to climb at a relatively fast pace, peaking in early 2020. Due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the employment declined to 74.6 percent by January 2021. Although not quite at pre-pandemic levels, the employment rate has since recovered. Hot UK labor market cools in 2023 Although unemployment in the UK spiked at 5.1 percent in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, it fell throughout most of 2022, to just 3.6 percent in August 2022. Around that time, the number of job vacancies in the UK was also at quite high levels, reaching a peak of 1.3 million by May 2022. The strong labor market put employees in quite a strong position, perhaps encouraging the high number of resignations that took place around that time. While wage growth has also been strong since 2022, these gains were cancelled-out for a long period between 2021 and 2023 when inflation grew faster than wages. By July 2023, unemployment had bounced back to 4.3 percent, while the number of job vacancies fell below one million in August 2023 for the first time since August 2021. UK in recession at end of 2023 Although the UK labor market has loosened since 2022, it has generally remained in good health, with unemployment low by historical standards. Inflation also fell throughout 2023, from 10.1 percent at the beginning of the year, to four percent by December. Getting inflation down to more acceptable levels, however, came at the expense of raising the Bank of England's already high-interest rate throughout 2023. The knock-on effect of higher borrowing costs likely did little to spur economic growth that year, with GDP growing by just 0.1 percent in 2023. Even this meager economic growth was only achieved due to growth in the first half of the year. In the second half of 2023, the economy shrank in two consecutive quarters, meaning the UK is officially in recession heading into a probable election year.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.The Skills Survey is a series of nationally representative sample surveys of individuals in employment aged 20-60 years old (since 2006, the surveys have additionally sampled those aged 61-65). The surveys aim to investigate the employed workforce in Great Britain. Although they were not originally planned as part of a series and had different funding sources and objectives, continuity in questionnaire design has meant the surveys now provide a unique, national representative picture of change in British workplaces as reported by individual job holders. This allows analysts to examine how various aspects of job quality and skill levels have changed over 30 years.The first surveys in the series were carried out in 1986 and 1992. These surveys also form part of this integrated data series, and are known as the Social Change and Economic Life Initiative (SCELI) and Employment in Britain (EIB) studies respectively.The 1997 survey was the first to collect primarily data on skills using the job requirements approach. This focused on collecting data on objective indicators of job skill as reported by respondents. The 2001 survey assessed how much had changed between the two surveys and a third survey in 2006 enhanced the time series data, while providing a resource for analysing skill and job requirements in the British economy at that time. The 2012 survey aimed to again add to the time series data and, coinciding as it did with a period of economic recession, to provide insight into whether workers in Britain felt under additional pressure/demand from employers as a result of redundancies and cut backs. In addition, a series dataset, covering 1986, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2006 and 2012 is also available . A follow-up to the 2012 survey was conducted in 2014, revisiting respondents who had agreed to be interviewed again. The 2017 survey was the seventh in the series, designed to examine to what extent pressures had continued as a result of austerity and economic uncertainties triggered, for example, by Brexit as well as examining additional issues such as productivity, fairness at work and the retirement intentions of older workers.Each survey comprises a large number of respondents: 4,047 in the 1986 survey; 3,855 in 1992; 2,467 in 1997; 4,470 in 2001; 7,787 in 2006; 3,200 in 2012; and 3,306 in 2017. The project to carry out the 2017 survey was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), Cardiff University and the Department for Education with funding from the Welsh Government to boost the sample in Wales (ES/P005292/1). The four specific objectives for SES2017, stemming from the overarching aim (to provide data on the skills and employment experiences of working life in Britain in 2017) were as follows: To chart the level and distribution of, and changes to, some of the key drivers of productivity such as work organisation, job-related well-being, the skills requirements of jobs, and the incidence, volume and quality of training and learning.To describe and analyse the level and distribution of key aspects of job quality in 2017 – such as employee involvement, work intensity, insecurity and well-being at work – and make comparisons with earlier data points in the series.To use the data to develop distinctive, original and substantive contributions to scholarship surrounding job quality and job skill, and the connections these aspects of work have with productivity and innovation.To make the data available and provide the necessary documentary material to allow further analyses by academic and policy-based researchers in the field of skills and job quality.Further information may be found on the Cardiff University Skills and Employment Survey 2017 and How Good is My Job websites.A standard End User Licence version of the SES2017 is available under SN 8581. It contains less detailed geographical information, covering Government Office Regions. Users are advised to download SN 8581 to see if it is suitable for their requirements before making an application for this study (SN 8581), the Special Licence version. Main Topics: Multi-stage stratified random sample Face-to-face interview

A recent analysis on the impact of Brexit suggests that in 2023, the United Kingdom's economy was 2.5 percent smaller than it would have been in a base scenario where the UK never left the EU. The estimated hit to the UK's gross domestic product (GDP) increases to three percent in 2024, and to 3.2 percent by 2025 in this forecast. UK economy starts 2024 strongly As of March 2024, the UK economy is approximately 2.6 percent larger than it was just before the COVID-19 pandemic, which delivered a sudden and severe economic shock to the country in early 2020. While the initial bounce back from this collapse was robust, the recovery slowed by the end of 2020, and it wasn't until late 2021 that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic size. Throughout 2022 and 2023, the economy continued to struggle, and even experienced a recession at the end of 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, however, the UK economy grew by 0.6 percent, the fastest quarterly growth since late 2021, and a potential sign that the UK economy has turned a corner. How voters feel about Brexit in 2024 Since the middle of 2021, a growing majority of voters in Britain have advised that they think Brexit was the wrong decision. As of May 2024, around 55 percent thought it was wrong to leave the EU, compared with just 43 percent in April 2021. By comparison, the share of Britons who think Brexit was the right decision has fallen from 46 percent to 31 percent in the same time period. Voters are, however, still quite divided on what relationship they want with the EU, with only 31 percent supporting rejoining completely. Furthermore, Brexit has fallen behind other issues for voters such as the economy, the NHS, and immigration and will play a much smaller role in the 2024 election than it did in 2019.

Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.

The Skills Survey is a series of nationally representative sample surveys of individuals in employment aged 20-60 years old (since 2006, the surveys have additionally sampled those aged 61-65). The surveys aim to investigate the employed workforce in Great Britain. Although they were not originally planned as part of a series and had different funding sources and objectives, continuity in questionnaire design has meant the surveys now provide a unique, national representative picture of change in British workplaces as reported by individual job holders. This allows analysts to examine how various aspects of job quality and skill levels have changed over 30 years.The first surveys in the series were carried out in 1986 and 1992. These surveys also form part of this integrated data series, and are known as the Social Change and Economic Life Initiative (SCELI) and Employment in Britain (EIB) studies respectively.

The 1997 survey was the first to collect primarily data on skills using the job requirements approach. This focused on collecting data on objective indicators of job skill as reported by respondents. The 2001 survey assessed how much had changed between the two surveys and a third survey in 2006 enhanced the time series data, while providing a resource for analysing skill and job requirements in the British economy at that time. The 2012 survey aimed to again add to the time series data and, coinciding as it did with a period of economic recession, to provide insight into whether workers in Britain felt under additional pressure/demand from employers as a result of redundancies and cut backs. In addition, a series dataset, covering 1986, 1992, 1997, 2001, 2006 and 2012 is also available . A follow-up to the 2012 survey was conducted in 2014, revisiting respondents who had agreed to be interviewed again. The 2017 survey was the seventh in the series, designed to examine to what extent pressures had continued as a result of austerity and economic uncertainties triggered, for example, by Brexit as well as examining additional issues such as productivity, fairness at work and the retirement intentions of older workers.

Each survey comprises a large number of respondents: 4,047 in the 1986 survey; 3,855 in 1992; 2,467 in 1997; 4,470 in 2001; 7,787 in 2006; 3,200 in 2012; and 3,306 in 2017.

The project to carry out the 2017 survey was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), Cardiff University and the Department for Education with funding from the Welsh Government to boost the sample in Wales (ES/P005292/1).

The four specific objectives for SES2017, stemming from the overarching aim (to provide data on the skills and employment experiences of working life in Britain in 2017) were as follows:

1. To chart the level and distribution of, and changes to, some of the key drivers of productivity such as work organisation, job-related well-being, the skills requirements of jobs, and the incidence, volume and quality of training and learning.
2. To describe and analyse the level and distribution of key aspects of job quality in 2017 – such as employee involvement, work intensity, insecurity and well-being at work – and make comparisons with earlier data points in the series.
3. To use the data to develop distinctive, original and substantive contributions to scholarship surrounding job quality and job skill, and the connections these aspects of work have with productivity and innovation.
4. To make the data available and provide the necessary documentary material to allow further analyses by academic and policy-based researchers in the field of skills and job quality.

Further information may be found on the Cardiff University Skills and Employment Survey 2017 and How Good is My Job websites.

A standard End User Licence version of the SES2017 is available under SN 8581. It contains less detailed geographical information, covering Government Office Regions. Users are advised to download SN 8581 to see if it is suitable for their requirements before making an application for this study (SN 8581), the Special Licence version.
Main Topics:

In 2024, the annual unemployment rate of the United Kingdom is expected to be 4.3 percent, compared with four percent in 2023. Unemployment is forecast to fall to 4.1 percent in 2025, before falling again to four percent in 2026. A common indicator of an economy’s relative health, the unemployment rate has generally been falling in the United Kingdom since its 2011 peak of 8.1 percent. Uptick in unemployment in 2023 In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom grew steadily, from just 3.9 percent at the start of 2020, to 5.1 percent by the end of the year. This was followed by a steep decline in unemployment that lasted until August 2022, when the unemployment rate was just 3.5 percent. There was a slight uptick in unemployment following this low, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3 percent the following July. This has been matched by a fall in the number of UK job vacancies, which reached a peak of 1.3 million in May 2022, but has been falling in every subsequent month, with approximately 932,000 vacancies in January 2024. Other UK key economic indicators Although the UK's labor market was quite well protected from the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, other parts of the economy took a more severe hit. The initial lockdown measures resulted in a huge fall to UK GDP, in April 2020 which took over a year to reach its pre-pandemic size. Economic growth has remained sluggish ever since the initial recovery, with the UK economy alternating between weak growth and slight contractions. The UK even entered a technical recession at the end of 2023, following two quarters of negative growth. Inflation also skyrocketed from late 2021 onwards, reaching a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Even one year after that peak, inflation has proven stubborn to get down, with a rate of 4.6 percent in October 2023.

The gross domestic product (GDP) of all G7 countries decreased sharply in 2009 and 2020 due to the financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. The growth decline was heavier after the COVID-19 pandemic than the financial crisis. Moreover, Italy had a negative GDP growth rate in 2012 and 2013 following the euro crisis. In 2023, Germany experienced an economic recession.

One of the major duties the Bank of England (BoE) is tasked with is keeping inflation rates low and stable. The usual tactic for keeping inflation rates down, and therefore the price of goods and services stable by the Bank of England is through lowering the Bank Rate. Such a measure was used in 2008 during the global recession when the BoE lowered the bank base rate from 5 percent to 0.5 percent. Due to the economic fears surrounding the COVID-19 virus, as of the 19th of March 2020, the bank base rate was set to its lowest ever standing. The issue with lowering interest rates is that there is an end limit as to how low they can go.

Quantitative easing

Quantitative easing is a measure that central banks can use to inject money into the economy to hopefully boost spending and investment. Quantitative easing is the creation of digital money in order to purchase government bonds. By purchasing large amounts of government bonds, the interest rates on those bonds lower. This in turn means that the interest rates offered on loans for the purchasing of mortgages or business loans also lowers, encouraging spending and stimulating the economy.

Large enterprises jump at the opportunity

After the initial stimulus of 200 billion British pounds through quantitative easing in March 2020, the Bank of England announced in June that they would increase the amount by a further one hundred billion British pounds. In March of 2020, the headline flow of borrowing by non-financial industries including construction, transport, real estate and the manufacturing sectors increased significantly.

This statistic shows total domestic consumption expenditure in the United Kingdom (UK) from 2005 to 2023. In 2023, consumer spending in the UK increased compared to the previous year, and amounted to approximately 1.6 trillion British pounds. Household consumption expenditure looks at the overall spending on consumer goods and services of a wide variety. Some examples are government licenses and permits, such as a passport renewal or the price of train tickets to get to work. Housing may also be accounted for in these figures. This figure is measured by how much the consumer actually pays at the point of sale. All fast moving consumer goods such a beer, or cigarettes are also accounted for in this data. One part of the United Kingdom, Scotland, has seen as increase in its overall household expenditure year over year since 2009, with figures reaching over 100 billion British pounds in 2018. There was a small decrease in expenditure in 2009, which was possibly a result of the economic recession which hit all of the United Kingdom hard at this time. This drop can also be seen when looking at the whole of the United Kingdom in this statistic.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.