This publication provides key statistics relating to the reoffending of offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution. Latest figures for the three-month April to June 2023 offender cohort are provided.

We regularly carry out work to improve our statistics and geography breakdowns, therefore please refer to the latest publication for the most up-to-date figures.

The bulletin is produced and handled by the Ministry’s analytical professionals and production staff.

Pre-release access of up to 24 hours is granted to the following persons:

• Ministry of Justice: Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice; Minister of State; Permanent Secretary; Deputy Director, Reducing Reoffending; Deputy Director, Service Design; Deputy Director of Probation Policy; Deputy Director, Public Protection Group; Deputy Director, Data and Analysis; relevant private secretaries, special advisors (x1); press officers (x5); analysts (x6); and policy officials (x3).
• Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS): Director General CEO, Head Of Assurance and Performance, Director General and Chief Operating Officer Prisons; Deputy Director, Reducing Reoffending; and policy official (x1).
• Youth Justice Board (YJB): YJB analysts (x1).

Earlier editions: Proven reoffending

Proven reoffending quarterly - July 2010 to June 2011

This report provides key statistics on proven re-offending in England and Wales. It gives proven re-offending figures for offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, received a caution, reprimand, warning or tested positive for opiates or cocaine between July 2010 and June 2011. Proven re-offending is defined as any offence committed in a one year follow-up period and receiving a court conviction, caution, reprimand or warning in the one year follow-up. Following this one year period, a further six month waiting period is allowed for cases to progress through the courts.

Between July 2010 and June 2011, around 630,000 offenders were cautioned, convicted (excluding immediate custodial sentences) or released from custody. Around 170,000 of these offenders committed a proven re-offence within a year. This gives a one year proven re-offending rate of 26.9 per cent, which represents a rise of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 1.0 percentage points since 2000.

These re-offenders committed an average of 2.88 re-offences each. In total, this represents around 490,000 re-offences of which 82 per cent were committed by adults and 18 per cent were committed by juveniles.

• 56.5 per cent (around 280,000) were committed by re-offenders with 11 or more previous offences.

• 0.7 per cent (around 3,300) were serious violent/sexual proven re-offences.

• 5.1 per cent (around 25,000) were committed by re-offenders on the Prolific and other Priority Offender Programme (PPO).

Key trends in proven re-offending

Adult offenders

Around 550,000 adult offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody between July 2010 and June 2011. Around 140,000 of them committed a re-offence. This gives a proven re-offending rate of 25.5 per cent, which represents an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 0.7 percentage points since 2000.

However, compared to 2000, the offenders in the 12 months ending June 2011 had characteristics which meant they were more likely to re-offend. This means that, after controlling for offender characteristics, the decrease was larger at 3.1 percentage points.

The average number of re-offences per re-offender was 2.88, a rise of 2.4 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 14.9 per cent compared to 2000.

Looking at specific groups within the cohort:

• The proven re-offending rate for those released from custody was 46.9 per cent, a fall of 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a fall of 2.5 percentage points since 2000. The average number of re-offences committed per re-offender for this group was 4.19, an increase of 3.1 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and down 10.5 per cent since 2000.

• The proven re-offending rate for those starting a court order (Community Order or Suspended Sentence Order) was 34.2 per cent, a rise of 0.2 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and down 3.7 percentage points since 2000. The average number of re-offences per re-offender was 3.21, up 2.6 per cent compared to the previous 12 months and down 17.0 per cent since 2000.

• The proven re-offending rate for drug-misusing offenders (all offenders who are given drug orders as part of their sentence or test positive for opiates upon arrest) was 57.2 per cent, up 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months.

Juvenile offenders

Around 83,000 juvenile offenders were cautioned, convicted or released from custody between July 2010 and June 2011. Around 30,000 of them committed a re-offence. This gives a proven re-offending rate of 36.0 per cent. This represents an increase in the rate of 1.9 percentage points compared to the previous 12 months and a rise of 2.4 percentage points since 2000.

However, the cohort has changed considerably over the period since 2000; it is now 40 per cent smaller, and is comprised of offenders whose characteristics mean they are more likely to re-offend than those in the 2000 cohort. In order to account for this, we can control for changes in offender characteristics to give a more consistent view of changes over time. After controlling for these changes, the proven re-offending rate has actually decreased by 1.0 percentage points since 2000.

The average number of re-offences per re-offender was 2.88,

The report is released by the Ministry of Justice and produced in accordance with arrangements approved by the UK Statistics Authority.

For further information about the Justice Data Lab, please refer to the following guidance:

http://www.justice.gov.uk/justice-data-lab" class="govuk-link">http://www.justice.gov.uk/justice-data-lab

Key findings this quarter

Two requests are being published this quarter: The Thinking Skills Programme (2010-2019), and Lancashire Women – second request (2015-2021).

The Thinking Skills Programme (2010 – 2019)

There are two Thinking Skills Programme (TSP) reports which evaluate (a) the impact on reoffending behaviour, and (b) the impact on prison misconduct, for individuals who participated in the TSP. The TSP is an accredited offending behaviour programme designed and delivered by His Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS).

Impact evaluation of prison-based TSP on reoffending

The reoffending study involved a treatment group of 20,293 adults (18,555 males, 1,738 females) who participated in the TSP in custody between 2010 and 2019. Proven reoffending was measured over a two-year period from the point of release from custody.

Over a two-year period from release, men who participated in the TSP were less likely to reoffend, reoffended less frequently, and took longer to reoffend, compared to similar males who did not participate in the TSP. These results were statistically significant and the effect sizes were very small.

Results indicated that over a two-year period following release, females who participated in the TSP reoffended less frequently, compared to similar females who did not participate in the TSP. These results were statistically significant with very small effect sizes.

Impact evaluation of the TSP on prison misconduct

The prison misconduct study involved a treatment group of 13,891 adults (12,938 males, and 953 females) who participated in the TSP between 2011 and 2019.

The male headline analysis results showed that over a 6-month period after starting the TSP those who had participated were less likely to receive an adjudication compared to males who did not participate in the TSP and received an adjudication less frequently. These results had very small effect sizes and were statistically significant.

The female headline analyses showed that over a 6-month period after starting the TSP females who had participated in the TSP received any form of adjudication less frequently compared to those who did not participate in the TSP. This result had a very small effect size and was statistically significant.

Lancashire Women – Second request (2015-2021)

Lancashire Women support women involved, or at risk of involvement, in the criminal justice system. The gender specific organisation offers support around societal stigmas, housing, emotional wellbeing, education, employment, and family and relationships. This is the second JDL evaluation for Lancashire Women, looking at programme participants between 2015 and 2021.

The overall results show that those who took part in the Lancashire Women were less likely to reoffend, reoffended less frequently and took longer to reoffend than those who did not take part. These results were statistically significant.

Justice Data Lab service: available reoffending data

The Justice Data Lab team have brought in reoffending data for the second quarter of 2021 into the service. It is now possible for an organisation to submit information on the individuals it was working with up to the end of June 2021, in addition to during the years 2002 to 2020.

Pre-release access

The bulletins are produced and handled by the Ministry’s analytical professionals and production staff. Pre-release access of up to 24 hours is granted to the following persons: Minister of State, Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice, Special Advisers, Permanent Secretary, Deputy Head of News, 1 Director General, 6 press officers, 18 policy officials, and 5 analytical officials. Relevant Special Advisers and Private Office staff of Ministers and senior officials may have access to pre-release figures to inform briefing and handling arrangements.

This publication provides key statistics relating to the reoffending of offenders who were released from custody, received a non-custodial conviction at court, or received a caution. Latest figures for the three-monthly July to September 2020 offender cohort are provided.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1049654/proven-reoffending-jan20-mar20-annual_Final.ods">Link to latest annual offender cohort figures.

As part of this edition of the proven reoffending statistics, the following are also being released:

• Annex A: Proven reoffending rates for restricted patients statistics (2016/17 to 2019/20)

• Ad hoc statistical release: Proven reoffending of adult offenders within 14 days of release from prison, by day of release (July - September 2016 to July - September 2020)

We regularly carry out work to improve our statistics and geography breakdowns, therefore please refer to the latest publication for the most up to date figures.

The bulletin is produced and handled by the Ministry’s analytical professionals and production staff.

Pre-release access of up to 24 hours is granted to the following persons:

• Ministry of Justice: Deputy Prime Minister; Minister of State; Permanent Secretary; Deputy Director, Reducing Reoffending; Deputy Director, Service Design; Deputy Director of Probation Policy; Deputy Director, Public Protection Group; Deputy Director, Data and Evidence as a Service; relevant private secretaries (x6), special advisors (x2); press officers (x12); analysts (x10); and policy officials (x3).

• Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS): Deputy Director, Reducing Reoffending; and policy official (x1).

• Youth Justice Board (YJB): YJB analysts (x1).