In March 2025, the inflation rate for food prices in the United Kingdom was measured at three percent. A period of continuous deflation between March 2015 and January 2017 preceded a return to a sustained rise in the cost of food from February 2017 onwards. While food prices were deflating between September 2020 and July 2021, they started increasing rapidly from August 2021 to March 2023. The inflation rate started to decline from April 2023. Inflation rate and consumer price indexInflation is commonly measured via the consumer price index, which illustrates changes to prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. An annualized percentage change in the price index constitutes a measure of inflation. In order to maintain an inflation rate at a stable level, to enable the general public and businesses to plan their spending, the Government set a two percent inflation target for the Bank of England. The discounter boom The increase in food prices in the United Kingdom has shifted shopping behaviours amongst consumers. Value is now key and shoppers are changing their retailer loyalties. Aldi, the German discount supermarket retailer, overtook Morrisons as Great Britain's fourth largest supermarket in September of 2022. Aldi's market share reached double digits for the first time in April 2023. It is yet to be seen if Lidl, Aldi's discounter competitor, can also continue to rise up in the ranks and eventually take over Morrisons as the fifth leading food retailer.

The Supermarkets industry has undergone something of a shift over the past decade – discounters Aldi and Lidl have penetrated the customer base of the traditional “Big Four” supermarkets (Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons), with their low prices and improving quality of products resonating with price-conscious shoppers. Over the five years through 2024-25, supermarkets' revenue is forecast to dip at a compound annual rate of 1.1% to £192.1 billion, though it's expected to inch up by 0.6% in 2024-25. Grocery price inflation has eased in 2024-25, with this stabilisation supporting consumer confidence, which has sparked greater sales volumes across major supermarket chains. Over the five years through 2024-25, the cost-of-living crisis has constrained households’ budgets, with shoppers spending less on non-essentials, shopping around more and turning to discount supermarkets. The landscape for UK supermarkets has been characterised by intense competition and emerging consumer trends. Discount retailers like Lidl and Aldi have aggressively expanded their market presence by capitalising on streamlined supply chains and low operational costs, enticing budget-conscious shoppers. Their success has prompted traditional supermarkets to embark on price wars and promotional strategies like Aldi price matches, illustrating the sector's dynamic nature. Concurrently, loyalty programmes have proven instrumental in bolstering supermarkets' profitability. Tesco, for instance, reported exponential growth in its Clubcard membership, thereby solidifying its market share. Looking forward, consumer preferences for quick and convenient shopping will threaten the traditional weekly shop. Convenience stores are likely to benefit from the little, local and often trend, stealing sales away from supermarkets. Sustainability is a growing concern for both shoppers and supermarkets. As disposable incomes recover, shoppers will emphasise sustainably produced, sourced and packaged products. Supermarkets will invest heavily in decarbonising their operations by purchasing electric fleets. However, additional costs caused by hikes to employers’ National Insurance contribution outlined in the 2024 Autumn Budget will force supermarkets to pass on additional costs to consumers, threatening their price competitiveness. Over the five years through 2029-30, supermarkets' revenue is forecast to swell at a compound annual rate of 2.1% to £213.4 billion.

Acoording to a survey from September 2022 in the United Kingdom, ***** with around ** percent of the nearly 700 survey respondents, is the supermarket most shoppers switched to due to inflation.

The online price changes for a selection of food and drink products from several large UK retailers. These data are experimental estimates developed to deliver timely indicators to help better understand real time economic activity and social change in the UK.

European supermarkets’ revenue is forecast to inch upwards at a compound annual rate of 0.6% over the five years through 2025 to reach €1.7 trillion. European supermarkets face intense price competition amid lingering cost pressures. Though EU food inflation has stabilised at 2.7% in April 2025, consumer focus on value remains high. Discounters like Aldi and Lidl continue to gain share as shoppers seek lower prices. Supermarkets are investing heavily in price-matching schemes, though sustaining these is financially challenging. Tesco and Sainsbury’s have begun scaling back such initiatives, while Asda has abandoned its price match strategy. Private label growth is reshaping the sector. Sales reached €352 billion in 2024. Retailers are diversifying these ranges to balance value, quality, and margins. Smarter product mixes are emerging as retailers prioritise local sourcing and premium niches to build loyalty. Strategies like Sainsbury’s “Supporting British” and Mercadona’s local sourcing model resonate with values-driven shoppers. Loyalty programmes have become a strategic pillar, offering personalisation and margin-friendly growth. Programmes like Tesco Clubcard and Carrefour+ drive retention and profitability beyond price wars. Finally, rising labour costs add further pressure. Recent minimum wage increases across Europe have prompted supermarkets to pursue automation, cost savings, and operational efficiencies to protect profitability in an evolving retail landscape. In 2025 alone, revenue is expected to grow at 0.9% to €2 trillion while profit is expected to reach 5.2%, a minor drop from 5.6% in 2022 thanks to intense price competition. Over the five years through 2030, supermarkets’ revenue is slated to climb at a compound annual rate of 2.9% to €3 trillion. Private label growth remains a structural trend while health, convenience, and on-the-go meals are driving new demand, particularly among younger shoppers. Supermarkets must diversify ranges to capture this growth, blending value, quality, and functionality. Convenience is also fuelling an ongoing channel shift. Online grocery sales remain, with consumers willing to pay premiums for faster delivery. Retailers are scaling up e-commerce, partnering with delivery apps, and innovating store formats to meet demand for flexibility. Smaller urban stores, hybrid models and grocerants are gaining traction. To boost efficiency and margins, supermarkets are accelerating investment in automation and AI. Personalised loyalty schemes are driving customer retention, while automation in warehouses and stores enhances productivity. Trials in drone delivery and robotic shelf scanning signal further innovation. Consolidation and integration are key to navigating sustained margin pressure. Larger grocers are pursuing M&A and pan-European alliances to drive scale, while moving upstream into food production for resilience. Supermarkets that adapt rapidly - blending private labels, convenience, technology and scale - will outperform in Europe’s increasingly competitive grocery landscape.

The average cost of a shopping basket, consisting of 79 items, was the lowest at the *********************** and amounted to ****** British pounds as of March 2025. It was over ** pounds cheaper than the corresponding range of goods at Waitrose. Below that, the second most expensive basket was the one offered by *****, an online supermarket operating in the UK. The UK grocery market In 2021, the entire grocery market of the United Kingdom was worth ***** billion British pounds. This figure was forecast to increase to over *** billion British pounds by 2027. Grocery stores Supermarkets are the most profitable store form currently in the UK. Sales generated by supermarkets came to around ** billion pounds. In comparison, discounters made close to ** billion in sales, while the online channel accounted for around 22 billion. Sainsbury’s operated**** supermarkets at the end of the 2023/24 financial year and another**** convenience stores.

Grocery markets' performance is sensitive to the level of household disposable income, health consciousness, environmental awareness and competition from other grocery retailers like supermarkets. Health consciousness and environmental awareness are ever-growing, with individuals more concerned about the provenance of their food. Organic, sustainable and local products are growing in popularity and boosting revenue as consumers are happy to pay a premium for higher-quality goods with traceable production. Grocery markets experienced a 45-year high in food price inflation in 2023, with similar rises in the cost of domestic and imported food inputs, placing significant pressure on stall operators' purchase costs. Local councils, faced with tight budgets, raised the price of pitch rents, adding to the operational costs of stall operators. A combination of these two things and depressed purchasing power among shoppers led to a drop in sales volumes. In 2024-25, revenue is forecast to grow by 0.4%, supported by growth in consumer confidence. Over the five years through 2024-25, industry-wide revenue is anticipated to grow at a compound annual rate of 8.3% to £370.8 million, supported by growing spend on premium products like artisan bread and organic meats, as real wages recover. Looking forward, supermarket competition will continue to rise. Grocery markets must find innovative ways to boost their competitiveness by improving the shopping experience, like subscription-type models, speedy delivery or personalised services and expanding the product range. Grocery markets' revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 9.7% to reach £589.1 million over the five years through 2029-30.

Cost of food in the United Kingdom increased 4.50 percent in June of 2025 over the same month in the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Food Inflation - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

According to a June 2022 global survey, most e-shoppers reported rising prices for groceries being an issue while online shopping. Nearly ** percent of shoppers in Brazil stated that increased food prices influenced their shopping behavior, while South Korea had the second-highest number of respondents reporting the issue, at ** percent.

Online food market Worldwide, China is home to the largest online food delivery market by revenue. In 2022, China's online food delivery market was valued at roughly *** billion U.S. dollars. The online food delivery market in the United States ranked second, with almost *** billion U.S. dollars in revenue. The United Kingdom (UK) and India were among the leading countries, with ** billion and ** billion U.S. dollars, respectively. While China leads in revenue, online food delivery penetration is the highest in the UK. In 2022, almost three-quarters of UK shoppers purchased meals via the internet, whereas only slightly more than half of Chinese consumers had done the same.

Inflation hits grocery prices The impact of inflation on food prices can be seen throughout the world. In the United States, it has adversely affected online grocery since June 2021. For instance, year-on-year inflation for groceries stood at **** percent in October 2022. Consumers in the UK are the most worried about rising food prices. In November 2022, eight out of ten UK shoppers expected grocery prices to rise further in the following months. In Europe, shoppers are changing their grocery purchasing habits due to inflation. Half of Europeans are trying private-label brands, and ** percent are straying from their go-to brand. As a result of inflation, ** percent are now shifting away from brick-and-mortar stores to online grocery shopping.

Over the five years through 2025-26, industry revenue is expected to decline at a compound annual rate of 3.3% to £23.8 billion. The post-pandemic unwinding has been sharp, with online grocery orders falling from their lockdown highs as consumers return to physical stores. Meanwhile, aggressive pricing from discounters like Lidl and Aldi has pressured full-service grocers to match value, often through margin-eroding tactics like loyalty pricing, discounting and delivery subsidies. Demand for online grocery hasn’t disappeared – far from it – but it has normalised, and the cost of fulfilment remains high. Supermarkets continue to struggle with thin margins as the price of labour, fuel and delivery infrastructure weighs heavily on profit. In 2025-26, revenue is expected to rise modestly by 1.7%, reflecting a more stable consumer backdrop and slower inflation, particularly in food categories. Retailers have continued investing in automation and fulfilment innovations – from robotic picking systems to hyperlocal delivery hubs. Still, many of these upgrades are capital-intensive and have yet to ease the industry’s cost burden fully, but price sensitivity remains high. While loyalty schemes and one-hour delivery services help retain customers, they also demand substantial ongoing investment, limiting any meaningful recovery in profitability. Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to climb at a compound annual rate of 2.5% over the five years through 2030-31 to £26.8 billion. Growth will likely remain tepid as household budgets stay under pressure and the market becomes increasingly saturated. Major companies will likely consolidate their lead by expanding automation, refining logistics and bundling services through apps and loyalty platforms. Still, with delivery speed expectations rising and margins staying thin, grocers must carefully balance convenience with cost discipline to remain competitive.

When surveyed in February 2025, some ** percent of respondents in the United Kingdom stated that they are reducing at-home food waste to save on food costs. Additionally, ********* stated that they purchase mainly store brands.

The performance of the hospitality sector, consumer spending habits and supermarket demand are the key factors affecting the Grocery Wholesaling industry. Over the five years through 2024-25, revenue is forecast to grow at a compound annual rate of 2% to £44.2 billion, including an anticipated hike of 0.7% in 2024-25. Inflation has played a big role in the industry’s recent performance. Food prices reached record highs in March 2023, with the Office for National Statistics reporting they climbed by 19.3% over the year, primarily due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Consumers responded to sky-high prices by trading down and eating out less, denting sales to supermarkets and hospitality venues; still, rising prices kept revenue growing. Food inflation has since fallen considerably, paving the way for growth in consumer confidence. However, food prices rose by 3.3% in the year to January 2025. While this is much lower than the peak in March 2023, food inflation had been trending downward in previous months (October to December 2024). High prices have limited sales volumes and increased the rate of wholesale bypass. Revenue is slated to swell at a compound annual rate of 2% over the five years through 2029-30 to £48.7 billion. As inflation stabilises, pressure on household finances will ease and boost consumer confidence. According to the Bank of England's projections in February 2025, inflation will rise to 3.7% at the end of Q3 2025, before easing slowly back to its target 2% in Q4 2027. This recovery will raise grocery sales, particularly in the hospitality sector. At the same time, consumers will trade up to higher-priced, healthier and sustainably sourced products, boosting revenue and profit. However, threats remain; wholesale bypass, the rise of farmers markets and rising demand for fresh, healthy products will continue to present challenges to grocery wholesalers, eating into sales. Upcoming hikes in the National Living Wage and employers’ National Insurance contributions are set to drive up wholesalers’ costs, hindering profitability.

This statistic shows the percentage increase in price of own brand organic food products compared to standard own brand products in the five largest supermarket chains in the United Kingdom (UK) in 2016. On average, the organic shopper pays ***** percent more for their organic own label produce per year, an estimated *** British pounds.

The FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) averaged 124.9 points in January 2025, down 2.1 points from December 2024. The highest value for the index in the past 23 years was reached in March 2022. However, the rate of food price increases has been decreasing since.

Food prices worldwide The annual FAO Food Price Index (FFPI) by category shows that the price of vegetable oils grew by a particularly large margin. One of the factors that influenced the spike in oil prices worldwide during 2020 and 2021 were the supply-chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, after the war in Ukraine, shipping costs and grain prices also had a noticeable impact on global food prices. Global food prices are calculated to have increased by 3.68 percent, due to changes in shipping costs and grain prices. The European Union (EU) has experienced a particularly high increase in the annual consumer prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, as compared to other selected countries worldwide. Inflation in Europe

The inflation rate for food in the EU grew from 0.2 percent in May 2021 to 19.2 percent in March 2023, as compared to the same month in the previous year. In the following months, the food inflation started decreasing again, reaching 1.86 percent in April 2024. The overall inflation rate in the Euro area reached its peak in December 2022 at 9.2 percent. The rate has since fallen to 2.4 percent in December 2024. As measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), inflation rates in Europe were highest in Turkey, North Macedonia, and Romania as of December 2024.

As of March 4, 2024, there were 1,431 Sainsbury's grocery stores in the UK, 834 of which were convenience stores. The rest of the stores were supermarkets. The growth of supermarkets has slowed down in recent years, yet increased slightly compared to 2023. Sainsbury's in profile Headquartered in London, Sainsbury's is the second largest supermarket in the United Kingdom and one of the 'big four' grocery retailers alongside Tesco, Morrisons and Asda. Founded by John James Sainsbury in 1869 with a shop on Drury Lane, London, Sainsbury's was the largest grocery retailer until 1995, at which point Tesco overtook it to become the market leader. The holding company J Sainsbury plc is split into three divisions: Sainsbury's Supermarkets Ltd, Sainsbury's Bank and Sainsbury's Argos. Pressure from the German discounters Along with the other major grocery retailers in the UK, Sainsbury's have been hard hit by the market entry and popularity of discounters, resulting in the ongoing supermarket 'price wars'. Aldi and Lidl are both still experiencing continuous sales growth. If the trend of the previous year’s continue, as seems likely, pressure on Sainsbury’s will rise even further.

The United Kingdom tofu market, valued at £139.54 million in 2025, is experiencing robust growth, projected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 14.68% from 2025 to 2033. This significant expansion is driven by several key factors. The increasing popularity of veganism and vegetarianism within the UK fuels substantial demand for plant-based protein sources like tofu. Furthermore, growing health consciousness among consumers, coupled with a rising awareness of tofu's nutritional benefits – its high protein content, low fat, and versatility in culinary applications – is contributing to market growth. The increasing availability of tofu products across various distribution channels, including supermarkets, convenience stores, and online retailers, further enhances market accessibility and fuels consumer adoption. Innovative product development, such as the introduction of flavored and ready-to-eat tofu products, caters to evolving consumer preferences and expands market reach. However, challenges remain, including potential price volatility related to raw material costs (soybeans) and competition from other plant-based protein alternatives. Despite these restraints, the market's trajectory remains positive. The strategic expansion of established companies like The Tofoo Co Ltd and Monde Nissin Corp (Marlow Foods Limited), coupled with the entry of new players, indicates a highly competitive yet dynamic landscape. The dominance of supermarkets and hypermarkets as primary distribution channels highlights the importance of strategic partnerships with major retailers. The online retail segment is anticipated to show particularly strong growth driven by the convenience and reach offered by e-commerce platforms. Looking ahead, the UK tofu market is poised for continued expansion, driven by sustained consumer demand for healthier and more sustainable food choices. The market's robust growth prospects present significant opportunities for both established and emerging players. Recent developments include: April 2022: Cauldron Foods, a division of Marlow Foods Ltd, expanded its famous range with the addition of two new tofu products, namely Quick & Tasty Smoky BBQ Block and Hoisin Tofu. The new SKUs are created from sustainable soy and come in 100% recyclable packaging., December 2021: The Tofoo Co., a UK tofu brand, expanded its portfolio with a new line of frozen tofu products called Straight to Wok. Straight to Wok is prepared with tofu cubes coated in cornflour. The new line comes in two flavors, such as Naked and Ginger & Chilli., February 2021: The Tofoo Co., a British company, launched the country's first frozen tofu product, Tofoo Chunkies, which is intended to make tofu more accessible.. Notable trends are: Growing Preference of Vegan Diet.

The market share of the leading supermarkets in Great Britain (GB) from January 2017 to March 2025 has remained fairly stable. Tesco and Sainsbury's had the largest share over the period under consideration, holding **** percent of the market together as of March 2025. Prior to the popularity of the discounters, the grocery retail market was dominated by the 'big four' supermarkets: Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda, and Morrisons. On the back of the post-Brexit uncertainty and growing inflation, consumer behavior has shifted in favor of cheaper alternatives such as Aldi and Lidl. In September 2022, Aldi took over fourth place in the grocery store ranking from Morrisons for the first time. In April 2023, Aldi's market share reached double digits for the first time. In March 2025, this figure stood at ** percent.

The UK dog food market, a significant segment within the broader pet food industry, is experiencing robust growth driven by several key factors. Increasing pet ownership, particularly among younger demographics, fuels demand for high-quality dog food. This trend is further amplified by a rising awareness of pet health and nutrition, leading to increased spending on premium and specialized dog food products. The market is segmented by product type (dry, wet, treats, supplements, veterinary diets) and distribution channels (supermarkets, specialty stores, online retailers, convenience stores). While supermarkets and hypermarkets currently dominate distribution, the online channel is experiencing rapid expansion, fueled by convenience and the ability to access a wider range of products. Premiumization, characterized by the increasing demand for natural, organic, and grain-free dog food, is a prominent trend, driving average selling prices upward and contributing to market expansion. However, economic factors, such as inflation and the cost of living crisis, may exert some restraint on overall market growth, potentially impacting purchasing decisions among price-sensitive consumers. Competition among established players like Mars, Nestlé Purina, and smaller niche brands is intense, with innovation in product formulation and marketing playing crucial roles in gaining market share. The UK market benefits from a strong regulatory environment focused on pet food safety and labeling, contributing to consumer confidence. Looking ahead, the continued focus on pet health and welfare, coupled with technological advancements in pet food production, will likely shape future market dynamics. The growth of the online channel is anticipated to continue, while the premiumization trend will likely persist, despite potential economic headwinds. The UK dog food market's future growth trajectory depends heavily on the success of brands in adapting to shifting consumer preferences. The rising demand for functional foods, incorporating ingredients with specific health benefits (e.g., joint health, gut health), presents a significant opportunity for growth. Brands are increasingly emphasizing transparency and traceability in their supply chains, responding to consumer demand for greater information about ingredient sourcing and manufacturing processes. Sustainability concerns are also impacting purchasing decisions, with more consumers seeking eco-friendly packaging and ethically sourced ingredients. Brands that can effectively cater to these evolving preferences, while maintaining competitive pricing strategies, are well-positioned to capitalize on future growth opportunities within the UK dog food market. Understanding the specific needs of different dog breeds and life stages is also crucial for successful product development and market positioning. The increasing prevalence of pet insurance may also contribute positively to market growth, as insured owners may be more inclined to invest in higher-quality pet food. Recent developments include: July 2023: Hill's Pet Nutrition introduced its new MSC (Marine Stewardship Council) certified pollock and insect protein products for pets with sensitive stomachs and skin lines. They contain vitamins, omega-3 fatty acids, and antioxidants.March 2023: Mars Incorporated launched new Pedigree Multivitamins, a trio of soft chews formulated to help pets with their immunity, digestion, and joints. It has been developed with the Waltham Petcare Science Institute team, vets, and pet nutritionists.March 2023: Blue Buffalo, a subsidiary of General Mills Inc., launched its new high-protein dry dog food line, BLUE Wilderness Premier Blend. It is formulated with chicken and a blend of antioxidants, vitamins, and minerals.. Notable trends are: The food segment dominated the product types as they are the primary sources of nutrition regardless of dog breed size and age.

The United Kingdom nutritional bar market, valued at approximately £300 million in 2025, is experiencing robust growth, projected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 5.42% from 2025 to 2033. This growth is fueled by several key drivers. The increasing prevalence of health-conscious consumers seeking convenient and nutritious snacks is a primary factor. Busy lifestyles and the rising demand for on-the-go food options are further boosting market expansion. The market segments significantly are organic and conventional energy bars, with organic bars experiencing faster growth due to rising consumer preference for natural and sustainable products. Distribution channels are diversifying, with supermarkets/hypermarkets maintaining a dominant share but online retail experiencing rapid expansion, driven by e-commerce growth and convenience. The competitive landscape is dynamic, with major players such as Mondelēz International, Glanbia, and Kellogg's vying for market share alongside smaller, specialized brands focusing on niche ingredients and health benefits. The market’s growth trajectory suggests significant opportunities for both established players and emerging businesses, particularly those catering to evolving consumer demands for specific dietary needs and functional ingredients. The UK nutritional bar market's continued success hinges on effectively addressing evolving consumer preferences. Innovation in product formulation, such as incorporating functional ingredients targeting specific health goals (e.g., protein bars for muscle growth, fiber bars for digestive health), will be crucial. Sustainability initiatives, such as using ethically sourced ingredients and eco-friendly packaging, are also gaining traction and are expected to influence consumer purchasing decisions. Furthermore, targeted marketing campaigns highlighting the health benefits and convenience of nutritional bars will be essential for driving market growth. The expansion into new distribution channels, including online platforms and partnerships with gyms and health food stores, will also play a critical role in broadening market reach and achieving sustained growth in the years to come. Price sensitivity remains a factor, however, and a balance between premium pricing for specialized bars and competitive pricing for mainstream products will be vital for market success. Recent developments include: September 2022: Mondelēz's protein bar brand Grenade launched two new multipack protein bar variants in Tesco and Sainsbury. The multipack features a 10-pack of selected Grenade's best-selling (60g) protein bars. These comprise two bars of each of the following five flavors: chocolate chips salted caramel, white chocolate salted peanut, cookie dough, white chocolate cookie and fudged up. Also, a three-pack variant would be launched across over 1,000 Co-op stores that featured three 35g bars in Grenade's best-selling protein bar flavor, Chocolate Chip Salted Caramel., March 2021: Mondelēz International acquired majority shares of Grenade, a prominent player offering a range of performance nutrition products, including energy and protein bars in the United Kingdom., March 2021: Barebells, a United Kingdom functional food brand, added Double Bite, a "bar of two halves," to its line of energy/protein-enriched snack bars. Double Bite is available in two flavors: caramel crisp and chocolate crisp. Both flavors provide 16g of protein and do not contain any added sugar or palm oil.. Notable trends are: Increasing Number of Health and Fitness Centers.

Cauliflower and broccoli exports from Spain peaked at $546M, surging by +14% over the last year. Shipments to the UK, Germany and the Netherlands constituted more than half of the total Spanish exports. Norway, Poland and Belgium feature the highest increases in purchases from Spain, while supplies to Italy dramatically dropped.