The unemployment rate of the United Kingdom was 4.4 percent in January 2025, unchanged from the previous month. Before the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK had relatively low levels of unemployment, comparable with the mid-1970s. Between January 2000 and the most recent month, unemployment was highest in November 2011 when the unemployment rate hit 8.5 percent.
Will unemployment continue to rise in 2025?
Although low by historic standards, there has been a noticeable uptick in the UK's unemployment rate, with other labor market indicators also pointing to further loosening. In December 2024, the number of job vacancies in the UK, fell to its lowest level since May 2021, while payrolled employment declined by 47,000 compared with November. Whether this is a continuation of a broader cooling of the labor market since 2022, or a reaction to more recent economic developments, such as upcoming tax rises for employers, remains to be seen. Forecasts made in late 2024 suggest that the unemployment rate will remain relatively stable in 2025, averaging out at 4.1 percent, and falling again to four percent in 2026.
Demographics of the unemployed
As of the third quarter of 2024, the unemployment rate for men was slightly higher than that of women, at 4.4 percent, compared to 4.1 percent. During the financial crisis at the end of the 2000s, the unemployment rate for women peaked at a quarterly rate of 7.7 percent, whereas for men, the rate was 9.1 percent. Unemployment is also heavily associated with age, and young people in general are far more vulnerable to unemployment than older age groups. In late 2011, for example, the unemployment rate for those aged between 16 and 24 reached 22.3 percent, compared with 8.2 percent for people aged 25 to 34, while older age groups had even lower peaks during this time.
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Unemployment Rate in the United Kingdom remained unchanged at 4.40 percent in January. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United Kingdom Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.
In 2024, the annual unemployment rate of the United Kingdom is expected to be 4.3 percent, compared with four percent in 2023. Unemployment is forecast to fall to 4.1 percent in 2025, before falling again to four percent in 2026. A common indicator of an economy’s relative health, the unemployment rate has generally been falling in the United Kingdom since its 2011 peak of 8.1 percent. Uptick in unemployment in 2023 In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom grew steadily, from just 3.9 percent at the start of 2020, to 5.1 percent by the end of the year. This was followed by a steep decline in unemployment that lasted until August 2022, when the unemployment rate was just 3.5 percent. There was a slight uptick in unemployment following this low, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3 percent the following July. This has been matched by a fall in the number of UK job vacancies, which reached a peak of 1.3 million in May 2022, but has been falling in every subsequent month, with approximately 932,000 vacancies in January 2024. Other UK key economic indicators Although the UK's labor market was quite well protected from the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, other parts of the economy took a more severe hit. The initial lockdown measures resulted in a huge fall to UK GDP, in April 2020 which took over a year to reach its pre-pandemic size. Economic growth has remained sluggish ever since the initial recovery, with the UK economy alternating between weak growth and slight contractions. The UK even entered a technical recession at the end of 2023, following two quarters of negative growth. Inflation also skyrocketed from late 2021 onwards, reaching a peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022. Even one year after that peak, inflation has proven stubborn to get down, with a rate of 4.6 percent in October 2023.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom was highest in Wales, where it was 5.4 percent, followed by England at 4.5 percent, Scotland at 3.8 percent, and 1.6 percent in Northern Ireland, the lowest rate among the four countries of the UK. For all four countries, the peak in unemployment during this period was in the early 2010s. England and Scotland's unemployment rates were highest in Q4 2011 at 8.4 percent and 8.6 percent respectively, with unemployment reaching 9.7 percent in Wales during Q3 2011. Northern Ireland reported its highest unemployment rate in Q1 of 2013 when it reached eight percent. Unemployment ticking up as UK enters 2025 For the United Kingdom as a whole, the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent in November 2024, the joint-highest rate recorded since August 2021. After reaching 8.5 percent in late 2011, unemployment in the UK fell quite consistently for several years, with this recovery interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw unemployment rise to 5.3 percent in late 2020 and early 2021. From this point onwards, however, the labor market bounced back, and was particular strong in 2022 when there were a record number of job vacancies and unemployment fell to as low as 3.6 percent. While the labor market cooled throughout 2023 and 2024, unemployment remained at historically low levels. Overall economy grows but GDP per head falls Throughout the whole of 2024, gross domestic product in the UK grew by 0.9 percent, but in the third quarter of the year, there was no economic growth, followed by the relatively weak growth rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter. Furthermore, GDP per head in the UK, declined for a second-consecutive year, and was just 36,977 pounds in 2024, compared with 37,371 pounds in 2022. Inflation, meanwhile, has fallen from the peak of 11.1 percent in October 2022, but was still at the relatively high rate of four percent at the start of 2024, with this falling to 2.5 percent by the end of the year.
http://reference.data.gov.uk/id/open-government-licencehttp://reference.data.gov.uk/id/open-government-licence
This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents aged 16 years and over in England and Wales by economic activity status, by sex, and by whether and when they were last employed. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.
As Census 2021 was during a unique period of rapid change, take care when using this data for planning purposes. Read more about this quality notice.
Area type
Census 2021 statistics are published for a number of different geographies. These can be large, for example the whole of England, or small, for example an output area (OA), the lowest level of geography for which statistics are produced.
For higher levels of geography, more detailed statistics can be produced. When a lower level of geography is used, such as output areas (which have a minimum of 100 persons), the statistics produced have less detail. This is to protect the confidentiality of people and ensure that individuals or their characteristics cannot be identified.
Lower tier local authorities
Lower tier local authorities provide a range of local services. There are 309 lower tier local authorities in England made up of 181 non-metropolitan districts, 59 unitary authorities, 36 metropolitan districts and 33 London boroughs (including City of London). In Wales there are 22 local authorities made up of 22 unitary authorities.
Coverage
Census 2021 statistics are published for the whole of England and Wales. However, you can choose to filter areas by:
Economic activity status
People aged 16 years and over are economically active if, between 15 March and 21 March 2021, they were:
It is a measure of whether or not a person was an active participant in the labour market during this period. Economically inactive are those aged 16 years and over who did not have a job between 15 March to 21 March 2021 and had not looked for work between 22 February to 21 March 2021 or could not start work within two weeks.
The census definition differs from International Labour Organization definition used on the Labour Force Survey, so estimates are not directly comparable.
This classification splits out full-time students from those who are not full-time students when they are employed or unemployed. It is recommended to sum these together to look at all of those in employment or unemployed, or to use the four category labour market classification, if you want to look at all those with a particular labour market status.
Sex
This is the sex recorded by the person completing the census. The options were “Female” and “Male”.
Employment history
Classifies people who were not in employment on Census Day into:
Approximately 14.8 percent of people aged 16 to 24 were unemployed in the United Kingdom in the fourth quarter of 2024, the highest of any age group in that month. During this time period, older age groups have had much lower unemployment rates than younger ones, who have consistently had the highest unemployment rate. For almost all the age groups, the peak in the unemployment rate was recorded in 2011 when almost a quarter of young working age people were unemployed. Young adults in the labor market In the provided time period, youth unemployment was at its lowest rate in the third quarter of 2022, when it was 10.3 percent. Since then, there has been a noticeable uptick in youth unemployment, which was 14.8 percent towards the end of 2024. A more long-term trend among this age group is the increase in economic inactivity, with 40.8 percent of 16 to 24-year-old's not in work or actively looking for work in 2024. Although students or people in training account for a high share of this economic inactivity, there has also been a rise in the proportion of young adults who are not in education, employment or training (NEET), which reached a ten-year-high of 13.2 percent in late 2024. Unemployment up from low baseline in late 2024 In 2022, the UK labor market, had very low levels of unemployment along with a record number of job vacancies. Throughout 2023 and 2024, this very tight labor market began to loosen, although is still quite low by historic standards. One indicator that has stood out since the COVID-19 pandemic, however, has been the number of people economically inactive due to being on long-term sick leave, which reached 2.82 million in the first quarter of 2024, and has been the main reason for economic inactivity in the UK since late 2021.
http://reference.data.gov.uk/id/open-government-licencehttp://reference.data.gov.uk/id/open-government-licence
This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents aged 16 years and over in employment the week before the census in England and Wales by industry and by economic activity status. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.
As Census 2021 was during a unique period of rapid change, take care when using this data for planning purposes. Read more about this quality notice.
Area type
Census 2021 statistics are published for a number of different geographies. These can be large, for example the whole of England, or small, for example an output area (OA), the lowest level of geography for which statistics are produced.
For higher levels of geography, more detailed statistics can be produced. When a lower level of geography is used, such as output areas (which have a minimum of 100 persons), the statistics produced have less detail. This is to protect the confidentiality of people and ensure that individuals or their characteristics cannot be identified.
Lower tier local authorities
Lower tier local authorities provide a range of local services. There are 309 lower tier local authorities in England made up of 181 non-metropolitan districts, 59 unitary authorities, 36 metropolitan districts and 33 London boroughs (including City of London). In Wales there are 22 local authorities made up of 22 unitary authorities.
Coverage
Census 2021 statistics are published for the whole of England and Wales. However, you can choose to filter areas by:
Industry (current)
Classifies people aged 16 years and over who were in employment between 15 March and 21 March 2021 by the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code that represents their current industry or business.
The SIC code is assigned based on the information provided about a firm or organisation’s main activity.
Economic activity status
People aged 16 years and over are economically active if, between 15 March and 21 March 2021, they were:
It is a measure of whether or not a person was an active participant in the labour market during this period. Economically inactive are those aged 16 years and over who did not have a job between 15 March to 21 March 2021 and had not looked for work between 22 February to 21 March 2021 or could not start work within two weeks.
The census definition differs from International Labour Organization definition used on the Labour Force Survey, so estimates are not directly comparable.
This classification splits out full-time students from those who are not full-time students when they are employed or unemployed. It is recommended to sum these together to look at all of those in employment or unemployed, or to use the four category labour market classification, if you want to look at all those with a particular labour market status.
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Unemployment by age and duration (seasonally adjusted). These estimates are sourced from the Labour Force Survey, a survey of households. These are official statistics in development.
Official statistics are produced impartially and free from political influence.
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Key information about UK Unemployment Rate
London had the highest unemployment rate among regions of the United Kingdom in the fourth quarter of 2024 at 6.1 percent, while for the UK as a whole, the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent. Four other regions also had an unemployment rate higher than the national average, while Northern Ireland had the lowest unemployment rate in this time period, at two percent. Labor market recovery after COVID-19 After reaching historically low levels of unemployment in 2019, there was a noticeable spike in the UK unemployment rate in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. After peaking at 5.1 percent in late 2020, the unemployment rate declined throughout 2021 and 2022. High levels of job vacancies, resignations, and staff shortages in 2022, were all indicative of a very tight labor market that year, but all these measures have started to point in the direction of a slightly looser labor market. UK's regional economic divide While the North of England has some of the country’s largest cities, the sheer size and economic power of London is much larger than the UK's other urban agglomerations. Partly, due to the size of London, the United Kingdom is one of Europe’s most centralized counties, and there is a clear divide between the economic prospects of north and south England. In 2022, for example, the gross domestic product per head in London was 57,338 British pounds, far higher than the UK average of 33,593 pounds, and significantly larger than North East England, the region with the lowest GDP per head at 24,172 pounds.
Following the release of the LFS Annual Report, these tables contain additional breakdowns for January to December 2021, including labour market structure, industry, qualifications, and participation in education and training. Section 75 breakdowns have also be provided for employment, economic inactivity and unemployment (where available).
Following the identification of errors in Table 2.2 and 3 of the ‘Highest qualification level and participation in education/training 2021’ document, revised tables were uploaded on 28th November 2022. Further detail on the nature of the revisions is contained within the cover sheet of the revised document (which can be accessed via the above link). We apologise for any inconvenience this may have caused.
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Employment, unemployment and economic inactivity levels and rates by age group, UK, rolling three-monthly figures, seasonally adjusted. Labour Force Survey. These are official statistics in development.
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License information was derived automatically
This study uses the ARDL model and semi-macro data to conduct regression analysis on the relationship between immigrant share and unemployment rate and draws the following conclusions: First, overall, the increase of immigration will decrease the unemployment rate in the U.K. in the short-term; however, the long-term effect may be zero. The effect of immigration on the unemployment rate may vary subtly depending on the local economic development or population density. Specifically, in less economically developed or sparsely populated areas, an increase in the immigrant share may improve employment in the long term. Conversely, in regions with higher population density or RGDP, although immigration will improve employment in the short term, the long-term effects on employment are likely to be negative. The uploaded zip file includes the raw data folder as well as the data files for analysis. After executing the latter CSV file named post_2021_7 into EViews 10, the overall regression analysis of immigrants on the unemployment rates can be obtained by following the steps of the panel ARDL approach. The results of the analysis of the impact of immigrants on the unemployment rates in areas with lower RGDP, the impact of immigrants on the unemployment rates in areas with higher RGDP, the impact of immigrants on the unemployment rates in areas with low population density and the impact of immigrants on the unemployment rates in areas with high population density can be obtained by using the files named post_2021_7_red_rgdp_1_2, post_2021_7_green_rgdp_1_2, post_2021_7_red_pop_1_2 and post_2021_7_green_pop_1_2, separately.
In January 2025, the employment rate in the United Kingdom was 74.9 percent, up from 74.7 percent in the same period a year earlier. After almost dropping below 70 percent in 2011, the employment rate in the United Kingdom started to climb at a relatively fast pace, peaking in early 2020. Due to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, the employment declined to 74.6 percent by January 2021. Although not quite at pre-pandemic levels, the employment rate has since recovered. Hot UK labor market cools in 2023 Although unemployment in the UK spiked at 5.1 percent in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, it fell throughout most of 2022, to just 3.6 percent in August 2022. Around that time, the number of job vacancies in the UK was also at quite high levels, reaching a peak of 1.3 million by May 2022. The strong labor market put employees in quite a strong position, perhaps encouraging the high number of resignations that took place around that time. While wage growth has also been strong since 2022, these gains were cancelled-out for a long period between 2021 and 2023 when inflation grew faster than wages. By July 2023, unemployment had bounced back to 4.3 percent, while the number of job vacancies fell below one million in August 2023 for the first time since August 2021. UK in recession at end of 2023 Although the UK labor market has loosened since 2022, it has generally remained in good health, with unemployment low by historical standards. Inflation also fell throughout 2023, from 10.1 percent at the beginning of the year, to four percent by December. Getting inflation down to more acceptable levels, however, came at the expense of raising the Bank of England's already high-interest rate throughout 2023. The knock-on effect of higher borrowing costs likely did little to spur economic growth that year, with GDP growing by just 0.1 percent in 2023. Even this meager economic growth was only achieved due to growth in the first half of the year. In the second half of 2023, the economy shrank in two consecutive quarters, meaning the UK is officially in recession heading into a probable election year.
Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
Open Government Licence 3.0http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3/
License information was derived automatically
Employment levels and rates by country of birth and nationality, UK, published quarterly, non-seasonally adjusted. Labour Force Survey. These are official statistics in development.
http://reference.data.gov.uk/id/open-government-licencehttp://reference.data.gov.uk/id/open-government-licence
This dataset provides Census 2021 estimates that classify usual residents aged 16 years and over in England and Wales by economic activity status and by ethnic group. The estimates are as at Census Day, 21 March 2021.
As Census 2021 was during a unique period of rapid change, take care when using this data for planning purposes. Read more about this quality notice.
Area type
Census 2021 statistics are published for a number of different geographies. These can be large, for example the whole of England, or small, for example an output area (OA), the lowest level of geography for which statistics are produced.
For higher levels of geography, more detailed statistics can be produced. When a lower level of geography is used, such as output areas (which have a minimum of 100 persons), the statistics produced have less detail. This is to protect the confidentiality of people and ensure that individuals or their characteristics cannot be identified.
_ Lower tier local authorities_
Lower tier local authorities provide a range of local services. There are 309 lower tier local authorities in England made up of 181 non-metropolitan districts, 59 unitary authorities, 36 metropolitan districts and 33 London boroughs (including City of London). In Wales there are 22 local authorities made up of 22 unitary authorities.
Coverage
Census 2021 statistics are published for the whole of England and Wales. However, you can choose to filter areas by:
Economic activity status
People aged 16 years and over are economically active if, between 15 March and 21 March 2021, they were:
It is a measure of whether or not a person was an active participant in the labour market during this period. Economically inactive are those aged 16 years and over who did not have a job between 15 March to 21 March 2021 and had not looked for work between 22 February to 21 March 2021 or could not start work within two weeks.
The census definition differs from International Labour Organization definition used on the Labour Force Survey, so estimates are not directly comparable.
This classification splits out full-time students from those who are not full-time students when they are employed or unemployed. It is recommended to sum these together to look at all of those in employment or unemployed, or to use the four category labour market classification, if you want to look at all those with a particular labour market status.
Ethnic group
The ethnic group that the person completing the census feels they belong to. This could be based on their culture, family background, identity or physical appearance.
Respondents could choose one out of 19 tick-box response categories, including write-in response options.
Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.
Background
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a unique source of information using international definitions of employment and unemployment and economic inactivity, together with a wide range of related topics such as occupation, training, hours of work and personal characteristics of household members aged 16 years and over. It is used to inform social, economic and employment policy. The LFS was first conducted biennially from 1973-1983. Between 1984 and 1991 the survey was carried out annually and consisted of a quarterly survey conducted throughout the year and a 'boost' survey in the spring quarter (data were then collected seasonally). From 1992 quarterly data were made available, with a quarterly sample size approximately equivalent to that of the previous annual data. The survey then became known as the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS). From December 1994, data gathering for Northern Ireland moved to a full quarterly cycle to match the rest of the country, so the QLFS then covered the whole of the UK (though some additional annual Northern Ireland LFS datasets are also held at the UK Data Archive). Further information on the background to the QLFS may be found in the documentation.
Longitudinal data
The LFS retains each sample household for five consecutive quarters, with a fifth of the sample replaced each quarter. The main survey was designed to produce cross-sectional data, but the data on each individual have now been linked together to provide longitudinal information. The longitudinal data comprise two types of linked datasets, created using the weighting method to adjust for non-response bias. The two-quarter datasets link data from two consecutive waves, while the five-quarter datasets link across a whole year (for example January 2010 to March 2011 inclusive) and contain data from all five waves. A full series of longitudinal data has been produced, going back to winter 1992. Linking together records to create a longitudinal dimension can, for example, provide information on gross flows over time between different labour force categories (employed, unemployed and economically inactive). This will provide detail about people who have moved between the categories. Also, longitudinal information is useful in monitoring the effects of government policies and can be used to follow the subsequent activities and circumstances of people affected by specific policy initiatives, and to compare them with other groups in the population. There are however methodological problems which could distort the data resulting from this longitudinal linking. The ONS continues to research these issues and advises that the presentation of results should be carefully considered, and warnings should be included with outputs where necessary.
New reweighting policy
Following the new reweighting policy ONS has reviewed the latest population estimates made available during 2019 and have decided not to carry out a 2019 LFS and APS reweighting exercise. Therefore, the next reweighting exercise will take place in 2020. These will incorporate the 2019 Sub-National Population Projection data (published in May 2020) and 2019 Mid-Year Estimates (published in June 2020). It is expected that reweighted Labour Market aggregates and microdata will be published towards the end of 2020/early 2021.
LFS Documentation
The documentation available from the Archive to accompany LFS datasets largely consists of the latest version of each user guide volume alongside the appropriate questionnaire for the year concerned. However, volumes are updated periodically by ONS, so users are advised to check the latest documents on the ONS Labour Force Survey - User Guidance pages before commencing analysis. This is especially important for users of older QLFS studies, where information and guidance in the user guide documents may have changed over time.
Additional data derived from the QLFS
The Archive also holds further QLFS series: End User Licence (EUL) quarterly data; Secure Access datasets; household datasets; quarterly, annual and ad hoc module datasets compiled for Eurostat; and some additional annual Northern Ireland datasets.
Variables DISEA and LNGLST
Dataset A08 (Labour market status of disabled people) which ONS suspended due to an apparent discontinuity between April to June 2017 and July to September 2017 is now available. As a result of this apparent discontinuity and the inconclusive investigations at this stage, comparisons should be made with caution between April to June 2017 and subsequent time periods. However users should note that the estimates are not seasonally adjusted, so some of the change between quarters could be due to seasonality. Further recommendations on historical comparisons of the estimates will...
Abstract copyright UK Data Service and data collection copyright owner.
Background
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) is a unique source of information using international definitions of employment and unemployment and economic inactivity, together with a wide range of related topics such as occupation, training, hours of work and personal characteristics of household members aged 16 years and over. It is used to inform social, economic and employment policy. The Annual Population Survey, also held at the UK Data Archive, is derived from the LFS.
The LFS was first conducted biennially from 1973-1983, then annually between 1984 and 1991, comprising a quarterly survey conducted throughout the year and a 'boost' survey in the spring quarter. From 1992 it moved to a quarterly cycle with a sample size approximately equivalent to that of the previous annual data. Northern Ireland was also included in the survey from December 1994. Further information on the background to the QLFS may be found in the documentation.
The UK Data Service also holds a Secure Access version of the QLFS (see below); household datasets; two-quarter and five-quarter longitudinal datasets; LFS datasets compiled for Eurostat; and some additional annual Northern Ireland datasets.
LFS Documentation
The documentation available from the Archive to accompany LFS datasets largely consists of the latest version of each user guide volume alongside the appropriate questionnaire for the year concerned (the latest questionnaire available covers July-September 2022). Volumes are updated periodically, so users are advised to check the latest documents on the ONS Labour Force Survey - User Guidance pages before commencing analysis. This is especially important for users of older QLFS studies, where information and guidance in the user guide documents may have changed over time.
LFS response to COVID-19
From April 2020 to May 2022, additional non-calendar quarter LFS microdata were made available to cover the pandemic period. The first additional microdata to be released covered February to April 2020 and the final non-calendar dataset covered March-May 2022. Publication then returned to calendar quarters only. Within the additional non-calendar COVID-19 quarters, pseudonymised variables Casenop and Hserialp may contain a significant number of missing cases (set as -9). These variables may not be available in full for the additional COVID-19 datasets until the next standard calendar quarter is produced. The income weight variable, PIWT, is not available in the non-calendar quarters, although the person weight (PWT) is included. Please consult the documentation for full details.
Occupation data for 2021 and 2022 data files
The ONS has identified an issue with the collection of some occupational data in 2021 and 2022 data files in a number of their surveys. While they estimate any impacts will be small overall, this will affect the accuracy of the breakdowns of some detailed (four-digit Standard Occupational Classification (SOC)) occupations, and data derived from them. Further information can be found in the ONS article published on 11 July 2023: Revision of miscoded occupational data in the ONS Labour Force Survey, UK: January 2021 to September 2022.
2024 Reweighting
In February 2024, reweighted person-level data from July-September 2022 onwards were released. Up to July-September 2023, only the person weight was updated (PWT23); the income weight remains at 2022 (PIWT22). The 2023 income weight (PIWT23) was included from the October-December 2023 quarter. Users are encouraged to read the ONS methodological note of 5 February, Impact of reweighting on Labour Force Survey key indicators: 2024, which includes important information on the 2024 reweighting exercise.
End User Licence and Secure Access QLFS data
Two versions of the QLFS are available from UKDS. One is available under the standard End User Licence (EUL) agreement, and the other is a Secure Access version. The EUL version includes country and Government Office Region geography, 3-digit Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) and 3-digit industry group for main, second and last job (from July-September 2015, 4-digit industry class is available for main job only).
The Secure Access version contains more detailed variables relating to:
The unemployment rate of the United Kingdom was 4.4 percent in January 2025, unchanged from the previous month. Before the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK had relatively low levels of unemployment, comparable with the mid-1970s. Between January 2000 and the most recent month, unemployment was highest in November 2011 when the unemployment rate hit 8.5 percent.
Will unemployment continue to rise in 2025?
Although low by historic standards, there has been a noticeable uptick in the UK's unemployment rate, with other labor market indicators also pointing to further loosening. In December 2024, the number of job vacancies in the UK, fell to its lowest level since May 2021, while payrolled employment declined by 47,000 compared with November. Whether this is a continuation of a broader cooling of the labor market since 2022, or a reaction to more recent economic developments, such as upcoming tax rises for employers, remains to be seen. Forecasts made in late 2024 suggest that the unemployment rate will remain relatively stable in 2025, averaging out at 4.1 percent, and falling again to four percent in 2026.
Demographics of the unemployed
As of the third quarter of 2024, the unemployment rate for men was slightly higher than that of women, at 4.4 percent, compared to 4.1 percent. During the financial crisis at the end of the 2000s, the unemployment rate for women peaked at a quarterly rate of 7.7 percent, whereas for men, the rate was 9.1 percent. Unemployment is also heavily associated with age, and young people in general are far more vulnerable to unemployment than older age groups. In late 2011, for example, the unemployment rate for those aged between 16 and 24 reached 22.3 percent, compared with 8.2 percent for people aged 25 to 34, while older age groups had even lower peaks during this time.