The highest average temperature recorded in 2024 until November was in August, at 16.8 degrees Celsius. Since 2015, the highest average daily temperature in the UK was registered in July 2018, at 18.7 degrees Celsius. The summer of 2018 was the joint hottest since institutions began recording temperatures in 1910. One noticeable anomaly during this period was in December 2015, when the average daily temperature reached 9.5 degrees Celsius. This month also experienced the highest monthly rainfall in the UK since before 2014, with England, Wales, and Scotland suffering widespread flooding. Daily hours of sunshine Unsurprisingly, the heat wave that spread across the British Isles in 2018 was the result of particularly sunny weather. July 2018 saw an average of 8.7 daily sun hours in the United Kingdom. This was more hours of sun than was recorded in July 2024, which only saw 5.8 hours of sun. Temperatures are on the rise Since the 1960s, there has been an increase in regional temperatures across the UK. Between 1961 and 1990, temperatures in England averaged nine degrees Celsius, and from 2013 to 2022, average temperatures in the country had increased to 10.3 degrees Celsius. Due to its relatively southern location, England continues to rank as the warmest country in the UK.

The annual mean temperature in the United Kingdom has fluctuated greatly since 1990. Temperatures during this period were at their highest in 2022, surpassing ** degrees Celsius. In 2010, the mean annual temperature stood at **** degrees, the lowest recorded during this time. Daily temperatures Average daily temperatures have remained stable since the turn of the century, rarely dropping below ** degrees Celsius. In 2010, they dropped to a low of **** degrees Celsius. The peak average daily temperature was recorded in 2022 when it reached **** degrees. This was an increase of *** degree Celsius compared to the long-term mean, and the most positive deviation during the period of consideration. Highs and lows The maximum average temperature recorded across the UK since 2015 was in July 2018. This month saw a maximum temperature of **** degrees Celsius. In comparison, the lowest monthly minimum temperature was in February of the same year, at just minus *** degrees. This was an especially cold February, as the previous year the minimum temperature for this month was *** degrees.

Temperature in the United Kingdom increased to 10.14 celsius in 2023 from 10.13 celsius in 2022. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United Kingdom Average Temperature.

The average temperature across the United Kingdom presented a trend of continuous growth since 1961. During the first period, from 1961 to 1990, the country recorded an average temperature of 8.3 degrees Celsius. In the next period, from 1991 to 2020, the UK's average temperature increased by 0.8 degrees Celsius and increased further by 0.5 degrees Celsius between 2014 and 2023. In the latter year, figures remained at 10 degrees Celsius, 1.7 degrees warmer than the average recorded between 1961 and 1990, illustrating the effects of climate change. Nevertheless, 2022 was the warmest year in the United Kingdom.

Some say climate change is the biggest threat of our age while others say it’s a myth based on dodgy science. We are turning some of the data over to you so you can form your own view.

Even more than with other data sets that Kaggle has featured, there’s a huge amount of data cleaning and preparation that goes into putting together a long-time study of climate trends. Early data was collected by technicians using mercury thermometers, where any variation in the visit time impacted measurements. In the 1940s, the construction of airports caused many weather stations to be moved. In the 1980s, there was a move to electronic thermometers that are said to have a cooling bias.

Given this complexity, there are a range of organizations that collate climate trends data. The three most cited land and ocean temperature data sets are NOAA’s MLOST, NASA’s GISTEMP and the UK’s HadCrut.

We have repackaged the data from a newer compilation put together by the Berkeley Earth, which is affiliated with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Study combines 1.6 billion temperature reports from 16 pre-existing archives. It is nicely packaged and allows for slicing into interesting subsets (for example by country). They publish the source data and the code for the transformations they applied. They also use methods that allow weather observations from shorter time series to be included, meaning fewer observations need to be thrown away.

In this dataset, we have include several files:

Global Land and Ocean-and-Land Temperatures (GlobalTemperatures.csv):

• Date: starts in 1750 for average land temperature and 1850 for max and min land temperatures and global ocean and land temperatures
• LandAverageTemperature: global average land temperature in celsius
• LandAverageTemperatureUncertainty: the 95% confidence interval around the average
• LandMaxTemperature: global average maximum land temperature in celsius
• LandMaxTemperatureUncertainty: the 95% confidence interval around the maximum land temperature
• LandMinTemperature: global average minimum land temperature in celsius
• LandMinTemperatureUncertainty: the 95% confidence interval around the minimum land temperature
• LandAndOceanAverageTemperature: global average land and ocean temperature in celsius
• LandAndOceanAverageTemperatureUncertainty: the 95% confidence interval around the global average land and ocean temperature

Other files include:

• Global Average Land Temperature by Country (GlobalLandTemperaturesByCountry.csv)
• Global Average Land Temperature by State (GlobalLandTemperaturesByState.csv)
• Global Land Temperatures By Major City (GlobalLandTemperaturesByMajorCity.csv)
• Global Land Temperatures By City (GlobalLandTemperaturesByCity.csv)

The raw data comes from the Berkeley Earth data page.

This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tas_winter_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.

England's highest monthly mean air temperatures are typically recorded in July and August of each year. Since 2015, the warmest mean temperature was measured in July 2018 at 18.8 degrees Celsius. On the other hand, February of that same year registered the coolest temperature, at 2.6 degrees Celsius. In April 2025, the mean air temperature was 10.3 degrees Celsius, slightly higher than the same month the previous year. The English weather England is the warmest region in the United Kingdom and the driest. In 2024, the average annual temperature in England amounted to 10.73 degrees Celsius – around 1.1 degrees above the national mean. That same year, precipitation in England stood at about 1,020 millimeters. By contrast, Scotland – the wettest region in the UK – recorded over 1,500 millimeters of rainfall in 2024. Temperatures on the rise Throughout the last decades, the average temperature in the United Kingdom has seen an upward trend, reaching a record high in 2022. Global temperatures have experienced a similar pattern over the same period. This gradual increase in the Earth's average temperature is primarily due to various human activities, such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation, which lead to the emission of greenhouse gases. This phenomenon has severe consequences, including more frequent and intense weather events, rising sea levels, and adverse effects on human health and the environment.

This data-set contains 3 fields for each fixed period (1981-2000, 2001-2020) and Global Warming Level (1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C, 3.5°C, 4°C) combination: the median, 2nd lowest and 2nd highest among the 12 ensemble members. The fields are named accordingly; e.g. the 2nd lowest at 2.5°C is tasmin_winter_25_lowerTo understand the data, refer to the LACS Scientific Detail.To understand how to explore the data, see the User Guides available on the Climate Data Portal.

[Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.37°C.]What does the data show? This dataset shows the change in winter minimum temperature for a range of global warming levels, including the recent past (2001-2020), compared to the 1981-2000 baseline period. Here, winter is defined as December-January-February.The dataset uses projections of daily minimum air temperature from UKCP18 which are averaged to give values for the 1981-2000 baseline, the recent past (2001-2020) and global warming levels. The warming levels available are 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C and 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The recent past value and global warming level values are stated as a change (in °C) relative to the 1981-2000 value. This enables users to compare winter minimum temperature trends for the different periods. In addition to the change values, values for the 1981-2000 baseline (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and recent past (2001-2020, corresponding to 0.87°C warming) are also provided. This is summarised in the table below.PeriodDescription1981-2000 baselineAverage temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past)Average temperature (°C) for the period2001-2020 (recent past) changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20001.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20002.5°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20003°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-20004°C global warming level changeTemperature change (°C) relative to 1981-2000What is a global warming level?The Winter Minimum Temperature Change is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Winter Minimum Temperature Change, an average is taken across the 21 year period.We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?These data contain a field for each warming level and the 1981-2000 baseline. They are named 'tasmin winter change' (change in air 'temperature at surface'), the warming level or baseline, and 'upper' 'median' or 'lower' as per the description below. e.g. ‘tasmin winter change 2.0 median' is the median value for winter for the 2.0°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not in field names, e.g. 'tasmin winter change 2.0 median' is named ‘tasmin_winter_change_20_median'. To understand how to explore the data, refer to the New Users ESRI Storymap. Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘tasmin winter change 2.0°C median’ values.What do the 'median', 'upper', and 'lower' values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future.For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Winter Minimum Temperature Change was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location.The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘higher’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and higher fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline period as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksFor further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.

The UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) projections of temperature from low, medium and high emissions scenarios' equivalent global temperature changes. They are probabilistic climate predictions based on families of runs of the Met Office Hadley Centre climate models HadCM3, HadRM3 and HadSM3, plus climate models from other climate centres contributing to IPCC AR4 and CMIP3. The equivalent changes in global temperatures are taken from three emissions scenarios: low (IPCC SRES: B1), medium (IPCC SRES: A1B), and high (IPCC SRES: A1FI). Each scenario provides estimates over seven 30 year period averages: 2010-2039, 2030s = 2020-2049, 2040s = 2030-2059, 2050s = 2040-2069, 2060s = 2050-2079, 2070s = 2060-2089, 2080s = 2070-2099. Temperature changes are given relative to 1961-1990.

This dataset is associated with the following publication, where further details are provided and which should be cited for further applications:

Huang et al. 2022, Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales, Environ. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5.

The data contain daily temperature-related mortality estimates for ten NUTS 1 regions of England and Wales over the period 1900 to 2099, based on temperatures from the 2018 UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) simulations. Exposure-response relationships are based on present-day observations and extrapolated where necessary.

Variables in the csv files are as follows:

"tmean": daily mean temperature (in degrees C)
"bAD": backward attributable deaths
"fAD": forward attributable deaths

RCP 8.5 and RCP 2.6 scenarios are considered, as indicated in the file names. Model numbers refer to UKCP18 climate models.

Site specific (293 individual stations) monthly average (1981 - 2010)

        The data consists of:
        Max Temp (degrees C) 
        Min Temp (degrees C) 
        Sunshine (hours) 
        Rainfall (mm) 
        Raindays >=1.0mm (days) 
        Days of Air Frost (days) 
        Monthly mean wind speeds at 10m (knots)

        District and Region monthly average (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010)

        The data consists of:
        Max Temp (degrees C) 
        Min Temp (degrees C) 
        Sunshine (hours) 
        Rainfall (mm) 
        Raindays >=1.0mm (days) 
        Days of Air Frost (days)

        UK monthly average (1961-1990, 1971-2000, 1981-2010)

        The data consists of:
        Max Temp (degrees C) 
        Min Temp (degrees C) 
        Sunshine (hours) 
        Rainfall (mm) 
        Raindays >=1.0mm (days) 
        Days of Air Frost (days)

HadUK-Grid is a collection of gridded climate variables derived from the network of UK land surface observations. The data have been interpolated from meteorological station data onto a uniform grid to provide complete and consistent coverage across the UK. These data at 1 km resolution have been averaged across a set of discrete geographies defining UK administrative regions consistent with data from UKCP18 climate projections. The dataset spans the period from 1836 to 2023 but the start time is dependent on climate variable and temporal resolution.

The gridded data are produced for daily, monthly, seasonal and annual timescales, as well as long term averages for a set of climatological reference periods. Variables include air temperature (maximum, minimum and mean), precipitation, sunshine, mean sea level pressure, wind speed, relative humidity, vapour pressure, days of snow lying, and days of ground frost.

This data set supersedes the previous versions of this dataset which also superseded UKCP09 gridded observations. Subsequent versions may be released in due course and will follow the version numbering as outlined by Hollis et al. (2019, see linked documentation).

The changes for v1.3.0.ceda HadUK-Grid datasets are as follows:

• Added data for calendar year 2023

• Added newly digitised data for daily rainfall (62 Scottish stations for 1945-1960)

• Daily rainfall data for Bolton, 1916-1919 have been corrected (previous values were corrupted and needed redigitising)

• Daily rainfall data for Buxton, 1960 have been corrected (conversion from inches to mm had been applied incorrectly)

• Rainfall data from EA and SEPA APIs are included for the last three months of the dataset (Oct-Dec 2023) (for all earlier months the rainfall data from partner agencies is obtained from the Met Office's MIDAS database)

• The number of stations used for groundfrost, sunshine and windspeed have reduced at different points in the historical series when comparing v1.3.0.ceda to the previous version v1.2.0.ceda. These reductions in station numbers have been caused by changes made in the data processing steps upstream of the gridding process.

• For groundfrost this reduction has been caused by an automated quality control process flagging the historical data which have been removed as suspect (mostly affecting data from 1961 to 1970).

• For sunshine the small reduction in the 1960s has been caused by the removal of digitized monthly sunshine data through this period where we wish to reverify the data source.

• For windspeed the reduction from 1969 to 2010 has been caused by changes to rules applied relating to data completeness when compiling daily mean windspeeds, which in turn have followed through to monthly statistics.

• We plan to carry out a review of the data which have been excluded from this version. Some of it may be reintroduced in a future release.

• Net changes to the input station data:

• Total of 126970983 observations

• 125384735 (98.75%) unchanged

• 28487 (0.02%) modified for this version

• 1557761 (1.23%) added in this version

• 188522 (0.15%) deleted from this version

The primary purpose of these data are to facilitate monitoring of UK climate and research into climate change, impacts and adaptation. The datasets have been created by the Met Office with financial support from the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) in order to support the Public Weather Service Customer Group (PWSCG), the Hadley Centre Climate Programme, and the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) project. The output from a number of data recovery activities relating to 19th and early 20th Century data have been used in the creation of this dataset, these activities were supported by: the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme; the Natural Environment Research Council project "Analysis of historic drought and water scarcity in the UK"; the UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Strategic Priorities Fund UK Climate Resilience programme; The UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Public Engagement programme; the National Centre for Atmospheric Science; National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the NERC GloSAT project; and the contribution of many thousands of public volunteers. The dataset is provided under Open Government Licence.

Continuous dataset collection since 2014 through Urban Observatory (UO) sensors. The data covers the geographical area of the North East of England centred on Newcastle upon Tyne (for geographical extent and location of sensors see http://uoweb1.ncl.ac.uk). Data is collected from a variety of sensor platforms with different performance metrics, sampling regimes and sensitivity levels. Information on individual sensors should be consulted before use at http://uoweb1.ncl.ac.uk. Data can be downloaded or accessed via a REST API at http://uoweb1.ncl.ac.uk. Weather metrics include: Rain Int, Solar Radiation, Max Wind Speed, Rain Acc, Humidity, Pressure, Temperature, Wind Direction, Daily Accumulation Rainfall, Visibility, Wind Speed, Wind Gust, Rainfall

This data represents the probabilistic climate projections component of the past (observed) and future climate scenario projections data, produced as part of the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) project. Data has been produced by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, and provides information on changes in 21st century climate for the UK, helping to inform adaptation to a changing climate. The data represents mean global temperature anomalies with respect to the baseline periods 1981-2000, 1961-1990 or 1981-2010, and cover the period 1861 to 2100.

UKCP09 Time series of winter coldwave duration. Sum of days with daily minimum temperature more than 3 °C below 1961–90 daily normal for ≥5 consecutive days (November-April). The datasets have been created with financial support from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and they are being promoted by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) as part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/12/689/. To view this data you will have to register on the Met Office website, here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/climate-monitoring/UKCP09/register

UKCP09: Gridded datasets of annual values.Winter heatwave duration. The day-by-day sum of the mean number of degrees by which the air temperature is more than a value of 22 °C As summer heat wave but for November–April.

The datasets have been created with financial support from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) and they are being promoted by the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) as part of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09). http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/12/689/.

To view this data you will have to register on the Met Office website, here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/climate-monitoring/UKCP09/register

This archived Paleoclimatology Study is available from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), under the World Data Service (WDS) for Paleoclimatology. The associated NCEI study type is Borehole. The data include parameters of borehole with a geographic location of United Kingdom, British Isles. The time period coverage is from 450 to -33 in calendar years before present (BP). See metadata information for parameter and study location details. Please cite this study when using the data.

[Updated 28/01/25 to fix an issue in the ‘Lower’ values, which were not fully representing the range of uncertainty. ‘Median’ and ‘Higher’ values remain unchanged. The size of the change varies by grid cell and fixed period/global warming levels but the average difference between the 'lower' values before and after this update is 0.1.]What does the data show? The Annual Count of Icing Days is the number of days per year where the maximum daily temperature is below 0°C. Note the Annual Count of Icing Days is more severe than the Annual Count of Frost Days as icing days refer to the daily maximum temperature whereas the frost days refer to the daily minimum temperature. The Annual Count of Icing Days measures how many times the threshold is exceeded (not by how much) in a year. The results should be interpreted as an approximation of the projected number of days when the threshold is exceeded as there will be many factors such as natural variability and local scale processes that the climate model is unable to represent.The Annual Count of Icing Days is calculated for two baseline (historical) periods 1981-2000 (corresponding to 0.51°C warming) and 2001-2020 (corresponding to 0.87°C warming) and for global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 2.5°C, 3.0°C, 4.0°C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. This enables users to compare the future number of icing days to previous values. What are the possible societal impacts?The Annual Count of Icing Days indicates increased cold weather disruption due to a higher than normal chance of ice and snow. It is based on the maximum daily temperature being below 0°C, the temperature does not rise above 0°C for the entire day. Impacts include:Damage to crops.Transport disruption.Increased energy demand.The Annual Count of Frost Days, is a similar metric measuring impacts from cold temperatures, it indicates less severe cold weather impacts.What is a global warming level?The Annual Count of Icing Days is calculated from the UKCP18 regional climate projections using the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) where greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow. Instead of considering future climate change during specific time periods (e.g. decades) for this scenario, the dataset is calculated at various levels of global warming relative to the pre-industrial (1850-1900) period. The world has already warmed by around 1.1°C (between 1850–1900 and 2011–2020), whilst this dataset allows for the exploration of greater levels of warming. The global warming levels available in this dataset are 1.5°C, 2°C, 2.5°C, 3°C and 4°C. The data at each warming level was calculated using a 21 year period. These 21 year periods are calculated by taking 10 years either side of the first year at which the global warming level is reached. This time will be different for different model ensemble members. To calculate the value for the Annual Count of Icing Days, an average is taken across the 21 year period. Therefore, the Annual Count of Icing Days show the number of icing days that could occur each year, for each given level of warming. We cannot provide a precise likelihood for particular emission scenarios being followed in the real world future. However, we do note that RCP8.5 corresponds to emissions considerably above those expected with current international policy agreements. The results are also expressed for several global warming levels because we do not yet know which level will be reached in the real climate as it will depend on future greenhouse emission choices and the sensitivity of the climate system, which is uncertain. Estimates based on the assumption of current international agreements on greenhouse gas emissions suggest a median warming level in the region of 2.4-2.8°C, but it could either be higher or lower than this level.What are the naming conventions and how do I explore the data?This data contains a field for each global warming level and two baselines. They are named ‘Icing Days’, the warming level or baseline, and ‘upper’ ‘median’ or ‘lower’ as per the description below. E.g. ‘Icing Days 2.5 median’ is the median value for the 2.5°C warming level. Decimal points are included in field aliases but not field names e.g. ‘Icing Days 2.5 median’ is ‘IcingDays_25_median’. To understand how to explore the data, see this page: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/457e7a2bc73e40b089fac0e47c63a578Please note, if viewing in ArcGIS Map Viewer, the map will default to ‘Icing Days 2.0°C median’ values.What do the ‘median’, ‘upper’, and ‘lower’ values mean?Climate models are numerical representations of the climate system. To capture uncertainty in projections for the future, an ensemble, or group, of climate models are run. Each ensemble member has slightly different starting conditions or model set-ups. Considering all of the model outcomes gives users a range of plausible conditions which could occur in the future. For this dataset, the model projections consist of 12 separate ensemble members. To select which ensemble members to use, the Annual Count of Icing Days was calculated for each ensemble member and they were then ranked in order from lowest to highest for each location. The ‘lower’ fields are the second lowest ranked ensemble member. The ‘upper’ fields are the second highest ranked ensemble member. The ‘median’ field is the central value of the ensemble.This gives a median value, and a spread of the ensemble members indicating the range of possible outcomes in the projections. This spread of outputs can be used to infer the uncertainty in the projections. The larger the difference between the lower and upper fields, the greater the uncertainty.‘Lower’, ‘median’ and ‘upper’ are also given for the baseline periods as these values also come from the model that was used to produce the projections. This allows a fair comparison between the model projections and recent past. Useful linksThis dataset was calculated following the methodology in the ‘Future Changes to high impact weather in the UK’ report and uses the same temperature thresholds as the 'State of the UK Climate' report.Further information on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP).Further information on understanding climate data within the Met Office Climate Data Portal.