70 datasets found
  1. Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025

    • statista.com
    Updated Apr 16, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058454/yield-curve-usa/
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    Dataset updated
    Apr 16, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Apr 16, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

  2. d

    Interest Rate Statistics - Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates

    • catalog.data.gov
    • datadiscoverystudio.org
    • +2more
    Updated Feb 12, 2025
    + more versions
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    Office of Debt Management (2025). Interest Rate Statistics - Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates [Dataset]. https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/interest-rate-statistics-daily-treasury-yield-curve-rates
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    Dataset updated
    Feb 12, 2025
    Dataset provided by
    Office of Debt Management
    Description

    These rates are commonly referred to as Constant Maturity Treasury rates, or CMTs. Yields are interpolated by the Treasury from the daily yield curve. This curve, which relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity is based on the closing market bid yields on actively traded Treasury securities in the over-the-counter market. These market yields are calculated from composites of quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The yield values are read from the yield curve at fixed maturities, currently 1, 3 and 6 months and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 years. This method provides a yield for a 10 year maturity, for example, even if no outstanding security has exactly 10 years remaining to maturity.

  3. Treasury yield rates in the U.S. 2005-2024, by maturity

    • statista.com
    Updated Apr 16, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Treasury yield rates in the U.S. 2005-2024, by maturity [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1059669/yield-curve-usa/
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    Dataset updated
    Apr 16, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    At the end of 2024, the yield for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was 4.78 percent, slightly higher than the yields for bonds with short-term maturities. Bonds of longer maturities generally have higher yields as a reward for the uncertainty about the condition of financial markets in the future.

  4. Yield curve in the UK 2024

    • statista.com
    • ai-chatbox.pro
    Updated Jan 30, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Yield curve in the UK 2024 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1118682/yield-curve-united-kingdom/
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    Dataset updated
    Jan 30, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Dec 2024
    Area covered
    United Kingdom
    Description

    As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

  5. Yield Curve Models and Data - Nominal Yield Curve

    • s.cnmilf.com
    • catalog.data.gov
    Updated Dec 18, 2024
    + more versions
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    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2024). Yield Curve Models and Data - Nominal Yield Curve [Dataset]. https://s.cnmilf.com/user74170196/https/catalog.data.gov/dataset/yield-curve-models-and-data-nominal-yield-curve
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    Dataset updated
    Dec 18, 2024
    Dataset provided by
    Federal Reserve Systemhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/
    Description

    These are nominal yield curves, obtained by fitting a parametric form to the prices of off-the-run nominal Treasury coupon securities. The data are available at daily frequency, from 1961 to present.

  6. Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth

    • clevelandfed.org
    csv
    Updated Oct 5, 2020
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    Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2020). Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth [Dataset]. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-predicted-gdp-growth
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    csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Oct 5, 2020
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Federal Reserve Bank of Clevelandhttps://www.clevelandfed.org/
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

  7. Yield Curve Models and Data - TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation

    • catalog.data.gov
    Updated Dec 18, 2024
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    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2024). Yield Curve Models and Data - TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation [Dataset]. https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/yield-curve-models-and-data-tips-yield-curve-and-inflation-compensation
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    Dataset updated
    Dec 18, 2024
    Dataset provided by
    Federal Reserve Systemhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/
    Description

    The yield curve, also called the term structure of interest rates, refers to the relationship between the remaining time-to-maturity of debt securities and the yield on those securities. Yield curves have many practical uses, including pricing of various fixed-income securities, and are closely watched by market participants and policymakers alike for potential clues about the markets perception of the path of the policy rate and the macroeconomic outlook. This page provides daily estimated real yield curve parameters, smoothed yields on hypothetical TIPS, and implied inflation compensation, from 1999 to the present. Because this is a staff research product and not an official statistical release, it is subject to delay, revision, or methodological changes without advance notice.

  8. J

    Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations (replication data)

    • jda-test.zbw.eu
    • journaldata.zbw.eu
    csv, txt, zip
    Updated Jul 22, 2024
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    Carlo Altavilla; Raffaella Giacomini; Giuseppe Ragusa; Carlo Altavilla; Raffaella Giacomini; Giuseppe Ragusa (2024). Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations (replication data) [Dataset]. https://jda-test.zbw.eu/dataset/anchoring-the-yield-curve-using-survey-expectations
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    csv(8015675), csv(190022), txt(4142), csv(42477), zip(93155858)Available download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jul 22, 2024
    Dataset provided by
    ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
    Authors
    Carlo Altavilla; Raffaella Giacomini; Giuseppe Ragusa; Carlo Altavilla; Raffaella Giacomini; Giuseppe Ragusa
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    The dynamic behavior of the term structure of interest rates is difficult to replicate with models, and even models with a proven track record of empirical performance have underperformed since the early 2000s. On the other hand, survey expectations can accurately predict yields, but they are typically not available for all maturities and/or forecast horizons. We show how survey expectations can be exploited to improve the accuracy of yield curve forecasts given by a base model. We do so by employing a flexible exponential tilting method that anchors the model forecasts to the survey expectations, and we develop a test to guide the choice of the anchoring points. The method implicitly incorporates into yield curve forecasts any information that survey participants have access to-such as information about the current state of the economy or forward-looking information contained in monetary policy announcements-without the need to explicitly model it. We document that anchoring delivers large and significant gains in forecast accuracy relative to the class of models that are widely adopted by financial and policy institutions for forecasting the term structure of interest rates.

  9. F

    10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate

    • fred.stlouisfed.org
    json
    Updated Jul 14, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YFF
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    jsonAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jul 14, 2025
    License

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-citation-requiredhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-citation-required

    Description

    Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-07-11 about yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

  10. Government bond yields curve France 2025

    • statista.com
    Updated Jul 10, 2025
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    Statista (2025). Government bond yields curve France 2025 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1234096/french-government-bonds-yields-curve/
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    Dataset updated
    Jul 10, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    Statistahttp://statista.com/
    Time period covered
    Apr 16, 2025
    Area covered
    France
    Description

    As of April 16, 2025, French government debt securities with a maturity date of over six years returned higher yields than *** year before. On the other hand, the yield for a maturity shorter than *** year was lower than *** year before. The lowest yield was found on securities with maturities of two years, which returned **** percent. Conversely, 30-year French government bonds recorded a positive yield of **** percent. Positive bond yields mean that investors receive more money at the bond's maturity than the original purchase price of the bond, owing to low demand for the bond on money or capital markets.

  11. t

    Euro yield curves - monthly data - Vdataset - LDM

    • service.tib.eu
    Updated Jan 8, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). Euro yield curves - monthly data - Vdataset - LDM [Dataset]. https://service.tib.eu/ldmservice/dataset/eurostat_lniffuxsnnme0bq47o7qw
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    Dataset updated
    Jan 8, 2025
    Description

    Euro yield curves - monthly data

  12. d

    Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates

    • catalog.data.gov
    • data.wu.ac.at
    Updated Dec 1, 2023
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    Office of Debt Management (2023). Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates [Dataset]. https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/daily-treasury-real-yield-curve-rates
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    Dataset updated
    Dec 1, 2023
    Dataset provided by
    Office of Debt Management
    Description

    These rates are commonly referred to as "Real Constant Maturity Treasury" rates, or R-CMTs. Real yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) at "constant maturity" are interpolated by the U.S. Treasury from Treasury's daily real yield curve. These real market yields are calculated from composites of secondary market quotations obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The real yield values are read from the real yield curve at fixed maturities, currently 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 years. This method provides a real yield for a 10 year maturity, for example, even if no outstanding security has exactly 10 years remaining to maturity. Dataset updated daily every weekday.

  13. Yield Curve Models and Data - Three-Factor Nominal Term Structure Model

    • catalog.data.gov
    • s.cnmilf.com
    Updated Dec 18, 2024
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    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2024). Yield Curve Models and Data - Three-Factor Nominal Term Structure Model [Dataset]. https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/yield-curve-models-and-data-three-factor-nominal-term-structure-model
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    Dataset updated
    Dec 18, 2024
    Dataset provided by
    Federal Reserve Systemhttp://www.federalreserve.gov/
    Description

    This is a no-arbitrage dynamic term structure model, implemented as in Kim and Wright using the methodology of Kim and Orphanides . The underlying model is the standard affine Gaussian model with three factors that are latent (i.e., the factors are defined only statistically and do not have a specific economic meaning). The model is parameterized in a maximally flexible way (i.e., it is the most general model of its kind with three factors that are econometrically identified). In the estimation of the parameters of the model, data on survey forecasts of 3-month Treasury bill (T-bill) rate are used in addition to yields data in order to help address the small sample problems that often pervade econometric estimation with persistent time series like bond yields.

  14. t

    Euro yield curves - quarterly data

    • service.tib.eu
    • data.europa.eu
    Updated Jan 8, 2025
    + more versions
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    (2025). Euro yield curves - quarterly data [Dataset]. https://service.tib.eu/ldmservice/dataset/eurostat_0i9pslwbvx5o4udujedxa
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    Dataset updated
    Jan 8, 2025
    Description

    Euro yield curves - quarterly data

  15. M

    10Y/2Y Yield Curve | Data | 1976-2025

    • macrotrends.net
    csv
    Updated Jul 31, 2025
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    MACROTRENDS (2025). 10Y/2Y Yield Curve | Data | 1976-2025 [Dataset]. https://www.macrotrends.net/datasets/3000/10y2y-yield-curve
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    csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jul 31, 2025
    Dataset authored and provided by
    MACROTRENDS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    1976 - 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    10Y/2Y Yield Curve: 49 years of historical data from 1976 to 2025.

  16. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield

    • ceicdata.com
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    CEICdata.com, United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield [Dataset]. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/united-states/recession-probability/recession-prob-yield-curve-3-month-treasury-yield
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    Dataset provided by
    CEIC Data
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Apr 1, 2017 - Mar 1, 2018
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data was reported at 2.250 % in Oct 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.130 % for Sep 2018. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data is updated monthly, averaging 4.620 % from Jan 1959 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 718 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 16.300 % in May 1981 and a record low of 0.010 % in Dec 2011. United States Recession Prob: Yield Curve: 3 Month Treasury Yield data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S021: Recession Probability.

  17. U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Rates – Daily Panel Data

    • figshare.com
    csv
    Updated Jun 23, 2025
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    Duane Ebesu (2025). U.S. Treasury Yield Curve Rates – Daily Panel Data [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.29382761.v1
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    csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    Jun 23, 2025
    Dataset provided by
    Figsharehttp://figshare.com/
    Authors
    Duane Ebesu
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    This data set contains the U.S. Treasury yield curve rates on a daily basis for a variety of maturities ranging from 1-month bills to 30-year bonds. Panel-formatted, it can be used for analyses of term structures of interest rates, forecasting of monetary policy, and time-series analysis of sovereign risk-free standards. It is especially appropriate for empirical applications of finance including bond pricing, cost of borrowing by municipalities, and macro-financial risk measurement.

  18. T

    United States 30 Year Bond Yield Data

    • tradingeconomics.com
    csv, excel, json, xml
    Updated May 27, 2017
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2017). United States 30 Year Bond Yield Data [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/30-year-bond-yield
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    excel, json, xml, csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset updated
    May 27, 2017
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Feb 15, 1977 - Jul 15, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.96% on July 15, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.02 points, though it remains 0.58 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

  19. J

    SMOOTH DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATION TO THE US TERM STRUCTURE OF...

    • journaldata.zbw.eu
    txt
    Updated Dec 7, 2022
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    Borus Jungbacker; Siem Jan Koopman; Michel van der Wel; Borus Jungbacker; Siem Jan Koopman; Michel van der Wel (2022). SMOOTH DYNAMIC FACTOR ANALYSIS WITH APPLICATION TO THE US TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES (replication data) [Dataset]. http://doi.org/10.15456/jae.2022321.0712353933
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    txt(1307), txt(53831)Available download formats
    Dataset updated
    Dec 7, 2022
    Dataset provided by
    ZBW - Leibniz Informationszentrum Wirtschaft
    Authors
    Borus Jungbacker; Siem Jan Koopman; Michel van der Wel; Borus Jungbacker; Siem Jan Koopman; Michel van der Wel
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Description

    We consider the dynamic factor model and show how smoothness restrictions can be imposed on factor loadings by using cubic spline functions. We develop statistical procedures based on Wald, Lagrange multiplier and likelihood ratio tests for this purpose. The methodology is illustrated by analyzing a newly updated monthly time series panel of US term structure of interest rates. Dynamic factor models with and without smooth loadings are compared with dynamic models based on Nelson-Siegel and cubic spline yield curves. We conclude that smoothness restrictions on factor loadings are supported by the interest rate data and can lead to more accurate forecasts.

  20. T

    US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield Data

    • tradingeconomics.com
    • it.tradingeconomics.com
    • +14more
    csv, excel, json, xml
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    TRADING ECONOMICS (2025). US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield Data [Dataset]. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
    Explore at:
    json, xml, excel, csvAvailable download formats
    Dataset authored and provided by
    TRADING ECONOMICS
    License

    Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
    License information was derived automatically

    Time period covered
    Jun 1, 1912 - Jul 15, 2025
    Area covered
    United States
    Description

    The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 4.43% on July 15, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.02 points, though it remains 0.27 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

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Statista (2025). Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1058454/yield-curve-usa/
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Treasury yield curve in the U.S. 2025

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6 scholarly articles cite this dataset (View in Google Scholar)
Dataset updated
Apr 16, 2025
Dataset authored and provided by
Statistahttp://statista.com/
Time period covered
Apr 16, 2025
Area covered
United States
Description

As of April 16, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.34 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.86 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

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