Graph and download economic data for Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment from Q1 1949 to Q4 2035 about NAIRU, long-term, projection, unemployment, rate, and USA.

Unemployment Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 4.20 percent in May. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The misery index is an economic indicator that combines the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Although it is rare for both unemployment and inflation to be high at the same time, there have been instances of this occurring, such as during episodes of stagflation in the 1970s. Due to high levels of inflation since late 2021, the misery index in March 2023 is at a relatively high rate of 8.49 percent.

Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 7.152 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 7.136 % for 2021. Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 8.407 % from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2022, with 33 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.280 % in 1990 and a record low of 7.136 % in 2021. Ireland IE: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ireland – Table IE.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

Graph and download economic data for Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) (NROUST) from Q1 1949 to Q4 2031 about NAIRU, short-term, projection, unemployment, rate, and USA.

The Volcker Shock was a period of historically high interest rates precipitated by Federal Reserve Chairperson Paul Volcker's decision to raise the central bank's key interest rate, the Fed funds effective rate, during the first three years of his term. Volcker was appointed chairperson of the Fed in August 1979 by President Jimmy Carter, as replacement for William Miller, who Carter had made his treasury secretary. Volcker was one of the most hawkish (supportive of tighter monetary policy to stem inflation) members of the Federal Reserve's committee, and quickly set about changing the course of monetary policy in the U.S. in order to quell inflation. The Volcker Shock is remembered for bringing an end to over a decade of high inflation in the United States, prompting a deep recession and high unemployment, and for spurring on debt defaults among developing countries in Latin America who had borrowed in U.S. dollars.

Monetary tightening and the recessions of the early '80s

Beginning in October 1979, Volcker's Fed tightened monetary policy by raising interest rates. This decision had the effect of depressing demand and slowing down the U.S. economy, as credit became more expensive for households and businesses. The Fed funds rate, the key overnight rate at which banks lend their excess reserves to each other, rose as high as 17.6 percent in early 1980. The rate was allowed to fall back below 10 percent following this first peak, however, due to worries that inflation was not falling fast enough, a second cycle of monetary tightening was embarked upon starting in August of 1980. The rate would reach its all-time peak in June of 1981, at 19.1 percent. The second recession sparked by these hikes was far deeper than the 1980 recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8 percent in December 1980, the highest level since The Great Depression. This recession would drive inflation to a low point during Volcker's terms of 2.5 percent in August 1983.

The legacy of the Volcker Shock

By the end of Volcker's terms as Fed Chair, inflation was at a manageable rate of around four percent, while unemployment had fallen under six percent, as the economy grew and business confidence returned. While supporters of Volcker's actions point to these numbers as proof of the efficacy of his actions, critics have claimed that there were less harmful ways that inflation could have been brought under control. The recessions of the early 1980s are cited as accelerating deindustrialization in the U.S., as manufacturing jobs lost in 'rust belt' states such as Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania never returned during the years of recovery. The Volcker Shock was also a driving factor behind the Latin American debt crises of the 1980s, as governments in the region defaulted on debts which they had incurred in U.S. dollars. Debates about the validity of using interest rate hikes to get inflation under control have recently re-emerged due to the inflationary pressures facing the U.S. following the Coronavirus pandemic and the Federal Reserve's subsequent decision to embark on a course of monetary tightening.

Norway NO: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 3.514 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.480 % for 2021. Norway NO: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.462 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.744 % in 1993 and a record low of 2.775 % in 1985. Norway NO: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Norway – Table NO.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

What is the relationship between unemployment and inflation?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Labour Market: Unemployment Insurance: Unemployment Rate data was reported at 0.116 % in 12 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.116 % for 05 May 2025. Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Labour Market: Unemployment Insurance: Unemployment Rate data is updated weekly, averaging 0.050 % from Apr 2018 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 369 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.122 % in 31 Jul 2023 and a record low of 0.000 % in 30 Sep 2024. Core Inflation Nowcast: sa: Contribution: Labour Market: Unemployment Insurance: Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Inflation: Core.

This statistic shows the average inflation rate in Indonesia from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. In 2024, the average inflation rate in Indonesia amounted to about 2.3 percent compared to the previous year. The global financial crisis and economic consequences The global economy underwent a drastic slump due to the global financial crisis in 2008, which caused a continued increase in the general level of prices of goods and services; the highest recorded global inflation of the past decade took place in 2008, when the global inflation rate increased by more than 6.4 percent in comparison with the previous year. As for Indonesia, the country's inflation rate amounted to around 9.8 percent in comparison to the previous year. The financial crisis also impacted the global unemployment rate. In 2009, the global unemployment rate jumped to around 6.2 percent, and it is not expected to recover to pre-crisis levels anytime soon. The financial crisis impact on the Indonesian economy was slightly more severe: In 2008, the unemployment rate in Indonesia was around 8.4 percent, much higher than the global unemployment rate for the same year. It has, however, now decreased significantly, even though it is still not below the global level, the country itself has reached lower levels than before the crisis. After the financial crisis, the Indonesian government implemented several economic reforms and increased exports in order to strengthen the economy. In 2011, Indonesia exported goods with a value of more than 200 billion U.S. dollars. The main export partners of Indonesia are Japan, China and Singapore. As a result of increased exports, the Indonesian economy was able to grow, making Indonesia one of the twenty nations in the world with the largest gross domestic product in 2015.

South Korea NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 3.542 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.535 % for 2021. South Korea NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 3.437 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.236 % in 1998 and a record low of 2.793 % in 1991. South Korea NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s South Korea – Table KR.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

Lithuania LT: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 6.680 % in 2022. This records a decrease from the previous number of 6.683 % for 2021. Lithuania LT: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 7.322 % from Dec 2002 (Median) to 2022, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.571 % in 2011 and a record low of 5.965 % in 2002. Lithuania LT: NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Lithuania – Table LT.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 2.40 percent in May from 2.30 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

This statistic shows the unemployment rate of Iran from 1999 to 2024. In 2024, Iran's unemployment rate was estimated to amount to 9.19 percent of the total labor force. Employment and economy in Iran Iran’s unemployment rate has been above 10 percent for the last 10 years, and this rate is estimated to have peaked in 2014, when estimates reached 14 percent. Also, many of those who are considered employed in Iran are also considered underemployed. Unemployment in Iran is especially high among young people and women; over 70 percent of the population’s close to 80 million inhabitants are of working age, increasing the overall demand of these inhabitants for work. Iran’s economy has also been in a recession, which has exacerbated the difficulties to meet the employment demands of its inhabitants. Although the economy is expected to recover slightly in 2014, Iran's GDP is expected to decrease and the real GDP growth rate is either negative or quite low. In times of a struggling economy, it is typically more difficult to create jobs and introduce people to the labor force. Because Iran's economic activity still depends to a large extent on oil revenues, this also reduces the stability of the economy and employment. With a decreasing per capita GDP and a high inflation rate people are also more vulnerable to changes in income and employment, making the unemployment a pressing issue that the country will have to manage.

These are the replication files for Oraby (JCRE, 2022). The paper aims to replicate Svensson (American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2015).

Abstract: This paper replicates the main analysis of Svensson (2015) with some expansion to the original analysis, mainly for the United States. Overall, the replication exercise successfully confirms the conclusions of Svensson (2015). In both Sweden and the United States, empirical evidence supports the existence of a non-vertical long run Phillips curve. The slope of the long run Phillips curve recorded -0.75 in Sweden and -0.23 in the United States. While the average inflation rate in the United States was very close to its targeted level, the average inflation rate in Sweden was 0.6 percentage points below its targeted level over the sample period. The deviation of inflation rate from its targeted level in Sweden resulted in an unemployment cost equivalent to 0.8 percentage points over the sample period where the average unemployment rate recorded 7.4 percent compared with an estimated 6.6 percent had the average inflation rate been at its targeted level.

Australia NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data was reported at 5.413 % in 2022. This records an increase from the previous number of 5.345 % for 2021. Australia NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data is updated yearly, averaging 5.759 % from Dec 1985 (Median) to 2022, with 38 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.377 % in 1993 and a record low of 4.951 % in 2007. Australia NAIRU: Equilibrium Unemployment Rate data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.OECD.EO: Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment (NAIRU): Forecast: OECD Member: Annual. NAIRU - Equilibrium unemployment rate The equilibrium unemployment rate (code NAIRU) is estimated using a Kalman filter in a Phillips curve framework which assumes inflation expectations are anchored at the central bank’s inflation target . The NAIRU is then projected forward from the last estimated period using a simple autoregressive rule, exceptionally modified to account for recent labour market reforms, until the end of the forecasting horizon More details on methodology in Rusticelli E., Turner D. and M. C. Cavalleri (2015), Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No.1231 OECD, Economics Department Working Papers: Incorporating anchored inflation expectations in the Phillips Curve and in the derivation of OECD measures of equilibrium unemployment:https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/incorporating-anchored-inflation-expectations-in-the-phillips-curve-and-in-the-derivation-of-oecd-measures-of-equilibrium-unemployment_5js1gmq551wd-en

Unemployment Rate in China decreased to 5 percent in May from 5.10 percent in April of 2025. This dataset provides - China Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

In 2024, the rate of surveyed unemployment in urban areas of China amounted to approximately 5.1 percent. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.1 percent in 2025 and the following years. Monthly unemployment ranged at a level of around 5.3 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Unemployment rate in China In 2017, the National Statistics Bureau of China introduced surveyed unemployment as a new indicator of unemployment in the country. It is based on monthly surveys among the labor force in urban areas of China. Surveyed unemployment replaced registered unemployment figures, which were often criticized for missing out large parts of the urban labor force and thereby not presenting a true picture of urban unemployment levels. However, current unemployment figures still do not include rural areas.A main concern in China’s current state of employment lies within the large regional differences. As of 2021, the unemployment rate in northeastern regions of China was notably higher than in China’s southern parts. In Beijing, China’s political and cultural center, registered unemployment ranged at around 3.2 percent for 2021. Indicators of economic activities Apart from the unemployment rate, most commonly used indicators to measure economic activities of a country are GDP growth and inflation rate. According to an IMF forecast, GDP growth in China will decrease to about four percent in 2025, after five percent in 2023, depicting a decrease of more than six percentage points from 10.6 percent in 2010. Quarterly growth data published by the National Bureau of Statistics indicated 5.4 percent GDP growth for the first quarter of 2025.

Unemployment Rate in Germany remained unchanged at 6.30 percent in May. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Unemployment Rate in France increased to 7.40 percent in the first quarter of 2025 from 7.30 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - France Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.