50 years+ of historical inflaction, interest and unemployment rates by country

data source: https://data.worldbank.org cover image credit: https://www.pexels.com/photo/one-dollar-bill-3943739/

Description:

This dataset provides key economic indicators from various countries between 2010 and 2023. The dataset includes monthly data on inflation rates, GDP growth rates, unemployment rates, interest rates, and stock market index values. The data has been sourced from reputable global financial institutions and is suitable for economic analysis, machine learning models, and forecasting economic trends.

Data Sources:

The data has been generated to simulate real-world economic conditions, mimicking information from trusted sources like: - World Bank for GDP growth and inflation data - International Monetary Fund (IMF) for macroeconomic data - OECD for labor market statistics - National Stock Exchanges for stock market index values

Columns:

1. Date: The specific date (in Year/Month/Day format) representing when the data was collected.
2. Country: The country the data pertains to (e.g., USA, Germany, Japan).
3. Inflation Rate (%): The rate of inflation for that country, showing how fast prices for goods and services are increasing.
4. GDP Growth Rate (%): The percentage growth of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), indicating economic expansion or contraction.
5. Unemployment Rate (%): The percentage of the working-age population that is unemployed.
6. Interest Rate (%): The central bank's interest rate, used to control inflation and influence the economy.
7. Stock Index Value: The value of the country’s main stock market index, reflecting the performance of the stock market.

Potential Uses: - Economic Analysis: Researchers and analysts can use this dataset to study trends in inflation, GDP growth, unemployment, and other economic factors. - Machine Learning: This dataset can be used to train models for predicting economic trends or market performance. Financial Forecasting: Investors and economists can leverage this data for forecasting market movements based on economic conditions. - Comparative Studies: The dataset allows comparisons across countries and regions, offering insights into global economic performance.

Unemployment Rate in the United States increased to 4.40 percent in September from 4.30 percent in August of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

I have compiled this dataset from publicly available data sources. It contains daily S&P 500 index price, trading volume, monthly Inflation rate, monthly unemployment rate and monthly CPI numbers for last 50 years. Motivation behind this dataset is for users to attempt to create ML/AI based models to predict the future prices of the index. Feel free to create new datasets utilizing this data and adding more relevant features that you can find that can impact the price of the index

Inflation Rate in the United States increased to 3 percent in September from 2.90 percent in August of 2025. This dataset provides - United States Inflation Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Using the statistical technique of fuzzy clustering, regimes of inflation and unemployment are explored for the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany between 1871 and 2009. We identify for each country three distinct regimes in inflation/unemployment space. There is considerable similarity across the countries in both the regimes themselves and in the timings of the transitions between regimes. However, the typical rates of inflation and unemployment experienced in the regimes are substantially different. Further, even within a given regime, the results of the clustering show persistent fluctuations in the degree of attachment to that regime of inflation/unemployment observations over time. The economic implications of the results are that, first, the inflation/unemployment relationship experiences from time to time major shifts. Second, that it is also inherently unstable even in the short run. It is likely that the factors which govern the inflation/unemployment trade off are so multi-dimensional that it is hard to see that there is a way of identifying periods of short run Phillips curves which can be assigned to particular historical periods with any degree of accuracy or predictability. The short run may be so short as to be meaningless. The analysis shows that reliance on any kind of trade off between inflation and unemployment for policy purposes is entirely misplaced.

Unemployment Rate in France increased to 7.70 percent in the third quarter of 2025 from 7.60 percent in the second quarter of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - France Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Context

The Federal Reserve sets interest rates to promote conditions that achieve the mandate set by the Congress — high employment, low and stable inflation, sustainable economic growth, and moderate long-term interest rates. Interest rates set by the Fed directly influence the cost of borrowing money. Lower interest rates encourage more people to obtain a mortgage for a new home or to borrow money for an automobile or for home improvement. Lower rates encourage businesses to borrow funds to invest in expansion such as purchasing new equipment, updating plants, or hiring more workers. Higher interest rates restrain such borrowing by consumers and businesses.

Content

This dataset includes data on the economic conditions in the United States on a monthly basis since 1954. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds (balances held at Federal Reserve Banks) with each other overnight. The rate that the borrowing institution pays to the lending institution is determined between the two banks; the weighted average rate for all of these types of negotiations is called the effective federal funds rate. The effective federal funds rate is determined by the market but is influenced by the Federal Reserve through open market operations to reach the federal funds rate target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets eight times a year to determine the federal funds target rate; the target rate transitioned to a target range with an upper and lower limit in December 2008. The real gross domestic product is calculated as the seasonally adjusted quarterly rate of change in the gross domestic product based on chained 2009 dollars. The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a seasonally adjusted percentage of the labor force. The inflation rate reflects the monthly change in the Consumer Price Index of products excluding food and energy.

Acknowledgements

The interest rate data was published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis' economic data portal. The gross domestic product data was provided by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis; the unemployment and consumer price index data was provided by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Inspiration

How does economic growth, unemployment, and inflation impact the Federal Reserve's interest rates decisions? How has the interest rate policy changed over time? Can you predict the Federal Reserve's next decision? Will the target range set in March 2017 be increased, decreased, or remain the same?

Replication files for "Job-to-Job Mobility and Inflation" Authors: Renato Faccini and Leonardo Melosi Review of Economics and Statistics Date: February 2, 2023 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORDERS OF TOPICS .Section 1. We explain the code to replicate all the figures in the paper (except Figure 6) .Section 2. We explain how Figure 6 is constructed .Section 3. We explain how the data are constructed SECTION 1 Replication_Main.m is used to reproduce all the figures of the paper except Figure 6. All the primitive variables are defined in the code and all the steps are commented in code to facilitate the replication of our results. Replication_Main.m, should be run in Matlab. The authors tested it on a DELL XPS 15 7590 laptop wih the follwoing characteristics: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Processor Intel(R) Core(TM) i9-9980HK CPU @ 2.40GHz 2.40 GHz Installed RAM 64.0 GB System type 64-bit operating system, x64-based processor -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It took 2 minutes and 57 seconds for this machine to construct Figures 1, 2, 3, 4a, 4b, 5, 7a, and 7b. The following version of Matlab and Matlab toolboxes has been used for the test: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MATLAB Version: 9.7.0.1190202 (R2019b) MATLAB License Number: 363305 Operating System: Microsoft Windows 10 Enterprise Version 10.0 (Build 19045) Java Version: Java 1.8.0_202-b08 with Oracle Corporation Java HotSpot(TM) 64-Bit Server VM mixed mode -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MATLAB Version 9.7 (R2019b) Financial Toolbox Version 5.14 (R2019b) Optimization Toolbox Version 8.4 (R2019b) Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox Version 11.6 (R2019b) Symbolic Math Toolbox Version 8.4 (R2019b) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The replication code uses auxiliary files and save the pictures in various subfolders: \JL_models: It contains the equations describing the model including the observation equations and routine used to solve the model. To do so, the routine in this folder calls other routines located in some fo the subfolders below. \gensystoama: It contains a set of codes that allow us to solve linear rational expectations models. We use the AMA solver. More information are provided in the file AMASOLVE.m. The codes in this subfolder have been developed by Alejandro Justiniano. \filters: it contains the Kalman filter augmented with a routine to make sure that the zero lower bound constraint for the nominal interest rate is satisfied in every period in our sample. \SteadyStateSolver: It contains a set of routines that are used to solved the steady state of the model numerically. \NLEquations: It contains some of the equations of the model that are log-linearized using the symbolic toolbox of matlab. \NberDates: It contains a set of routines that allows to add shaded area to graphs to denote NBER recessions. \Graphics: It contains useful codes enabling features to construct some of the graphs in the paper. \Data: it contains the data set used in the paper. \Params: It contains a spreadsheet with the values attributes to the model parameters. \VAR_Estimation: It contains the forecasts implied by the Bayesian VAR model of Section 2. The output of Replication_Main.m are the figures of the paper that are stored in the subfolder \Figures SECTION 2 The Excel file "Figure-6.xlsx" is used to create the charts in Figure 6. All three panels of the charts (A, B, and C) plot a measure of unexpected wage inflation against the unemployment rate, then fits separate linear regressions for the periods 1960-1985,1986-2007, and 2008-2009. Unexpected wage inflation is given by the difference between wage growth and a measure of expected wage growth. In all three panels, the unemployment rate used is the civilian unemployment rate (UNRATE), seasonally adjusted, from the BLS. The sheet "Panel A" uses quarterly manufacturing sector average hourly earnings growth data, seasonally adjusted (CES3000000008), from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report as the measure of wage inflation. The unexpected wage inflation is given by the difference between earnings growth at time t and the average of earnings growth across the previous four months. Growth rates are annualized quarterly values. The sheet "Panel B" uses quarterly Nonfarm Business Sector Compensation Per Hour, seasonally adjusted (COMPNFB), from the BLS Productivity and Costs report as its measure of wage inflation. As in Panel A, expected wage inflation is given by the... Visit https://dataone.org/datasets/sha256%3A44c88fe82380bfff217866cac93f85483766eb9364f66cfa03f1ebdaa0408335 for complete metadata about this dataset.

U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/1b40e0ca-7d2e-4fbc-8cfd-df3f09e4fdb8">

To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

https:/...

The data sheet of our study, based on Corruption, Suicide, Inflation, Unemployment, and Economic growth of the American region.

Monthly and long-term Norway Unemployment data: historical series and analyst forecasts curated by FocusEconomics.

Unemployment Rate in Germany remained unchanged at 6.30 percent in November. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Germany Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data was reported at 2.400 % in Jul 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.600 % for Jun 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data is updated monthly, averaging 2.900 % from Feb 1979 (Median) to Jul 2018, with 382 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.700 % in Feb 1980 and a record low of 2.300 % in Dec 2016. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?' and 'By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up or down, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?'

Unemployment Rate in Japan remained unchanged at 2.60 percent in October. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Japan Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

This paper derives optimal monetary policy rules in setups where certainty equivalence does not hold because either central bank preferences are not quadratic, and/or the aggregate supply relation is nonlinear. Analytical results show that these features lead to sign and size asymmetries, and nonlinearities in the policy rule. Reduced-form estimates indicate that US monetary policy can be characterized by a nonlinear policy rule after 1983, but not before 1979. This finding is consistent with the view that the Fed's inflation preferences during the Volcker-Greenspan regime differ considerably from the ones during the Burns-Miller regime. The file MONTHLY.TXT contains monthly data between 1970.1 and 2000.12 arranged in five columns; the file QUARTERLY.TXT contains quarterly data between 1960.1 and 2000.4 arranged in five columns. The headings OBS, FFRATE, INF, IPI, and UNRATE denote, respectively, the date, Federal Funds rate, CPI inflation rate, Index of Industrial Production, and Unemployment Rate. Additional details can be found the section entitled 3.1 DATA of the paper.

This dataset provides a comprehensive collection of monthly U.S. macroeconomic indicators spanning January 2000 to December 2024.

It was designed specifically for machine learning-based inflation forecasting and includes key economic factors historically associated with inflation trends:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI) & Inflation Rate
• Unemployment Rate
• Federal Funds Rate
• M2 Money Supply
• Crude Oil Prices (WTI)
• Producer Price Index (PPI)

Primary Goal: Build predictive models to forecast year-over-year inflation rates

Possible Use Cases:

• Forecasting inflation using machine learning models like XGBoost, Random Forest, or LSTM.
• Studying relationships between macroeconomic factors and inflationary pressure.
• Comparing classical econometric approaches with modern AI-based forecasting techniques.

Structure: Each CSV contains a Date column and corresponding metric values, making it easy to merge and align data for analysis.

License: MIT License – free to use for research and educational purposes.

Unemployment rate, participation rate, and employment rate by educational attainment, gender and age group, annual.

Context

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a unit of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics and serves as a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System. The BLS is a governmental statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor representatives. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics

Content

Bureau of Labor Statistics including CPI (inflation), employment, unemployment, and wage data.

Update Frequency: Monthly

Querying BigQuery Tables

Fork this kernel to get started.

Acknowledgements

https://bigquery.cloud.google.com/dataset/bigquery-public-data:bls

https://cloud.google.com/bigquery/public-data/bureau-of-labor-statistics

Dataset Source: http://www.bls.gov/data/

This dataset is publicly available for anyone to use under the following terms provided by the Dataset Source - http://www.data.gov/privacy-policy#data_policy - and is provided "AS IS" without any warranty, express or implied, from Google. Google disclaims all liability for any damages, direct or indirect, resulting from the use of the dataset.

Banner Photo by Clark Young from Unsplash.

Inspiration

What is the average annual inflation across all US Cities? What was the monthly unemployment rate (U3) in 2016? What are the top 10 hourly-waged types of work in Pittsburgh, PA for 2016?

Unemployment Rate in India remained unchanged at 5.20 percent in October. This dataset provides - India Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.