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BackgroundDespite the sharp decline in global under-5 deaths since 1990, uneven progress has been achieved across and within countries. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for child mortality were met only by a few countries. Valid concerns exist as to whether the region would meet new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for under-5 mortality. We therefore examine further sources of variation by assessing age patterns, trends, and forecasts of mortality rates.Methods and findingsData came from 106 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) with full birth histories from 31 SSA countries from 1990 to 2017 (a total of 524 country-years of data). We assessed the distribution of age at death through the following new demographic analyses. First, we used a direct method and full birth histories to estimate under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) on a monthly basis. Second, we smoothed raw estimates of death rates by age and time by using a two-dimensional P-Spline approach. Third, a variant of the Lee–Carter (LC) model, designed for populations with limited data, was used to fit and forecast age profiles of mortality. We used mortality estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) to adjust, validate, and minimize the risk of bias in survival, truncation, and recall in mortality estimation. Our mortality model revealed substantive declines of death rates at every age in most countries but with notable differences in the age patterns over time. U5MRs declined from 3.3% (annual rate of reduction [ARR] 0.1%) in Lesotho to 76.4% (ARR 5.2%) in Malawi, and the pace of decline was faster on average (ARR 3.2%) than that observed for infant (IMRs) (ARR 2.7%) and neonatal (NMRs) (ARR 2.0%) mortality rates. We predict that 5 countries (Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda) are on track to achieve the under-5 sustainable development target by 2030 (25 deaths per 1,000 live births), but only Rwanda and Tanzania would meet both the neonatal (12 deaths per 1,000 live births) and under-5 targets simultaneously. Our predicted NMRs and U5MRs were in line with those estimated by the UN IGME by 2030 and 2050 (they overlapped in 27/31 countries for NMRs and 22 for U5MRs) and by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) by 2030 (26/31 and 23/31, respectively). This study has a number of limitations, including poor data quality issues that reflected bias in the report of births and deaths, preventing reliable estimates and predictions from a few countries.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this study is the first to combine full birth histories and mortality estimates from external reliable sources to model age patterns of under-5 mortality across time in SSA. We demonstrate that countries with a rapid pace of mortality reduction (ARR ≥ 3.2%) across ages would be more likely to achieve the SDG mortality targets. However, the lower pace of neonatal mortality reduction would prevent most countries from achieving those targets: 2 countries would reach them by 2030, 13 between 2030 and 2050, and 13 after 2050.
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United States US: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data was reported at 97.543 % in 2008. This records an increase from the previous number of 96.305 % for 2007. United States US: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data is updated yearly, averaging 96.603 % from Dec 2006 (Median) to 2008, with 3 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 97.543 % in 2008 and a record low of 96.305 % in 2007. United States US: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.World Bank.WDI: Health Statistics. Completeness of total death reporting is the number of total deaths reported by national statistics authorities to the United Nations Statistics Division's Demography Yearbook divided by the number of total deaths estimated by the United Nations Population Division.; ; The United Nations Statistics Division's Population and Vital Statistics Report and the United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects.; Weighted average;
This statistic shows the 20 countries* with the highest infant mortality rate in 2024. An estimated 101.3 infants per 1,000 live births died in the first year of life in Afghanistan in 2024. Infant and child mortality Infant mortality usually refers to the death of children younger than one year. Child mortality, which is often used synonymously with infant mortality, is the death of children younger than five. Among the main causes are pneumonia, diarrhea – which causes dehydration – and infections in newborns, with malnutrition also posing a severe problem. As can be seen above, most countries with a high infant mortality rate are developing countries or emerging countries, most of which are located in Africa. Good health care and hygiene are crucial in reducing child mortality; among the countries with the lowest infant mortality rate are exclusively developed countries, whose inhabitants usually have access to clean water and comprehensive health care. Access to vaccinations, antibiotics and a balanced nutrition also help reducing child mortality in these regions. In some countries, infants are killed if they turn out to be of a certain gender. India, for example, is known as a country where a lot of girls are aborted or killed right after birth, as they are considered to be too expensive for poorer families, who traditionally have to pay a costly dowry on the girl’s wedding day. Interestingly, the global mortality rate among boys is higher than that for girls, which could be due to the fact that more male infants are actually born than female ones. Other theories include a stronger immune system in girls, or more premature births among boys.
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Chad TD: Mortality Rate: Under-5: Female: per 1000 Live Births data was reported at 94.800 Ratio in 2023. This records a decrease from the previous number of 97.700 Ratio for 2022. Chad TD: Mortality Rate: Under-5: Female: per 1000 Live Births data is updated yearly, averaging 197.250 Ratio from Dec 1960 (Median) to 2023, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 256.700 Ratio in 1960 and a record low of 94.800 Ratio in 2023. Chad TD: Mortality Rate: Under-5: Female: per 1000 Live Births data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Chad – Table TD.World Bank.WDI: Social: Health Statistics. Under-five mortality rate, female is the probability per 1,000 that a newborn female baby will die before reaching age five, if subject to female age-specific mortality rates of the specified year.;Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN DESA Population Division) at www.childmortality.org.;Weighted average;Given that data on the incidence and prevalence of diseases are frequently unavailable, mortality rates are often used to identify vulnerable populations. Moreover, they are among the indicators most frequently used to compare socioeconomic development across countries. Under-five mortality rates are higher for boys than for girls in countries in which parental gender preferences are insignificant. Under-five mortality captures the effect of gender discrimination better than infant mortality does, as malnutrition and medical interventions have more significant impacts to this age group. Where female under-five mortality is higher, girls are likely to have less access to resources than boys. Aggregate data for LIC, UMC, LMC, HIC are computed based on the groupings for the World Bank fiscal year in which the data was released by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. This is a sex-disaggregated indicator for Sustainable Development Goal 3.2.1 [https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/].
Users can access data related to international women’s health as well as data on population and families, education, work, power and decision making, violence against women, poverty, and environment. Background World’s Women Reports are prepared by the Statistics Division of the United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). Reports are produced in five year intervals and began in 1990. A major theme of the reports is comparing women’s situation globally to that of men in a variety of fields. Health data is available related to life expectancy, cause of death, chronic disease, HIV/AIDS, prenatal care, maternal morbidity, reproductive health, contraceptive use, induced abortion, mortality of children under 5, and immunization. User functionality Users can download full text or specific chapter versions of the reports in color and black and white. A limited number of graphs are available for download directly from the website. Topics include obesity and underweight children. Data Notes The report and data tables are available for download in PDF format. The next report is scheduled to be released in 2015. The most recent report was released in 2010.
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United States US: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data was reported at 97.585 % in 2008. This records a decrease from the previous number of 100.000 % for 2007. United States US: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data is updated yearly, averaging 98.108 % from Dec 2006 (Median) to 2008, with 3 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in 2007 and a record low of 97.585 % in 2008. United States US: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.World Bank.WDI: Health Statistics. Completeness of infant death reporting is the number of infant deaths reported by national statistics authorities to the United Nations Statistics Division's Demography Yearbook divided by the number of infant deaths estimated by the United Nations Population Division.; ; The United Nations Statistics Division's Population and Vital Statistics Report and the United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects.; ;
Maternal mortality rates can vary significantly around the world. For example, in 2022, Estonia had a maternal mortality rate of zero per 100,000 live births, while Mexico reported a rate of 38 deaths per 100,000 live births. However, the regions with the highest number of maternal deaths are Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia, with differences between countries and regions often reflecting inequalities in health care services and access. Most causes of maternal mortality are preventable and treatable with the most common causes including severe bleeding, infections, complications during delivery, high blood pressure during pregnancy, and unsafe abortion. Maternal mortality in the United States In 2022, there were a total of 817 maternal deaths in the United States. Women aged 25 to 39 years accounted for 578 of these deaths, however, rates of maternal mortality are much higher among women aged 40 years and older. In 2022, the rate of maternal mortality among women aged 40 years and older in the U.S. was 87 per 100,000 live births, compared to a rate of 21 among women aged 25 to 39 years. The rate of maternal mortality in the U.S. has risen in recent years among all age groups. Differences in maternal mortality in the U.S. by race/ethnicity Sadly, there are great disparities in maternal mortality in the United States among different races and ethnicities. In 2022, the rate of maternal mortality among non-Hispanic white women was about 19 per 100,000 live births, while non-Hispanic Black women died from maternal causes at a rate of almost 50 per 100,000 live births. Rates of maternal mortality have risen for white and Hispanic women in recent years, but Black women have by far seen the largest increase in maternal mortality. In 2022, around 253 Black women died from maternal causes in the United States.
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Data calculated for State of the Tropics 2014 report from Maternal Mortality Estimate Inter-Agency Group (MMEIG), comprising the World Health Organisation, United Nations Population Fund, the United Nations Population Division, and the World Bank. Global Health Obervatory, WHO. 'maternal mortality' http://www.who.int/gho/maternal_health/mortality/maternal/en/index.html
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Ukraine UA: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data was reported at 92.968 % in 2010. This records a decrease from the previous number of 98.742 % for 2008. Ukraine UA: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data is updated yearly, averaging 98.742 % from Dec 2007 (Median) to 2010, with 3 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 99.372 % in 2007 and a record low of 92.968 % in 2010. Ukraine UA: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Ukraine – Table UA.World Bank.WDI: Health Statistics. Completeness of total death reporting is the number of total deaths reported by national statistics authorities to the United Nations Statistics Division's Demography Yearbook divided by the number of total deaths estimated by the United Nations Population Division.; ; The United Nations Statistics Division's Population and Vital Statistics Report and the United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects.; Weighted average;
Series Name: Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1 000 live births)Series Code: SH_DYN_IMRTRelease Version: 2020.Q2.G.03 This dataset is the part of the Global SDG Indicator Database compiled through the UN System in preparation for the Secretary-General's annual report on Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.Indicator 3.2.1: Under-5 mortality rateTarget 3.2: By 2030, end preventable deaths of newborns and children under 5 years of age, with all countries aiming to reduce neonatal mortality to at least as low as 12 per 1,000 live births and under-5 mortality to at least as low as 25 per 1,000 live birthsGoal 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all agesFor more information on the compilation methodology of this dataset, see https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/
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Burkina Faso BF: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data was reported at 90.039 % in 2008. Burkina Faso BF: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data is updated yearly, averaging 90.039 % from Dec 2008 (Median) to 2008, with 1 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 90.039 % in 2008 and a record low of 90.039 % in 2008. Burkina Faso BF: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Burkina Faso – Table BF.World Bank.WDI: Social: Health Statistics. Completeness of total death reporting is the number of total deaths reported by national statistics authorities to the United Nations Statistics Division's Demography Yearbook divided by the number of total deaths estimated by the United Nations Population Division.; ; The United Nations Statistics Division's Population and Vital Statistics Report and the United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects.; Weighted average;
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Luxembourg LU: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data was reported at 43.478 % in 2008. Luxembourg LU: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data is updated yearly, averaging 43.478 % from Dec 2008 (Median) to 2008, with 1 observations. Luxembourg LU: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Luxembourg – Table LU.World Bank.WDI: Health Statistics. Completeness of infant death reporting is the number of infant deaths reported by national statistics authorities to the United Nations Statistics Division's Demography Yearbook divided by the number of infant deaths estimated by the United Nations Population Division.; ; The United Nations Statistics Division's Population and Vital Statistics Report and the United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects.; ;
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Germany DE: Mortality Rate: Under-5: per 1000 Live Births data was reported at 3.700 Ratio in 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.700 Ratio for 2022. Germany DE: Mortality Rate: Under-5: per 1000 Live Births data is updated yearly, averaging 6.350 Ratio from Dec 1968 (Median) to 2023, with 56 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 27.100 Ratio in 1968 and a record low of 3.700 Ratio in 2023. Germany DE: Mortality Rate: Under-5: per 1000 Live Births data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Germany – Table DE.World Bank.WDI: Social: Health Statistics. Under-five mortality rate is the probability per 1,000 that a newborn baby will die before reaching age five, if subject to age-specific mortality rates of the specified year.;Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN DESA Population Division) at www.childmortality.org.;Weighted average;Given that data on the incidence and prevalence of diseases are frequently unavailable, mortality rates are often used to identify vulnerable populations. Moreover, they are among the indicators most frequently used to compare socioeconomic development across countries. Under-five mortality rates are higher for boys than for girls in countries in which parental gender preferences are insignificant. Under-five mortality captures the effect of gender discrimination better than infant mortality does, as malnutrition and medical interventions have more significant impacts to this age group. Where female under-five mortality is higher, girls are likely to have less access to resources than boys. Aggregate data for LIC, UMC, LMC, HIC are computed based on the groupings for the World Bank fiscal year in which the data was released by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation. This is the Sustainable Development Goal indicator 3.2.1[https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/].
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United States US: Mortality Rate: Infant: Female: per 1000 Live Births data was reported at 5.000 Ratio in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 5.200 Ratio for 2015. United States US: Mortality Rate: Infant: Female: per 1000 Live Births data is updated yearly, averaging 5.700 Ratio from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2017, with 5 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 8.300 Ratio in 1990 and a record low of 5.000 Ratio in 2017. United States US: Mortality Rate: Infant: Female: per 1000 Live Births data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.World Bank: Health Statistics. Infant mortality rate, female is the number of female infants dying before reaching one year of age, per 1,000 female live births in a given year.; ; Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN DESA Population Division) at www.childmortality.org.; Weighted average; Given that data on the incidence and prevalence of diseases are frequently unavailable, mortality rates are often used to identify vulnerable populations. Moreover, they are among the indicators most frequently used to compare socioeconomic development across countries. Under-five mortality rates are higher for boys than for girls in countries in which parental gender preferences are insignificant. Under-five mortality captures the effect of gender discrimination better than infant mortality does, as malnutrition and medical interventions have more significant impacts to this age group. Where female under-five mortality is higher, girls are likely to have less access to resources than boys.
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United States US: Mortality Rate: Under-5: Male: per 1000 Live Births data was reported at 7.200 Ratio in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 7.400 Ratio for 2015. United States US: Mortality Rate: Under-5: Male: per 1000 Live Births data is updated yearly, averaging 8.000 Ratio from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2017, with 5 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 12.500 Ratio in 1990 and a record low of 7.200 Ratio in 2017. United States US: Mortality Rate: Under-5: Male: per 1000 Live Births data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.World Bank: Health Statistics. Under-five mortality rate, male is the probability per 1,000 that a newborn male baby will die before reaching age five, if subject to male age-specific mortality rates of the specified year.; ; Estimates Developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN DESA Population Division) at www.childmortality.org.; Weighted average; Given that data on the incidence and prevalence of diseases are frequently unavailable, mortality rates are often used to identify vulnerable populations. Moreover, they are among the indicators most frequently used to compare socioeconomic development across countries. Under-five mortality rates are higher for boys than for girls in countries in which parental gender preferences are insignificant. Under-five mortality captures the effect of gender discrimination better than infant mortality does, as malnutrition and medical interventions have more significant impacts to this age group. Where female under-five mortality is higher, girls are likely to have less access to resources than boys.
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Poland PL: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data was reported at 88.549 % in 2010. This records a decrease from the previous number of 100.000 % for 2009. Poland PL: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data is updated yearly, averaging 99.529 % from Dec 2007 (Median) to 2010, with 3 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in 2009 and a record low of 88.549 % in 2010. Poland PL: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Poland – Table PL.World Bank.WDI: Health Statistics. Completeness of infant death reporting is the number of infant deaths reported by national statistics authorities to the United Nations Statistics Division's Demography Yearbook divided by the number of infant deaths estimated by the United Nations Population Division.; ; The United Nations Statistics Division's Population and Vital Statistics Report and the United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects.; ;
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Sweden SE: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data was reported at 98.297 % in 2010. This records a decrease from the previous number of 98.774 % for 2008. Sweden SE: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data is updated yearly, averaging 98.774 % from Dec 2007 (Median) to 2010, with 3 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 98.784 % in 2007 and a record low of 98.297 % in 2010. Sweden SE: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Sweden – Table SE.World Bank.WDI: Health Statistics. Completeness of total death reporting is the number of total deaths reported by national statistics authorities to the United Nations Statistics Division's Demography Yearbook divided by the number of total deaths estimated by the United Nations Population Division.; ; The United Nations Statistics Division's Population and Vital Statistics Report and the United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects.; Weighted average;
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French Polynesia PF: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data was reported at 62.162 % in 2008. French Polynesia PF: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data is updated yearly, averaging 62.162 % from Dec 2008 (Median) to 2008, with 1 observations. French Polynesia PF: Completeness of Infant Death Reporting data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s French Polynesia – Table PF.World Bank.WDI: Health Statistics. Completeness of infant death reporting is the number of infant deaths reported by national statistics authorities to the United Nations Statistics Division's Demography Yearbook divided by the number of infant deaths estimated by the United Nations Population Division.; ; The United Nations Statistics Division's Population and Vital Statistics Report and the United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects.; ;
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United States US: Mortality Rate: Infant: Male: per 1000 Live Births data was reported at 6.000 Ratio in 2017. This records a decrease from the previous number of 6.200 Ratio for 2015. United States US: Mortality Rate: Infant: Male: per 1000 Live Births data is updated yearly, averaging 6.800 Ratio from Dec 1990 (Median) to 2017, with 5 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10.400 Ratio in 1990 and a record low of 6.000 Ratio in 2017. United States US: Mortality Rate: Infant: Male: per 1000 Live Births data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.World Bank.WDI: Health Statistics. Infant mortality rate, male is the number of male infants dying before reaching one year of age, per 1,000 male live births in a given year.; ; Estimates developed by the UN Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UNICEF, WHO, World Bank, UN DESA Population Division) at www.childmortality.org.; Weighted average; Given that data on the incidence and prevalence of diseases are frequently unavailable, mortality rates are often used to identify vulnerable populations. Moreover, they are among the indicators most frequently used to compare socioeconomic development across countries. Under-five mortality rates are higher for boys than for girls in countries in which parental gender preferences are insignificant. Under-five mortality captures the effect of gender discrimination better than infant mortality does, as malnutrition and medical interventions have more significant impacts to this age group. Where female under-five mortality is higher, girls are likely to have less access to resources than boys.
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Peru PE: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data was reported at 59.140 % in 2008. Peru PE: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data is updated yearly, averaging 59.140 % from Dec 2008 (Median) to 2008, with 1 observations. Peru PE: Completeness of Total Death Reporting data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by World Bank. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Peru – Table PE.World Bank: Health Statistics. Completeness of total death reporting is the number of total deaths reported by national statistics authorities to the United Nations Statistics Division's Demography Yearbook divided by the number of total deaths estimated by the United Nations Population Division.; ; The United Nations Statistics Division's Population and Vital Statistics Report and the United Nations Population Division's World Population Prospects.; Weighted Average;
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BackgroundDespite the sharp decline in global under-5 deaths since 1990, uneven progress has been achieved across and within countries. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) for child mortality were met only by a few countries. Valid concerns exist as to whether the region would meet new Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for under-5 mortality. We therefore examine further sources of variation by assessing age patterns, trends, and forecasts of mortality rates.Methods and findingsData came from 106 nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) with full birth histories from 31 SSA countries from 1990 to 2017 (a total of 524 country-years of data). We assessed the distribution of age at death through the following new demographic analyses. First, we used a direct method and full birth histories to estimate under-5 mortality rates (U5MRs) on a monthly basis. Second, we smoothed raw estimates of death rates by age and time by using a two-dimensional P-Spline approach. Third, a variant of the Lee–Carter (LC) model, designed for populations with limited data, was used to fit and forecast age profiles of mortality. We used mortality estimates from the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME) to adjust, validate, and minimize the risk of bias in survival, truncation, and recall in mortality estimation. Our mortality model revealed substantive declines of death rates at every age in most countries but with notable differences in the age patterns over time. U5MRs declined from 3.3% (annual rate of reduction [ARR] 0.1%) in Lesotho to 76.4% (ARR 5.2%) in Malawi, and the pace of decline was faster on average (ARR 3.2%) than that observed for infant (IMRs) (ARR 2.7%) and neonatal (NMRs) (ARR 2.0%) mortality rates. We predict that 5 countries (Kenya, Rwanda, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda) are on track to achieve the under-5 sustainable development target by 2030 (25 deaths per 1,000 live births), but only Rwanda and Tanzania would meet both the neonatal (12 deaths per 1,000 live births) and under-5 targets simultaneously. Our predicted NMRs and U5MRs were in line with those estimated by the UN IGME by 2030 and 2050 (they overlapped in 27/31 countries for NMRs and 22 for U5MRs) and by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) by 2030 (26/31 and 23/31, respectively). This study has a number of limitations, including poor data quality issues that reflected bias in the report of births and deaths, preventing reliable estimates and predictions from a few countries.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this study is the first to combine full birth histories and mortality estimates from external reliable sources to model age patterns of under-5 mortality across time in SSA. We demonstrate that countries with a rapid pace of mortality reduction (ARR ≥ 3.2%) across ages would be more likely to achieve the SDG mortality targets. However, the lower pace of neonatal mortality reduction would prevent most countries from achieving those targets: 2 countries would reach them by 2030, 13 between 2030 and 2050, and 13 after 2050.