The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Sep 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data was reported at 6.800 % Point in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.300 % Point for Sep 2024. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 7.900 % Point from Dec 1967 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 229 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % Point in Jun 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % Point in Sep 2020. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S094: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index.

The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The gross domestic product of the United States in 2024 amounted to around 29.18 trillion U.S. dollars. The United States and the economy The United States’ economy is by far the largest in the world; a status which can be determined by several key factors, one being gross domestic product: A look at the GDP of the main industrialized and emerging countries shows a significant difference between US GDP and the GDP of China, the runner-up in the ranking, as well as the followers Japan, Germany and France. Interestingly, it is assumed that China will have surpassed the States in terms of GDP by 2030, but for now, the United States is among the leading countries in almost all other relevant rankings and statistics, trade and employment for example. See the U.S. GDP growth rate here. Just like in other countries, the American economy suffered a severe setback when the economic crisis occurred in 2008. The American economy entered a recession caused by the collapsing real estate market and increasing unemployment. Despite this, the standard of living is considered quite high; life expectancy in the United States has been continually increasing slightly over the past decade, the unemployment rate in the United States has been steadily recovering and decreasing since the crisis, and the Big Mac Index, which represents the global prices for a Big Mac, a popular indicator for the purchasing power of an economy, shows that the United States’ purchasing power in particular is only slightly lower than that of the euro area.

Dataset Overview:

This dataset offers a comprehensive time series analysis of three vital economic indicators in the United States: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Unemployment Rate, and Consumer Price Index (CPI). Spanning from January 1974 to January 2024, this dataset provides valuable insights into the U.S. economy over the past five decades, capturing periods of growth, recession, and inflation.

Contents:

• GDP Data (gdp_data.csv): Quarterly data on the Gross Domestic Product, measured in billions of dollars, highlighting economic performance and trends over the years.
• Unemployment Data (unemployment_data.csv): Monthly data on the unemployment rate, showing fluctuations in labor market conditions and workforce participation over time.
• CPI Data (cpi_data.csv): Monthly data on the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), capturing changes in the price level of consumer goods and services and reflecting inflationary trends.

Usage and Applications:

• Economic History Analysis: Examine long-term trends and cycles in U.S. economic performance, including periods of recession and expansion.
• Predictive Modeling: Develop models to forecast future economic conditions based on historical data patterns.
• Policy Impact Studies: Analyze the effects of fiscal and monetary policies on GDP, unemployment, and inflation over time.

Data Sources:

The dataset is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. FRED is a comprehensive resource for economic data, widely used by researchers, analysts, and policymakers.

How to Use the Dataset:

• Exploration: Utilize tools like Pandas and Matplotlib in Python to explore and visualize the dataset.
• Time Series Analysis: Apply techniques such as ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and seasonal decomposition to analyze trends and seasonality.
• Comparative Studies: Compare economic performance across different decades and investigate interactions between GDP, unemployment, and CPI.

Note: This dataset is intended for educational and research purposes. Users are encouraged to cite the original data source (FRED) when using this dataset in publications or presentations.

View monthly updates and historical trends for US Recession Probability. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Track economic data…

United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in July of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator reached a record high of 1.00000 in April of 1969 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1968. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

In 2022, the regional gross domestic product (GDP) in Latin America and the Caribbean grew more than four percent compared to the previous year. In 2020, the GDP of all the subregion shrunk, with Central America being the worst hit by the economic crisis spawned from the coronavirus pandemic, with a real GDP decrease of seven percent. This was the first time that this part of Latin America experiences a GDP fall since at least 2016. Forecasts for 2023 are fairly optimistic as well.

Haiti is expected to experience the worst economic recession in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2024. Haiti's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 is forecast to be 3 percent lower than the value registered in 2023, based on constant prices. Aside from Argentina, Haiti, and Puerto Rico, most economies in the region were likely to experience economic growth in 2024, most notably, Guyana.

Panic Room Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the global panic room market size reached USD 4.2 billion in 2024, reflecting a steady surge in demand for advanced security solutions across diverse sectors. The market is projected to expand at a robust CAGR of 6.8% during the forecast period, reaching an estimated USD 7.8 billion by 2033. This growth trajectory is primarily fueled by rising security concerns, increasing incidences of home invasions and organized crime, and the growing awareness of personal safety among high-net-worth individuals and institutions. As per our latest research, the market is witnessing a paradigm shift towards technologically integrated panic rooms, offering enhanced protection and seamless connectivity.

The surge in demand for panic rooms globally is underpinned by a confluence of socio-economic and technological factors. The proliferation of high-profile crimes, including burglaries, kidnappings, and terrorist threats, has heightened the need for secure, fortified spaces in both residential and commercial settings. This trend is further accentuated by the increasing number of affluent individuals and celebrities seeking advanced personal security measures. In addition, the growing adoption of smart home technologies has enabled the integration of panic rooms with sophisticated surveillance, access control, and communication systems, enhancing their efficacy and appeal. The market is also benefiting from rising consumer awareness, driven by media coverage and high-profile incidents, which has normalized the concept of panic rooms beyond elite circles and into broader residential and commercial sectors.

Technological advancements are playing a pivotal role in shaping the evolution of the panic room market. Manufacturers are leveraging innovations in materials science, construction techniques, and digital security to develop panic rooms that are not only more robust but also more discreet and user-friendly. The integration of biometric access, real-time monitoring, and remote control capabilities has transformed panic rooms from simple reinforced spaces into intelligent safe havens. Furthermore, the advent of modular and custom-built solutions has democratized access to panic rooms, allowing a wider range of customers to tailor installations to their specific needs and budget constraints. This has resulted in a diversification of product offerings, catering to various market segments, from standard to luxury and modular panic rooms.

Another significant growth factor is the increasing emphasis on security infrastructure within commercial, industrial, and government sectors. Corporate offices, financial institutions, critical infrastructure facilities, and government buildings are increasingly incorporating panic rooms as part of comprehensive security strategies. The rise in workplace violence, active shooter incidents, and geopolitical uncertainties has prompted organizations to prioritize employee and asset protection. In parallel, the construction industry’s shift towards retrofit and new construction installations is driving market expansion, as property developers and owners recognize the value addition and peace of mind offered by panic rooms. The confluence of these factors is expected to sustain the market’s upward momentum throughout the forecast period.

From a regional perspective, North America continues to dominate the panic room market, accounting for the largest share in 2024, followed by Europe and Asia Pacific. The United States, in particular, exhibits a high adoption rate, driven by a combination of affluent households, rising crime rates, and a culture of proactive security. Europe is witnessing steady growth, fueled by increasing security concerns in urban centers and the proliferation of luxury real estate. Meanwhile, Asia Pacific is emerging as a lucrative market, propelled by rapid urbanization, rising disposable incomes, and growing awareness of personal safety. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa are also experiencing increased demand, albeit from a lower base, as security threats and economic development drive investments in advanced protection solutions.

Panic Bar Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the Panic Bar market size was valued at $2.1 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $3.8 billion by 2033, expanding at a robust CAGR of 6.7% during the forecast period from 2024 to 2033. The primary growth driver for the global panic bar market is the increasing implementation of stringent safety and building codes across commercial, industrial, and institutional sectors. As organizations and governments worldwide emphasize occupant safety and emergency preparedness, the adoption of panic bars—critical for rapid egress during emergencies—has witnessed significant momentum. The growing construction of commercial and institutional buildings, coupled with rising awareness about fire safety, further propels the demand for advanced and reliable panic bar solutions.

Regional Outlook

North America currently commands the largest share of the global panic bar market, accounting for approximately 38% of total market revenue in 2024. This dominance is attributed to the region’s mature construction sector, rigorous enforcement of fire safety regulations, and high adoption of advanced security solutions in commercial and institutional buildings. The United States, in particular, has been at the forefront, driven by frequent updates to building codes, strong insurance mandates, and a proactive approach to facility management. Additionally, the presence of leading panic bar manufacturers and a robust distribution network have further solidified North America’s leadership in the global landscape.

The Asia Pacific region is poised to be the fastest-growing market, projected to register a CAGR exceeding 8.1% through 2033. Rapid urbanization, increasing construction activities, and rising investments in infrastructure development, especially in China, India, and Southeast Asia, are fueling this growth trajectory. Governments across the region are tightening building safety codes and investing in modernizing public infrastructure, which is translating into heightened demand for panic bars. Foreign direct investments and the expansion of global players into Asia Pacific markets are also contributing to the accelerated market growth, as local end-users seek reliable and compliant emergency exit solutions.

Emerging economies in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa are gradually adopting panic bar systems, albeit at a relatively slower pace due to economic constraints and varying regulatory landscapes. In these regions, localized demand is primarily driven by multinational corporations, hospitality chains, and large-scale public infrastructure projects that require compliance with international safety standards. However, challenges such as limited awareness, insufficient enforcement of building codes, and price sensitivity among end-users can impede market penetration. Policy reforms and capacity-building initiatives by governments and industry associations are expected to gradually bridge these adoption gaps, creating new opportunities for market participants.

Report Scope

According to a survey conducted in August 2024, over ** percent of consumers in the United States believed both inflation and a pending recession would impact their Halloween spending plans. About the same number of people said these economic changes would not influence their spending.

In this Economic Commentary , we compare characteristics of the 2000–2006 house-price boom that preceded the Great Recession to the house-price boom that began in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. These two episodes of high house-price growth have important differences, including the behavior of rental rates, the dynamics of housing supply and demand, and the state of the mortgage market. The absence of changes in fundamentals during the 2000s is consistent with the literature emphasizing house-price beliefs during this prior episode. In contrast to during the 2000s boom, changes in fundamentals (including rent and demand growth) played a more dominant role in the 2020s house-price boom.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately **** trillion U.S. dollars by October 29, 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic—both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S.—showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by August 2025, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2024, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

The unemployment rate in fiscal year 2204 rose to 3.9 percent. The unemployment rate of the United States which has been steadily decreasing since the 2008 financial crisis, spiked to 8.1 percent in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The annual unemployment rate of the U.S. since 1990 can be found here. Falling unemployment The unemployment rate, or the part of the U.S. labor force that is without a job, fell again in 2022 after peaking at 8.1 percent in 2020 - a rate that has not been seen since the years following the 2008 financial crisis. The financial crash caused unemployment in the U.S. to soar from 4.6 percent in 2007 to 9.6 percent in 2010. Since 2010, the unemployment rate had been steadily falling, meaning that more and more people are finding work, whether that be through full-time employment or part-time employment. However, the affects of the COVID-19 pandemic created a spike in unemployment across the country. U.S. unemployment in comparison Compared to unemployment rates in the European Union, U.S. unemployment is relatively low. Greece was hit particularly hard by the 2008 financial crisis and faced a government debt crisis that sent the Greek economy into a tailspin. Due to this crisis, and the added impact of the pandemic, Greece still has the highest unemployment rate in the European Union.

The annual Finnish Opinions on Security Policy National Defence survey charted Finnish public opinion on foreign policy, defence policy, security, military alliances, military service, and international armed conflicts at the time of the survey. Some questions examined views on factors affecting safety and security. This survey round also included questions about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Opinions were charted on the success of foreign policy in the previous few years, funds allocated to the Defence Forces, whether Finland should resort to armed defence in case of any sort of attack, whether the respondents would be prepared to participate in national defence according to their abilities, and how the global security situation would develop in the next five years. Views were probed on the current, conscription-based defence system and whether women should also participate in conscription. Satisfaction with defence policy in the previous few years was also investigated. The respondents were asked to evaluate the impact of several countries and organisations, such as Russia, China, US, UN, NATO and EU, on Finland's security. The respondents were asked to evaluate Finland's preparedness for the prevention of various security threats, such as armed attack, energy supply issues, infectious diseases and epidemics, environmental hazards, political pressure from other states, economic crisis, terrorism, and attacks against information systems and networks. Views on how the military situation in nearby regions would develop during the next decade were also examined. Next, the respondents were asked whether their trust in the future of the European Union had weakened, strengthened or stayed the same. Views on co-operation between EU and NATO to increase security in Europe were also investigated. Additionally, the respondents' trust in the ability of the Finnish Defence Forces to defend Finland against military threats was examined. The respondents were asked how different issues affected the safety and security of Finland. These included, among others, Finland's EU membership, Finland's NATO membership, participation in the EU defence and in international crisis management. Views were also charted on Finnish military cooperation in the EU, with NATO, other Nordic countries, and the United States. Concerns caused by certain phenomena and issues were charted, such as withdrawals from arms controls agreements, climate change, various infectious diseases and epidemics, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, organised crime, international terrorism, inflation, cyberthreats, political extremism, racism and current developments in Russia, the US, the Middle East and Afghanistan. On the topic of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the respondents were asked whether the EU and its member states should continue to offer military and financial support to Ukraine and impose sanctions on Russia. The respondents were also asked whether other NATO states should be ready to defend Finland in case of an armed attack on Finland and whether Finland should be prepared to defend other NATO states in case of an armed attack on another NATO state. Background variables included, among others, the respondent's gender, age, native language, economic activity and occupational status, household composition, ages of children living at home, gross annual income of the household, level of education, region of residence and political party choice.

In the heart of 2024, America stands at a crossroads, a nation grappling with the crescendo of a climate crisis that refuses to be ignored. The opening notes are a jarring wake-up call. Extreme weather events, once anomalies, now dance a furious ballet across the nation. Hurricanes rage, wildfires consume, and the very rhythm of the seasons seems to falter. This is not the America we knew; it's a nation transformed, scarred by the fingerprints of a changing climate. In the heartland, drought stalks the fields, leaving farmers to grapple with parched earth and dwindling harvests. It's a quiet tragedy, a testament to the fragility of our food systems in the face of a warming world. Coastal communities, once havens of tranquility, now echo with the ominous drumbeat of rising seas. The tide, relentless in its advance, threatens to swallow homes and livelihoods. The fight to protect these shores is a desperate dance, a testament to human resilience against the forces of nature. Methane, the invisible villain, adds its discordant notes to the symphony. This potent greenhouse gas, released from the depths of industry and agriculture, silently accelerates the warming. The battle against methane is a complex waltz, requiring innovation and vigilance. But amidst the chaos, there is a glimmer of hope. The symphony swells with the voices of the people, rising in a chorus of activism. Grassroots movements, fueled by passion and urgency, demand change. It's a powerful reminder that the fate of our planet rests in our hands. Government policies, once timid and hesitant, now join the symphony with a newfound resolve. Renewable energy, conservation, and resilience initiatives offer a counterpoint to the dirge of inaction. It's a delicate dance of politics and economics, but one that holds the promise of a brighter future. Yet, the cost of inaction looms large. The economic toll of climate change is a sobering reminder of the stakes. From crumbling infrastructure to spiraling healthcare costs, the price tag of neglect is staggering. It's a clarion call for investment in a sustainable future. The human cost, too, is undeniable. Climate change is a silent killer, its impact on public health often overlooked. Heat waves, disease outbreaks, and the mental toll of an uncertain future all play a part in this symphony of suffering. It's a plea for compassion and action. Nature itself bears the brunt of the crisis. Biodiversity loss, like a mournful lament, echoes through the symphony. Species disappear, habitats vanish, and the delicate balance of ecosystems teeters on the brink. It's a call to protect the natural world, our shared inheritance. But the final movement of the symphony offers a glimmer of hope. The energy transition, a bold and ambitious undertaking, charts a path towards a cleaner, more sustainable future. Renewable technologies, once a distant dream, now hold the promise of powering our world. It's a testament to human ingenuity and the possibility of a brighter tomorrow. "Climate Change in the USA: A 2024 Call to Action" is a symphony of our times, a testament to the challenges we face and the choices we must make. It's a story of loss and resilience, of despair and hope. It's a call to action, a plea to protect the planet we call home. The symphony is still unfolding, its final notes yet to be written. The question remains: will we heed the call, or will the music fade into silence?