Graph and download economic data for University of Michigan: Inflation Expectation (MICH) from Jan 1978 to May 2025 about consumer sentiment, projection, MI, consumer, inflation, and USA.

Michigan Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 4.50 percent in July from 5 percent in June of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan Inflation Expectations.

Consumer Confidence in the United States increased to 61.70 points in July from 60.70 points in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Consumer Sentiment - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data was reported at 2.400 % in Jul 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 2.600 % for Jun 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data is updated monthly, averaging 2.900 % from Feb 1979 (Median) to Jul 2018, with 382 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.700 % in Feb 1980 and a record low of 2.300 % in Dec 2016. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?' and 'By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up or down, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?'

Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations in the United States decreased to 3.40 percent in July from 4 percent in June of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations.

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Down data was reported at 1.000 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Down data is updated monthly, averaging 3.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 23.000 % in Dec 2008 and a record low of 0.000 % in Oct 1999. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Down data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'

This data set contains the data used in the research project "Cognitive Biases in Consumer Sentiment: the Peak-End Rule and Herding". The following files and items are includedICSdata.xlsx: Index of Consumer Sentiment and its constituents (sheet 1), and PAGO per region (sheet 2); original source University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers, https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/ALFRED_data: macro economic series related to economic growth, inflation, (un)employment and consumption, including publication date; original source ArchivaL Federal Reserve Economic Data (ALFRED), https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/; for each series a README sheet is included with metadataFREDdata: financial and economic series related to stock, bond, housing markets, interest rates,gasoline prices and regional unemployment rates; each sheet contains the mnemonic of the donwloaded series.MicroData_20220113: demographic information of each respondent in the Survey of Consumers conducted by the University of Michigan; downloaded from University of Michigan, Survey of Consumers, https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/Prelim_PA.xlsx: the Index of Consumer Sentiment and its constituent series, as reported in the preliminary annoucement by the University of Michigan (prelim), and the series constructed based on the surveys after the preliminary announcements. The prelim series are publicly available via https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/ . The pa series have been constructed based on interview datas obtains from the University of Michigan. These data are proprietory and cannot be shared freely.DemographicDifferences.xlsx: average differences between the prelim and pa monthly subsample in the demographic statistics available in MicroData_20220113.xlsx. The difference have been constructed based on interview datas obtains from the University of Michigan. These data are proprietory and cannot be shared freely.Methodology: Linear regressions and time-series methods.Findings: We show that two heuristics, the peak-end rule and herding, generate biases in indexes of consumer sentiment. Both affect respondents' assessment of changes in their financial position over the past year. Conform the peak-end rule, their answers relate more to extreme detrimental monthly than to yearly changes in key financial and macro variables. These effects are stronger for more salient variables. As for herding, we document that respondents interviewed in the second round about past financial changes rely too strongly on future expectations from first-round respondents. These effects persist when we account for structural differences in sample composition or for the effect of other predictive variables. Our research shows the presence of both biases outside controlled environments and sheds new light on the relevance of sentiment indexes.

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 6-9% data was reported at 3.000 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 6-9% data is updated monthly, averaging 5.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 26.000 % in Apr 1978 and a record low of 1.000 % in Sep 2010. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 6-9% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'

CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data was reported at 3.000 % in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data is updated monthly, averaging 4.000 % from Feb 1979 (Median) to May 2018, with 380 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 18.000 % in Jul 1982 and a record low of 1.000 % in Nov 2017. CSI: Expected Inflation: Next 5 Yrs: Up by 6-9% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?' and 'By about what percent per year do you expect prices to go up or down, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?'

Michigan Consumer Expectations in the United States decreased to 57.70 points in July from 58.10 points in June of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Michigan Consumer Expectations.

CSI: Government Economic Policy: Good Job data was reported at 28.000 % in May 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 30.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Government Economic Policy: Good Job data is updated monthly, averaging 19.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 49.000 % in Mar 1999 and a record low of 4.000 % in Dec 2008. CSI: Government Economic Policy: Good Job data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The question was: As to the economic policy of the government -- I mean steps taken to fight inflation or unemployment -- would you say the government is going a good job, only fair, or a poor job?

Inflation can cause costly misallocations of resources as consumers seek to protect the purchasing power of their nominal assets. This research deals with the nature of these distortions, known as "shoe-leather costs," in a model where the demand for money is motivated by a shopping-time constraint. While the estimates of the shoe-leather costs of long-run inflation (implied by this model) are generally consistent with previous studies, the research shows that the transition between inflation rates can involve dynamics that alter the nature of these welfare effects. Specifically, the benefits of a disinflation policy are mitigated by the gradual adjustment of the economy in response to a lower inflation rate. This transition can be particularly protracted when there is uncertainty about the credibility of the disinflation policy.

CSI: Expected Interest Rates: Next Yr: Don’t Know data was reported at 2.000 % in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Interest Rates: Next Yr: Don’t Know data is updated monthly, averaging 2.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.000 % in Feb 1978 and a record low of 0.000 % in Nov 2017. CSI: Expected Interest Rates: Next Yr: Don’t Know data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The question was: No one can say for sure, but what do you think will happen to interest rates for borrowing money during the next 12 months -- will they go up, stay the same, or go down?

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Expected Inflation (EXPINF10YR) from Jan 1982 to Jun 2025 about projection, 10-year, inflation, and USA.

CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: Don't Know data was reported at 1.000 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: Don't Know data is updated monthly, averaging 1.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.000 % in May 1978 and a record low of 0.000 % in Feb 2018. CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: Don't Know data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The question was: How about people out of work during the coming 12 months -- do you think there will be more unemployment than now, about the same, or less?

This research focuses on the longer-term monetary relationships in historical data. Charts describing the 10-year average growth rates in the M2 monetary aggregate, nominal GDP, real GDP, and inflation are used to show that there is a consistent longer-term correlation between M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation but not between such nominal variables and real GDP growth. The data reveal extremely long cycles in monetary growth and inflation, the most recent of which was the strong upward trend in M2 growth, nominal GDP growth, and inflation during the 1960s and 1970s, and the strong downward trend since then. Data going back to the 19th century show that the most recent inflation/disinflation cycle is a repetition of earlier long monetary growth and inflation cycles in the United States historical record. Also discussed is a measure of bond market inflation credibility, defined as the difference between averages in long-term bond rates and real GDP growth. By this measure, inflation credibility hovered close to zero during the 1950s and early 1960s, but then rose to a peak of about 10 percent in the early 1980s. During the 1990s, the bond market has yet to restore the low inflation credibility that existed before inflation turned up during the 1960s. The conclusion is that the risks of starting another costly inflation/disinflation cycle could be avoided by monitoring monetary growth and maintaining a sufficiently tight policy to keep inflation low. An environment of credible price stability would allow the economy to function unfettered by inflationary distortions, which is all that can reasonably be expected of monetary policy, and is precisely what should be expected.

This paper constructs daily measures of the real interest rate and expected inflation using commodity futures prices and the term structure of Treasury yields. We find that commodity futures markets respond to surprise increases in the federal funds rate target by raising the inflation rate expected over the next three to nine months. There is no evidence that the real interest rate responds to surprises in the federal funds target. The data from the commodity futures markets are highly volatile. We show that one can substantially reduce the noise using limited information estimators such as the median change. Nevertheless, the basket of commodities actually traded daily is quite narrow and we do not know whether our observable rates are closely connected to the unobservable inflation and real rates that affect economy-wide consumption and investment decisions.

CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: More data was reported at 24.000 % in May 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 25.000 % for Apr 2018. CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: More data is updated monthly, averaging 31.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 72.000 % in May 1980 and a record low of 13.000 % in May 1983. CSI: Expected Unemployment: Next Yr: More data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The question was: How about people out of work during the coming 12 months -- do you think there will be more unemployment than now, about the same, or less?

United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Mean data was reported at 3.300 % in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 3.300 % for Apr 2018. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Mean data is updated monthly, averaging 4.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 13.800 % in Jan 1980 and a record low of 1.000 % in Nov 2001. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Mean data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'

United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 3-4% data was reported at 28.000 % in May 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 25.000 % for Apr 2018. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 3-4% data is updated monthly, averaging 22.000 % from Jan 1978 (Median) to May 2018, with 485 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 33.000 % in May 1997 and a record low of 3.000 % in Apr 1980. United States CSI: Expected Inflation: Next Yr: Up by 3-4% data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by University of Michigan. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.H030: Consumer Sentiment Index: Unemployment, Interest Rates, Prices and Government Expectations. The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'The questions were: 'During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?' and 'By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?'