As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

This data is mainly used to identify the common risk impact of Sino-US economic uncertainty index and Treasury bond yield on the crude oil futures market by constructing the information entropy-Garch-RNN model. The variables mainly include Sino-US economic uncertainty Index, Sino-US 10-year Treasury bond yield, the closing price of WTI crude oil futures, and Brunt. The time period is from March 1, 2006 to September 1, 2023

At the end of 2024, the yield for a 30-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent, slightly higher than the yields for bonds with short-term maturities. Bonds of longer maturities generally have higher yields as a reward for the uncertainty about the condition of financial markets in the future.

Government bond spreads as of April 15, 2025, varied widely among the largest economies when compared to German Bunds and U.S. Treasury notes. The United Kingdom's bond spread was the higest against both, with ***** basis points (bps) over Germany and **** bps over the U.S. In contrast, China and Japan display negative spreads, with Japan having the lowest spread at ****** bps against U.S. Treasuries. Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada showed moderate spreads. Positive bond spreads indicate that a country’s government bonds have higher yields compared to the benchmark bonds - in this case, the German Bunds and U.S. Treasury notes. Higher spreads often signal perceived higher risk or economic uncertainty, as investors demand greater returns for holding these bonds. expectations. Conversely, negative spreads mean that these bonds offer lower yields than the benchmark. Negative spreads often indicate strong investor confidence, safe-haven status, or lower inflation expectations, as investors are willing to accept lower returns for the perceived stability of these bonds.

As of November 2024, Luxembourg government bonds with maturities of close to ten years reached an average of **** percent per annum. That was almost *** percent less than the previous year. Treasury notes: a safe haven in times of trouble Ten-year government bonds, otherwise known as treasury notes, are debt obligations issued by a government which matures in ten years. They are considered a low-risk investment as they are backed by the government and their ability to raise taxes to cover its obligations. In August 2019, investors became more interested in these investments as global developments sparked uncertainty on the stock markets. Traditionally, government bonds from the U.S. and Germany have the highest liquidity. When stock exchanges fall with around ten percent, a German treasury note with an interest rate of around **** percent is then considered a relatively safe place. What are other options to do with your money in Luxembourg? In March 2023, the interest rate of short-term household deposits (with an agreed maturity of up to one year) in Luxembourg was ****. This was the lowest of all Benelux countries (Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands). Low interest rates on consumer savings are deemed a consequence of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB), as it maintains artificially low interest rates to increase inflation on the European continent. Low interest rates and uncertainty on the stock exchange might therefore explain investors’ interest in gold. The international price of gold per troy ounce has increased sharply in recent years.

Since reaching the debt limit in January 2023, the U.S. Treasury has used extraordinary measures to fund the government. However, the Treasury estimates those measures will be exhausted later this year. To gauge possible effects, we review economic and financial market outcomes during previous debt limit episodes. In each case, these episodes led to increased borrowing costs, financial market volatility, and uncertainty, particularly when the resolutions were prolonged.

This study utilizes a local projections framework to analyze the macroeconomic and finan-cial market repercussions of an unanticipated increase in U.S. corporate bond spreads. Spe-cifically, it quantifies the effects of a one percentage point rise in the excess bond premium, as defined by Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012), on key real economic indicators using quarter-ly data, while also assessing the corresponding responses of stock prices and exchange rates on a monthly basis. The resulting impulse response functions reveal that a shock to corporate bond spreads exerts a statistically significant negative impact on economic activity and stock prices, while concurrently leading to an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Further analysis, achieved by dividing the sample into two distinct periods, demonstrates that the adverse ef-fects of financial shocks on real GDP post-1995 are less pronounced but exhibit greater per-sistence. Additionally, an increase in stock price volatility suggests that widening bond spreads may themselves contribute to heightened uncertainty. The findings further under-score the U.S. dollar's role as a safe haven and highlight the potential of U.S. financial shocks to propagate global uncertainty.

Gold prices hit a record high above $3,050 per ounce due to economic forecasts and Federal Reserve policy decisions, making gold an attractive investment amid rising inflation and declining US dollar and Treasury yields.

As of December 2024, all United Kingdom government debt securities were returning positive yields, regardless of maturity. This places the yield of both UK short term bonds and long term bonds above that of major countries like Germany, France and Japan, but lower than the United States. What are government bonds? Government bonds are debt instruments where a certain amount of money is given to the issuer, in exchange for regular payments of interest over a fixed period. At the end of this period the issuer then returns the amount in full. Bonds differ from a regular loan through how they can be traded on financial markets once issued. This ability to trade bonds makes it more complex to measure the return investors receive from bonds, as the price they buy a bond for on the market may differ from the price the same bond was initially issued at. The yield is therefore calculated as what investors can expect to receive based on current market prices paid for the bond, not the value it was issued at. In total, UK government debt amounted to over 2.4 trillion British pounds in 2023 – with the majority being comprised of different types of UK government bonds. Why are inverted yield curves important? UK government bond yields over recent years have taken on a typical shape, with short term bonds having a lower yield than bonds with a maturity of 10 to 20 years. The higher yield of longer-term bonds compensates investors for the higher level of uncertainty in the future. However, if investors are sufficiently worried about both a short term economic decline, and low long term growth, they may prefer to purchase short term bonds in order to secure assets with regular interest payments in the here and now (as opposed to shares, which can lose a lot of value in a short time). This can lead to an inverted yield curve, where shorter term debt has a higher yield. Inverted yield curves are generally seen as a reliable indicator of a recession, with inverted yields occurring before most recent U.S. recessions. The major exception to this is the recession from the coronavirus pandemic – but even then, U.S. yield curves came perilously close to being inverted in mid-2019.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Market Outlook

According to our latest research, the global Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) market size reached USD 1.12 trillion in 2024, reflecting the growing demand for inflation-hedged investment vehicles. The market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 6.1% from 2025 to 2033, with the market value expected to reach approximately USD 1.91 trillion by 2033. This robust growth is primarily driven by heightened concerns over inflationary pressures, increased institutional participation, and the rising need for portfolio diversification in uncertain economic climates. As per our latest research, a combination of macroeconomic volatility and evolving investor preferences continues to shape the trajectory of the TIPS market globally.

One of the primary growth factors for the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) market is the persistent uncertainty surrounding global inflation. In recent years, the resurgence of inflation across major economies has reignited interest in instruments that can offer protection against eroding purchasing power. TIPS, which are designed to adjust their principal value in line with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), have become increasingly attractive to both individual and institutional investors seeking to safeguard their capital. The growing awareness of the limitations of traditional fixed-income securities in inflationary environments has led to a strategic shift, with asset managers and pension funds allocating a larger proportion of their portfolios to TIPS. This trend is further supported by the growing sophistication of investors who are now more inclined to utilize advanced financial instruments for risk management and yield optimization.

Another significant driver fueling the expansion of the TIPS market is the evolving regulatory and policy landscape. Central banks and financial regulators in developed markets, particularly in North America and Europe, have introduced measures aimed at enhancing market transparency, liquidity, and accessibility. These initiatives have not only increased the supply of TIPS but have also facilitated broader participation by lowering entry barriers for retail investors. Additionally, the proliferation of digital trading platforms and the integration of TIPS into major bond indices have contributed to improved price discovery and secondary market liquidity. These developments have made it easier for investors of all sizes to access, trade, and manage TIPS holdings, further bolstering market growth and deepening investor engagement.

The increasing adoption of TIPS for portfolio diversification and retirement planning represents another crucial growth factor. With the demographic shift towards an aging population, especially in developed economies, there is a heightened emphasis on preserving wealth and ensuring stable income streams during retirement. TIPS, with their inflation-adjusted returns and government backing, are increasingly being incorporated into target-date funds, pension plans, and retirement portfolios. Financial advisors and wealth managers are proactively educating clients about the benefits of TIPS as a strategic hedge against long-term inflation risks. This growing demand from the retirement planning segment is expected to provide a steady and resilient source of growth for the TIPS market over the forecast period.

In addition to TIPS, investors are increasingly exploring Perpetual Preferred Securities as a viable option for income generation and capital preservation. These securities, which offer fixed dividends and have no maturity date, provide a steady income stream that can be particularly appealing in low-interest-rate environments. The perpetual nature of these securities allows investors to benefit from ongoing income without the pressure of reinvestment risk associated with traditional bonds. As economic conditions fluctuate, Perpetual Preferred Securities offer a blend of equity and fixed-income characteristics, making them a strategic choice for those looking to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflationary pressures. The growing interest in these securities is reflective of a broader trend towards seeking stable, long-term investment solutions in uncertain economic times.

Regionally, North America remains the dominant force in the gl

Dataset Description: 34-year Daily Stock Data (1990-2024)

Context and Inspiration

This dataset captures historical financial market data and macroeconomic indicators spanning over three decades, from 1990 onwards. It is designed for financial analysis, time series forecasting, and exploring relationships between market volatility, stock indices, and macroeconomic factors. This dataset is particularly relevant for researchers, data scientists, and enthusiasts interested in studying: - Volatility forecasting (VIX) - Stock market trends (S&P 500, DJIA, HSI) - Macroeconomic influences on markets (joblessness, interest rates, etc.) - The effect of geopolitical and economic uncertainty (EPU, GPRD)

Sources

The data has been aggregated from a mix of historical financial records and publicly available macroeconomic datasets: - VIX (Volatility Index): Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). - Stock Indices (S&P 500, DJIA, HSI): Yahoo Finance and historical financial databases. - Volume Data: Extracted from official exchange reports. - Macroeconomic Indicators: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Federal Reserve, and other public records. - Uncertainty Metrics (EPU, GPRD): Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Global Policy Uncertainty Database.

Columns

1. dt: Date of observation in YYYY-MM-DD format.
2. vix: VIX (Volatility Index), a measure of expected market volatility.
3. sp500: S&P 500 index value, a benchmark of the U.S. stock market.
4. sp500_volume: Daily trading volume for the S&P 500.
5. djia: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), another key U.S. market index.
6. djia_volume: Daily trading volume for the DJIA.
7. hsi: Hang Seng Index, representing the Hong Kong stock market.
8. ads: Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti (ADS) Business Conditions Index, reflecting U.S. economic activity.
9. us3m: U.S. Treasury 3-month bond yield, a short-term interest rate proxy.
10. joblessness: U.S. unemployment rate, reported as quartiles (1 represents lowest quartile and so on).
11. epu: Economic Policy Uncertainty Index, quantifying policy-related economic uncertainty.
12. GPRD: Geopolitical Risk Index (Daily), measuring geopolitical risk levels.
13. prev_day: Previous day’s S&P 500 closing value, added for lag-based time series analysis.

Key Features

• Cross-Market Analysis: Compare U.S. markets (S&P 500, DJIA) with international benchmarks like HSI.
• Macroeconomic Insights: Assess how external factors like joblessness, interest rates, and economic uncertainty affect markets.
• Temporal Scope: Longitudinal data facilitates trend analysis and machine learning model training.

Potential Use Cases

• Forecasting market indices using machine learning or statistical models.
• Building volatility trading strategies with VIX Futures.
• Economic research on relationships between policy uncertainty and market behavior.
• Educational material for financial data visualization and analysis tutorials.

Feel free to use this dataset for academic, research, or personal projects.

Gold prices hit a record high, surpassing $3,200, as it emerges as a preferred safe-haven asset amid market uncertainties, outperforming Treasury bills.

Treasury And Risk Management Software Market size was valued at USD 6.1 Billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 13.6 Billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 12.4% during the forecast period 2024-2031.

Treasury And Risk Management Software Market Drivers

Growing Financial Complexity:

Expanding Global Operations: Businesses are increasingly operating in a globalized environment, with complex financial transactions across different currencies and markets. Treasury and risk management software helps them centralize and streamline these operations. Increased Regulatory Requirements: Regulatory bodies are implementing stricter financial regulations for businesses. This software helps ensure compliance with these regulations by automating reporting processes and providing real-time data analysis. Focus on Risk Mitigation:

Market Volatility and Uncertainty: Financial markets are becoming increasingly volatile, with factors like geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations creating uncertainty. This software helps businesses identify, assess, and manage various financial risks. Fraud Prevention and Cybersecurity Threats: The rising threat of financial fraud and cyberattacks necessitates robust risk management solutions. This software can help detect suspicious activity, prevent fraud attempts, and safeguard sensitive financial data. Improved Efficiency and Decision-Making:

Automation of Manual Tasks: Treasury and risk management software automates manual tasks such as cash flow forecasting, liquidity management, and risk assessment. This frees up valuable time for treasury teams to focus on strategic financial planning. Data-Driven Decision Making: These software solutions offer comprehensive data analytics and reporting capabilities. This empowers businesses to make informed decisions based on real-time financial insights and risk assessments.

High-frequency trading consists of companies that trade large numbers of orders of financial securities in fractions of a second using quantitative trading algorithms. High-frequency trading is a subset of quantitative investing, which employs algorithms that analyze financial data to conduct trades. This industry is growing due to advancements in technology that have enabled investors to trade at faster rates than ever. Many factors have caused revenue to rise during the current period. During the pandemic investor uncertainty soared and rattled financial markets. As a result, trading volumes climbed leading to greater industry demand and revenue growth as firms capitalized on rapid transactions. The industry has also increasingly invested in computers and software to enhance the speed and efficiency of trade execution. Increased computer and software investments also help the industry improve portfolio optimization, which helps firms maximize gains while reducing market risks. As inflation soared in the latter part of the period, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Higher rates made bonds more attractive to investors, reducing investment in the stock market and the industry’s services. This posed a threat to high-frequency traders, although in 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a point as inflationary pressures eased. This will limit investments in bonds and attract investment back into equities. Overall, industry revenue has grown at a CAGR of 5.7% to $7.1 billion over the past five years, including an expected decline of 3.7% in 2024 alone. Over the next five years, steady income growth will raise access to credit, enabling consumers to invest more in the stock market. As competition among financial institutions soars, private investment in computers and software will increase. These investments will make high-frequency trading more efficient, increasing its attractiveness. Investor uncertainty is anticipated to decline, so the volume of trades will be relatively low and the industry won't have a vital source of downstream demand. Overall, industry revenue is expected to lag at a CAGR of 2.7% to $6.2 billion over the five years to 2029.

This 6MB download is a zip file containing 5 pdf documents and 2 xlsx spreadsheets. Presentation on COVID-19 and the potential impacts on employment

May 2020Waka Kotahi wants to better understand the potential implications of the COVID-19 downturn on the land transport system, particularly the potential impacts on regional economies and communities.

To do this, in May 2020 Waka Kotahi commissioned Martin Jenkins and Infometrics to consider the potential impacts of COVID-19 on New Zealand’s economy and demographics, as these are two key drivers of transport demand. In addition to providing a scan of national and international COVID-19 trends, the research involved modelling the economic impacts of three of the Treasury’s COVID-19 scenarios, to a regional scale, to help us understand where the impacts might be greatest.

Waka Kotahi studied this modelling by comparing the percentage difference in employment forecasts from the Treasury’s three COVID-19 scenarios compared to the business as usual scenario.

The source tables from the modelling (Tables 1-40), and the percentage difference in employment forecasts (Tables 41-43), are available as spreadsheets.

Arataki - potential impacts of COVID-19 Final Report

Employment modelling - interactive dashboard

The modelling produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods – 2021, 2025 and 2031. In May 2020, the forecasts for 2021 carried greater certainty as they reflected the impacts of current events, such as border restrictions, reduction in international visitors and students etc. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts were less certain because of the potential for significant shifts in the socio-economic situation over the intervening years. While these later forecasts were useful in helping to understand the relative scale and duration of potential COVID-19 related impacts around the country, they needed to be treated with care recognising the higher levels of uncertainty.

The May 2020 research suggested that the ‘slow recovery scenario’ (Treasury’s scenario 5) was the most likely due to continuing high levels of uncertainty regarding global efforts to manage the pandemic (and the duration and scale of the resulting economic downturn).

The updates to Arataki V2 were framed around the ‘Slower Recovery Scenario’, as that scenario remained the most closely aligned with the unfolding impacts of COVID-19 in New Zealand and globally at that time.

Find out more about Arataki, our 10-year plan for the land transport system

May 2021The May 2021 update to employment modelling used to inform Arataki Version 2 is now available. Employment modelling dashboard - updated 2021Arataki used the May 2020 information to compare how various regions and industries might be impacted by COVID-19. Almost a year later, it is clear that New Zealand fared better than forecast in May 2020.Waka Kotahi therefore commissioned an update to the projections through a high-level review of:the original projections for 2020/21 against performancethe implications of the most recent global (eg International monetary fund world economic Outlook) and national economic forecasts (eg Treasury half year economic and fiscal update)The treasury updated its scenarios in its December half year fiscal and economic update (HYEFU) and these new scenarios have been used for the revised projections.Considerable uncertainty remains about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn, for example with regards to the duration of border restrictions, update of immunisation programmes. The updated analysis provides us with additional information regarding which sectors and parts of the country are likely to be most impacted. We continue to monitor the situation and keep up to date with other cross-Government scenario development and COVID-19 related work. The updated modelling has produced employment forecasts for each region and district over three time periods - 2022, 2025, 2031.The 2022 forecasts carry greater certainty as they reflect the impacts of current events. The 2025 and 2031 forecasts are less certain because of the potential for significant shifts over that time.

Data reuse caveats: as per license.

Additionally, please read / use this data in conjunction with the Infometrics and Martin Jenkins reports, to understand the uncertainties and assumptions involved in modelling the potential impacts of COVID-19.

COVID-19’s effect on industry and regional economic outcomes for NZ Transport Agency [PDF 620 KB]

Data quality statement: while the modelling undertaken is high quality, it represents two point-in-time analyses undertaken during a period of considerable uncertainty. This uncertainty comes from several factors relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, including:

a lack of clarity about the size of the global downturn and how quickly the international economy might recover differing views about the ability of the New Zealand economy to bounce back from the significant job losses that are occurring and how much of a structural change in the economy is required the possibility of a further wave of COVID-19 cases within New Zealand that might require a return to Alert Levels 3 or 4.

While high levels of uncertainty remain around the scale of impacts from the pandemic, particularly in coming years, the modelling is useful in indicating the direction of travel and the relative scale of impacts in different parts of the country.

Data quality caveats: as noted above, there is considerable uncertainty about the potential scale and duration of the COVID-19 downturn. Please treat the specific results of the modelling carefully, particularly in the forecasts to later years (2025, 2031), given the potential for significant shifts in New Zealand's socio-economic situation before then.

As such, please use the modelling results as a guide to the potential scale of the impacts of the downturn in different locations, rather than as a precise assessment of impacts over the coming decade.

Australia's gold ore miners have performed well over the past few years thanks to skyrocketing gold prices, driven by growing consumer demand for gold to hedge against inflation, economic uncertainty and geopolitical unrest. More recently, the US's sweeping tariffs have escalated trade tensions, causing uncertainty to loom over global economic growth prospects. This trend has rattled investors' confidence in riskier assets, propelling demand for safe-haven assets like gold in a "flight-to-safety". While investors also view U.S. Treasury bonds as a risk-free asset, the country's involvement in trade tensions has diminished its status as a safe-haven asset, contributing to the capital inflows from U.S. Treasury bonds to gold and lifting the commodity's price. Central banks have also actively purchased gold to diversify their reserve assets and bolster financial stability, supporting demand. Notably, the People's Bank of China diversified its asset base by selling US treasuries and aggressively purchasing gold, further spurring demand. The gold price climb in 2024-25 continues to underpin miners' optimism. Even so, production volumes haven't reflected the hike in demand, largely because of supply chain disruptions, high operation costs and unfavourable weather events. Labour shortages and high input costs intermittently hampered mining operations. AISCs have also risen as producers battle supply chain disruptions, climbing energy prices and labour shortages, limiting miners' profitability gains. Still, the elevated gold prices have stimulated miners' profitability expansion. Overall, gold ore mining revenue is expected to have increased at an annualised 5.7% over the five years through 2024-25, to $37.9 billion. This trend includes a 25.9% surge in 2024-25 thanks to the high gold prices. Gold prices are set to ease over the next few years, constraining revenue growth. However, geopolitical tensions and the easing of monetary policies will continue to support gold demand. Various project expansions will boost domestic gold production in the coming years. The successful expansion of mines like the Cowal underground mine and upcoming projects like the Havieron Project will also bolster gold production. Gold miners will continue focusing on sustainability initiatives, including reducing energy consumption, using renewable energy and minimising greenhouse gas emissions, as they seek to futureproof their operations amid tightening global sustainability regulations. Gold ore miners are also gradually adopting emerging technologies to enhance productivity and safety. This trend is set to continue in the coming years as the importance of efficiency in operations climbs. Higher gold output is forecast to cause industry revenue to rise at an annualised 1.4% through the end of 2029-30, to $40.6 billion.

In the decade after the 2008 financial crisis, pension providers across faced challenging conditions thanks to interest rates falling to historical lows, affecting the returns on fixed-income investments, like bonds. Revenue is expected to drop at a compound annual rate of 2.6% over the five years through 2025 to €517.9 billion, including a forecast climb of 2.5% in 2025. Profit has also edged downwards due to higher interest rates and geopolitical tensions hitting equity and bond markets, though the average industry profit margin still stands strong, at an estimated 43.7% in 2025. Pension providers invest the contributions of policyholders into investment markets like bonds and equity to ensure their assets can meet their liabilities – the benefits paid to retirees. Pension funds invest heavily in bond markets due to their relatively low risk and low volatility. However, this type of fixed-income investment has struggled since 2022 in the rising base rate environment, which saw yields skyrocket and bond prices plummet, hitting investment income. Despite interest rates coming down over the two years through 2025, bond values have remained extremely volatile, creating difficulties in calculating long-term planning and the solvency of funds. Bond markets have also been clouded by ongoing uncertainty surrounding upcoming rate cuts and trade tensions, eroding investment income. Equity markets have experienced a similarly volatile period over recent years, with investors pricing rate cuts at the tail-end of 2023, inciting hefty capital flows and supporting investment income for funds exposed to the asset class. In 2024, US equities performed particularly well due to the dominance of big-tech companies and the excitement surrounding AI. However, Trump’s erratic policies have incited a shift away from US markets in 2025, aiding pension funds with exposure to European markets, which are seen as less risky. Revenue is anticipated to climb at a compound annual rate of 6% over the five years through 2030 to €691.5 billion, while the average industry profit margin is estimated to swell to 45.3% in 2030. The shift towards European markets is set to continue in the short term. However, governments must be proactive in taking measures to capitalise on this demand. This would involve the expansion of a safe investment base of sovereign bonds jointly issued by euro members, overcoming the investment headaches that traditionally arose from fragmented national government bond markets and creating a liquid market for pension funds to exploit, aiding investment income. However, an ageing population will remain a concern for pension providers as more people retire and claim their retirement benefits, ratcheting up liabilities.