Effective September 27, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from wonder.cdc.gov. Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected. Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.

It is estimated that by the end of 2021 the COVID-19 pandemic had caused around 932,458 excess deaths in the United States. This statistic shows the cumulative mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in 2020-2021, by month.

In 2020, the U.S. had the highest COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate among non-elderly people compared to other peer countries. “Excess deaths” represent the number of deaths beyond what is expected in a typical year. This measure illustrates the mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This statistic presents the COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate in the U.S. and select countries in 2020, by age group (per 100,000 people in age group).

Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data was reported at 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1,195.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data is updated weekly, averaging 1,195.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Arkansas data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Arkansas data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 93.000 Number in 07 Aug 2021 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Arkansas data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 209.000 Number in 13 Jan 2018 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

Daily updates of Covid-19 Global Excess Deaths from the Economist's GitHub repository: https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model

Interpreting estimates

Estimating excess deaths for every country every day since the pandemic began is a complex and difficult task. Rather than being overly confident in a single number, limited data means that we can often only give a very very wide range of plausible values. Focusing on central estimates in such cases would be misleading: unless ranges are very narrow, the 95% range should be reported when possible. The ranges assume that the conditions for bootstrap confidence intervals are met. Please see our tracker page and methodology for more information.

New variants

The Omicron variant, first detected in southern Africa in November 2021, appears to have characteristics that are different to earlier versions of sars-cov-2. Where this variant is now dominant, this change makes estimates uncertain beyond the ranges indicated. Other new variants may do the same. As more data is incorporated from places where new variants are dominant, predictions improve.

Non-reporting countries

Turkmenistan and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have not reported any covid-19 figures since the start of the pandemic. They also have not published all-cause mortality data. Exports of estimates for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have been temporarily disabled as it now issues contradictory data: reporting a significant outbreak through its state media, but zero confirmed covid-19 cases/deaths to the WHO.

Acknowledgements

A special thanks to all our sources and to those who have made the data to create these estimates available. We list all our sources in our methodology. Within script 1, the source for each variable is also given as the data is loaded, with the exception of our sources for excess deaths data, which we detail in on our free-to-read excess deaths tracker as well as on GitHub. The gradient booster implementation used to fit the models is aGTBoost, detailed here.

Calculating excess deaths for the entire world over multiple years is both complex and imprecise. We welcome any suggestions on how to improve the model, be it data, algorithm, or logic. If you have one, please open an issue.

The Economist would also like to acknowledge the many people who have helped us refine the model so far, be it through discussions, facilitating data access, or offering coding assistance. A special thanks to Ariel Karlinsky, Philip Schellekens, Oliver Watson, Lukas Appelhans, Berent Å. S. Lunde, Gideon Wakefield, Johannes Hunger, Carol D'Souza, Yun Wei, Mehran Hosseini, Samantha Dolan, Mollie Van Gordon, Rahul Arora, Austin Teda Atmaja, Dirk Eddelbuettel and Tom Wenseleers.

All coding and data collection to construct these models (and make them update dynamically) was done by Sondre Ulvund Solstad. Should you have any questions about them after reading the methodology, please open an issue or contact him at sondresolstad@economist.com.

Suggested citation The Economist and Solstad, S. (corresponding author), 2021. The pandemic’s true death toll. [online] The Economist. Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates [Accessed ---]. First published in the article "Counting the dead", The Economist, issue 20, 2021.

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data was reported at 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 20,737.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data is updated weekly, averaging 20,737.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

As of March 10, 2023, the death rate from COVID-19 in the state of New York was 397 per 100,000 people. New York is one of the states with the highest number of COVID-19 cases.

In 2020, COVID-19 deaths accounted for a majority of all excess deaths in the U.S. across all age groups. This share increased with age, so that COVID-19 deaths attributed to more than two-thirds of excess deaths among those 75 years and older. This statistic illustrates COVID-19 deaths as share of excess deaths in the U.S. in 2020, by age group.

United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Avg No. of Deaths: Maine data was reported at 313.000 Number in 08 Jan 2022. This stayed constant from the previous number of 313.000 Number for 01 Jan 2022. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Avg No. of Deaths: Maine data is updated weekly, averaging 291.500 Number from Jan 2017 to 08 Jan 2022, with 262 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 317.000 Number in 16 Mar 2019 and a record low of 266.000 Number in 18 Aug 2018. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Avg No. of Deaths: Maine data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G014: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted.

Content

This data represents excess deaths in an area (more deaths than expected). Although causes are recorded, one can see that excess deaths increased dramatically in 2020.

Acknowledgements

Original Source: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/excess-deaths-associated-with-covid-19-35b8c

Inspiration

Using the Excess Death counts, make predictions, per day, as to what the hospital case load, and death load, for covid cases will be. Can use any source (local, federal, international) as the benchmark.

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods. This visualization provides weekly estimates of excess deaths by the jurisdiction in which the death occurred. Weekly counts of deaths are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.Counts of deaths from all causes of death, including COVID-19, are presented. As some deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not diagnosed or not mentioned on the death certificate), tracking all-cause mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be undercounted. Additionally, deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19 were also estimated. Comparing these two sets of estimates — excess deaths with and without COVID-19 — can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are reported as due to other causes of death. These deaths could represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths, or potentially could be indirectly related to the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., deaths from other causes occurring in the context of health care shortages or overburdened health care systems).Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). A range of values for the number of excess deaths was calculated as the difference between the observed count and one of two thresholds (either the average expected count or the upper bound of the 95% prediction interval), by week and jurisdiction.Provisional death counts are weighted to account for incomplete data. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Weights are based on completeness of provisional data in prior years, but the timeliness of data may have changed in 2020 relative to prior years, so the resulting weighted estimates may be too high in some jurisdictions and too low in others. As more information about the accuracy of the weighted estimates is obtained, further refinements to the weights may be made, which will impact the estimates. Any changes to the methods or weighting algorithm will be noted in the Technical Notes when they occur. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.This visualization includes several different estimates:Number of excess deaths: A range of estimates for the number of excess deaths was calculated as the difference between the observed count and one of two thresholds (either the average expected count or the upper bound threshold), by week and jurisdiction. Negative values, where the observed count fell below the threshold, were set to zero.Percent excess: The percent excess was defined as the number of excess deaths divided by the threshold.Total number of excess deaths: The total number of excess deaths in each jurisdiction was calculated by summing the excess deaths in each week, from February 1, 2020 to present. Similarly, the total number of excess deaths for the US overall was computed as a sum of jurisdiction-specific numbers of excess deaths (with negative values set to zero), and not directly estimated using the Farrington surveillance algorithms.Select a dashboard from the menu, then click on “Update Dashboard” to navigate through the different graphics.The first dashboard shows the weekly predicted counts of deaths from all causes, and the threshold for the expected number of deaths. Select a jurisdiction from the drop-down menu to show data for that jurisdiction.The second dashboard shows the weekly predicted counts of deaths from all causes and the weekly count of deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19. Select a jurisdiction from the drop-down menu to show data for that jurisdiction.The th

This dataset represents preliminary estimates of cumulative U.S. COVID-19 disease burden for the 2024-2025 period, including illnesses, outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths. The weekly COVID-19-associated burden estimates are preliminary and based on continuously collected surveillance data from patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections. The data come from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)-Associated Hospitalization Surveillance Network (COVID-NET), a surveillance platform that captures data from hospitals that serve about 10% of the U.S. population. Each week CDC estimates a range (i.e., lower estimate and an upper estimate) of COVID-19 -associated burden that have occurred since October 1, 2024.

Note: Data are preliminary and subject to change as more data become available. Rates for recent COVID-19-associated hospital admissions are subject to reporting delays; as new data are received each week, previous rates are updated accordingly.

References

1. Reed C, Chaves SS, Daily Kirley P, et al. Estimating influenza disease burden from population-based surveillance data in the United States. PLoS One. 2015;10(3):e0118369. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118369 
2. Rolfes, MA, Foppa, IM, Garg, S, et al. Annual estimates of the burden of seasonal influenza in the United States: A tool for strengthening influenza surveillance and preparedness. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2018; 12: 132– 137. https://doi.org/10.1111/irv.12486
3. Tokars JI, Rolfes MA, Foppa IM, Reed C. An evaluation and update of methods for estimating the number of influenza cases averted by vaccination in the United States. Vaccine. 2018;36(48):7331-7337. doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.10.026 
4. Collier SA, Deng L, Adam EA, Benedict KM, Beshearse EM, Blackstock AJ, Bruce BB, Derado G, Edens C, Fullerton KE, Gargano JW, Geissler AL, Hall AJ, Havelaar AH, Hill VR, Hoekstra RM, Reddy SC, Scallan E, Stokes EK, Yoder JS, Beach MJ. Estimate of Burden and Direct Healthcare Cost of Infectious Waterborne Disease in the United States. Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 Jan;27(1):140-149. doi: 10.3201/eid2701.190676. PMID: 33350905; PMCID: PMC7774540.
5. Reed C, Kim IK, Singleton JA,  et al. Estimated influenza illnesses and hospitalizations averted by vaccination–United States, 2013-14 influenza season. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2014 Dec 12;63(49):1151-4. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6349a2.htm 
6. Reed C, Angulo FJ, Swerdlow DL, et al. Estimates of the Prevalence of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, United States, April–July 2009. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009;15(12):2004-2007. https://dx.doi.org/10.3201/eid1512.091413  
7. Devine O, Pham H, Gunnels B, et al. Extrapolating Sentinel Surveillance Information to Estimate National COVID-19 Hospital Admission Rates: A Bayesian Modeling Approach. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/irv.70026. Volume18, Issue10. October 2024.
8. https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/covid-net/index.html">COVID-NET | COVID-19 | CDC 
9. https://www.cdc.gov/covid/hcp/clinical-care/systematic-review-process.html 
10. https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/1/3/pgac079/6604394?login=false">Excess natural-cause deaths in California by cause and setting: March 2020 through February 2021 | PNAS Nexus | Oxford Academic (oup.com)
11. Kruschke, J. K. 2011. Doing Bayesian data analysis: a tutorial with R and BUGS. Elsevier, Amsterdam, Section 3.3.5.

Replication materials for "Excess Mortality in U.S. Prisons During the COVID-19 Pandemic." 2023. Science Advances.

It is estimated that from 2020 to 2021, the mean rate of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes was highest in Peru. In 2020-2021, there were around 437 excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic per 100,000 population in Peru. This statistic shows the mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes in 2020-2021 in select countries worldwide, per 100,000 population.

Source

This data comes from the New York Times Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data in the United States GitHub repository. They use it to power their interactive page(s) on Covid-19, such as Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count.

What's Included?

The primary data published here are the daily cumulative number of cases and deaths reported in each county and state across the U.S. since the beginning of the pandemic. We have also published these additional data sets:

• Prisons: Cases in prisons
• Colleges: Cases on college and university campuses.
• Excess deaths: The elevated overall number of deaths during the pandemic.
• Mask use: A July 2020 survey of how regularly people in each county wore masks.
• Averages and anomalies: A set of pre-computed rolling averages of cases and deaths for ease of analysis or use in making graphics, along with a set of days with anomalous data that have been excluded from the averages.

The cumulative & rolling averages for cases and deaths are continually updated, but the more specific data mentioned above for prisons, etc. is no longer being updated.

This includes data at the national, state, and county levels.

License and Attribution

If you use this data, you must attribute it to “The New York Times” in any publication. If you would like a more expanded description of the data, you could say “Data from The New York Times, based on reports from state and local health agencies.”

Acknowledgements

Header Image: https://www.pexels.com/photo/n95-face-mask-3993241/

More Information

See the original New York Times source README which is also included in this dataset.

In 2020, the highest COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate was among older Hispanics. “Excess deaths” represent the number of deaths beyond what is expected in a typical year. This measure illustrates the mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This statistic presents COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rates in the U.S. in 2020, by age group and ethnicity.

Historical Coronavirus (Covid-19) Data for the United States

NEW: We are publishing the data behind our excess deaths tracker in order to provide researchers and the public with a better record of the true toll of the pandemic. This data is compiled from official national and municipal data for 24 countries. See the data and documentation in the excess-deaths/ directory.

[ U.S. Data (Raw CSV) | U.S. State-Level Data (Raw CSV) | U.S. County-Level Data (Raw CSV) ]

The New York Times is releasing a series of data files with cumulative counts of coronavirus cases in the United States, at the state and county level, over time. We are compiling this time series data from state and local governments and health departments in an attempt to provide a complete record of the ongoing outbreak.

Since late January, The Times has tracked cases of coronavirus in real time as they were identified after testing. Because of the widespread shortage of testing, however, the data is necessarily limited in the picture it presents of the outbreak.

We have used this data to power our maps and reporting tracking the outbreak, and it is now being made available to the public in response to requests from researchers, scientists and government officials who would like access to the data to better understand the outbreak.

The data begins with the first reported coronavirus case in Washington State on Jan. 21, 2020. We will publish regular updates to the data in this repository.

Live and Historical Data

We are providing two sets of data with cumulative counts of coronavirus cases and deaths: one with our most current numbers for each geography and another with historical data showing the tally for each day for each geography.

The historical data files are at the top level of the directory and contain data up to, but not including the current day. The live data files are in the live/ directory.

A key difference between the historical and live files is that the numbers in the historical files are the final counts at the end of each day, while the live files have figures that may be a partial count released during the day but cannot necessarily be considered the final, end-of-day tally..

The historical and live data are released in three files, one for each of these geographic levels: U.S., states and counties.

Each row of data reports the cumulative number of coronavirus cases and deaths based on our best reporting up to the moment we publish an update. Our counts include both laboratory confirmed and probable cases using criteria that were developed by states and the federal government. Not all geographies are reporting probable cases and yet others are providing confirmed and probable as a single total. Please read here for a full discussion of this issue.

We do our best to revise earlier entries in the data when we receive new information. If a county is not listed for a date, then there were zero reported confirmed cases and deaths.

State and county files contain FIPS codes, a standard geographic identifier, to make it easier for an analyst to combine this data with other data sets like a map file or population data.

Download all the data or clone this repository by clicking the green "Clone or download" button above.

Historical Data

U.S. National-Level Data

The daily number of cases and deaths nationwide, including states, U.S. territories and the District of Columbia, can be found in the us.csv file. (Raw CSV file here.)

date,cases,deaths
2020-01-21,1,0
...

State-Level Data

State-level data can be found in the states.csv file. (Raw CSV file here.)

date,state,fips,cases,deaths
2020-01-21,Washington,53,1,0
...

County-Level Data

County-level data can be found in the counties.csv file. (Raw CSV file here.)

date,county,state,fips,c...

This is a daily updated dataset of COVID-19 deaths around the world. The dataset contains data of 45 countries. This data was collected from

• The New York Times
• The Economist

us-counties.csv contains data of the daily number of new cases and deaths, the seven-day rolling average and the seven-day rolling average per 100,000 residents of US at county level. The average reported is the seven day trailing average i.e. average of the day reported and six days prior.

all_weekly_excess_deaths.csv collates detailed weekly breakdowns from official sources around the world.

Image credits: Unsplash - schluditsch

Let's pray for the ones who lost their lives fighting the battle and for the ones who risk their lives against this virus 🙏