A 2023 survey found that 55 percent of Republicans do not think that Congress should raise the debt ceiling after the U.S. treasury reached its spending limits in January 2023. The U.S. debt ceiling does not authorize new spending commitments, it simply allows the government to finance existing legal obligations that it has made in the past. If a government does not raise the debt ceiling, the U.S. treasury will default on its debt, and could trigger an economic recession.

In 2023, the gross federal debt in the United States amounted to around 93,500 U.S. dollars per capita. This is a moderate increase from the previous year, when the per capita national debt amounted to about 92,528 U.S. dollars. The total debt accrued by the U.S. annually can be accessed here. Federal debt of the United States The level of national debt held by the United States government has risen sharply in the years following the Great Recession. Federal debt is the amount of debt the federal government owes to creditors who hold assets in the form of debt securities. As with individuals and consumers, there is a common consensus among economists that holding debt is not necessarily problematic for government so long as the public debt is held at a sustainable level. Although there is no agreed upon ratio of debt to gross domestic product, the increasing debt held by the Federal Reserve has become a major part of the political discourse in the United States. Politics and the national debt In recent years, debate over the debt ceiling has been of concern to domestic politicians, the owners of federal debt, and global economy as a whole. The debt ceiling is a legislated maximum amount that national debt can reach intended to impose a degree of fiscal prudence on incumbent governments. However, as national debt has grown the debt ceiling has been reached, thus forcing legislative action by Congress. In both 2011 and 2013, new legislation was passed by Congress allowing the debt ceiling to be raised. The Budget Control Act of 2011 and the No Budget, No Pay Act of 2013 successively allowed the government to avoid defaulting on national debt and therefore avert a potential economic crisis.

A 2023 survey found that 35 percent of Americans do not think that Congress should raise the debt ceiling after the U.S. treasury reached its spending limits in January 2023. The U.S. debt ceiling does not authorize new spending commitments, it simply allows the government to finance existing legal obligations that it has made in the past. If a government does not raise the debt ceiling, the U.S. treasury will default on its debt, and could trigger an economic recession.

This analysis presents a rigorous exploration of financial data, incorporating a diverse range of statistical features. By providing a robust foundation, it facilitates advanced research and innovative modeling techniques within the field of finance.

What happens if us defaults on debt?

Financial data:

• Historical daily stock prices (open, high, low, close, volume)

• Fundamental data (e.g., market capitalization, price to earnings P/E ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share EPS, price to earnings growth, debt-to-equity ratio, price-to-book ratio, current ratio, free cash flow, projected earnings growth, return on equity, dividend payout ratio, price to sales ratio, credit rating)

• Technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD, average directional index, aroon oscillator, stochastic oscillator, on-balance volume, accumulation/distribution A/D line, parabolic SAR indicator, bollinger bands indicators, fibonacci, williams percent range, commodity channel index)

Machine learning features:

• Feature engineering based on financial data and technical indicators

• Sentiment analysis data from social media and news articles

• Macroeconomic data (e.g., GDP, unemployment rate, interest rates, consumer spending, building permits, consumer confidence, inflation, producer price index, money supply, home sales, retail sales, bond yields)

Potential Applications:

• Stock price prediction

• Portfolio optimization

• Algorithmic trading

• Market sentiment analysis

• Risk management

Use Cases:

• Researchers investigating the effectiveness of machine learning in stock market prediction

• Analysts developing quantitative trading Buy/Sell strategies

• Individuals interested in building their own stock market prediction models

• Students learning about machine learning and financial applications

Additional Notes:

• The dataset may include different levels of granularity (e.g., daily, hourly)

• Data cleaning and preprocessing are essential before model training

• Regular updates are recommended to maintain the accuracy and relevance of the data

Graph and download economic data for Number of Foreign Banks That Tightened and Reported That Increase in Defaults by Borrowers in Public Debt Markets Was a Very Important Reason (SUBLPFCIRTDVNQ) from Q3 2000 to Q1 2011 about borrowings, public, foreign, debt, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

Credit card debt in the United States has been growing at a fast pace between 2021 and 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2024, the overall amount of credit card debt reached its highest value throughout the timeline considered here. COVID-19 had a big impact on the indebtedness of Americans, as credit card debt decreased from 927 billion U.S. dollars in the last quarter of 2019 to 770 billion U.S. dollars in the first quarter of 2021. What portion of Americans use credit cards? A substantial portion of Americans had at least one credit card in 2024. That year, the penetration rate of credit cards in the United States was 67 percent. This number increased by nearly seven percentage points since 2014. The primary factors behind the high utilization of credit cards in the United States are a prevalent culture of convenience, a wide range of reward schemes, and consumer preferences for postponed payments. Which companies dominate the credit card issuing market? In 2023, the leading credit card issuers in the U.S. by volume were JPMorgan Chase & Co. and American Express. Both firms recorded transactions worth over one trillion U.S. dollars that year. Citi and Capital One were the next banks in that ranking, with the transactions made with their credit cards amounting to over half a trillion U.S. dollars that year. Those industry giants, along with other prominent brand names in the industry such as Bank of America, Synchrony Financial, Wells Fargo, and others, dominate the credit card market. Due to their extensive customer base, appealing rewards, and competitive offerings, they have gained a significant market share, making them the preferred choice for consumers.

This statistic shows the national debt of Greece from 2020 to 2023, with projections until 2030. In 2023, the national debt in Greece was around 420.4 billion U.S. dollars. In a ranking of debt to GDP per country, Greece is currently ranked third. Greece's struggle after the financial crisis Greece is a developed country in the EU and is highly dependent on its service sector as well as its tourism sector in order to gain profits. After going through a large economic boom from the 1950s to the 1970s as well as somewhat high GDP growth in the early to mid 2000s, Greece’s economy took a turn for the worse and struggled intensively, primarily due to the Great Recession, the Euro crisis as well as its own debt crisis. National debt within the country saw significant gains over the past decades, however roughly came to a halt due to financial rescue packages issued from the European Union in order to help Greece maintain and improve their economical situation. The nation’s continuous rise in debt has overwhelmed its estimated GDP over the years, which can be attributed to poor government execution and unnecessary spending. Large sums of financial aid were taken from major European banks to help balance out these government-induced failures and to potentially help refuel the economy to encourage more spending, which in turn would decrease the country’s continuously rising unemployment rate. Investors, consumers and workers alike are struggling to see a bright future in Greece, whose chances of an economic comeback are much lower than that of other struggling countries such as Portugal and Italy. However, Greece's financial situation might improve in the future, as it is estimated that at least its national debt will decrease - slowly, but steadily. Still, since its future participation in the European Union is in limbo as of now, these figures can only be estimates, not predictions.

This folder contains the required files to replicate the results of the paper "Clustered Sovereign Defaults". Check the readme file for instructions.

The global student debt recovery services market is experiencing significant growth, driven by the escalating burden of student loans worldwide and increasingly sophisticated debt collection strategies. While precise market sizing data is not provided, considering the substantial growth in student loan debt globally and the consequent need for effective recovery services, a reasonable estimate for the 2025 market size could be placed in the range of $5 to $10 billion USD, depending on the specific services included and geographical scope. This market is further segmented by application (schools, banks, government, non-profits) and service type (tuition fee recovery, living expenses recovery, other education-related debt). The high CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) suggests a robust expansion trajectory over the forecast period (2025-2033), likely propelled by factors such as technological advancements in debt collection, stricter regulatory frameworks, and increasing partnerships between lending institutions and recovery service providers. The rising adoption of digital technologies for debt collection, including AI-powered analytics and automation, is significantly improving efficiency and effectiveness. Key players in this sector, including STA International, Cedar Financial, and others, are continuously innovating to optimize their processes and target diverse student loan debt portfolios. Geographical variations exist, with North America and Europe currently holding a substantial market share due to higher student loan debt levels and established debt recovery infrastructures. However, emerging markets in Asia-Pacific and other regions are expected to witness faster growth rates in the coming years due to expanding access to higher education and the concomitant rise in student loan defaults. Despite this positive outlook, challenges remain, including increasing regulatory scrutiny of debt collection practices, economic downturns affecting borrowers' repayment capabilities, and the ethical considerations surrounding aggressive debt collection methods. The market's future growth will hinge on the balance between effective debt recovery and ethical and compliant practices.

The evolution of debt-income ratios over time depends on income growth, inflation, and interest rates, independent of any changes in borrowing. We examine the effect of these "Fisher dynamics" on household debt-income ratios in the United States over the period 1929–2011. Adapting a standard decomposition of public debt to household sector debt, we show that these factors explain, in accounting terms, a large fraction of the changes in household debt-income ratios observed historically. More recently, debt defaults have also been important. Changes in household debt-income ratios over time cannot be straightforwardly interpreted as reflecting shifts in the supply and demand of household credit.

In the first quarter of 2025, roughly **** percent of all consumer loans at commercial banks in the United States were delinquent. The delinquency rate on this type of credit has been rising again since 2021. Loans are delinquent when the borrower does not pay their obligations on time. One of the reasons for the delinquency rate decreasing during the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic was that the personal saving rate in the U.S. soared during that period. What is the trend in consumer credit levels in the United States? Consumer credit refers to the various types of loans and credit extended to individuals for personal use, often to fund everyday purchases or larger expenses. When credit levels rise, it often signals that consumers are more confident in their ability to manage debt and make future payments. After a period of strong growth between 2021 and early 2023, consumer credit in the United States has been growing at a slower pace. By early 2024, consumer credit levels reached over **** trillion U.S. dollars. What is the main channel for acquiring consumer credit? In 2024, the leading type of consumer credit among consumers in the U.S. was credit card bills. Credit card usage in the North American country was substantial and credit card penetration was expected to reach over **** percent by 2029. Car loans ranked next as a common source of consumer credit, while other types of debt, such as medical bills, home equity lines of credit, and personal educational loans, had lower percentages.

Graph and download economic data for Number of Domestic Banks That Eased and Reported That Reduction in Defaults by Borrowers in Public Debt Markets Was a Very Important Reason (SUBLPDCIREDVNQ) from Q3 2000 to Q1 2011 about ease, borrowings, public, debt, domestic, banks, depository institutions, and USA.

The educational debt recovery services market is experiencing robust growth, driven by the escalating cost of higher education and increasing student loan defaults globally. The market, estimated at $10 billion in 2025, is projected to exhibit a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8% from 2025 to 2033, reaching approximately $18 billion by 2033. This growth is fueled by several key factors. Firstly, the rising number of students pursuing higher education, coupled with limited financial aid options, is contributing to a significant increase in student loan debt. Secondly, the shift towards outcome-based funding models in higher education incentivizes institutions to pursue more rigorous debt recovery strategies. Thirdly, the increasing sophistication of debt recovery technologies, including AI-powered solutions for efficient identification and engagement of defaulters, further enhances the market's expansion. The market is segmented by application (Higher Education, Vocational Education and Training, Basic Education and Special Education, Others) and type of collection (Non-litigation Collection, Litigation Collection). North America currently holds the largest market share due to its high student loan debt levels and established debt recovery infrastructure, followed by Europe and Asia Pacific. However, growth in emerging economies like India and China is expected to significantly contribute to the market's expansion in the coming years. Challenges include stringent regulations surrounding debt collection practices and the ethical considerations associated with aggressive recovery methods. Nevertheless, the market presents significant opportunities for companies specializing in innovative and ethical debt recovery solutions. The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of large multinational corporations and smaller specialized firms. Companies like STA International, Cedar Financial, and Legal Recoveries are prominent players, competing on the basis of technological capabilities, recovery rates, and geographic reach. The market is expected to witness further consolidation as larger firms acquire smaller players to expand their service offerings and market reach. The increasing use of technology and data analytics to improve efficiency and recovery rates will continue to reshape the competitive landscape. The focus on ethical and compliant debt recovery practices is becoming increasingly crucial, given growing public scrutiny and regulatory oversight in this sector. Strategic partnerships between educational institutions and debt recovery firms are also expected to gain momentum, optimizing debt recovery processes and minimizing financial losses for institutions.

Ethiopia external debt for 2023 was 33.29 billion US dollars, a 8.66% increase from 2022.

<ul style='margin-top:20px;'>

<li>Ethiopia external debt for 2022 was <strong>30.64 billion US dollars</strong>, a <strong>4.26% decline</strong> from 2021.</li>
<li>Ethiopia external debt for 2021 was <strong>32.00 billion US dollars</strong>, a <strong>1.12% decline</strong> from 2020.</li>
<li>Ethiopia external debt for 2020 was <strong>32.36 billion US dollars</strong>, a <strong>6.54% increase</strong> from 2019.</li>
</ul>Total external debt is debt owed to nonresidents repayable in currency, goods, or services. Total external debt is the sum of public, publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed long-term debt, use of IMF credit, and short-term debt. Short-term debt includes all debt having an original maturity of one year or less and interest in arrears on long-term debt. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

The Educational Debt Recovery Services market is experiencing significant growth, driven by the escalating costs of higher education and the increasing number of student loan defaults globally. The market's expansion is fueled by several factors, including the rising adoption of sophisticated debt recovery technologies, the increasing collaboration between educational institutions and debt collection agencies, and a growing awareness among lenders of the need for efficient debt recovery strategies. While the exact market size in 2025 is unavailable, considering a plausible CAGR of 8% (based on industry averages for similar financial services sectors), and estimating a 2024 market value of $10 billion (a reasonable figure considering the substantial student loan debt globally), the 2025 market size could be approximately $10.8 billion. This figure is projected to grow substantially over the forecast period (2025-2033), driven by continued expansion in higher education enrollment, government regulations aimed at improving debt recovery processes, and the rising prevalence of alternative financing options in education that also contribute to the debt pool. Segmentation within the market reveals robust growth across all educational levels—higher education, vocational education, and basic education—with higher education representing a substantial portion due to higher tuition costs and longer repayment periods. The non-litigation collection segment dominates due to its cost-effectiveness and efficiency. Geographically, North America and Europe are currently leading the market, but significant growth opportunities exist in Asia-Pacific regions driven by rising middle-class populations and increased access to higher education. However, challenges remain, including stringent regulations surrounding debt collection practices, economic downturns impacting repayment capabilities, and the ethical concerns surrounding aggressive debt collection tactics, acting as restraints on market growth. Companies operating within the market are constantly evolving their strategies to enhance recovery rates and manage reputational risks associated with student loan debt recovery.

United States LS: Deterioration of Banks Liquidty Poistion (DB): Not Important data was reported at 75.000 % in Oct 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 80.000 % for Jul 2018. United States LS: Deterioration of Banks Liquidty Poistion (DB): Not Important data is updated quarterly, averaging 87.500 % from Jan 2008 (Median) to Oct 2018, with 44 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in Jul 2015 and a record low of 20.000 % in Apr 2011. United States LS: Deterioration of Banks Liquidty Poistion (DB): Not Important data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S027: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: Lending Policies: Reason for Credit Tightening. Senior Loan Officer Survey Questionnaire: If your bank has tightened its credit standards or its terms for C&I loans or credit lines over the past three months, how important have been the increase in borrowers default in debt market for the change?

United States Loan Officer Survey: DB: Very Important data was reported at 11.100 % in Apr 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.000 % for Jan 2018. United States Loan Officer Survey: DB: Very Important data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.950 % from Jan 2008 (Median) to Apr 2018, with 42 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 25.000 % in Oct 2013 and a record low of 0.000 % in Jan 2018. United States Loan Officer Survey: DB: Very Important data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.KA041: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: Lending Policies: Reason for Credit Tightening. Senior Loan Officer Survey Questionnaire: If your bank has tightened its credit standards or its terms for C&I loans or credit lines over the past three months, how important have been the increase in borrowers default in debt market for the change?

In 2022, the student loan default rate in the United States was highest for Black borrowers, at 34.4 percent. In comparison, Asian borrowers were least likely to default on their student loans.

Loan Officer Survey: DB Large Banks: Very Important data was reported at 0.000 % in Apr 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 % for Jan 2018. Loan Officer Survey: DB Large Banks: Very Important data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.000 % from Jan 2008 (Median) to Apr 2018, with 40 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20.000 % in Oct 2010 and a record low of 0.000 % in Apr 2018. Loan Officer Survey: DB Large Banks: Very Important data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.KA041: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: Lending Policies: Reason for Credit Tightening. Senior Loan Officer Survey Questionnaire: If your bank has tightened its credit standards or its terms for C&I loans or credit lines over the past three months, how important have been the increase in borrowers default in debt market for the change?

United States Loan Officer Survey: DB Other Banks: Not Important data was reported at 40.000 % in Apr 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 80.000 % for Jan 2018. United States Loan Officer Survey: DB Other Banks: Not Important data is updated quarterly, averaging 86.100 % from Jan 2008 (Median) to Apr 2018, with 42 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in Apr 2016 and a record low of 0.000 % in Apr 2011. United States Loan Officer Survey: DB Other Banks: Not Important data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.KA041: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: Lending Policies: Reason for Credit Tightening. Senior Loan Officer Survey Questionnaire: If your bank has tightened its credit standards or its terms for C&I loans or credit lines over the past three months, how important have been the increase in borrowers default in debt market for the change?