United States Excess Deaths: Above Expected: Texas data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths: Above Expected: Texas data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2,674.000 Number in 16 Jan 2021 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths: Above Expected: Texas data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G010: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes (Discontinued).

Effective September 27, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from wonder.cdc.gov. Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected. Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). For each jurisdiction, a model is used to generate a set of expected counts, and the upper bound of the 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI) of these expected counts is used as a threshold to estimate excess deaths. Observed counts are compared to these upper bound estimates to determine whether a significant increase in deaths has occurred. Provisional counts are weighted to account for potential underreporting in the most recent weeks. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Only about 60% of deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, and there is considerable variation by jurisdiction. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.

In 2020, the U.S. had the highest COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate among non-elderly people compared to other peer countries. “Excess deaths” represent the number of deaths beyond what is expected in a typical year. This measure illustrates the mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This statistic presents the COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate in the U.S. and select countries in 2020, by age group (per 100,000 people in age group).

United States Excess Deaths: Above Expected: Alabama data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths: Above Expected: Alabama data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 679.000 Number in 11 Sep 2021 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. United States Excess Deaths: Above Expected: Alabama data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G010: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes (Discontinued).

Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data was reported at 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 1,195.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data is updated weekly, averaging 1,195.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 1,195.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Excess Est: Wyoming data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

It is estimated that by the end of 2021 the COVID-19 pandemic had caused around 932,458 excess deaths in the United States. This statistic shows the cumulative mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in 2020-2021, by month.

MMWR Surveillance Summary 66 (No. SS-1):1-8 found that nonmetropolitan areas have significant numbers of potentially excess deaths from the five leading causes of death. These figures accompany this report by presenting information on potentially excess deaths in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan areas at the state level. They also add additional years of data and options for selecting different age ranges and benchmarks. Potentially excess deaths are defined in MMWR Surveillance Summary 66(No. SS-1):1-8 as deaths that exceed the numbers that would be expected if the death rates of states with the lowest rates (benchmarks) occurred across all states. They are calculated by subtracting expected deaths for specific benchmarks from observed deaths. Not all potentially excess deaths can be prevented; some areas might have characteristics that predispose them to higher rates of death. However, many potentially excess deaths might represent deaths that could be prevented through improved public health programs that support healthier behaviors and neighborhoods or better access to health care services. Mortality data for U.S. residents come from the National Vital Statistics System. Estimates based on fewer than 10 observed deaths are not shown and shaded yellow on the map. Underlying cause of death is based on the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) Heart disease (I00-I09, I11, I13, and I20–I51) Cancer (C00–C97) Unintentional injury (V01–X59 and Y85–Y86) Chronic lower respiratory disease (J40–J47) Stroke (I60–I69) Locality (nonmetropolitan vs. metropolitan) is based on the Office of Management and Budget’s 2013 county-based classification scheme. Benchmarks are based on the three states with the lowest age and cause-specific mortality rates. Potentially excess deaths for each state are calculated by subtracting deaths at the benchmark rates (expected deaths) from observed deaths. Users can explore three benchmarks: “2010 Fixed” is a fixed benchmark based on the best performing States in 2010. “2005 Fixed” is a fixed benchmark based on the best performing States in 2005. “Floating” is based on the best performing States in each year so change from year to year. SOURCES CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System, mortality data (see http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/deaths.htm); and CDC WONDER (see http://wonder.cdc.gov). REFERENCES Moy E, Garcia MC, Bastian B, Rossen LM, Ingram DD, Faul M, Massetti GM, Thomas CC, Hong Y, Yoon PW, Iademarco MF. Leading Causes of Death in Nonmetropolitan and Metropolitan Areas – United States, 1999-2014. MMWR Surveillance Summary 2017; 66(No. SS-1):1-8. Garcia MC, Faul M, Massetti G, Thomas CC, Hong Y, Bauer UE, Iademarco MF. Reducing Potentially Excess Deaths from the Five Leading Causes of Death in the Rural United States. MMWR Surveillance Summary 2017; 66(No. SS-2):1–7.

Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Arkansas data was reported at 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 23 Oct 2021. Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Arkansas data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 30 Oct 2021, with 251 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 93.000 Number in 07 Aug 2021 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 30 Oct 2021. Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Above Expected: Arkansas data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

It is estimated that from 2020 to 2021, the mean rate of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes was highest in Peru. In 2020-2021, there were around 437 excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic per 100,000 population in Peru. This statistic shows the mean number of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic from all-causes in 2020-2021 in select countries worldwide, per 100,000 population.

In 2020, COVID-19 deaths accounted for a majority of all excess deaths in the U.S. across all age groups. This share increased with age, so that COVID-19 deaths attributed to more than two-thirds of excess deaths among those 75 years and older. This statistic illustrates COVID-19 deaths as share of excess deaths in the U.S. in 2020, by age group.

United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Avg No. of Deaths: Maine data was reported at 313.000 Number in 08 Jan 2022. This stayed constant from the previous number of 313.000 Number for 01 Jan 2022. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Avg No. of Deaths: Maine data is updated weekly, averaging 291.500 Number from Jan 2017 to 08 Jan 2022, with 262 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 317.000 Number in 16 Mar 2019 and a record low of 266.000 Number in 18 Aug 2018. United States Excess Deaths excl COVID: Predicted: Avg No. of Deaths: Maine data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G014: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted.

In 2020, the highest COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rate was among older Hispanics. “Excess deaths” represent the number of deaths beyond what is expected in a typical year. This measure illustrates the mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. This statistic presents COVID-19 pandemic-related excess mortality rates in the U.S. in 2020, by age group and ethnicity.

For the week ending August 29, 2025, weekly deaths in England and Wales were 985 below the number expected, compared with 855 below what was expected in the previous week. In late 2022 and through early 2023, excess deaths were elevated for a number of weeks, with the excess deaths figure for the week ending January 13, 2023, the highest since February 2021. In the middle of April 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, there were almost 12,000 excess deaths a week recorded in England and Wales. It was not until two months later, in the week ending June 19, 2020, that the number of deaths began to be lower than the five-year average for the corresponding week. Most deaths since 1918 in 2020 In 2020, there were 689,629 deaths in the United Kingdom, making that year the deadliest since 1918, at the height of the Spanish influenza pandemic. As seen in the excess death figures, April 2020 was by far the worst month in terms of deaths during the pandemic. The weekly number of deaths for weeks 16 and 17 of that year were 22,351, and 21,997 respectively. Although the number of deaths fell to more usual levels for the rest of that year, a winter wave of the disease led to a high number of deaths in January 2021, with 18,676 deaths recorded in the fourth week of that year. For the whole of 2021, there were 667,479 deaths in the UK, 22,150 fewer than in 2020. Life expectancy in the UK goes into reverse In 2022, life expectancy at birth for women in the UK was 82.6 years, while for men it was 78.6 years. This was the lowest life expectancy in the country for ten years, and came after life expectancy improvements stalled throughout the 2010s, and then declined from 2020 onwards. There is also quite a significant regional difference in life expectancy in the UK. In the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, for example, the life expectancy for men was 81.5 years, and 86.5 years for women. By contrast, in Blackpool, in North West England, male life expectancy was just 73.1 years, while for women, life expectancy was lowest in Glasgow, at 78 years.

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data was reported at 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 20,737.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data is updated weekly, averaging 20,737.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023 and a record low of 20,737.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Total Estimate: Florida data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).

Daily updates of Covid-19 Global Excess Deaths from the Economist's GitHub repository: https://github.com/TheEconomist/covid-19-the-economist-global-excess-deaths-model

Interpreting estimates

Estimating excess deaths for every country every day since the pandemic began is a complex and difficult task. Rather than being overly confident in a single number, limited data means that we can often only give a very very wide range of plausible values. Focusing on central estimates in such cases would be misleading: unless ranges are very narrow, the 95% range should be reported when possible. The ranges assume that the conditions for bootstrap confidence intervals are met. Please see our tracker page and methodology for more information.

New variants

The Omicron variant, first detected in southern Africa in November 2021, appears to have characteristics that are different to earlier versions of sars-cov-2. Where this variant is now dominant, this change makes estimates uncertain beyond the ranges indicated. Other new variants may do the same. As more data is incorporated from places where new variants are dominant, predictions improve.

Non-reporting countries

Turkmenistan and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have not reported any covid-19 figures since the start of the pandemic. They also have not published all-cause mortality data. Exports of estimates for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea have been temporarily disabled as it now issues contradictory data: reporting a significant outbreak through its state media, but zero confirmed covid-19 cases/deaths to the WHO.

Acknowledgements

A special thanks to all our sources and to those who have made the data to create these estimates available. We list all our sources in our methodology. Within script 1, the source for each variable is also given as the data is loaded, with the exception of our sources for excess deaths data, which we detail in on our free-to-read excess deaths tracker as well as on GitHub. The gradient booster implementation used to fit the models is aGTBoost, detailed here.

Calculating excess deaths for the entire world over multiple years is both complex and imprecise. We welcome any suggestions on how to improve the model, be it data, algorithm, or logic. If you have one, please open an issue.

The Economist would also like to acknowledge the many people who have helped us refine the model so far, be it through discussions, facilitating data access, or offering coding assistance. A special thanks to Ariel Karlinsky, Philip Schellekens, Oliver Watson, Lukas Appelhans, Berent Å. S. Lunde, Gideon Wakefield, Johannes Hunger, Carol D'Souza, Yun Wei, Mehran Hosseini, Samantha Dolan, Mollie Van Gordon, Rahul Arora, Austin Teda Atmaja, Dirk Eddelbuettel and Tom Wenseleers.

All coding and data collection to construct these models (and make them update dynamically) was done by Sondre Ulvund Solstad. Should you have any questions about them after reading the methodology, please open an issue or contact him at sondresolstad@economist.com.

Suggested citation The Economist and Solstad, S. (corresponding author), 2021. The pandemic’s true death toll. [online] The Economist. Available at: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates [Accessed ---]. First published in the article "Counting the dead", The Economist, issue 20, 2021.

Content

This data represents excess deaths in an area (more deaths than expected). Although causes are recorded, one can see that excess deaths increased dramatically in 2020.

Acknowledgements

Original Source: https://catalog.data.gov/dataset/excess-deaths-associated-with-covid-19-35b8c

Inspiration

Using the Excess Death counts, make predictions, per day, as to what the hospital case load, and death load, for covid cases will be. Can use any source (local, federal, international) as the benchmark.

Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods. This visualization provides weekly estimates of excess deaths by the jurisdiction in which the death occurred. Weekly counts of deaths are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.Counts of deaths from all causes of death, including COVID-19, are presented. As some deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not diagnosed or not mentioned on the death certificate), tracking all-cause mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be undercounted. Additionally, deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19 were also estimated. Comparing these two sets of estimates — excess deaths with and without COVID-19 — can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are reported as due to other causes of death. These deaths could represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths, or potentially could be indirectly related to the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., deaths from other causes occurring in the context of health care shortages or overburdened health care systems).Estimates of excess deaths can be calculated in a variety of ways, and will vary depending on the methodology and assumptions about how many deaths are expected to occur. Estimates of excess deaths presented in this webpage were calculated using Farrington surveillance algorithms (1). A range of values for the number of excess deaths was calculated as the difference between the observed count and one of two thresholds (either the average expected count or the upper bound of the 95% prediction interval), by week and jurisdiction.Provisional death counts are weighted to account for incomplete data. However, data for the most recent week(s) are still likely to be incomplete. Weights are based on completeness of provisional data in prior years, but the timeliness of data may have changed in 2020 relative to prior years, so the resulting weighted estimates may be too high in some jurisdictions and too low in others. As more information about the accuracy of the weighted estimates is obtained, further refinements to the weights may be made, which will impact the estimates. Any changes to the methods or weighting algorithm will be noted in the Technical Notes when they occur. More detail about the methods, weighting, data, and limitations can be found in the Technical Notes.This visualization includes several different estimates:Number of excess deaths: A range of estimates for the number of excess deaths was calculated as the difference between the observed count and one of two thresholds (either the average expected count or the upper bound threshold), by week and jurisdiction. Negative values, where the observed count fell below the threshold, were set to zero.Percent excess: The percent excess was defined as the number of excess deaths divided by the threshold.Total number of excess deaths: The total number of excess deaths in each jurisdiction was calculated by summing the excess deaths in each week, from February 1, 2020 to present. Similarly, the total number of excess deaths for the US overall was computed as a sum of jurisdiction-specific numbers of excess deaths (with negative values set to zero), and not directly estimated using the Farrington surveillance algorithms.Select a dashboard from the menu, then click on “Update Dashboard” to navigate through the different graphics.The first dashboard shows the weekly predicted counts of deaths from all causes, and the threshold for the expected number of deaths. Select a jurisdiction from the drop-down menu to show data for that jurisdiction.The second dashboard shows the weekly predicted counts of deaths from all causes and the weekly count of deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19. Select a jurisdiction from the drop-down menu to show data for that jurisdiction.The th

United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data was reported at 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Number for 09 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data is updated weekly, averaging 0.000 Number from Jan 2017 (Median) to 16 Sep 2023, with 350 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 209.000 Number in 13 Jan 2018 and a record low of 0.000 Number in 16 Sep 2023. United States Excess Death excl COVID: Predicted: Single Excess Est: Massachusetts data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G012: Number of Excess Deaths: by States: All Causes excluding COVID-19: Predicted (Discontinued).