Dataset Description

This dataset contains the actual and predicted federal funds target rate for the United States from 1990 to 2023. The federal funds target rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence the economy.

The dataset includes the following five columns:

Release Date: The date on which the data was released by the Federal Reserve. Time: The time of day at which the data was released. Actual: The actual federal funds target rate. Predicted: The predicted federal funds target rate. Forecast: The forecast federal funds target rate.

Data Usage

This dataset can be used for a variety of purposes, including: - Analyzing trends in the federal funds target rate over time. - Forecasting the future path of the federal funds target rate. - Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy. - Data Quality

The data for this dataset is of high quality. The Federal Reserve is a reputable source of data and the data is updated regularly.

Data Limitations

The data for this dataset is limited to the United States. Additionally, the data does not include information on the factors that influenced the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to set the federal funds target rate.

View data of the Effective Federal Funds Rate, or the interest rate depository institutions charge each other for overnight loans of funds.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Oct 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Japan was last recorded at 0.50 percent. This dataset provides - Japan Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

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To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

https:/...

The benchmark interest rate In the Euro Area was last recorded at 2.15 percent. This dataset provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in India was last recorded at 5.50 percent. This dataset provides - India Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Context

Real time prices in the diamond market are reflected by the so-called Diamond Financial Index (DFX) which is available on a daily base since April 2018.

As diamond prices are influenced by many factors like trade barriers, political instability, operational disruptions like mine closures or economic downturns resp. upturns, it is not an easy task to predict the development of future diamond prices.

To predict prices, indicators are needed. Empirical findings support the argument that diamond prices respond to economic downturns resp. upturns and are therefore also correlated with inflation rates and interest rates resp. fed rates. Also gold prices could be an indicator for the development of diamond prices.

Because the US are playing quite a big role in the diamond business, the following US rates can be considered:

o inflation rate (10-year breakeven inflation rate) o interest rate (10-year treasury inflation-indexed security, constant maturity, risk-free) o fed rate (effective federal funds rate)

Moreover, gold prices could be considered as an indicator.

Content

The following five datasets have been downloaded from the following websites and merged to one dataset:

o diamond price (DFX): https://www.investing.com/indices/get-diamonds-general o inflation rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE o interest rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10 o fed rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFF o gold price: https://www.boerse-online.de/rohstoffe/historisch/goldpreis/usd/

To merge the datasets, date has been used as index. A few missing values in the datasets have been filled in by copying the value from the day before (see file "diamond_data_merged_with_other_variables.csv").

Please note: I added one additional version of the dataset where ID is used as index (not date). Missing values are not filled in in this version (see file "df_diamond_data_merged_with_other_variables.csv"). I would recommend using the dataset "diamond_data_merged_with_other_variables.csv" with date as index.

Inspiration

The following questions could be answered:

o How did diamond prices, inflation rate, interest rate, fed rate and gold price develop since 2018? o How is the correlation between diamond prices and inflation rate, interest rate, fed rate and gold prices? o How will diamond prices develop in the future?

When it comes to price prediction machine learning has been successful in predicting stock market prices through a host of different time series models. There is also a limited but quite restrictive application in predicting cryptocurrency prices. Often neural networks like LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) are used. LSTM oder other models, e.g. ARIMA, could be also used here.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Gross Fixed Investment on Residential Construction; Chain Weights, Level (BOGZ1FL075012003A) from 1945 to 2024 about fixed, investment, gross, equipment, residential, interest rate, interest, price index, rate, indexes, price, and USA.

The benchmark interest rate in Turkey was last recorded at 39.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - Turkey Interest Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Mexico was last recorded at 7.25 percent. This dataset provides - Mexico Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in the United Kingdom was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides - United Kingdom Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The benchmark interest rate in Indonesia was last recorded at 4.75 percent. This dataset provides - Indonesia Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (RIFLGFCY30NA) from 1977 to 2024 about 30-year, maturity, investment, yield, securities, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Revenue growth for the Finance and Insurance sector has varied in recent years, as a result of differing economic trends. The sector plays a vital role in facilitating necessary financial transactions between consumers, businesses and government agencies. The core services provided by operators in this sector include providing insurance products needed by businesses and consumers to legally operate corporations and assets. These services include offering, borrowing and depository services needed to finance new projects and investing to create and preserve investors' assets. A wide range of operators in the sector benefited from improving macroeconomic conditions over the past five years. For example, the Fed increased interest rates to curb historically high inflation throughout the period. Although higher interest rates increased investment income from fixed-income securities, higher rates have limited loan and mortgage demand due to elevated borrowing rates. In the latter part of the period, the Fed cut interest rates, enabling consumer to borrow money at lower interest rates which will increase loan demand. Although reduced rates will hinder investment income from debt securities. In addition, the growing prevalence of emerging technologies such as AI and data analytics tools have streamlined operations and helped reduce operational costs. These tools help industry companies identify trends and potential risks more efficiently. Also, the emergence and growth in popularity of alternative asset classes such as cryptocurrencies and event contracts in prediction markets has driven demand and transaction volumes, supporting revenue growth. Over the past five years, industry revenue grew at a CAGR of 3.5% to $7,303.1 billion, including a 1.5% jump in 2025 alone. Industry profit has also climbed and will account for an estimated 28.5% of revenue in the current year. During the outlook period, sector revenue will increase at a CAGR of 2.1% to $8,088.7 billion over the five years to 2030. As the economy continues to improve, per capita disposable income is expected to increase. This will likely lead to increased financial activity by consumers, which will likely be processed and facilitated by operators in the sector. The Federal Reserve is also anticipated to cut interest rates at the onset of the period. Reduced interest rates will decrease interest income for operators but will increase the volume of loans. In addition, the acquisition of financial technology start-ups to compete in a changing technological and financial environment will increase.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Gross Fixed Investment on Residential Construction; Chain Weights, Level (BOGZ1FL075012003Q) from Q4 1945 to Q2 2025 about fixed, investment, gross, equipment, residential, interest rate, interest, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

Strong returns in various financial markets and increased trading volumes have benefited businesses in the industry. Companies provide underwriting, brokering and market-making services for different financial instruments, including bonds, stocks and derivatives. Businesses benefited from improving macroeconomic conditions despite the high-interest-rate environment for most of the period due to inflationary pressures. However, the anticipation of interest rate cuts in the current year can limit interest income from fixed-income securities. As interest rates fall, fixed income securities will experience an outflow of capital and equities will experience an inflow of funds. The Fed is monitoring inflation, employment figures and the effects of tariffs along with other economic factors before making rate cut decisions. Overall, revenue has been growing at a CAGR of 8.5% to $491.0 billion over the past five years, including an expected increase of 1.8% in 2025 alone. Industry profit has grown during the same time due to greater interest income from bonds and will comprise 16.2% of revenue in the current year. While many industries struggled at the onset of the period due to economic disruptions stemming from the volatile economic environment and supply chain issues, businesses benefited from the volatility. Primarily, companies have benefited from increased trading activity on behalf of their clients due to fluctuations in asset prices. This has led to higher trade execution fees for firms at the onset of the period. Similarly, debt underwriting increased as many businesses have turned to investment bankers to help raise cash for various ventures. Also, improved scalability of operations, especially regarding trading services conducted by securities intermediaries, has helped increase industry profits. Structural changes have forced the industry's smaller businesses to evolve. Because competing in trading services requires massive investments in technology and compliance, boutique investment banks have alternatively focused on advising in merger and acquisition (M&A) activity. Boutique investment banks' total share of M&A revenue is forecast to grow through the end of 2030. Furthermore, the industry will benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions as inflationary pressures are expected to ease. This will help asset values rise and interest rate levels to be cut, thus allowing operators to generate more from equity underwriting and lending activities. Overall, revenue is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 1.4% to $526.8 billion over the five years to 2030.

The U.S. bank prime loan rate has undergone significant fluctuations over the past three decades, reflecting broader economic trends and monetary policy decisions. From a high of **** percent in 1990, the rate has seen periods of decline, stability, and recent increases. As of October 2025, the prime rate stood at **** percent, marking a notable rise from the historic lows seen in the early 2020s. Federal Reserve's impact on lending rates The prime rate's trajectory closely mirrors changes in the federal funds rate, which serves as a key benchmark for the U.S. financial system. In 2023, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of rate hikes, pushing the federal funds target range to ******** percent by year-end. This was followed by several rate cuts in 2024, with the target range standing at 4.25 to 4.5 percent in December 2024. The aggressive monetary tightening in 2023 was aimed at combating rising inflation, and its effects rippled through various lending rates, including the prime rate. Long-term investment outlook While short-term rates have risen, long-term investment yields have also seen changes. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a benchmark for long-term interest rates, showed an average market yield of **** percent in the second quarter of 2024, adjusted for constant maturity and inflation. This figure represents a recovery from negative real returns seen in 2021, reflecting shifting expectations for economic growth and inflation. The evolving yield environment has implications for both borrowers and investors, influencing decisions across the financial landscape.

During periods of rising policy rates, the performance of private credit investments appears to outperform other asset classes. During the latest Fed funds rates hikes between the end of 2021 and the second half of 2023, private credit investments returns were as high as ** percent. Private credit investments usually feature floating interest rates. This can boost returns when interest rates rise, but may lower potential returns when rates fall.

The interest rate at which U.S. banks lend reserve balances to each other overnight. It is the Federal Reserve’s primary tool for guiding short-term interest rates and influencing overall economic activity. Changes in the federal funds rate affect borrowing costs for consumers and businesses, shaping spending, investment, and inflation.