The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Effective Federal Funds Rate in the United States increased to 3.89 percent on Friday November 28 from 3.88 in the previous day. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Effective Federal Funds Rate.

The 'Fed Interest Rate Decision' is an economic event where the Federal Reserve announces changes to the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight.-2025-07-30

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Midpoint (FEDTARRM) from 2025 to 2028 about projection, federal, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Federal Funds Effective Rate (RIFSPFFNA) from 1955 to 2024 about funds, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

United States - Federal Funds Effective Rate was 4.09% in October of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Federal Funds Effective Rate reached a record high of 19.10 in June of 1981 and a record low of 0.05 in April of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Federal Funds Effective Rate - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

View daily updates and historical trends for Target Federal Funds Rate Upper Limit. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve. Track economic data with …

Interest Rates, Discount Rate for United States was 0.25000 % per Annum in August of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Interest Rates, Discount Rate for United States reached a record high of 14.00000 in June of 1981 and a record low of 0.25000 in March of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Interest Rates, Discount Rate for United States - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

View market daily updates and historical trends for Overnight Federal Funds Rate. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve. Track economic data with YC…

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates, Discount Rate for United States (INTDSRUSM193N) from Jan 1950 to Aug 2021 about discount, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

United States - Effective Federal Funds Rate: 1st Percentile was 3.84% in November of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Effective Federal Funds Rate: 1st Percentile reached a record high of 5.31 in December of 2023 and a record low of 0.01 in March of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Effective Federal Funds Rate: 1st Percentile - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 2.400 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.400 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.000 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.900 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

Source is Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/"NAME OF MEASURE" Column names are "Name of Measure" from FRED's catalog.

Group 1: Yield Curve Indicators These focus on the shape of the Treasury yield curve, comparing longer-term to shorter-term rates. They are primarily used to: Signal Economic Expectations: A normal curve (longer-term rates higher) suggests expectations of growth and possibly inflation. A flattening or inverted curve (short-term rates near or above long-term) could signal a potential slowdown or recession.

Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Expectations These spreads look at the difference between Treasury yields and the Federal Funds Rate, the primary tool of monetary policy. They indicate: Market vs. Fed Outlook: Widening spreads could suggest the market expects faster rate hikes or higher long-term inflation than the Fed is signaling. Narrowing spreads could mean the opposite. Risk-Taking: When these spreads widen, it can be a sign of investors moving from safe Treasuries to riskier assets in search of yield.

Group 3: Credit Risk and Market Sentiment These spreads focus on corporate bond yields relative to Treasuries, highlighting the added compensation investors require for holding riskier corporate debt. They signal: Credit Conditions: Widening spreads suggest deteriorating credit conditions or lower risk tolerance among investors. Narrowing spreads suggest the opposite. Economic Confidence: Investors often demand higher premiums for corporate bonds during economic uncertainty, widening these spreads.

Group 4: Breakeven Inflation Rates The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation derived from 30-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_30YEAR) and 30-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities (TC_30YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect inflation to be in the next 30 years, on average.

Context

Daily historical federal (Fed) interest rates in the United States ranging from 1954 to the present.

Values represent percentage and might need converted into decimal format. ie 1.07 designates 1.07%.

Acknowledgements

Source is www.macrotrends.com

Inspiration

I use this as a reference in conjunction with other economic data and indicators.

U.S. Economic and Financial Dataset

Dataset Description

This dataset combines historical U.S. economic and financial indicators, spanning the last 50 years, to facilitate time series analysis and uncover patterns in macroeconomic trends. It is designed for exploring relationships between interest rates, inflation, economic growth, stock market performance, and industrial production.

Key Features

• Frequency: Monthly
• Time Period: Last 50 years from Nov-24
• Sources:
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
  • Yahoo Finance

Dataset Feature Description

1. Interest Rate (Interest_Rate):

   • The effective federal funds rate, representing the interest rate at which depository institutions trade federal funds overnight.

2. Inflation (Inflation):

   • The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers, an indicator of inflation trends.

3. GDP (GDP):

   • Real GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the U.S.

4. Unemployment Rate (Unemployment):

   • The percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work.

5. Stock Market Performance (S&P500):

   • Monthly average of the adjusted close price, representing stock market trends.

6. Industrial Production (Ind_Prod):

   • A measure of real output in the industrial sector, including manufacturing, mining, and utilities.

Dataset Statistics

1. Total Entries: 599
2. Columns: 6
3. Memory usage: 37.54 kB
4. Data types: float64

Feature Overview

• Columns:
  • Interest_Rate: Monthly Federal Funds Rate (%)
  • Inflation: CPI (All Urban Consumers, Index)
  • GDP: Real GDP (Billions of Chained 2012 Dollars)
  • Unemployment: Unemployment Rate (%)
  • Ind_Prod: Industrial Production Index (2017=100)
  • S&P500: Monthly Average of S&P 500 Adjusted Close Prices

Executive Summary

This project explores the interconnected dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators and financial market trends over the past 50 years, leveraging data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and Yahoo Finance. The dataset integrates critical variables such as the Federal Funds Rate, Inflation (CPI), Real GDP, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, and the S&P 500 Index, providing a holistic view of the U.S. economy and financial markets.

The analysis focuses on uncovering relationships between these variables through time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition. Key findings are included in the Insights section. This project serves as a robust resource for understanding long-term economic trends, policy impacts, and market behavior. It is particularly valuable for students, researchers, policymakers, and financial analysts seeking to connect macroeconomic theory with real-world data.

Potential Use Cases

• Economic Analysis: Examine relationships between interest rates, inflation, GDP, and unemployment.
• Stock Market Prediction: Study how macroeconomic indicators influence stock market trends.
• Time Series Modeling: Perform ARIMA, VAR, or other models to forecast economic trends.
• Cyclic Pattern Analysis: Identify how economic shocks and recoveries impact key indicators.

Snap of Power Analysis

https://github.com/user-attachments/assets/1b40e0ca-7d2e-4fbc-8cfd-df3f09e4fdb8">

To ensure sufficient power, the dataset covers last 50 years of monthly data i.e., around 600 entries.

Key Insights derived through EDA, time-series visualization, correlation analysis, and trend decomposition

• Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics: The interest Rate and inflation exhibit an inverse relationship, especially during periods of aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.
• Economic Growth and Market Performance: GDP growth and the S&P 500 Index show a positive correlation, reflecting how market performance often aligns with overall economic health.
• Labor Market and Industrial Output: Unemployment and industrial production demonstrate a strong inverse relationship. Higher industrial output is typically associated with lower unemployment
• Market Behavior During Economic Shocks: The S&P 500 experienced sharp declines during significant crises, such as the 2008 financial crash and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. These events also triggered increased unemployment and contractions in GDP, highlighting the interplay between markets and the broader economy.
• Correlation Highlights: S&P 500 and GDP have a strong positive correlation. Interest rates negatively correlate with GDP and inflation, reflecting monetary policy impacts. Unemployment is negatively correlated with industrial production but positively correlated with interest rates.

Link to GitHub Repo

https:/...

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates and Price Indexes; Effective Federal Funds Rate (Percent), Level (BOGZ1FL072052006A) from 1954 to 2024 about federal, assets, interest rate, interest, rate, price index, indexes, price, and USA.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low was 2.60% in January of 2028, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High was 3.90% in March of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High reached a record high of 4.30 in June of 2015 and a record low of 3.00 in December of 2017. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

Daily US Federal Reserve policy rates including EFFR, IORB, and Fed Funds target rates

Graph and download economic data for Effective Federal Funds Rate: 99th Percentile (EFFR99) from 2016-03-01 to 2025-11-06 about percentile, federal, rate, and USA.