The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint (PCECTPICTMLR) from 2009-02-18 to 2025-06-18 about projection, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Median (GDPC1MDLR) from 2015-06-17 to 2025-06-18 about projection, median, real, GDP, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Midpoint (FEDTARRM) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, rate, and USA.

Dataset Description

This dataset contains the actual and predicted federal funds target rate for the United States from 1990 to 2023. The federal funds target rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence the economy.

The dataset includes the following five columns:

Release Date: The date on which the data was released by the Federal Reserve. Time: The time of day at which the data was released. Actual: The actual federal funds target rate. Predicted: The predicted federal funds target rate. Forecast: The forecast federal funds target rate.

Data Usage

This dataset can be used for a variety of purposes, including: - Analyzing trends in the federal funds target rate over time. - Forecasting the future path of the federal funds target rate. - Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy. - Data Quality

The data for this dataset is of high quality. The Federal Reserve is a reputable source of data and the data is updated regularly.

Data Limitations

The data for this dataset is limited to the United States. Additionally, the data does not include information on the factors that influenced the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to set the federal funds target rate.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, Midpoint was 4.30000 Fourth Qtr., % in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, Midpoint reached a record high of 6.75000 in January of 2020 and a record low of 3.55000 in January of 2019. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Range, Midpoint - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation Rate, Range, High (PCECTPIRH) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, PCE, consumption expenditures, consumption, personal, inflation, rate, and USA.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to -0.28 points in May from -0.36 points in April of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data was reported at 2.400 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.400 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.000 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 20 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.900 % in Sep 2015 and a record low of 0.100 % in Dec 2020. United States FOMC Projection: Federal Funds Rate: Range: Y3: Lower End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M005: Federal Funds Rates: Summary of Economic Projections: Federal Reserve Board.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, High was 2.50000 Fourth Qtr. to Fourth Qtr. % Chg. in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, High reached a record high of 5.80000 in January of 2021 and a record low of -1.00000 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Growth Rate of Real Gross Domestic Product, Range, High - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 4.000 % in Dec 2021. This stayed constant from the previous number of 4.000 % for Sep 2021. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.200 % from Sep 2019 to Dec 2021, with 5 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.000 % in Sep 2020 and a record low of 4.000 % in Dec 2021. United States FOMC Projection: Unemployment Rate: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G033: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low was 2.60% in January of 2027, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low reached a record high of 5.40 in January of 2023 and a record low of 0.10 in January of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data was reported at 2.500 % in Dec 2024. This stayed constant from the previous number of 2.500 % for Sep 2024. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.400 % from Sep 2015 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 21 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.000 % in Sep 2020 and a record low of 2.000 % in Sep 2017. United States FOMC Projection: Change in Real GDP: Range: Y3: Upper End data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.A026: NIPA 2023: GDP by Expenditure: Constant Price: saar: QoQ: Projection: Federal Reserve Board.

United States Assets: Flow: FED: US Official Reserve Assets data was reported at -1.346 USD bn in Mar 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of -1.524 USD bn for Dec 2017. United States Assets: Flow: FED: US Official Reserve Assets data is updated quarterly, averaging 0.017 USD bn from Dec 1951 (Median) to Mar 2018, with 266 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 48.828 USD bn in Sep 2009 and a record low of -5.399 USD bn in Mar 2005. United States Assets: Flow: FED: US Official Reserve Assets data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.AB009: Funds by Sector: Flows and Outstanding: Federal Government.

This paper considers the effect of different dimensions of the FOMC's forward guidance on ex ante investor expectations about future changes in US Treasury yields. Options and Futures data for 2- and 10-year Treasuries is used to extract State-Price Densities of investor beliefs, and the corresponding standard deviation, skewness, and excess kurtosis of these densities are computed. Announcements about extension of the zero-lower bound in 2012-13 are found to reduce the expectations about crash risk, but increase the uncertainty about future yields for the 10-year. Policies about long-security purchases lead investors to place greater weight on no change in future yields.

United States Diffusion Index: Philadelphia Fed: sa: General Business Conditions data was reported at 25.700 NA in Jul 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 19.900 NA for Jun 2018. United States Diffusion Index: Philadelphia Fed: sa: General Business Conditions data is updated monthly, averaging 10.800 NA from May 1968 (Median) to Jul 2018, with 603 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 58.500 NA in Mar 1973 and a record low of -57.900 NA in Dec 1974. United States Diffusion Index: Philadelphia Fed: sa: General Business Conditions data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.S010: Third District Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey.

Content

Series is calculated as the spread between 3-Month LIBOR based on US dollars (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USD3MTD156N) and 3-Month Treasury Bill (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTB3). The series is lagged by one week because the LIBOR series is lagged by one week due to an agreement with the source. Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

Context

This is a dataset from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis hosted by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED). FRED has a data platform found here and they update their information according to the frequency that the data updates. Explore the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using Kaggle and all of the data sources available through the St. Louis Fed organization page!

• Update Frequency: This dataset is updated daily.

• Observation Start: 1986-01-02

• Observation End : 2019-12-04

Acknowledgements

This dataset is maintained using FRED's API and Kaggle's API.

Cover photo by Sidharth Bhatia on Unsplash
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Graph and download economic data for Longer Run FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Civilian Unemployment Rate, Central Tendency, Midpoint (UNRATECTMLR) from 2009-02-18 to 2025-06-18 about projection, civilian, unemployment, rate, and USA.

Philly Fed CAPEX Index in the United States increased to 17.10 points in July from 14.50 points in June of 2025. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Philly Fed CAPEX Index.

Effective Federal Funds Rate in the United States remained unchanged at 4.33 percent on Thursday July 17. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States Effective Federal Funds Rate.