The benchmark interest rate in the United States was last recorded at 4.50 percent. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Fed Funds Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for FOMC Summary of Economic Projections for the Fed Funds Rate, Range, Low (FEDTARRL) from 2025 to 2027 about projection, federal, rate, and USA.

United States Open Interest: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 10 Years data was reported at 0.000 Contract in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Contract for Apr 2018. United States Open Interest: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 10 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 13,704.000 Contract from Oct 2001 (Median) to May 2018, with 200 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 66,730.000 Contract in Aug 2007 and a record low of 0.000 Contract in May 2018. United States Open Interest: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CME Group. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.Z022: CBOT: Futures: Open Interest.

United States Open Interest: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 5 Years data was reported at 0.000 Contract in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Contract for Apr 2018. United States Open Interest: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 5 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 7,431.000 Contract from Jun 2002 (Median) to May 2018, with 192 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 68,018.000 Contract in Nov 2008 and a record low of 0.000 Contract in May 2018. United States Open Interest: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 5 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CME Group. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.Z022: CBOT: Futures: Open Interest.

Policy interest rates in the U.S. and Europe are forecasted to decrease gradually between 2024 and 2027, following exceptional increases triggered by soaring inflation between 2021 and 2023. The U.S. federal funds rate stood at **** percent at the end of 2023, the European Central Bank deposit rate at **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate at **** percent. With inflationary pressures stabilizing, policy interest rates are forecast to decrease in each observed region. The U.S. federal funds rate is expected to decrease to *** percent, the ECB refi rate to **** percent, the Bank of England bank rate to **** percent, and the Swiss National Bank policy rate to **** percent by 2025. An interesting aspect to note is the impact of these interest rate changes on various economic factors such as growth, employment, and inflation. The impact of central bank policy rates The U.S. federal funds effective rate, crucial in determining the interest rate paid by depository institutions, experienced drastic changes in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The subsequent slight changes in the effective rate reflected the efforts to stimulate the economy and manage economic factors such as inflation. Such fluctuations in the federal funds rate have had a significant impact on the overall economy. The European Central Bank's decision to cut its fixed interest rate in June 2024 for the first time since 2016 marked a significant shift in attitude towards economic conditions. The reasons behind the fluctuations in the ECB's interest rate reflect its mandate to ensure price stability and manage inflation, shedding light on the complex interplay between interest rates and economic factors. Inflation and real interest rates The relationship between inflation and interest rates is critical in understanding the actions of central banks. Central banks' efforts to manage inflation through interest rate adjustments reveal the intricate balance between economic growth and inflation. Additionally, the concept of real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, provides valuable insights into the impact of inflation on the economy.

United States Turnover: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 10 Years data was reported at 0.000 Contract in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Contract for Apr 2018. United States Turnover: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 10 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 26,040.500 Contract from Oct 2001 (Median) to May 2018, with 200 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 209,087.000 Contract in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Contract in May 2018. United States Turnover: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CME Group. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.Z021: CBOT: Futures: Turnover.

Japan Exports Nowcast: YoY: Contribution: Foreign Exchange Rates: U.S. Dollar Index: Futures: Open Interest data was reported at 4.086 % in 12 May 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.628 % for 05 May 2025. Japan Exports Nowcast: YoY: Contribution: Foreign Exchange Rates: U.S. Dollar Index: Futures: Open Interest data is updated weekly, averaging 0.101 % from Mar 2020 (Median) to 12 May 2025, with 271 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 22.114 % in 15 May 2023 and a record low of 0.000 % in 18 Dec 2023. Japan Exports Nowcast: YoY: Contribution: Foreign Exchange Rates: U.S. Dollar Index: Futures: Open Interest data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Japan – Table JP.CEIC.NC: CEIC Nowcast: Exports.

Graph and download economic data for 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T3MFF) from 1982-01-04 to 2025-07-30 about yield curve, spread, 3-month, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The attached data represents the interest rates of the United States from 1971 to 2024. Using this data, you can predict future interest rates by employing univariate or multivariate time series models.

Oil prices remained stable with the focus on the anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut, affecting global markets.

Global interest rate, long-term, total futures, US Dollar, on All exchanges, outstanding - notional amounts, Quarterly

Global interest rate, short-term, total futures, US Dollar, on All exchanges, turnover - notional amounts (daily average), Annual

Dataset Description

This dataset contains the actual and predicted federal funds target rate for the United States from 1990 to 2023. The federal funds target rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend their excess reserves to each other overnight. It is set by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and is a key tool used by the Federal Reserve to influence the economy.

The dataset includes the following five columns:

Release Date: The date on which the data was released by the Federal Reserve. Time: The time of day at which the data was released. Actual: The actual federal funds target rate. Predicted: The predicted federal funds target rate. Forecast: The forecast federal funds target rate.

Data Usage

This dataset can be used for a variety of purposes, including: - Analyzing trends in the federal funds target rate over time. - Forecasting the future path of the federal funds target rate. - Assessing the effectiveness of monetary policy. - Data Quality

The data for this dataset is of high quality. The Federal Reserve is a reputable source of data and the data is updated regularly.

Data Limitations

The data for this dataset is limited to the United States. Additionally, the data does not include information on the factors that influenced the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to set the federal funds target rate.

United States Turnover: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 5 Years data was reported at 0.000 Contract in May 2018. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Contract for Apr 2018. United States Turnover: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 5 Years data is updated monthly, averaging 11,527.000 Contract from Jun 2002 (Median) to May 2018, with 192 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 231,912.000 Contract in Jun 2009 and a record low of 0.000 Contract in May 2018. United States Turnover: CBOT: Financial Futures: Interest Rate Swap: 5 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CME Group. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.Z021: CBOT: Futures: Turnover.

As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Future Growth Rate of Orders; Percentage Reporting No Change for Texas was 44.60% in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Future Growth Rate of Orders; Percentage Reporting No Change for Texas reached a record high of 68.50 in March of 2023 and a record low of 30.00 in March of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Future Growth Rate of Orders; Percentage Reporting No Change for Texas - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Future Growth Rate of Orders; Diffusion Index for Texas was 10.90000 index in May of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, Future Growth Rate of Orders; Diffusion Index for Texas reached a record high of 55.50000 in September of 2004 and a record low of -21.60000 in March of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for Future Growth Rate of Orders; Diffusion Index for Texas - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

I estimate the effects of FOMC announcements, post-FOMC press conferences, and speeches and Congressional testimony by the Fed Chair on stock prices, Treasury yields, and interest rate futures from 1988–2019. I show that for all but the very shortest-maturity interest rate futures, Fed Chair speeches are more important than FOMC announcements. My results suggest that the previous literature’s focus on FOMC announcements has ignored the most important source of variation in U.S. monetary policy.

Oil prices hold steady on Tuesday, influenced by Chinese demand concerns and anticipation of the U.S. interest rate decision, impacting global market dynamics.