Prices were expected to change for all agri-food products in the United States due tariffs imposed on China, Mexico, and Canada in 2025. Imported products were expected to suffer the greatest price increases, but domestic products would see prices rise too, mostly due to the fact that stages of the production process might involve raw materials from other countries. Among the domestic agri-food products processed, rice would see the highest price increase, with 4.8 percent, while among imported products wheat would see the highest increase at 14.9 percent.

Discover the effects of U.S. tariffs on Asian supermarkets, impacting prices of popular imported goods and affecting loyal customers.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs on imported food products and packaging materials have direct economic implications by increasing costs across the supply chain. These elevated costs often translate to higher prices for consumers, affecting affordability and demand in online food markets. Tariffs disrupt international trade flows, causing delays in customs clearance and increasing logistical complexities, which can impact inventory management and timely deliveries.

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Such disruptions hinder scalability for e-commerce businesses reliant on cross-border supplies. Moreover, tariff-induced uncertainties affect investment decisions, delaying infrastructure expansion and technological innovation. However, tariffs can stimulate domestic production of food and packaging, promoting local economies and potentially enhancing supply chain resilience over time. Balancing these effects remains crucial for sustained market growth.

The food processors and blenders industry has experienced moderate volatility in recent years, primarily impacted by fluctuating input costs and the aftereffects of the pandemic. Plastic, as a significant input material, has dramatically influenced revenue, with high plastic prices enabling manufacturers to pass these costs onto consumers, resulting in revenue growth. Consequently, industry profit margins have expanded, although purchase costs still take up the largest portion of revenue for operators. Overall, revenue is estimated to rise at a CAGR of 1.7% over the five years to 2024, reaching $1.6 billion, with a 2.3% growth in 2024 alone.

The industry notably depends on trade, with exports and imports constituting more than half of its revenue and domestic demand. Although exports have recently decreased as a share of revenue, Canada and Mexico remain the primary destinations for these products. Meanwhile, Germany is the largest importer of food processors and blenders, intensifying competition for domestic producers vying for supermarket and warehouse club placements. Future trade performance will hinge on variables like commodity price fluctuations, changes in tariffs and political administrations, and international trade relations. These factors are expected to play a significant role in shaping industry revenue in the years to come. In addition, further merger and acquisition activity can make the industry more concentrated, making it more difficult for smaller operators to compete.

Looking ahead, the industry's performance is anticipated to grow over the next five years. While increased globalization and economic growth in developed nations could encourage more offshoring, thereby posing a threat, manufacturers are projected to benefit from rising exports, higher income levels, and greater investment in research and development. This trend is expected to make domestically-produced food processors and blenders more appealing. Manufacturers are innovating with smart food processors that incorporate new technologies and designs, including compact sizes, diverse culinary functions, automated cooking, self-cleaning features, and integrated temperature control. These advancements complement smart homes and work seamlessly with existing assistant devices. As a result, the industry's revenue is forecasted to rise at a CAGR of 2.0%, reaching $1.7 billion over the next five years.

US Tariff Impact on Market

U.S. tariffs, particularly those imposed on imported machinery and components for packaging automation, have had a noticeable impact on the market. These tariffs have raised production costs for manufacturers of packaging equipment and automation systems, increasing the cost of machinery and parts, especially for companies sourcing from countries like China.

As a result, companies are either absorbing the additional costs or passing them on to consumers, which could slow the adoption of automation technologies in certain sectors. The U.S. food and beverage segment, which holds a significant share, may face delays and cost increases as companies adjust to tariff pressures on essential packaging components.

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Impact on Packaging Automation sectors

• Filling Machines: Increased by 10-15%
• Packaging Machinery: Increased by 5-8%
• Food & Beverage: Increased by 3-5%

➤ Economic Impact

The U.S. tariffs on imported packaging automation machinery have led to increased costs for companies in the U.S. market. This has affected manufacturers, especially in the food and beverage industries, as higher operational expenses could impact profit margins. It may also hinder small-to-medium enterprises from investing in automation solutions.

➤ Geographical Impact

U.S. tariffs on packaging automation components have affected the North American market by raising the cost of key machinery and systems. As the U.S. depends heavily on imports for automation solutions, particularly from Asia, companies are facing higher costs, impacting the overall pricing structure and competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers.

➤ Business Impact

Packaging automation businesses are facing an increase in production costs due to the U.S. tariffs. Companies involved in manufacturing and supplying packaging equipment must either absorb these costs or pass them on to consumers, potentially reducing demand for automation solutions. This has particularly affected food and beverage manufacturers with tight margins.

Food trucks have seen significant growth over the last five years, cementing their position as a standout in the broad food services sector. Notably, this expansion is largely due to evolving consumer tastes shifting in favor of unique, gourmet cuisine offered at prices lower than those in traditional sit-down restaurants. The industry has thrived, with cities like Portland, LA and Austin passing regulations and establishing designated areas for this new wave of culinary delights. The industry revenue stayed resilient despite higher inflationary pressures. Therefore, industry revenue is expected to reach $2.8 billion, with an annualized growth rate of 13.2% over the five years to 2025. However, in 2025 alone, industry revenue is expected to marginally decline 0.2% due to higher tariffs that force most food truck vendors to raise their prices. Nevertheless, not all food truck industry vendors celebrate this success. City regulations, escalating competition, and minuscule profit margins are tripping up some. Food truck-specific laws are not uniform; they differ by city. These laws determine the working hours and conditions for the food trucks, often including specified distances from traditional brick-and-mortar establishments. Indeed, these restaurants often see the food trucks as direct competition and have rallied against the industry. Food trucks will still face significant challenges over the next five years. The most prominent are regulatory roadblocks, stunting industry growth. Parking and other concerns legislation remains a work in progress in many towns as they scramble to accommodate the wave of change. Nonetheless, rising household incomes and the growing interest in convenient yet affordable gourmet cuisine will fuel the industry's expansion. The projected revenue growth over the five years to 2030 is a CAGR of 0.3%, reaching $2.9 billion.

The transformation of the Accommodation and Food Services sector in the United States has been an exercise in adaptation. With technology and changing consumer tastes scripting the narrative, shifting from traditional dining and lodging systems toward digitized market platforms marks a key trend. Despite inflationary pressures, this sector's endurance has seen a largely upward growth trajectory, fueled by rising disposable income and increased tourism. But 2025 is expected to bring a unique challenge. Due to a low pandemic base, revenue expanded at a CAGR of 11.4% to hit $1.7 trillion over the five years to 2025, including a 3.8% growth in 2025 alone. The sector saw drastic culling, reorienting towards a digital existence, contactless and home-based food services. The pivot to online platforms was a necessity that fueled growth. The proposed US tariffs are expected to significantly heighten costs for businesses in the sector due to increased prices of imported food, beverages, equipment and construction materials. These tariffs, especially on Chinese products, will directly impact the supply chains that hotels and restaurants depend on for crucial items such as fresh produce, coffee, liquor, furniture and kitchenware. Consequently, businesses may have to transfer these costs onto their customers or postpone investment plans. In 2025, profit is expected to reach 9.5% of revenue. New trends emerged on the sector's horizon. Takeout, app-based services and ghost kitchens became the new lifelines, challenging traditional businesses. However, the return to office mandate could shake the competitive dynamics in tech-based food and lodging services. To stay ahead, providers must explore new niches like health-first meal prep or the growing popularity of fast-casual dining. Over the next five years, the sector is expected to benefit from a flow of foreign tourists coming to the US to attend global events such as 2026 World Cup and 2028 Summer Olympic. A surge in tourist number will ultimately support demand for services provided by this sector. The charted course points towards a growing sector, expected to expand at an annualized rate of 1.9%, hitting $1.9 trillion over the five years to 2030.

Street vendors have seen growth over the past five years because of heightened consumer demand for unique food products and more outdoor gatherings post-pandemic. Street vendors prepare and serve food and beverages for consumption from vehicles and carts, limiting initial capital costs and expanding appeal for vendors attempting to enter the food service sector for the first time. Industry revenue is expected to expand at a CAGR of 13.6% to reach $4.0 billion over the five years to 2025. The food truck craze began to take hold just prior to the current period and has since outperformed the broader food service sector. Further, rising inflation has reduced disposable income, inducing customers to frequent street vendors due to their low price points. This steady expansion will continue, with revenue anticipated to boost 0.7% in 2025 alone. For most of the current period, many consumers have spent more on eating out; however, many people have still opted for lower-priced items and convenience. Yet, despite an expansively health-conscious consumer base, renewed fascination with street foods in the United States has offset some of these trends. Nonetheless, increased oversight on street vendor operations and the limited access to permit have limited industry entrant and reduce street vendors' profitability as compliance costs rise. Newly imposed tariffs in 2025 will also pressure profitability, especially for vendors selling ethnic cuisines. Nonetheless, the return to office mandates by both the private and public sector has expanded the industry's customer base. Street food vendors are forecast to expansively invest in specialty, authentic ethnic and fusion food. Many of these operations have surged in recent years and outperformed traditional street vendors. Demand will inch upward as the economy improves from a stretch of high inflation and major events such as FIFA World Cup 2026 and Olympic 2028 draw international tourists to the US. Overall, industry revenue is expected to rise an annualized rate of 0.9% to $4.2 billion over the five years to 2030.

Over the past few years, the Airline Catering Services industry has been shaken by rising oil prices and shifting consumer preferences. Traditional strategies focusing on cost-cutting and competitive pricing have ceased to provide the expected gains. A case in point is the decision by airlines to stop serving meals to economy-class passengers on nearly all domestic flights in the US, which affected industry demand. Nonetheless, the need for differentiation has driven a demand for quality food options. This was triggered in part by rising consumer interest in healthier, more sustainable and locally-sourced meal options. This prompted airlines to take innovative steps such as partnering with renowned chefs, hotel chains and even food delivery apps. In a bid to tackle food waste, airlines like Lufthansa and KLM introduced AI-based solutions to manage meal portions effectively and prevent surplus food prep. Consequently, industry revenue is expected to expand at a CAGR of 9.5% to $3.9 billion over the five years to 2025, including 6.7% in 2025 alone. As the industry improves from the pandemic lows, profit is also expected to reach 6.1% of revenue in 2025. Over the next five years, the industry's performance is expected to be shaped by external factors such as US tariffs on inflight catering supplies. These tariffs could spike operational costs by increasing the prices of imported metal trays, high-grade plastics and gourmet food ingredients. Caterers may be forced to cut staff, shrink menus, or merge kitchens to stay afloat. However, technology interventions such as electric, refrigerated catering trucks could help address challenges around stringent food preparation and storage procedures, helping the industry deliver a good passenger experience while meeting sustainability goals. To the industry's benefit, major sports events such as the FIFA World Cup 2026 and the Summer Olympics 2028 will bring in more international customers. Overall, industry revenue is expected to continue growing at a CAGR of 2.8% to $4.4 billion over the five years to 2030.

Restaurants have experienced surging recovery and record inflation in the past few years as they continue to serve the public's appetite. After the pandemic, chain restaurants contended with high inflation that reduce customers' willingness to dine out. Later on, soaring operational costs have pressured industry profitability, driving some chains out of the industry. Overall, over the five years to 2025, chain restaurant revenue expanded at a CAGR of 10.4% to $241.5 billion, including a 1.7% decline in 2025, where profit reached 4.7%.Massive part-time employment, a high establishment-to-operator ratio and heavy external competition differentiate the chain restaurant. However, the back-of-house technology many restaurant franchisees employ allows them to benefit from a parent chain's digital ordering system, unified marketing and negotiation leverage. Despite improving efficiency across franchises helping to keep menu prices low, cost-conscious consumers are considering other options, from meal kit delivery to fast-casual chains.Even while experiencing 2022's historic inflation, restaurants are also expected to suffer from the US-Canada tariffs that pushing up purchase costs. However, market leaders are pursuing international growth to balance national chain saturation, while niche chains pop up to provide customized food options and thematic, personalized service. In addition, restaurant chains of all sizes implement technology to speed up kitchen tasks, take mobile orders and track social influence. By 2030, revenue will rise at a CAGR of 1.8% to $264.5 billion.

Full-service restaurants in Canada thrived from the pandemic low, driven mainly by rising levels of consumer spending. However, the unwelcome high inflationary pressure following the pandemic has reduced customers' propensity to dine out as menu inflation surpassed food inflation. As a result, soaring operational costs and lower consumer interest in dining out have suppressed the industry's overall growth. Nonetheless, industry revenue has expanded an annualized 10.8% to $49.5 billion over the past five years, including 2.7% growth in 2025 alone. Likewise, industry profit has improved, accounting for 4.4% of industry revenue. This industry primarily consists of many small, independent, single-location restaurants, making the market quite fragmented. The notable players are franchises that mainly acquire revenue through royalty fees. Over the past five years, full-service restaurants have grappled with soaring costs, especially regarding wages and ingredients. Minimum wages and a restriction on temporary foreign worker supply have driven labor expenses for restaurants, which have already endured staff shortages. In 2025, the US-Canada tariff war is expected to worsen the situation. The tariffs on US-imported produce will force restaurants to work on their current supply chains, such as shifting to source locally and other countries like Mexico. In the outlook period, industry revenue is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace. A decline in household income levels and continued tariff threats will likely drive customers from frequenting full-service restaurants. Consequently, industry revenue is projected to increase at an annualized rate of 1.5%, resulting in $53.5 billion over the five years to 2030.

Despite the volatile economic climate in the last five years, the Single-Location, Full-Service Restaurant industry has displayed resilience and adaptability. Unprecedented challenges brought by the pandemic and its associated economic recovery introduced considerable shifts in consumer behavior early in the period, and many in the industry received government assistance to weather those challenges. This was followed by robust domestic economic growth and increased consumer spending in recent years, which fueled the industry's modest yet consistent expansion in the current period – particularly in upscale dining among affluent consumers. As of spring 2025, the industry is expected to endure significant setbacks due to tariffs potentially affecting the supply chain. Coupled with persistent hiring challenges, restauranteurs are seeking to diversify their suppliers, which may increase operational costs. Due to a low COVID-19 base year in 2020, industry revenues have grown at a CAGR of 8.8% over the past five years. In 2025 alone, revenue is expected to rise 1.7%, reaching $260.1 billion. Profit is slightly higher than it was in the years immediately preceding the pandemic but has held steady at roughly 4.3% throughout most of the current period, having fallen from its outlier high in 2020 – likely due to higher costs that have pressured industry profitability. The industry, defined by intense competition, is highly fragmented. Many independent restaurants are small, often family-run ventures. These single-location establishments compete with chain restaurants, fast-food restaurants, hotels and coffee and snack shops. Additionally, budget-friendly establishments have faced stiff competition in the current period as consumers flocked to innovative offerings from fast-casual newbies. Looking forward, despite looming tariffs, there are reasons to be optimistic for this industry. It is expected to navigate economic uncertainty, buoyed by rising consumer spending in the coming years. The industry is also likely to benefit from the slight rise in inhabitants in urban areas, which typically feature a higher concentration of restaurants. Industry revenue is expected to rise an annualized 1.2% to $275.9 billion over the five years to 2030.