According to recent projections, the impact of reciprocal tariffs worldwide will lead to a short-term acceleration of prices by 0.71 percent. The U.S. is expected to experience the highest price index increase, estimated at 7.26 percent.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.

If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The inflation rate in the United States is expected to decrease to 2.1 percent by 2029. 2022 saw a year of exceptionally high inflation, reaching eight percent for the year. The data represents U.S. city averages. The base period was 1982-84. In economics, the inflation rate is a measurement of inflation, the rate of increase of a price index (in this case: consumer price index). It is the percentage rate of change in prices level over time. The rate of decrease in the purchasing power of money is approximately equal. According to the forecast, prices will increase by 2.9 percent in 2024. The annual inflation rate for previous years can be found here and the consumer price index for all urban consumers here. The monthly inflation rate for the United States can also be accessed here. Inflation in the U.S.Inflation is a term used to describe a general rise in the price of goods and services in an economy over a given period of time. Inflation in the United States is calculated using the consumer price index (CPI). The consumer price index is a measure of change in the price level of a preselected market basket of consumer goods and services purchased by households. This forecast of U.S. inflation was prepared by the International Monetary Fund. They project that inflation will stay higher than average throughout 2023, followed by a decrease to around roughly two percent annual rise in the general level of prices until 2028. Considering the annual inflation rate in the United States in 2021, a two percent inflation rate is a very moderate projection. The 2022 spike in inflation in the United States and worldwide is due to a variety of factors that have put constraints on various aspects of the economy. These factors include COVID-19 pandemic spending and supply-chain constraints, disruptions due to the war in Ukraine, and pandemic related changes in the labor force. Although the moderate inflation of prices between two and three percent is considered normal in a modern economy, countries’ central banks try to prevent severe inflation and deflation to keep the growth of prices to a minimum. Severe inflation is considered dangerous to a country’s economy because it can rapidly diminish the population’s purchasing power and thus damage the GDP .

Peloton's shares dropped by 5.8% following the announcement of U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, raising concerns of increased production costs and inflation.

Building materials made of steel, copper and other metals had some of the highest price growth rates in the U.S. in early 2025 in comparison to the previous year. The growth rate of the cost of several construction materials was slightly lower than in late 2024. It is important to note, though, that the figures provided are Producer Price Indices, which cover production within the United States, but do not include imports or tariffs. This might matter for lumber, as Canada's wood production is normally large enough that the U.S. can import it from its neighboring country. Construction material prices in the United Kingdom Similarly to these trends in the U.S., at that time the price growth rate of construction materials in the UK were generally lower 2024 than in 2023. Nevertheless, the cost of some construction materials in the UK still rose that year, with several of those items reaching price growth rates of over **** percent. Considering that those materials make up a very big share of the costs incurred for a construction project, those developments may also have affected the average construction output price in the UK. Construction material shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, there often were supply problems and material shortages, which created instability in the construction market. According to a survey among construction contractors, the construction materials most affected by shortages in the U.S. during most of 2021 were steel and lumber. This was also a problem on the other side of the Atlantic: The share of building construction companies experiencing shortages in Germany soared between March and June 2021, staying at high levels for over a year. Meanwhile, the shortage of material or equipment was one of the main factors limiting the building activity in France in June 2022.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has substantially impacted global economies, with rising costs and inflation taking center stage. In the United States, the implementation of new tariffs on imported goods has caused a significant surge in consumer prices, particularly in sectors like electronics, apparel, and automotive. U.S. GDP is projected to experience a loss of approximately 1.1%, which translates to a $170 billion reduction in economic output.

Moreover, the tariffs have eroded consumer purchasing power, with households expected to lose about $3,800 annually. These measures have forced businesses to reevaluate their supply chains and cost structures, further influencing the global trade environment. As inflation rises, central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, face growing pressure to manage the economic fallout, balancing inflation control with economic growth.

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How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

The imposition of tariffs has had significant repercussions on the U.S. economy, with rising import costs and disrupted supply chains being among the most notable effects. Tariffs on key components for industries like electronics and robotics have increased manufacturing costs, leading to higher prices for consumers.

This affects businesses by squeezing profit margins and forcing them to make difficult decisions about absorbing these costs or passing them on to customers. The tariff-driven inflation also negatively impacts consumer purchasing power, reducing overall demand for non-essential goods.

Additionally, businesses dependent on international supply chains are facing delays, inefficiencies, and rising transportation costs. In the robotics sector, tariffs on foreign hardware components have made it more expensive for companies to source critical parts, thus slowing down production.

The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs also discourages investment in innovation and expansion, as companies remain cautious in an unpredictable global trade environment. This overall slowdown in economic activity could delay the full potential of emerging technologies like humanoid robots, which rely on global collaboration for research and development.

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Gold futures hit a historic high of $3,248.40 due to U.S. tariff policies and inflation concerns, with a 36% surge over the past year.

U.S. stock futures dip as investors focus on inflation data and tariff updates. S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones futures decline slightly. Bitcoin rises, gold falls, and oil sees an uptick amid market complexities.

Gold prices fell by 3.58% on Monday due to global tariff concerns, yet remain up 16.77% since January amid economic uncertainty.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs have created significant disruptions in global supply chains, leading to higher production and operational costs. In the U.S., tariffs imposed on food imports have directly impacted the foodservice sector, including full-service restaurants. The increased cost of ingredients, equipment, and even labor due to higher import duties has squeezed restaurant profit margins.

Additionally, businesses are experiencing delays in product deliveries, resulting in supply shortages that impact menu offerings and customer satisfaction. While some restaurants have absorbed these higher costs, many have been forced to increase prices, contributing to inflation.

Consumer spending is also impacted as the cost of dining out rises, reducing discretionary spending in other sectors. Tariffs are exacerbating challenges in an already competitive market, forcing FSR businesses to adapt their sourcing strategies, rethink their pricing models, and invest in automation to offset higher costs. In the long term, tariffs may result in fewer investment opportunities and slower growth in the foodservice industry.

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In May 2025, global inflation rates and central bank interest rates showed significant variation across major economies. Most economies initiated interest rate cuts from mid-2024 due to declining inflationary pressures. The U.S., UK, and EU central banks followed a consistent pattern of regular rate reductions throughout late 2024. In early 2025, Russia maintained the highest interest rate at 20 percent, while Japan retained the lowest at 0.5 percent. Varied inflation rates across major economies The inflation landscape varies considerably among major economies. China had the lowest inflation rate at -0.1 percent in May 2025. In contrast, Russia maintained a high inflation rate of 9.9 percent. These figures align with broader trends observed in early 2025, where China had the lowest inflation rate among major developed and emerging economies, while Russia's rate remained the highest. Central bank responses and economic indicators Central banks globally implemented aggressive rate hikes throughout 2022-23 to combat inflation. The European Central Bank exemplified this trend, raising rates from 0 percent in January 2022 to 4.5 percent by September 2023. A coordinated shift among major central banks began in mid-2024, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Federal Reserve initiating rate cuts, with forecasts suggesting further cuts through 2025 and 2026.

U.S. stock index futures climbed, supported by a U.S.-China tariff truce and positive inflation data, with significant weekly gains expected for major indexes.

How Tariffs are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs impose additional costs on imported goods, which directly affect production costs and consumer prices. For industries dependent on international supply chains, these rising costs can lead to higher prices for end consumers.

As tariffs increase, businesses may face a reduction in profit margins, forcing them to either absorb the costs or pass them on to consumers. Additionally, tariffs can result in supply chain shifts as companies seek out alternative suppliers or move production to countries with lower tariffs.

The impact extends beyond the immediate sectors affected, influencing overall economic growth by slowing down trade flows, leading to inflation, and potentially reducing consumer purchasing power. Retaliatory tariffs from other countries may also exacerbate these effects, creating a cycle of escalating trade tensions and uncertainty in the global market.

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According to a survey conducted between July 9 and July 11, 2022, 45 percent of Americans thought that Joe Biden was highly responsible for the current trend in the inflation rate. This is compared to 26 percent of Americans who said President Biden did not have a lot of responsibility for the current inflation rate.

Inflation in the U.S. Global events in 2022 had a significant impact on the United States. Inflation rose from 1.4 percent in January 2021 to 9.1 percent in June 2022. Significantly higher prices of basic goods led to increased concern over the state of the economy, and the ability to cover increasing monthly costs with the same income. Low interest rates, COVID-19-related supply constraints, corporate profiteering, and strong consumer spending had already put pressure on prices before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite rising wages on paper, the rapid growth of consumer prices resulted in an overall decline in real hourly earnings in the first half of 2022.

How much control does Joe Biden have over inflation? The bulk of economic performance and the inflation rate is determined by factors outside the President’s direct control, but U.S. presidents are often held accountable for it. Some of those factors are market forces, private business, productivity growth, the state of the global economy, and policies of the Federal Reserve. Although high-spending decisions such as the 2021 COVID-19 relief bill may have contributed to rising inflation rates, the bill has been seen by economists as a necessary intervention for preventing a recession at the time, as well as being of significant importance to low-income workers impacted by the pandemic.

The most important tool for curbing inflation and controlling the U.S. economy is the Federal Reserve. The Reserve has the ability to set, raise, and lower interest rates and determine the wider monetary policy for the United States – something out of the president’s control. In June 2022, the Reserve announced it would raise interest rates 0.75 percent for the second time that year – hoisting the rate to a target range of 2.25 to 2.5 percent – in an attempt to slow consumer demand and balance demand with supply. However, it can often take time before the impacts of interventions by the Federal Reserve are seen in the public’s day-to-day lives. Most economists expect this wave of inflation to pass in a year to 18 months.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts and calculations presented in The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency, PIIE Working Paper 24-20.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, Megan Hogan, and Marcus Noland. 2024. The International Economic Implications of a Second Trump Presidency. PIIE Working Paper 24-20. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

How Tariffs Are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs have created significant disruption in the global economy, increasing the cost of goods and raw materials, which has impacted many industries, including the cold chain sector. In the U.S., tariffs on imported goods have raised the price of raw materials for cold chain technologies, such as sensors and refrigerants.

As the cost of production rises, businesses are facing increased operational costs, which are often passed on to consumers, resulting in higher prices for goods. These tariff-induced price increases are contributing to inflation, reducing consumer purchasing power. Additionally, tariffs are disrupting global supply chains, causing delays in shipping and increasing transportation costs.

For industries reliant on global trade, including food and pharmaceuticals, this presents significant challenges in maintaining efficient and cost-effective supply chains.

Companies are now rethinking their sourcing strategies, considering alternatives like nearshoring or reshoring to mitigate the impact of tariffs on operations. This could lead to greater supply chain diversification but also higher operational costs in the short term.

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US Tariff Impact on the Market

The global foldable drone market, particularly in the U.S., is influenced by tariffs imposed on Chinese imports. In 2023, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on drone components from China, which impacted manufacturers' costs, leading to an increase in drone prices. This shift has driven companies to explore alternate supply chain strategies, including domestic production and sourcing from non-tariffed countries.

While tariffs have raised prices, they have also led to a surge in demand for locally produced drones, with U.S. companies increasing investment in R&D and manufacturing facilities. Despite price hikes, consumer demand for foldable drones remains strong, particularly in commercial sectors like photography, surveying, and infrastructure inspection.

US Tariff Impact Percentage for Impacted Sector

• Tariff Rates and Impact on Drone Prices:

In April 2025, the U.S. imposed a cumulative 170% tariff on Chinese-made drones, including models from DJI, due to national security concerns.

• Legislative Actions and Proposals:

A bipartisan group of U.S. lawmakers urged the Biden administration to increase tariffs on Chinese-made drones and implement incentives to support U.S. drone manufacturers.

House Republicans proposed legislation to boost tariffs on Chinese-made drones by 30% initially, with annual increases, and to ban imports of drones containing critical Chinese components by 2030.

• Economic Impact on Drone Components:

The tariffs led to cost inflation and delayed availability of critical drone components, including lithium-ion batteries, electronic speed controllers, sensors, and optics, which were predominantly sourced from China.

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Economic Impact

• The imposition of tariffs increased the production costs of foldable drones.
• Companies responded by raising prices or seeking alternative manufacturing regions.
• Despite cost pressures, demand in sectors like photography, real estate, and infrastructure inspection remains strong.

Geographical Impact

• North America, especially the U.S., remains a leading market, accounting for over 39% of global share.
• European and Asian markets are growing as demand for foldable drones expands in commercial and recreational sectors.
• The rise in local manufacturing in the U.S. due to tariffs impacts the global supply chain.

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How Tariffs are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs impact the economy by raising the cost of imported goods and materials, which can lead to inflation. For industries like cable manufacturing, tariffs on raw materials and components increase production costs. These price hikes often get passed on to consumers, making goods more expensive and reducing disposable income. Tariffs also create uncertainty in global trade, disrupting established supply chains and delaying manufacturing schedules.

Companies may need to seek alternative suppliers or manufacturing locations, which can result in inefficiencies or delays in production. In the cold shrink cable accessories market, tariffs on key materials such as cable components could increase manufacturing costs, especially in the Asia-Pacific region where most production occurs. Additionally, businesses may face difficulties in expanding into new markets or maintaining competitiveness due to the rising cost of imported components and retaliatory tariffs from other countries.

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