According to a 2024 survey, roughly one-third of respondents who identified as Republicans favored higher tariffs on U.S. trade partners. In comparison, a similar share of Democrats favored lower tariffs.

On April 9, 2025, the U.S. imposed high import tariffs on Chinese goods. Average U.S. tariffs on imports from China reached ***** percent on April 10, 2025. In comparison, import levies on exports from the rest of the world were at around **** percent. In response to increased U.S. tariffs, China imposed retaliatory levies, averaging ***** percent as of April 12, 2025. After trade talks, the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily lower mutual trade barriers, leading to average U.S. tariffs of **** percent and average Chinese tariffs of **** percent on May 14, 2025.

This data package includes the underlying data files to replicate the data, tables, and charts presented in Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans, PIIE Policy Brief 24-1.

If you use the data, please cite as: Clausing, Kimberly, and Mary E. Lovely. 2024. Why Trump’s tariff proposals would harm working Americans. PIIE Policy Brief 24-1. Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

US Tariff Impact on Market

US tariffs on imported components for AI servers, including GPUs and hardware, could have a significant impact on the AI servers in the financial services market. Increased costs due to tariffs may raise the overall price of AI servers, especially for cloud-based and GPU-based servers, which held a dominant share of the market in 2024.

As a result, financial services firms may face higher operational costs, potentially leading to slower adoption, particularly in sectors like banking, which accounted for 30.2% of the market in 2024. While the tariffs may present short-term challenges, the ongoing demand for AI-driven fraud detection and security solutions could mitigate some of the adverse effects. Over time, manufacturers may adapt by shifting production or seeking alternative suppliers to manage the tariff impact, ensuring continued market growth.

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US Tariff Impact on Sectors:

• Hardware: 5%-7%
• Cloud-based Servers: 4%-6%
• GPU-based Servers: 5%-7%

Economic Impact

Tariffs may increase the cost of hardware components such as GPUs and servers, leading to higher prices for AI servers in financial services. This could reduce affordability, especially for financial institutions in price-sensitive markets. Smaller firms or regions with limited budgets may face delays in adopting AI server solutions.

Geographical Impact

North America, particularly the U.S., will be the most affected by tariffs on AI hardware components. This could result in slower growth in the U.S. market, which is currently the largest, as financial institutions may face increased costs. Other regions with lower tariffs may experience faster growth in comparison.

Business Impact

Businesses in the AI servers market may see reduced profit margins due to higher component costs from tariffs. The price increases could delay procurement of AI servers, particularly for fraud detection applications, which dominate the market. Companies might explore new sourcing strategies or absorb costs to mitigate these challenges.

The FTA Tariff Rates API provides data about each country with whom the United States has a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). When the U.S. enters into an FTA with a foreign government, it negotiates lower tariff rates with that government for a wide variety of products. A tariff is a tax that a company must pay a foreign country when shipping a product to that country. Typically the FTA tariffs rates decline over several years.

We measure the tariff shocks by matching the U.S. products of Section 301 Tariffs with China provincial customs export data in 2017, the year before the trade war.First, based on the tariffed product lists released by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which specify products at the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) eight-digit code level, we calculate the proportion of tariffed product categories under each six-digit HTS code. For instance, under the U.S. HTS-6 code 6309.29 (tents of other textile material), the corresponding sub-code includes 6306.29.11 (tents of cotton) and 6306.29.21 (tents made of other materials), with only 6306.29.11 being subject to additional tariffs. Thus, the tariffed rate for HTS code 6309.29 is 50%.Second, since the HTS-6 codes are consistent under the Harmonized System (HS) across countries, we estimate the scale of Chinese export affected by the trade war by multiplying the export data of HS-6 products by the corresponding HTS-6 tariffed rate.Third, we further adjust for provincial differences by dividing each province’s tariff-affected export scale by its total export scale.Fourth, the intensity of tariffs varied across the four rounds of the trade war. In the first three rounds, listed products were subjected to a 25% tariff, whereas the fourth round, while covering nearly all remaining U.S.-bound exports, had a lower tariff rate (7.5%), following the signing of the “Phase One” trade agreement between China and the U.S. in January 2020. To account for these differences, we assign a weight of 0.25 to the first three rounds and a weight of 0.075 to the fourth round. The weighted sum serves as a proxy variable for the provincial exposure of the U.S.-China trade war.

We use micro data collected at the border and the store to characterize the price impact of recent US trade policy on importers, exporters, and consumers. At the border, import tariff passthrough is much higher than exchange rate passthrough. Chinese exporters did not lower their dollar prices by much, despite the recent appreciation of the dollar. By contrast, US exporters significantly lowered prices affected by foreign retaliatory tariffs. In US stores, the price impact is more limited, suggesting that retail margins have fallen. Our results imply that, so far, the tariffs' incidence has fallen in large part on US firms.

Mexican cars exported to the U.S. will face a reduced tariff of 15%, enhancing their competitiveness and potentially boosting Mexico's automotive industry.

According to new estimations, if the 2025 tariffs were to remain in place, they would put more of a strain on households with lower income than those with more. The estimated tariff burden on households in the *** income decile is almost **** times that of the top decile.

President Trump's ten percent tariffs on imports from China, which went into effect on February 4, 2025, are projected to have negative effects on both the GDP of China and the U.S. However, the effect on China's GDP is expected to be stronger and result in a contraction by 0.16 percent in 2026 and 2027 compared to the baseline scenario. In contrast, the U.S. GDP is only projected to be 0.07 percent lower than in the baseline scenario in 2027. If China retaliates, the negative effects on both countries might be stronger.

Thailand is set to lower tariffs on U.S. corn imports, aiming to benefit local agriculture amid trade tensions.

US Tariff Impact on Market

The livestock farming technology market is vulnerable to changes in US tariffs, particularly on equipment imported from countries such as China and other international suppliers. US tariffs could lead to an increase in production costs, raising prices for essential farming technologies like IoT sensors, automated feeding systems, and milking robotics.

These higher prices may hinder adoption, especially among smaller or rural farms that are already constrained by financial limitations. It is estimated that tariffs could lead to an increase in costs by up to 25% for certain imported technologies.

For farmers, this could result in delayed investments or a shift towards less sophisticated, lower-cost alternatives, potentially impacting the overall growth of the market in the US. Companies within the US may also need to source domestically or from other countries not impacted by tariffs, which could disrupt existing supply chains.

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• Economic Impact: Increased tariffs will lead to higher costs for both manufacturers and farmers, limiting the affordability of livestock farming technology, particularly for small-scale operations.
• Geographical Impact: US farms, especially in rural areas, will be more affected by price hikes due to reliance on international suppliers. This could result in slower adoption rates in these regions.
• Business Impact: Manufacturers and tech companies will need to re-evaluate their supply chains and may be forced to pass the cost increases to farmers, negatively affecting sales and profitability.

Framework halts US sales of some lower-end laptops, citing financial challenges due to tariffs. Affected models include the Ultra 5 125H and Ryzen 5 7640U.

Brazilian coffee exporters are exploring new opportunities in the U.S. market due to lower tariffs compared to competitors like Vietnam and Indonesia, potentially increasing robusta bean exports.

According to a survey conducted among private equity firms in the United States, an increasing number of them plan to help portfolio companies understand supply chain impacts of tariffs, rising from ** percent in December 2024 to ** percent in March 2025. Evaluating manufacturing footprints also grew from ** percent to ** percent, and tax issue planning from ** percent to ** percent. Interest in lower-exposure jurisdictions and transaction acceleration was also indicated as one of the strategies to prepare for tariffs hikes.

US Tariff Impact on Market

US tariffs on semiconductor components used in data center chips could impact the overall cost of production. As the demand for GPUs and other advanced chips used in data centers grows, tariffs on components such as processors, memory units, and storage chips could raise production costs.

This price increase may be passed onto end consumers, particularly large data centers, which account for 64.1% of the market. Given the growing importance of data processing in sectors like BFSI (which accounts for 23.0% of the market), these tariffs could slow down investments in upgrading existing infrastructure.

While the North American market currently leads, the rising costs could lead to increased competition from global manufacturers, reducing the market share in the U.S. However, as demand for high-performance computing continues, these short-term challenges may be offset by long-term growth driven by the increasing reliance on cloud services and data-intensive applications.

US Tariff Impact on Sectors

• GPU Chips: 4%-6%
• Data Center Chips (General): 5%-7%
• Semiconductor Components: 3%-5%

Economic Impact

Tariffs on semiconductor components could increase production costs for data center chips, raising prices across sectors, particularly in large data centers. This would impact enterprises relying on large-scale data storage and processing, particularly in high-demand sectors like BFSI, potentially slowing the pace of infrastructure upgrades and investments.

Geographical Impact

North America, which currently leads the market with 38.4% share, may face slowed growth due to higher prices caused by tariffs on imported components. The U.S. could experience reduced competitiveness in the global market, as manufacturers in other regions with fewer tariffs could offer more affordable alternatives.

Business Impact

Businesses in the data center chip sector may face lower profit margins due to increased production costs from tariffs. Companies might be forced to pass the increased costs onto customers, which could affect demand, particularly among smaller enterprises or those in price-sensitive industries, potentially slowing market growth.

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How Tariffs are Impacting the Economy

Tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, impacting both production costs and consumer prices. In industries that rely heavily on global supply chains, such as semiconductors, businesses face higher costs for raw materials, components, and finished goods. These increased costs can lead to higher prices for consumers, reducing disposable income and overall demand.

Additionally, tariffs create uncertainty in international trade, which can delay investments and disrupt the smooth flow of materials. Companies may attempt to shift their supply chains or manufacturing bases to lower-tariff regions, but such adjustments often require time and substantial capital. For the MEMS High

Density Probe Cards market, tariffs on semiconductor components, and manufacturing equipment can increase production costs and affect pricing strategies. Moreover, retaliatory tariffs between countries can escalate trade tensions, further complicating global market dynamics and potentially leading to inflationary pressures across sectors.

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US Tariff Impact on Market

US tariffs could have a notable effect on the EdTech for Early Childhood market, particularly in areas involving hardware imports such as tablets, interactive whiteboards, and other essential devices used in digital classrooms.

Increased costs from tariffs could result in higher prices for educational tools, potentially reducing affordability, particularly for private institutions that dominate the market. While larger schools may be able to absorb the additional costs, smaller private institutions might delay or limit investments in EdTech solutions.

The U.S. market, expected to grow at a CAGR of 16.2%, could experience slower growth if these price increases significantly affect purchasing decisions. However, long-term growth prospects remain robust due to strong government support for early childhood education and increasing adoption of digital tools.

US Tariff Impact on Sectors

• Hardware: 5%-7%
• Software Solutions: 4%-6%
• Private Sector Education: 3%-5%

Economic Impact

Tariffs on imported hardware and technology components could drive up the cost of EdTech tools, making them less affordable for institutions, especially in the private sector. This could slow down adoption, particularly among smaller schools and districts with limited budgets, affecting market expansion in the short term.

Geographical Impact

The U.S. market, which dominates the global EdTech for Early Childhood sector, will experience higher costs due to tariffs on imported educational devices. This could slow down growth in North America, especially if tariffs remain high or increase, while other regions may continue growing with lower tariff barriers.

Business Impact

EdTech companies in the U.S. could face increased production costs, which might be passed on to schools and families, reducing demand. Companies may have to seek alternative suppliers or shift production to countries with fewer tariff restrictions, which could affect their profitability and competitive edge in the market.

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Goldman Sachs lowers U.S. auto sales forecast by 1 million units due to tariffs, predicting higher vehicle costs and reduced demand.

Indonesia announces trade concessions to the U.S., reducing import taxes on electronics and steel amid tariff concerns.