Graph and download economic data for Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment (NROU) from Q1 1949 to Q4 2035 about NAIRU, projection, long-term, unemployment, rate, and USA.

United States CBO Projection: Natural Rate of Unemployment data was reported at 4.553 NA in Dec 2028. This records a decrease from the previous number of 4.554 NA for Sep 2028. United States CBO Projection: Natural Rate of Unemployment data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.800 NA from Sep 2002 (Median) to Dec 2028, with 106 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 6.000 NA in Dec 2012 and a record low of 4.553 NA in Dec 2028. United States CBO Projection: Natural Rate of Unemployment data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.G019: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

Graph and download economic data for Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) (NROUST) from Q1 1949 to Q4 2031 about NAIRU, short-term, projection, unemployment, rate, and USA.

United States - Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) was 4.27% in October of 2031, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) reached a record high of 6.24 in April of 1978 and a record low of 4.27 in October of 2031. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Natural Rate of Unemployment (Short-Term) (DISCONTINUED) - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

United States - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment was 4.11% in October of 2035, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment reached a record high of 6.24 in April of 1978 and a record low of 4.11 in October of 2035. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Noncyclical Rate of Unemployment - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

Abstract (en): Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment are important in many macroeconomic models used by economists and policy advisors. This paper shows how such estimates might benefit from closer attention to regional developments. Regional business cycles do not move in lock-step, and greater dispersion among regions can affect estimates of the natural rate of unemployment. There is microeconomic evidence that employers are more reluctant to cut wages than they are to raise them. Accordingly, the relationship between wage inflation and vacancies is convex: An increase in vacancies raises wage inflation at an increasing rate. The authors' empirical results are consistent with this and indicate that if all else had remained constant, the reduction in the dispersion of regional unemployment rates between 1982 and 2000 would have meant a two-percentage-point drop in the natural rate of aggregate unemployment. Files submitted are data file 0401hwd.xls and the program file 0401hwp.txt. These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigator(s) if further information is desired.

Graph and download economic data for Unemployment Rate - Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Occupations (LNU04032222) from Jan 2000 to Sep 2025 about natural resources, occupation, 16 years +, construction, household survey, unemployment, rate, and USA.

Context

This dataset lists the natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) in the U.S., which is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate demand. Estimates of potential GDP are based on the long-term natural rate. The short-term natural rate incorporates structural factors that are temporarily boosting the natural rate beginning in 2008. The short-term natural rate is used to gauge the amount of current and projected slack in labor markets, which is a key input into CBO's projections of inflation.

Content

Data includes the date of the quarterly collection and the natural rate of unemployment from January 1, 1949 through October 1, 2016.

Inspiration

• What is the general trend of unemployment?
• Can you compare this unemployment data with other factors found in any of the BLS databases, such as manufacturing employment rates and GDP?

Acknowledgement

This dataset is part of the US Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics Datasets (the Federal Reserve Economic Data database), and the original source can be found here.

United States - Unemployment Rate - Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Occupations was 3.70% in September of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Unemployment Rate - Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Occupations reached a record high of 20.80 in February of 2010 and a record low of 3.20 in September of 2022. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Unemployment Rate - Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Occupations - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on December of 2025.

United States Unemployment Rate: Natural Resources, Construction & Maintenance data was reported at 4.800 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 4.600 % for May 2018. United States Unemployment Rate: Natural Resources, Construction & Maintenance data is updated monthly, averaging 7.500 % from Jan 2000 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 222 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 20.800 % in Feb 2010 and a record low of 4.000 % in Jul 2000. United States Unemployment Rate: Natural Resources, Construction & Maintenance data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.G018: Current Population Survey: Unemployment Rate.

Graph and download economic data for Unemployment Rate - Native Born (LNU04073413) from Jan 2007 to Sep 2025 about native born, 16 years +, household survey, unemployment, rate, and USA.

United States - Unemployment Level - Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Occupations was 565.00000 Thous. of Persons in September of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Unemployment Level - Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Occupations reached a record high of 3259.00000 in February of 2010 and a record low of 477.00000 in September of 2022. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Unemployment Level - Natural Resources, Construction, and Maintenance Occupations - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on November of 2025.

This paper evaluates the ability of autoregressive models, professional forecasters, and models that leverage unemployment flows to forecast the unemployment rate. We pay particular attention to flows-based approaches—the more reduced form approach of Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) and the more structural method in Tasci (2012)—to generalize whether data on unemployment flows is useful in forecasting the unemployment rate. We find that any approach that leverages unemployment inflow and outflow rates performs well in the near term. Over longer forecast horizons, Tasci (2012) appears to be a useful framework, even though it was designed to be mainly a tool to uncover long-run labor market dynamics such as the “natural” rate. Its usefulness is amplified at specific points in the business cycle when unemployment rate is away from the longer-run natural rate. Judgmental forecasts from professional economists tend to be the single best predictor of future unemployment rates. However, combining those guesses with flows-based approaches yields significant gains in forecasting accuracy.

How should one measure the natural rate of unemployment? This paper proposes a systems procedure as an alternative to NAIRU. The natural rate is treated as an unobserved state variable in a system that includes measurement equations for the unemployment rate, the rate of wage growth and the rate of inflation. The model is derived from a version of the wage bargaining model of Blanchard and embodies a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The model is estimated by embedding the Kalman filter within the full-information maximum likelihood procedure. For US data, the estimated model implies substantial post-war variation in the natural rate and a negative, but weak, effect of inflation surprises on unemployment.

The natural rate of unemployment has declined in the past two decades due to demographic and technological changes.

Unemployment Rate in China decreased to 5.10 percent in October from 5.20 percent in September of 2025. This dataset provides - China Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

The unemployment rate of the United Kingdom was five percent in September 2025, up from 4.8 percent in the previous month, and the highest rate of unemployment since 2021. Before the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK had relatively low levels of unemployment. Between January 2000 and the most recent month, unemployment was highest in November 2011, when the unemployment rate hit 8.5 percent. Will unemployment continue to rise in 2025? Although low by historic standards, there has been a noticeable uptick in the UK's unemployment rate, with other labor market indicators also pointing to further loosening. In December 2024, the number of job vacancies in the UK fell to its lowest level since May 2021, while payrolled employment declined by 47,000 compared with November. Whether this is a continuation of a broader cooling of the labor market since 2022 or a reaction to more recent economic developments, such as upcoming tax rises for employers, remains to be seen. Forecasts made in late 2024 suggest that the unemployment rate will remain relatively stable in 2025, averaging out at 4.1 percent and falling again to four percent in 2026.
Demographics of the unemployed As of the third quarter of 2024, the unemployment rate for men was slightly higher than that of women, at 4.4 percent, compared to 4.1 percent. During the financial crisis at the end of the 2000s, the unemployment rate for women peaked at a quarterly rate of 7.7 percent, whereas for men, the rate was 9.1 percent. Unemployment is also heavily associated with age, and young people in general are far more vulnerable to unemployment than older age groups. In late 2011, for example, the unemployment rate for those aged between 16 and 24 reached 22.3 percent, compared with 8.2 percent for people aged 25 to 34, while older age groups had even lower peaks during this time.

In 2020, the unemployment rate in Ghana was at approximately 3.01 percent of the total labor force. The unemployment rate is the percentage of a country's labor force that are without jobs but are available to work and actively seeking employment. Ghana’s unemployment rate is above the worldwide unemployment rate, and compared to other Sub-Saharan African countries and other regions, Ghana has a relatively average rate of unemployment. Ghana’s population Due to the nature of its economy and its population size of over 30 million people, Ghana’s estimated GDP per capita amounts to just over 2,200 U.S. dollars in 2018 and forecast to rise continually over the next few years. Almost half of the country’s population works in the services sector, and around 33 percent work in agriculture. The population is relatively young, with only around 3 percent of the total population aged 65 years or older. Ghana’s hopeful future One of the most important economic centers of its region, Ghana’s GDP is at over 65 billion U.S. dollars, and it is projected to grow to over 97 billion U.S. dollars by 2024. Ghana is a country with several valuable natural resources, including gold, petroleum, cocoa, and natural gas. The country’s economy is particularly focused on manufacturing and exporting digital technology goods, and industrial materials. Ghana utilizes these exports domestically as well; its mixed economy is increasingly digital based. A regional leader, it has the goal of being the first African nation to become a developed country in the next decade. There are several positive indications encouraging this possibility, such as that GDP has grown each year, albeit at inconsistent rates.

Unemployment Rate in Canada decreased to 6.90 percent in October from 7.10 percent in September of 2025. This dataset provides - Canada Unemployment Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

Unemployment Rate in France increased to 7.70 percent in the third quarter of 2025 from 7.60 percent in the second quarter of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - France Unemployment Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.