US Tariff Impact on Market

The introduction of tariffs on key hydrogen aircraft components in the US is expected to create some challenges for manufacturers and suppliers. With increased tariffs on materials such as fuel cell components, the cost of production for hydrogen aircraft is expected to rise by approximately 18-20%.

This could slow down the adoption rate of hydrogen aircraft in the commercial aviation sector. Despite these challenges, some manufacturers may benefit from local sourcing initiatives to mitigate tariff impacts. As tariffs impact the hydrogen aircraft sector, the price volatility and supply chain disruption could delay project timelines.

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• Economic Impact: Increased tariffs are expected to raise production costs for hydrogen aircraft components, specifically fuel cell technology. This could affect profit margins and increase aircraft prices, potentially reducing demand for hydrogen-powered aircraft in the short term.
• Geographical Impact: North American manufacturers face a significant tariff burden, as the region is home to key production hubs for hydrogen aircraft. This could lead to a shift in manufacturing strategies, including looking for alternative sources outside of the US or reshoring production efforts to avoid tariff costs.
• Business Impact: US-based companies are exploring partnerships and local sourcing alternatives to reduce the impact of tariffs. While this may increase operational costs, it could also lead to greater supply chain resilience, positioning businesses to meet long-term demand for hydrogen aircraft more efficiently.

US Tariff Impact on Market

US tariffs on imported Bitcoin-related technologies, such as mining equipment and hardware for blockchain infrastructure, could have a significant impact on the market. The imposition of tariffs may increase the cost of production for miners, affecting the overall cost structure of Bitcoin. These increases in hardware prices could slow the adoption of Bitcoin mining, especially for smaller-scale miners.

Furthermore, higher costs for blockchain infrastructure could discourage new players from entering the market, reducing the speed of innovation. The Exchanges segment, which constitutes a substantial portion of market share, could also face additional operational costs due to tariffs on technology and software products essential for trading platforms. The tariff increase is expected to range from 10% to 20%, depending on the product, potentially adding significant operational expenses to Bitcoin-related services and products.

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US Tariff Impact on Market

The introduction of tariffs on electronic components has had a noticeable impact on the global ultra-low-power microcontroller market. In particular, sectors heavily reliant on imported raw materials and components have faced supply chain disruptions, increased production costs, and shifts in market dynamics. These tariffs primarily impact the consumer electronics and peripheral device segments, with an expected tariff impact of approximately 20-25% on affected components.

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• Economic Impact: Increased tariffs on microcontroller components have led to heightened costs for manufacturers, reducing profit margins. However, some companies are looking to pass on the costs to consumers, which may affect the overall market demand.
• Geographical Impact: The US market, a major hub for microcontroller consumption, faces a direct tariff burden, especially for products imported from regions like Asia. This has caused shifts in sourcing strategies, prompting manufacturers to explore alternatives outside of tariff-impacted regions.
• Business Impact: Companies are exploring innovative solutions, such as reshoring production or shifting to local suppliers, to mitigate the negative effects of tariffs. These adjustments could increase operational costs but potentially offer long-term benefits by enhancing supply chain resilience.

This data package includes the underlying data to replicate the charts, tables, and calculations presented in The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs, PIIE Briefing 25-2.

If you use the data, please cite as:

McKibbin, Warwick, and Geoffrey Shuetrim. 2025. The US Revenue Implications of President Trump’s 2025 Tariffs. PIIE Briefing 25-2. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.

US Tariff Impact on Market

The US tariff policies have significantly impacted the global trade management market, leading to both opportunities and challenges for businesses. In particular, tariffs on imported goods have increased the complexity of managing cross-border trade, requiring businesses to implement more sophisticated trade management solutions.

As companies face rising costs due to tariffs, the demand for trade management systems that help optimize customs compliance, minimize duties, and streamline logistics has surged. Furthermore, sectors such as manufacturing, retail, and transportation have felt the brunt of these tariffs, with industries directly impacted by increased trade barriers.

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For example, the retail sector has seen a rise in goods costs, ultimately affecting margins. The US tariff impact on sectors like manufacturing and retail is approximately 10-15% as they deal with higher raw material costs and inventory disruptions. Companies now look for more automation and integrated solutions to mitigate these costs and streamline operations.

➤ Economic Impact

The US tariffs have led to an increased cost of imports, pushing businesses to adopt more efficient trade management systems. As tariffs increase, businesses are forced to reevaluate their supply chain strategies, leading to higher operational costs. In the long term, this could prompt global shifts in trade flows.

➤ Geographical Impact

US tariffs have disproportionately affected countries with high trade volumes with the US, especially China, Mexico, and Canada. As tariffs increase, businesses in these regions must adapt to higher costs and potential disruptions. This shift influences regional trade agreements and the movement of goods, altering global trade dynamics.

➤ Business Impact

US tariffs have forced businesses to invest in advanced trade management technologies to mitigate the effects of increased import duties and logistical delays. Companies are now focusing on automation, compliance optimization, and cost-effective solutions to navigate the growing complexities of international trade. Small and medium-sized enterprises face considerable challenges.

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US Tariff Impact on Market

US tariffs on imported technology components, including sensors and software used in affective computing systems, could increase production costs, thereby raising prices for both manufacturers and consumers. Affective computing systems rely heavily on sensors and speech recognition technology, which are often sourced from global suppliers.

Tariffs could lead to price increases of up to 15% for affected sectors, particularly sensors and software components, impacting the overall affordability of these technologies. This may slow adoption, especially in industries like healthcare and automotive, where cost-efficiency is crucial.

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• Economic Impact: Higher costs due to tariffs could make affective computing technologies less affordable for businesses and consumers, potentially reducing market growth.
• Geographical Impact: The US, as a key market, may see slower adoption of these technologies, especially in the healthcare and automotive sectors, due to price hikes.
• Business Impact: Companies may face margin pressures, leading to reduced profitability or the need to pass on higher costs to end consumers, slowing market expansion.

Key Takeaways:

• The affective computing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 32.5%, reaching USD 1,130.8 billion by 2033.
• Healthcare, automotive, and advertising sectors are major drivers of market growth.
• US tariffs could lead to a 15% increase in prices for affected technology components.
• Touch-based technology and speech recognition software are dominant segments.
• North America holds the largest market share due to strong technological infrastructure.

Introduction

The global semiconductor industry is currently facing significant challenges due to the imposition of tariffs, which have disrupted supply chains and increased production costs. These tariffs, particularly those introduced by the U.S. administration, have led to a reevaluation of manufacturing strategies across the sector. In 2025, the United States imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese semiconductor imports, prompting retaliatory tariffs of 125% from China. These measures have significantly strained the global semiconductor supply chain, leading to increased costs and uncertainties for manufacturers and consumers alike.

For instance, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has projected a revenue impact of $1.5 billion in 2025 due to new U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI chip shipments to China, a market that accounts for over 24% of AMD's revenue. Similarly, the German chip-equipment maker Suss MicroTec has warned that new U.S. tariffs could severely disrupt global semiconductor supply chains and potentially trigger a worldwide recession. These developments underscore the far-reaching implications of trade policies on the semiconductor industry, affecting not only corporate revenues but also the broader global economy.

Around 30% of businesses are currently adopting a wait-and-watch approach toward the ongoing uncertainty surrounding semiconductor tariffs. This cautious stance reflects growing concerns over supply chain unpredictability. In contrast, before the introduction of the Trump-era tariffs, nearly 61% of companies had already started reshaping their procurement strategies, actively exploring alternative suppliers. This shift was largely driven by heightened geopolitical tensions, evolving global trade policies, and new market barriers, all of which increased the complexity of international semiconductor trade. Businesses now demand greater transparency to make informed decisions in this rapidly changing environment.

US Tariff Impact on Market

U.S. tariffs on imported components, such as semiconductor chips, AI processors, and cloud infrastructure, have raised production costs for personal AI assistant technology providers. Many of these components are sourced from regions like Asia, where tariff increases have resulted in higher prices for the hardware necessary for AI assistants.

As a result, U.S.-based manufacturers may pass these increased costs onto consumers, potentially slowing adoption, especially among small to medium enterprises (SMEs). The impact of tariffs is particularly significant in the chatbot and customer service application segments, where scalability and efficiency are critical. U.S. tariffs are estimated to affect 10-15% of the personal AI assistant market, with cloud-based AI assistants and natural language processing technologies being the most impacted.

US Tariff Impact Percentage for Impacted Sector

The U.S. tariffs have impacted approximately 10-15% of the personal AI assistant market, particularly affecting chatbot solutions and cloud-based AI assistants that rely on imported semiconductor chips and cloud infrastructure.

Sources for US Tariff Impact Data

• Impact of Tariffs on Semiconductor and Cloud Technology: U.S. tariffs increase costs for AI hardware and cloud components.
• Cost Increases Due to Tariffs: Tariff-related price hikes for AI assistants.
• Adjustments in AI Supply Chain: U.S. companies exploring local production to mitigate tariff effects.

Economic Impact

• U.S. tariffs on critical components have raised production costs for personal AI assistants.
• Increased prices may deter adoption, particularly among cost-sensitive customers and SMEs.
• Despite these cost increases, the market remains robust due to strong demand across various sectors like customer service and entertainment.

Geographical Impact

• North America, especially the U.S., faces higher costs due to tariffs, which could slow adoption in certain applications.
• Asia-Pacific remains largely unaffected by U.S. tariffs, maintaining competitive production capabilities.
• Europe experiences moderate impacts but benefits from a diversified supply chain and reduced reliance on tariff-impacted regions.

Business Impact

• U.S. AI assistant manufacturers face higher operational costs, impacting profitability and pricing strategies.
• Price hikes could limit the adoption of personal AI assistants in smaller businesses.
• Companies are investing in local production and alternative suppliers to mitigate t...

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US Tariff Impact on Market

The livestock farming technology market is vulnerable to changes in US tariffs, particularly on equipment imported from countries such as China and other international suppliers. US tariffs could lead to an increase in production costs, raising prices for essential farming technologies like IoT sensors, automated feeding systems, and milking robotics.

These higher prices may hinder adoption, especially among smaller or rural farms that are already constrained by financial limitations. It is estimated that tariffs could lead to an increase in costs by up to 25% for certain imported technologies.

For farmers, this could result in delayed investments or a shift towards less sophisticated, lower-cost alternatives, potentially impacting the overall growth of the market in the US. Companies within the US may also need to source domestically or from other countries not impacted by tariffs, which could disrupt existing supply chains.

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• Economic Impact: Increased tariffs will lead to higher costs for both manufacturers and farmers, limiting the affordability of livestock farming technology, particularly for small-scale operations.
• Geographical Impact: US farms, especially in rural areas, will be more affected by price hikes due to reliance on international suppliers. This could result in slower adoption rates in these regions.
• Business Impact: Manufacturers and tech companies will need to re-evaluate their supply chains and may be forced to pass the cost increases to farmers, negatively affecting sales and profitability.

US Tariff Impact on Market

US tariffs on external storage products, such as hard drives, solid-state drives (SSDs), and related components, are likely to impact the external storage market. The tariffs on imports from key manufacturing hubs like China could result in increased product prices, potentially slowing down adoption, especially in the consumer electronics sector. These tariff hikes could affect the overall pricing structure of external storage devices, making them more expensive for consumers and businesses.

The professional optical storage segment may also face challenges due to the increased cost of optical drives and related technology components. These higher costs might hinder market expansion, particularly in the price-sensitive markets of North America. The tariff increase is estimated to be between 10%-25%, depending on the type of product, leading to a ripple effect across the supply chain.

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US Tariff Impact on Market

The U.S. semiconductor track system market has faced challenges due to tariffs on semiconductor imports, which have affected both cost structures and global sourcing strategies.

With the U.S. imposing tariffs on semiconductor components, the cost of production for semiconductor track systems has increased, particularly for memory chips and fully automatic systems, leading to higher prices for U.S. consumers and manufacturers.

The tariffs on Chinese imports, especially in semiconductor manufacturing, have disrupted global supply chains, prompting many companies to consider domestic sourcing or alternative regions. This shift may encourage more local production and increase demand for domestic manufacturing of semiconductor track systems.

However, this could also lead to a rise in operational costs for companies that rely on imported parts, potentially slowing down growth in the short term but creating opportunities for U.S.-based manufacturers to increase their market share.

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• Economic Impact: Increased production costs due to tariffs may lead to higher prices for semiconductor track systems.
• Geographical Impact: U.S. manufacturers face higher component costs, leading to changes in supply chains and sourcing strategies.
• Business Impact: Companies may invest in local production to mitigate the impact of tariffs, but this could lead to increased operational expenses in the short term.

Impact Percentage on Sectors

• Memory Chips: +10-12%
• Fully-Automatic Systems: +8-10%

US Tariff Impact on Market

US tariffs could significantly impact the global military sensors market, especially as many key components, including software, hardware, and sensor materials, are imported from other regions. A 3-5% increase in production costs could result from tariffs on essential components like semiconductors, optics, and communication devices, crucial for military sensors.

This could raise the overall cost of military sensors, which may hinder the affordability of these technologies for defense contractors, particularly in budget-sensitive markets. Additionally, supply chain disruptions from tariffs could delay production timelines, especially for specialized sensor components used in land-based military platforms and communication/navigation systems.

Although larger defense contractors may absorb these additional costs, smaller businesses may struggle with tariff-related price increases. Despite these challenges, the long-term market growth remains robust, as nations continue investing heavily in defense systems, and technological advancements push demand for more sophisticated sensors in defense applications.

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Economic Impact

• Tariffs could increase production costs by 3-5%, slowing market growth.
• Rising costs may reduce affordability, especially in defense budget allocations.
• Delays in supply chains could hinder the timely delivery of critical sensor components.

Geographical Impact

• North America, the leading region, may face higher costs due to increased component tariffs.
• Supply chain disruptions in Asia could impact the availability of specialized military sensors.
• Other regions may shift production or seek non-tariffed alternatives to mitigate cost increases.

Business Impact

• Manufacturers may need to adjust pricing to reflect increased production costs.
• Smaller companies might face difficulties absorbing tariff-induced cost increases.
• Delays in component availability could impact the timely development of military sensor technologies.

US Tariff Impact Percentage for Impacted Sector

The software and communication/navigation components, which dominate the market, could face a 3-5% increase in production costs due to tariffs on key imported materials, potentially leading to higher prices for military sensors and slowing adoption in price-sensitive defense sectors.