In the past four centuries, the population of the Thirteen Colonies and United States of America has grown from a recorded 350 people around the Jamestown colony in Virginia in 1610, to an estimated 346 million in 2025. While the fertility rate has now dropped well below replacement level, and the population is on track to go into a natural decline in the 2040s, projected high net immigration rates mean the population will continue growing well into the next century, crossing the 400 million mark in the 2070s. Indigenous population Early population figures for the Thirteen Colonies and United States come with certain caveats. Official records excluded the indigenous population, and they generally remained excluded until the late 1800s. In 1500, in the first decade of European colonization of the Americas, the native population living within the modern U.S. borders was believed to be around 1.9 million people. The spread of Old World diseases, such as smallpox, measles, and influenza, to biologically defenseless populations in the New World then wreaked havoc across the continent, often wiping out large portions of the population in areas that had not yet made contact with Europeans. By the time of Jamestown's founding in 1607, it is believed the native population within current U.S. borders had dropped by almost 60 percent. As the U.S. expanded, indigenous populations were largely still excluded from population figures as they were driven westward, however taxpaying Natives were included in the census from 1870 to 1890, before all were included thereafter. It should be noted that estimates for indigenous populations in the Americas vary significantly by source and time period. Migration and expansion fuels population growth The arrival of European settlers and African slaves was the key driver of population growth in North America in the 17th century. Settlers from Britain were the dominant group in the Thirteen Colonies, before settlers from elsewhere in Europe, particularly Germany and Ireland, made a large impact in the mid-19th century. By the end of the 19th century, improvements in transport technology and increasing economic opportunities saw migration to the United States increase further, particularly from southern and Eastern Europe, and in the first decade of the 1900s the number of migrants to the U.S. exceeded one million people in some years. It is also estimated that almost 400,000 African slaves were transported directly across the Atlantic to mainland North America between 1500 and 1866 (although the importation of slaves was abolished in 1808). Blacks made up a much larger share of the population before slavery's abolition. Twentieth and twenty-first century The U.S. population has grown steadily since 1900, reaching one hundred million in the 1910s, two hundred million in the 1960s, and three hundred million in 2007. Since WWII, the U.S. has established itself as the world's foremost superpower, with the world's largest economy, and most powerful military. This growth in prosperity has been accompanied by increases in living standards, particularly through medical advances, infrastructure improvements, clean water accessibility. These have all contributed to higher infant and child survival rates, as well as an increase in life expectancy (doubling from roughly 40 to 80 years in the past 150 years), which have also played a large part in population growth. As fertility rates decline and increases in life expectancy slows, migration remains the largest factor in population growth. Since the 1960s, Latin America has now become the most common origin for migrants in the U.S., while immigration rates from Asia have also increased significantly. It remains to be seen how immigration restrictions of the current administration affect long-term population projections for the United States.

The Georeferenced U.S. County-Level Population Projections, Total and by Sex, Race and Age, Based on the SSPs, 2020-2100 consists of county-level population projection scenarios of total population, and by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for all U.S. counties for the period 2020 - 2100. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States in the near, middle- and long-term.

From now until 2100, India and China will remain the most populous countries in the world, however China's population decline has already started, and it is on course to fall by around 50 percent in the 2090s; while India's population decline is projected to begin in the 2060s. Of the 10 most populous countries in the world in 2100, five will be located in Asia, four in Africa, as well as the United States. Rapid growth in Africa Rapid population growth across Africa will see the continent's population grow from around 1.5 billion people in 2024 to 3.8 billion in 2100. Additionally, unlike China or India, population growth in many of these countries is not expected to go into decline, and instead is expected to continue well into the 2100s. Previous estimates had projected these countries' populations would be much higher by 2100 (the 2019 report estimated Nigeria's population would exceed 650 million), yet the increased threat of the climate crisis and persistent instability is delaying demographic development and extending population growth. The U.S. as an outlier Compared to the nine other largest populations in 2100, the United States stands out as it is more demographically advanced, politically stable, and economically stronger. However, while most other so-called "advanced countries" are projected to see their population decline drastically in the coming decades, the U.S. population is projected to continue growing into the 2100s. This will largely be driven by high rates of immigration into the U.S., which will drive growth despite fertility rates being around 1.6 births per woman (below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman), and the slowing rate of life expectancy. Current projections estimate the U.S. will have a net migration rate over 1.2 million people per year for the remainder of the century.

Future county population was based on projections for 2100 from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM; Theobald 2005). SERGoM simulates population based on existing patterns of growth by census block, groundwater well and road density, and transportation distance to urban areas, while constraining the pattern of development to areas outside of protected areas and urban areas (Theobald 2005). The dataset here is a projection for a “baseline” growth scenario that assumes a similar trajectory to that of current urban growth (Bierwagen et al. 2010). SERGoM accuracy is estimated as 79–99% when compared to 1990 and 2000 census data, with the accuracy varying by urban/exurban/rural categories and increasing slightly with coarser resolution (Theobald 2005). The accuracy of future model predictions with different economic scenarios is most sensitive to fertility rates, which are subject to cultural change, economic recessions, and the current pattern of lands protected from development (Bierwagen et al. 2010). Bierwagen, B. G., D. M. Theobald, C. R. Pyke, A. Choate, P. Groth, J. V. Thomas, and P. Morefield. 2010. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107:20887-20892. Theobald, D. M. 2005. Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecology and Society 10: article 32.

In terms of the share of its total population, the Lower Florida Keys are most at risk to homes being flooded by rising sea levels, with ** percent of its residents living in dwellings expected to be flooded by 2060. Although Chesapeake, Virginia has a relatively small percentage of its population at risk, the number of inhabitants living in homes expected to be flooded is very large.

The Georeferenced U.S. County-Level Population Projections, Total and by Sex, Race and Age, Based on the SSPs, 2020-2100 consists of county-level population projection scenarios of total population, and by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for all U.S. counties for the period 2020 - 2100. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States in the near, middle- and long-term.

The methodology used to produce these projections differs from ICLUS v2.0 (https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/iclus/recordisplay.cfm?deid=322479). The demographic components of change (i.e., rates of fertility and mortality) for ICLUS v2.1 were taken directly from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer (http://witt.null2.net/shiny/wic/). These projections were produced more recently than the Census projections used in ICLUS v2.0, and incorporate more recent observations of population change. SSP2 is a “middle-of-the-road” projection, where social, economic and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns, resulting in a U.S. population of 455 million people by 2100. Domestic migration trends remain largely consistent with the recent past, however the amenity value of local climate (average precipitation and temperature for summer and winter) is used in ICLUS v2.1.1 to influence migration patterns. The name of the climate model used as the source of future climate patterns is included at the end of the file name (e.g., "GISS-E2-R" or "HadGEM2-ES"). The approach for incorporating climate change into the migration model is described in the ICLUS v2.0 documentation. The SSP5 narrative describes a rapidly growing and flourishing global economy that remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and a U.S. population that exceeds 730 million by 2100. ICLUS v2.1 land use projections under SSP5 result in a considerably larger expansion of developed lands relative to SSP2. The the amenity value of local climate (average precipitation and temperature for summer and winter) is used in ICLUS v2.1.1 to influence migration patterns. The name of the climate model used as the source of future climate patterns is included at the end of the file name (e.g., "GISS-E2-R" or "HadGEM2-ES"). The approach for incorporating climate change into the migration model is described in the ICLUS v2.0 documentation. RCP4.5 assumes that global greenhoue gas emissions increase into the latter part of the century, before leveling off and eventually stabilizing by 2100 as a result of various climate change policies. RCP8.5 assumes that global greenhoue gas emissions increase through the year 2100.

County population projections broken down by year, age, race, and gender (2020-2100) for use with GIS mapping software, databases, and web applications.

In Miami Beach, Florida, around ****** residents live in homes at risk to being flooded by 2060 due to rising sea levels. Florida has many cities that may be lost to coastal erosion as a result of sea level rise, as well as storm surges. The significance of sea level rise is particularly great for the many cities with high values of assets that are under threat.

This dataset consist of annual (2020-2100) county-level population projections for the United States (U.S.) for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5. The original decadal state-level data is used as an input to the gridded population data model to downscale the state-level projections for each SSP to a 1 km grid. The 1 km data is then aggregated to the county-level using the 2020 TIGER/Line county shapefiles from the U.S. Census Bureau. The two data files are shared as .csv files with the following structure: Rows = Data for individual counties which are identified using their Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code. The FIPS code is stored in the first column. Columns = Each year from 2020-2100 is an individual column. For easier reference, the state name associated with each row is stored in the last column. Values in each cell are the downscaled estimated population for that county-year combination. Values are fractional due to the weighting scheme used in the downscaling. The paper and model source code cited in the "Related Works" section describes the initial source of the population projections.

The Country-Level Population and Downscaled Projections Based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1, B1, and A2 Scenarios, 1990-2100, were adopted in 2000 from population projections realized at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in 1996. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) SRES A1 and B1 scenarios both used the same IIASA "rapid" fertility transition projection, which assumes low fertility and low mortality rates. The SRES A2 scenario used a corresponding IIASA "slow" fertility transition projection (high fertility and high mortality rates). Both IIASA low and high projections are performed for 13 world regions including North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, China and Centrally Planned Asia, Pacific Asia, Pacific OECD, Central Asia, Middle East, South Asia, Eastern Europe, European part of the former Soviet Union, Western Europe, Latin America, and North America. This data set is produced and distributed by the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN).

Midyear population estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world with a population of 5,000 or more // Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center// Note: Total population available from 1950 to 2100 for 227 countries and areas. Other demographic variables available from base year to 2100. Base year varies by country and therefore data are not available for all years for all countries. See methodologyhttps://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/idb.html

Between 1800 and 2021, the total population of each continent experienced consistent growth, however as growth rates varied by region, population distribution has fluctuated. In the early 19th century, almost 70 percent of the world's population lived in Asia, while fewer than 10 percent lived in Africa. By the end of this century, it is believed that Asia's share will fall to roughly 45 percent, while Africa's will be on course to reach 40 percent. 19th and 20th centuries Fewer than 2.5 percent of the world's population lived in the Americas in 1800, however the demographic transition, along with waves of migration, would see this share rise to almost 10 percent a century later, peaking at almost 14 percent in the 1960s. Europe's share of the global population also grew in the 19th century, to roughly a quarter in 1900, but fell thereafter and saw the largest relative decline during the 20th century. Asia, which has consistently been the world's most populous continent, saw its population share drop by the mid-1900s, but it has been around 60 percent since the 1970s. It is important to note that the world population has grown from approximately one to eight billion people between 1800 and the 2020s, and that declines in population distribution before 2020 have resulted from different growth rates across the continents. 21st century Africa's population share remained fairly constant throughout this time, fluctuating between 7.5 and 10 percent until the late-1900s, but it is set to see the largest change over the 21st century. As Europe's total population is now falling, and it is estimated that the total populations of Asia and the Americas will fall by the 2050s and 2070s respectively, rapid population growth in Africa will see a significant shift in population distribution. Africa's population is predicted to grow from 1.3 to 3.9 billion people over the next eight decades, and its share of the total population will rise to almost 40 percent. The only other continent whose population will still be growing at this time will be Oceania, although its share of the total population has never been more than 0.7 percent.

Belarus BY: Population Projection: Mid Year data was reported at 6,181,724.000 Person in 2100. This records a decrease from the previous number of 6,215,488.000 Person for 2099. Belarus BY: Population Projection: Mid Year data is updated yearly, averaging 8,784,282.000 Person from Jun 1950 (Median) to 2100, with 151 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 10,250,139.000 Person in 1993 and a record low of 6,181,724.000 Person in 2100. Belarus BY: Population Projection: Mid Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Belarus – Table BY.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

Australia Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data was reported at 0.300 % in 2100. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.300 % for 2099. Australia Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 0.750 % from Jun 1986 (Median) to 2100, with 115 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.230 % in 2008 and a record low of 0.300 % in 2100. Australia Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Australia – Table AU.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

Algeria DZ: Population Projection: Mid Year data was reported at 77,291,555.000 Person in 2100. This records an increase from the previous number of 77,271,969.000 Person for 2099. Algeria DZ: Population Projection: Mid Year data is updated yearly, averaging 47,735,685.000 Person from Jun 1950 (Median) to 2100, with 151 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 77,291,555.000 Person in 2100 and a record low of 8,892,718.000 Person in 1950. Algeria DZ: Population Projection: Mid Year data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Algeria – Table DZ.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

This layer shares SEDAC's population projections for U.S. counties for 2020-2100 in increments of 5 years, for each of five population projection scenarios known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). This layer supports mapping, data visualizations, analysis and data exports. Before using this layer, read: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview by Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds, Brian C. O’Neill, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Rob Dellink, Oliver Fricko, Wolfgang Lutz, Alexander Popp, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Samir KC, Marian Leimbach, Leiwen Jiang, Tom Kram, Shilpa Rao, Johannes Emmerling, Kristie Ebi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Lara Aleluia Da Silva, Steve Smith, Elke Stehfest, Valentina Bosetti, Jiyong Eom, David Gernaat, Toshihiko Masui, Joeri Rogelj, Jessica Strefler, Laurent Drouet, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Mathijs Harmsen, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Lavinia Baumstark, Jonathan C. Doelman, Mikiko Kainuma, Zbigniew Klimont, Giacomo Marangoni, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Michael Obersteiner, Andrzej Tabeau, Massimo Tavoni. Global Environmental Change, Volume 42, 2017, Pages 153-168, ISSN 0959-3780, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009. From the 2017 paper: "The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature." According to SEDAC, the purpose of this data is: "To provide subnational (county) population projection scenarios for the United States essential for understanding long-term demographic changes, planning for the future, and decision-making in a variety of applications." According to Francesco Bassetti of Foresight, "The SSP’s baseline worlds are useful because they allow us to see how different socioeconomic factors impact climate change. They include: a world of sustainability-focused growth and equality (SSP1); a “middle of the road” world where trends broadly follow their historical patterns (SSP2); a fragmented world of “resurgent nationalism” (SSP3); a world of ever-increasing inequality (SSP4);a world of rapid and unconstrained growth in economic output and energy use (SSP5).There are seven sublayers, each with county boundaries and an identical set of attribute fields containing projections for these seven groupings across the five SSPs and nine decades.Total PopulationBlack Non-Hispanic PopulationWhite Non-Hispanic PopulationOther Non-Hispanic PopulationHispanic PopulationMale PopulationFemale Population Methodology: Documentation for the Georeferenced U.S. County-Level Population Projections, Total and by Sex, Race and Age, Based on the SSPs, v1 (2020 – 2100) Data currency: This layer was created from a shapefile downloaded April 18, 2023 from SEDAC's Georeferenced U.S. County-Level Population Projections, Total and by Sex, Race and Age, Based on the SSPs, v1 (2020 – 2100) Enhancements found in this layer: Every field was given a field alias and field description created from SEDAC's Data Dictionary downloaded April 18, 2023. Citation: Hauer, M., and Center for International Earth Science Information Network - CIESIN - Columbia University. 2021. Georeferenced U.S. County-Level Population Projections, Total and by Sex, Race and Age, Based on the SSPs, 2020-2100. Palisades, New York: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi.org/10.7927/dv72-s254. Accessed 18 April 2023. Hauer, M. E. 2019. Population Projections for U.S. Counties by Age, Sex, and Race Controlled to Shared Socioeconomic Pathway. Scientific Data 6: 190005. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2019.5. Distribution Liability: CIESIN follows procedures designed to ensure that data disseminated by CIESIN are of reasonable quality. If, despite these procedures, users encounter apparent errors or misstatements in the data, they should contact SEDAC User Services at +1 845-465-8920 or via email at ciesin.info@ciesin.columbia.edu. Neither CIESIN nor NASA verifies or guarantees the accuracy, reliability, or completeness of any data provided. CIESIN provides this data without warranty of any kind whatsoever, either expressed or implied. CIESIN shall not be liable for incidental, consequential, or special damages arising out of the use of any data provided by CIESIN.

Algeria DZ: Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data was reported at 0.020 % in 2100. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.040 % for 2099. Algeria DZ: Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 1.105 % from Jun 1987 (Median) to 2100, with 114 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.820 % in 1987 and a record low of 0.020 % in 2100. Algeria DZ: Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Algeria – Table DZ.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the Wrangell City and Borough population over the last 20 plus years. It lists the population for each year, along with the year on year change in population, as well as the change in percentage terms for each year. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population change of Wrangell City and Borough across the last two decades. For example, using this dataset, we can identify if the population is declining or increasing. If there is a change, when the population peaked, or if it is still growing and has not reached its peak. We can also compare the trend with the overall trend of United States population over the same period of time.

Key observations

In 2022, the population of Wrangell City and Borough was 2,070, a 1.43% decrease year-by-year from 2021. Previously, in 2021, Wrangell City and Borough population was 2,100, a decline of 1.27% compared to a population of 2,127 in 2020. Over the last 20 plus years, between 2000 and 2022, population of Wrangell City and Borough decreased by 365. In this period, the peak population was 2,521 in the year 2018. The numbers suggest that the population has already reached its peak and is showing a trend of decline. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Data Coverage:

• From 2000 to 2022

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column displays the data year (Measured annually and for years 2000 to 2022)
• Population: The population for the specific year for the Wrangell City and Borough is shown in this column.
• Year on Year Change: This column displays the change in Wrangell City and Borough population for each year compared to the previous year.
• Change in Percent: This column displays the year on year change as a percentage. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for Wrangell City and Borough Population by Year. You can refer the same here

This statistic shows the median age of the world population from 1950 to 2100. By 2100, the global median age is projected to be 41.9 years of age.