The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q4 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities was 0.48% in April of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities reached a record high of 100.00 in March of 2020 and a record low of 0.00 in November of 1967. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on June of 2025.

Probability of Recession: United States data was reported at 0.995 % in Mar 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.031 % for Feb 2025. Probability of Recession: United States data is updated monthly, averaging 1.564 % from Jan 1980 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 543 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 87.972 % in May 2020 and a record low of 0.021 % in Jan 1980. Probability of Recession: United States data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by CEIC Data. The data is categorized under World Trend Plus’s CEIC Leading Indicator – Table US.S002: Probability of Recession.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 6.80000 Percentage Points in October of 2024, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 15 Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER-Based Recession Indicators from the Peak Through the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

In 2020, global gross domestic product declined by 6.7 percent as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. In Latin America, overall GDP loss amounted to 8.5 percent.

GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data was reported at 6.800 % Point in Dec 2024. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.300 % Point for Sep 2024. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data is updated quarterly, averaging 7.900 % Point from Dec 1967 (Median) to Dec 2024, with 229 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % Point in Jun 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % Point in Sep 2020. GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S094: GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index.

Based on the number of deaths of despair in 2018 and projected levels of unemployment from 2020 to 2029, it is estimated that the additional number of deaths in 2023 could range from 2,017 to 21,457 depending on the rate of economic recovery after the COVID-19 recession. This statistic shows the possible additional deaths of despair following the COVID-19 recession for select economic scenarios, given a 1.6 percent increase in unemployment, in the United States from 2020 to 2029.

According to recent estimates, the most affected sectors by the coronavirus pandemic in Latin America would be wholesale and retail trade as well as services in general, such as tourism, foodservice, transport, and communications. In 2020, this group of most affected sectors was forecasted to represent more than 16 percent of Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP). Among the countries shown in this graph, Brazil is the nation where sectors moderately affected by the pandemic could represent the highest contribution to GDP (75.8 percent).

Which Latin American economies were most vulnerable to the pandemic? In 2020, the economic sectors most affected by the coronavirus pandemic - wholesale and retail, hotels and restaurants, transport and services in general - were forecasted to account for 35.5 percent of Panama’s GDP. In addition, the moderately and most affected economic segments were estimated to contribute the most to Panama’s GDP (a combined 97.6 percent) than any other country in this region. A similar scenario was projected in Mexico, where the sectors that would least suffer the pandemic's negative effects would account for only 3.4 percent of GDP.

Did the pandemic put a stop to economic growth in Latin America? Economic growth changed dramatically after the COVID-19 outbreak. Most of the largest economies in Latin America fell under recession in 2020. Estimates predict a more optimistic scenario for 2021, with countries such as Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina growing their GDP at least five percent.

Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data was reported at 0.840 % in Mar 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 0.180 % for Feb 2025. Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data is updated monthly, averaging 0.150 % from Jun 1967 (Median) to Mar 2025, with 694 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 100.000 % in Apr 2020 and a record low of 0.000 % in Mar 2021. Jeremy Piger Smoothed Recession Probabilities data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S089: Jeremy Piger Smooth Recession Probabilities.

United States NBER based Recession Indi frm the Peak to the Pd Prcdng the Trough data was reported at 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.000 Unit for 13 May 2025. United States NBER based Recession Indi frm the Peak to the Pd Prcdng the Trough data is updated daily, averaging 0.000 Unit from Dec 1854 (Median) to 14 May 2025, with 62256 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 Unit in 31 Mar 2020 and a record low of 0.000 Unit in 14 May 2025. United States NBER based Recession Indi frm the Peak to the Pd Prcdng the Trough data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: NBER-Based Recession Indicators.

This is the code replication archive for the paper, "The COVID-19 Baby Bump in the United States," forthcoming in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The underlying natality microdata are restricted, so this archive contains only the code to replicate our analysis.We use natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in U.S. fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all U.S. births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall “baby bump” among U.S.-born mothers which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to U.S.-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a pre-pandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was most pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education. The 2021-2022 baby bump is especially remarkable given the large declines in fertility rates that would have been projected by standard statistical models.

The trajectory of new business applications and transitions to employer businesses differ markedly during the Great Recession and COVID-19 Recession. Both applications and transitions to employer startups decreased slowly but persistently in the post-Lehman crisis period of the Great Recession. In contrast, during the COVID-19 Recession new applications initially declined but have since sharply rebounded, resulting in a surge in applications during 2020. Projected transitions to employer businesses also rise but this is dampened by a change in the composition of applications in 2020 towards applications that are more likely to be nonemployers.

In a V-shpaed recession, it is projected that European manufacturing companies will have a positive EBIT margin of four percent, already a significant decline from the pre-pandemic EBIT margin of seven percent. The V-shaped recession is the least severe type of recession. Different types of hypothetical economic scenarios paint a mixed picture of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on earnings produced by European manufacturing companies. Depending on the severity of the recession, the amount of profit a company would generate differs. A U-shaped recession would result in an EBIT margin contraction of two percent, while the most severe type of recession, the L-shaped recession, would result in an EBIT margin slump of 19 percent. Thus, in the last two scenarios, companies would face significant losses in profit compared to the pre-pandemic status.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

United States Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: sa data was reported at 0.270 % Point in Apr 2025. This stayed constant from the previous number of 0.270 % Point for Mar 2025. United States Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: sa data is updated monthly, averaging 0.070 % Point from Dec 1959 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 785 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 9.500 % Point in Jun 2020 and a record low of -0.370 % Point in Sep 2021. United States Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator: sa data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S: Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator.

The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States from 1987 to 2024, with projections up until 2030. The gross domestic product of the United States in 2024 amounted to around 29.18 trillion U.S. dollars. The United States and the economy The United States’ economy is by far the largest in the world; a status which can be determined by several key factors, one being gross domestic product: A look at the GDP of the main industrialized and emerging countries shows a significant difference between US GDP and the GDP of China, the runner-up in the ranking, as well as the followers Japan, Germany and France. Interestingly, it is assumed that China will have surpassed the States in terms of GDP by 2030, but for now, the United States is among the leading countries in almost all other relevant rankings and statistics, trade and employment for example. See the U.S. GDP growth rate here. Just like in other countries, the American economy suffered a severe setback when the economic crisis occurred in 2008. The American economy entered a recession caused by the collapsing real estate market and increasing unemployment. Despite this, the standard of living is considered quite high; life expectancy in the United States has been continually increasing slightly over the past decade, the unemployment rate in the United States has been steadily recovering and decreasing since the crisis, and the Big Mac Index, which represents the global prices for a Big Mac, a popular indicator for the purchasing power of an economy, shows that the United States’ purchasing power in particular is only slightly lower than that of the euro area.