By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

A recession is due in the U.S. in 2023, according to a majority of macroeconomists in a June 2022 survey. Opinions varied, however, on when in 2023 this new recession could start exactly. Most respondents - 38 percent - believed the economic downturn most likely start in the first half of 2023. Meanwhile, 30 percent said that it would begin in the latter half of that year. Most Americans thought differently on this topic, believing that the country was already experiencing an economic recession in June 2022. The macroeconomists cited both geopolitical tensions and the increasing costs of energy as the main reasons why pressure would remain on U.S. inflation.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and March 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

Short-term and floating-rate bonds are typically a popular investment choice during times of increasing rates. Roughly 52 percent of investors noted investing in assets that benefit from higher interest rates when anticipating an economic recession. While over 55 percent of investors choose to invest in fewer singular companies and increase asset allocation to conviction stocks.

The weekly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fluctuated significantly in the United States between January 2021 and April 2023. Between January and April 2021, it increased sharply from -0.71 percent to 25.12 percent. From April 2021 onwards, it started to decrease drastically, with slight occasional increases, and reached its lowest value at negative 0.43 percent in November 2022. After November 2022, the weekly GDP growth rate increased notably.

The rate on 15-year fixed rate mortgages in the United States decreased in the period after the Great Recession and reached its lowest level in 2021, followed by a steep increase in the next two years. In the early 1990s, the rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was between six and nine percent. The rate then fell to 2.27 percent in 2021. After the Federal Reserve introduced several bank rate hikes to tackle the rising inflation, the mortgage rate soared to 6.11 percent - the highest rate observed since 2008. The rate for 30-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend.

After a period of gradual decline, the average annual rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States rose to 6.81 percent in 2023, up from the record-low 2.96 percent in 2021. The rate for 15-year fixed mortgages and five-year ARM mortgages followed a similar trend. This was a result of the Federal Reserve increasing the bank rate - a measure introduced to tackle the rising inflation. U.S. home prices going through the roof Mortgage rates have a strong impact on the market – the lower the rate, the lower the loan repayment. The rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreasing after the Great Recession has stimulated the market and boosted home sales. Another problem consumers face is the fact that house prices are rising at an unaffordable level. The median sales price of a new home sold surged in 2021, while the median weekly earnings of a full-time employee maintained a more moderate increase. What are the differences between 15-year and 30-year mortgages? Two of the most popular loan terms available to homebuyers are the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. The 30-year option appeals to more consumers because the repayment is spread out over 30 years, meaning the monthly payments are lower. Consumers choosing the 15-year option will have to pay higher monthly payments but benefit from lower interest rates.

Natural gas prices are the highest in the residential sector. In 2023, U.S. households paid an all time high average of 15.2 U.S. dollars per 1,000 cubic feet. Commercial natural gas costs were second-highest, while prices in the electric power sector were the lowest, at around four U.S. dollars on average. Prices for the industrial and electric power customers tend to be close to the wholesale electricity price. All sectors saw a year-on-year increase in natural gas prices in 2022 due to the decline in U.S. natural gas production in the first quarter of 2022, which resulted in high withdrawals of natural gas from storage and an increase in average natural gas prices. The growing natural gas market In recent years, the average natural gas prices for all sectors have been increasing in the United States. In 2022, the residential sector witnessed an increase in natural gas prices higher than 2008, while natural gas prices for other sectors were still lower despite increases in average natural gas prices for those sectors. Meanwhile, consumption of natural gas has increased more than any other fuel type following the 2008 Recession. Petroleum consumption has been more variable, and use of coal has significantly decreased. The price of coal and crude oil had already been increasing since the early 2000s, and was further exacerbated by the financial crisis. Around the same time, the cost of natural gas dropped significantly, making it a more viable economic alternative compared to other fossil fuels. This decrease was in part the result of drastically increased production of shale gas as a result of hydraulic fracturing and other techniques.

Graph and download economic data for Real gross domestic product per capita (A939RX0Q048SBEA) from Q1 1947 to Q4 2024 about per capita, real, GDP, and USA.

The main stock market index in the United States (US500) decreased 176 points or 2.99% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United States. United States Stock Market Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

In 2023, just over 50 percent of Americans had an annual household income that was less than 75,000 U.S. dollars. The median household income was 80,610 U.S. dollars in 2023. Income and wealth in the United States After the economic recession in 2009, income inequality in the U.S. is more prominent across many metropolitan areas. The Northeast region is regarded as one of the wealthiest in the country. Maryland, New Jersey, and Massachusetts were among the states with the highest median household income in 2020. In terms of income by race and ethnicity, the average income of Asian households was 94,903 U.S. dollars in 2020, while the median income for Black households was around half of that figure. What is the U.S. poverty threshold? The U.S. Census Bureau annually updates its list of poverty levels. Preliminary estimates show that the average poverty threshold for a family of four people was 26,500 U.S. dollars in 2021, which is around 100 U.S. dollars less than the previous year. There were an estimated 37.9 million people in poverty across the United States in 2021, which was around 11.6 percent of the population. Approximately 19.5 percent of those in poverty were Black, while 8.2 percent were white.

In 2023, the value of construction of commercial buildings in the United States amounted to 132 billion U.S. dollars. After a noticeable drop in the U.S. commercial construction market during the 2008 recession, the value of commercial construction that has been put in place has recovered to pre-recession figures, reaching 121 billion U.S. dollars in 2022. Warehouses and private offices were the most commontypes of commercial construction starts in the United States. How does commercial construction differ? Commercial construction is for the purpose of business through new buildings like offices or a new industrial facility. In the commercial market, contractors must also take into account the needs of other businesses that may also be established within the building. The larger size in commercial construction tends to lead to the utilization of steel as well as other equipment such as cranes. Such equipment also requires skilled personnel for safe and efficient operations.

View data of the S&P 500, an index of the stocks of 500 leading companies in the US economy, which provides a gauge of the U.S. equity market.

The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States from 1987 to 2023, with projections up until 2029. The gross domestic product of the United States in 2023 amounted to around 27.72 trillion U.S. dollars. The United States and the economy The United States’ economy is by far the largest in the world; a status which can be determined by several key factors, one being gross domestic product: A look at the GDP of the main industrialized and emerging countries shows a significant difference between US GDP and the GDP of China, the runner-up in the ranking, as well as the followers Japan, Germany and France. Interestingly, it is assumed that China will have surpassed the States in terms of GDP by 2030, but for now, the United States is among the leading countries in almost all other relevant rankings and statistics, trade and employment for example. See the U.S. GDP growth rate here. Just like in other countries, the American economy suffered a severe setback when the economic crisis occurred in 2008. The American economy entered a recession caused by the collapsing real estate market and increasing unemployment. Despite this, the standard of living is considered quite high; life expectancy in the United States has been continually increasing slightly over the past decade, the unemployment rate in the United States has been steadily recovering and decreasing since the crisis, and the Big Mac Index, which represents the global prices for a Big Mac, a popular indicator for the purchasing power of an economy, shows that the United States’ purchasing power in particular is only slightly lower than that of the euro area.

This is the code replication archive for the paper, "The COVID-19 Baby Bump in the United States," published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The underlying natality microdata are restricted, so this archive contains only the code to replicate our analysis.We use natality microdata covering the universe of U.S. births for 2015-2021 and California births from 2015 through February 2023 to examine childbearing responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that 60% of the 2020 decline in U.S. fertility rates was driven by sharp reductions in births to foreign-born mothers although births to this group comprised only 22% of all U.S. births in 2019. This decline started in January 2020. In contrast, the COVID-19 recession resulted in an overall “baby bump” among U.S.-born mothers which marked the first reversal in declining fertility rates since the Great Recession. Births to U.S.-born mothers fell by 31,000 in 2020 relative to a pre-pandemic trend but increased by 71,000 in 2021. The data for California suggest that U.S. births remained elevated through February 2023. The baby bump was most pronounced for first births and women under age 25, suggesting that the pandemic led some women to start families earlier. Above age 25, the baby bump was most pronounced for women ages 30-34 and women with a college education. The 2021-2022 baby bump is especially remarkable given the large declines in fertility rates that would have been projected by standard statistical models.

Household final consumption expenditure (formerly private consumption) is the market value of all goods and services, including durable products (such as cars, washing machines, and home computers), purchased by households. It excludes purchases of dwellings but includes imputed rent for owner-occupied dwellings. It also includes payments and fees to governments to obtain permits and licenses. Here, household consumption expenditure includes the expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households, even when reported separately by the country. Data are in current U.S. dollars.

The U.S. federal funds rate peaked in 2023 at its highest level since the 2007-08 financial crisis, reaching 5.33 percent by December 2023. A significant shift in monetary policy occurred in the second half of 2024, with the Federal Reserve implementing regular rate cuts. By December 2024, the rate had declined to 4.48 percent. What is a central bank rate? The federal funds rate determines the cost of overnight borrowing between banks, allowing them to maintain necessary cash reserves and ensure financial system liquidity. When this rate rises, banks become more inclined to hold rather than lend money, reducing the money supply. While this decreased lending slows economic activity, it helps control inflation by limiting the circulation of money in the economy. Historic perspective The federal funds rate historically follows cyclical patterns, falling during recessions and gradually rising during economic recoveries. Some central banks, notably the European Central Bank, went beyond traditional monetary policy by implementing both aggressive asset purchases and negative interest rates.

In 2023, about 21.6 billion U.S. dollars' worth of commercial mortgage-based securities (CMBS) originations were issued in the United States. These are fixed income investment products which are backed by mortgages on commercial properties. The value of originations peaked in 2007 before the financial crisis at 241 billion U.S. dollars. Commercial mortgage delinquencies increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in the hotel and retail sectors.

Using micro-data on six surveys–the Gallup World Poll 2005–2023, the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 1993–2022, Eurobarometer 1991–2022, the UK Covid Social Survey Panel, 2020–2022, the European Social Survey 2002–2020 and the IPSOS Happiness Survey 2018–2023 –we show individuals’ reports of subjective wellbeing in Europe declined in the Great Recession of 2008/9 and during the Covid pandemic of 2020–2021 on most measures. They also declined in four countries bordering Ukraine after the Russian invasion in 2022. However, the movements are not large and are not apparent everywhere. We also used data from the European Commission’s Business and Consumer Surveys on people’s expectations of life in general, their financial situation and the economic and employment situation in the country. All of these dropped markedly in the Great Recession and during Covid, but bounced back quickly, as did firms’ expectations of the economy and the labor market. Neither the annual data from the United Nation’s Human Development Index (HDI) nor data used in the World Happiness Report from the Gallup World Poll shifted much in response to negative shocks. The HDI has been rising in the last decade reflecting overall improvements in economic and social wellbeing, captured in part by real earnings growth, although it fell slightly after 2020 as life expectancy dipped. This secular improvement is mirrored in life satisfaction which has been rising in the last decade. However, so too have negative affect in Europe and despair in the United States.