Between ************ and *********, global recession fear went through periods of sharp increases three times. First, in the summer of 2019, due to an escalation in U.S.-China relations and a recession signal being flashed by the bond market. The second peak of worldwide recession fear took place in **********, as a result of the alarming jump in the rate of COVID-19 cases. The fear of recession started to increase sharply again in *************, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

Both consumer and government spending have continued to rise despite interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, but recession fears still loom.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Sep 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

During a 2025 survey in the United States, marketers' optimism level about the American economy declined to **** points, down from **** in Fall 2024. Optimism was at its lowest level since Fall 2022 - that year, Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to global economic uncertainty, while high inflation and recession fears also added to a general negative sentiment.

Context

GDPC1 - time series representing real GDP measured quarterly spanning from 1947 to 2018 in billions of dollars, adjusted for inflation and chained to 2012 dollars

DGS2 - time series representing 2Y treasury constant maturity rate measured daily in % spanning from 1976 to 2019

T10Y2Y - time series representing 10Y treasury yields minus 2Y treasury yields measured daily , spanning from 1976 to 2018

USREC - time series represents when the US experienced recession spanning from 1854 to 2018 measured daily. A '1' indicating that the US is in a period of recession and '0' indicating that the US is not in a period of recession

Content

Each CSV file has only two columns, the first column representing the date and the second column representing the value of the time series as indicated above. Missing values are represented by '.'

Acknowledgements

All data was downloaded from the website of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/)

Inspiration

• Recently it was reported that bond yields inverted leading some to fear economic recession in the near future. Is there truth to these fears?

• Is there any relationship between real GDP and bond yields

• Can you use bond yields to predict real GDP?

• Is there any validity to the notion that bond yield inversions are leading indicators of economic recession?

• What other datatypes besides bond yields can we use to improve predictions of real gdp?

Revenue for the Open-End Investment Funds industry has been increasing over the past five years. Open-end investment funds revenue has been growing slightly but remaining relatively steady at a CAGR of 0.0% to $196.1 billion over the past five years, including an expected increase of 4.2% in the current year. In addition, industry profit has climbed and comprises 33.1% of revenue in the current year. Overall, revenue has been increasing alongside overall asset growth, despite operators being forced to lower fees to meet shifting consumer preferences. The industry has encountered volatility due to the high-interest rate environment for most of the period. Higher interest rates reduce liquidity and make fixed income securities more attractive to investors due to less risk and more predictable interest payments. The industry has also encountered increased growth for ETFs and retail investors. The greatest shift in the industry has been an evolving investor preference for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While mutual funds account for the majority of industry assets, growth in ETF assets has significantly outpaced that of mutual funds. Expenses that mutual fund investors incur have fallen from 0.5% of assets in 2018 to 0.4% in 2023, as industry operators have cut fees to attract new capital due to pressure from new funds (latest data available). Despite the high interest rate environment, the Fed slashed rates in 2024 and is anticipated to cut rates further in the latter part of 2025, which will boost asset prices. Open-end investment funds' revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 0.3% to $198.7 billion over the five years to 2030. The fears over inflation and a possible recession are expected to dominate the beginning of the outlook period. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates as inflationary pressures ease. Investment companies' importance will continue to grow, with mutual funds and ETFs representing key channels for individual and institutional investors to access financial markets.

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was a period of severe macroeconomic instability for the United States and the global economy more generally. The crisis was precipitated by the collapse of a number of financial institutions who were deeply involved in the U.S. mortgage market and associated credit markets. Beginning in the Summer of 2007, a number of banks began to report issues with increasing mortgage delinquencies and the problem of not being able to accurately price derivatives contracts which were based on bundles of these U.S. residential mortgages. By the end of 2008, U.S. financial institutions had begun to fail due to their exposure to the housing market, leading to one of the deepest recessions in the history of the United States and to extensive government bailouts of the financial sector.

Subprime and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market

The early 2000s had seen explosive growth in the U.S. mortgage market, as credit became cheaper due to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in the aftermath of the 2001 'Dot Com' Crash, as well as because of the increasing globalization of financial flows which directed funds into U.S. financial markets. Lower mortgage rates gave incentive to financial institutions to begin lending to riskier borrowers, using so-called 'subprime' loans. These were loans to borrowers with poor credit scores, who would not have met the requirements for a conventional mortgage loan. In order to hedge against the risk of these riskier loans, financial institutions began to use complex financial instruments known as derivatives, which bundled mortgage loans together and allowed the risk of default to be sold on to willing investors. This practice was supposed to remove the risk from these loans, by effectively allowing credit institutions to buy insurance against delinquencies. Due to the fraudulent practices of credit ratings agencies, however, the price of these contacts did not reflect the real risk of the loans involved. As the reality of the inability of the borrowers to repay began to kick in during 2007, the financial markets which traded these derivatives came under increasing stress and eventually led to a 'sudden stop' in trading and credit intermediation during 2008.

Market Panic and The Great Recession

As borrowers failed to make repayments, this had a knock-on effect among financial institutions who were highly leveraged with financial instruments based on the mortgage market. Lehman Brothers, one of the world's largest investment banks, failed on September 15th 2008, causing widespread panic in financial markets. Due to the fear of an unprecedented collapse in the financial sector which would have untold consequences for the wider economy, the U.S. government and central bank, The Fed, intervened the following day to bailout the United States' largest insurance company, AIG, and to backstop financial markets. The crisis prompted a deep recession, known colloquially as The Great Recession, drawing parallels between this period and The Great Depression. The collapse of credit intermediation in the economy lead to further issues in the real economy, as business were increasingly unable to pay back loans and were forced to lay off staff, driving unemployment to a high of almost 10 percent in 2010. While there has been criticism of the U.S. government's actions to bailout the financial institutions involved, the actions of the government and the Fed are seen by many as having prevented the crisis from spiraling into a depression of the magnitude of The Great Depression.

Besides the fourth consecutive year of double digit economic growth realized in 2007, data from 2005 to 2007 also showed a successive decline in the rate of economic growth in Cambodia from 13.3 percent in 2005 to 10.2 percent in 2007. Available data for the first nine months of 2008 and current local and global economic trends suggest that Cambodia's economic growth is likely to continue to slow significantly in 2008. Cambodia's two main economic growth-supporting industries, garments and construction, are continuing their downward trend in 2008. External factors, such as fears of a recession in the US and the anticipated end of safeguarding measures, which were imposed by the US and EU against Chinese exports, are adversely affecting the growth of Cambodia's garment industry. Residential construction growth is expected to slow to a negative rate in 2008 and spark bubble risks, given drops in prices expected for residential construction and land, and housing loan credit restrictions. In the meantime, the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Cambodia is continuing to increase steadily, but at a slightly slower pace because of the global economic slowdown as well as current dispute along Thai and Cambodian border. The financial sector is still booming. And, the agricultural sector remains strong thanks to optimal weather conditions and expanding markets for agro-products. Still, investment in agro-industry has remained slim in 2008. In combination with soaring prices for imported raw materials and consumer goods during the year, Cambodia is expected to enjoy only moderate economic growth of 7 percent in 2008, 3.2 percent-point lower than that of 2007. The downward trend is likely to carry over to 2009, when the economic growth rate is expected to slow to about 6 percent. The anticipated launch of a Cambodia Stock Exchange Market and exploitation of the extractive industries such as oil and gas continue to attract attention and draw big investors to Cambodia. Cambodia's economic growth could be speeded up if significant progress is made in critical reforms. These reforms, together with effective anti-corruption policies, would improve the economic and investment environment and potentially spur even higher economic growth.

Phobia Statistics: Living with the fear of something, just like Ron in Harry Potter was afraid of spiders is what phobia is. There are thousands of phobia types, and millions of people around the world are suffering from the disorder. The most common phobia is fear of animals and closed-in spaces. There is no actual prevention of such disorders, but they are treatable. These Phobia Statistics are written in a way to understand the current situation around the world, with well-researched and recent insights from the United States of America. If you are one of the individuals who have any type of phobia, don’t get scared, it’s okay to talk about it! Editor’s choice 40% of the people suffering from Agoraphobia are suffering from severe issues. In the United States of America, the highest number of people have a fear of animals resulting in 40%. As a result of COVID-19, and following cases of Russia and Ukraine, in the month of July 2022, there were 63% of the people globally, had a fear of relative recession. 15 million Americans are suffering from social phobia, resulting in 7.1% of adults and 5.5% of teenagers. 7% of the worldwide population is suffering from panic disorder, 1.6% of these are male and 3.8% are female. According to Phobia Statistics, there are 31.9% of adolescents aged between 13 to 18 years suffer from anxiety disorders. Women are 2 times more likely to suffer from any specific phobias than men. Specific phobias have affected 9.1% of Americans resulting in 19 million of the population. Patients with anxiety disorder are 3 to 5 times more likely to go for a doctor’s visit, while patients with psychiatric disorders are 6 times more likely to be hospitalized for a similar problem. Around the world, 3.6% of the population is suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, out of these 1.8% are men and 5.2% are women

As of June 2025, Delivery Hero had raised close to *********** U.S. dollars in ** rounds of investments. That is well ahead of other players in the food delivery market across the globe, whether they are aggregators or pure players. Two Indian companies stand out on the list, Swiggy and Zomato, raising funds amounting to *** and *** billion dollars, respectively. Market size and user base The global online food delivery sector's market size reached an impressive *** trillion U.S. dollars in 2025, with grocery delivery accounting for *** billion dollars and meal delivery generating *** billion dollars. This substantial market is supported by a vast user base, with an estimated *** billion users for online grocery delivery and *** billion users for meal delivery worldwide in 2025. The sector's growth trajectory remains strong, with projections indicating the market will surpass *** trillion U.S. dollars by 2030. Industry leaders and challenges While Delivery Hero secured the most funding, other major players like Uber Eats, DoorDash, and Just Eat Takeaway have also made significant strides in the market. In 2024, Uber Eats led in global revenue with approximately ***** billion U.S. dollars, followed by Delivery Hero and DoorDash with ***** billion and ***** billion U.S. dollars, respectively. However, the industry faced challenges in 2022 as recession fears led to a sharp decline in venture capital investment, particularly in Europe. This economic uncertainty resulted in widespread layoffs, affecting even industry giants like Gopuff and DoorDash.

Coinbase's plans to lay off ** percent of its workforce in 2022, meant a sharp break from employee growth in the previous quarters. Between December 31, 2021 and March 31, 2022, Coinbase reported to have hired over ***** new full-time employees in order to keep building its crypto platform. Economic downturns - including fears over a new U.S. recession in 2022 - as well as a growing savings interest rate impacted several companies that were growing at a fast pace in the wake of COVID-19 and when many people started exploring cryptocurrency investments during lockdown.

Human resources and benefits administration companies have experienced significant turbulence recently due to shifting economic conditions. COVID-19 initially caused a dramatic slowdown in many sectors, which forced numerous companies to cut back on discretionary spending systems, including HR services, as organizations downscaled operations and pivoted to internal HR solutions. In 2020, this resulted in a slight revenue decline, though federal interventions like the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) partially mitigated potential financial stressors. Afterward, as the economic recovery commenced and unemployment figures dwindled to more consistent levels, corporations slowly began reintegrating HR and benefits services into their business models, supporting a notable revenue rebound in 2022. Beginning in 2022, higher interest rates and increasing fears of an economic recession dampened corporate enthusiasm for external HR expenditure, resulting in falling revenue in 2023 and 2024. Despite these hindrances, the past five years also saw rapid technological advancements and increased adoption of AI and machine learning solutions, enabling service providers to innovate their offerings and gain a competitive edge in a saturated market. Concurrently, market share concentration has declined as more companies have entered the industry in expectation of rising revenue streams in the near future. This has bolstered internal competition, putting downward pressure on profit. Overall, revenue for human resources and benefits administration companies has inched upward at a CAGR of 1.0% over the past five years, reaching $88.9 billion in 2025. This includes a 0.5% decline in revenue in that year. Looking ahead, providers anticipate a more optimistic trajectory. As GDP growth maintains a steady pace, generating more employment opportunities, demand for comprehensive HR services will likely see an upturn. Economic uncertainty remains due to tariffs being recently implemented, which may affect GDP growth and corporations' performance. While substitute competition becomes more prevalent due to the increased attractiveness of internal HR services, cloud-based solutions will become essential. Demand for wellness and diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives will also swell, requiring providers to adapt to these trends for competitive advantage. Overall, revenue for human resources and benefits administration businesses is forecast to mount at a CAGR of 2.3% over the next five years, reaching $99.8 billion in 2030.

Klarna's plans to lay off ** percent of its workforce in 2022 mean the end of a significant increase in employees in previous years. The company reported to have hired more than ***** full-time equivalents or FTE worth of employees between December 31, 2020, and December 31, 2021, leading to nearly ***** FTE by the end of 2021. Estimates are this equaled a total workforce of roughly ***** people, of which *** were confirmed to be laid off. Economic downturns - including fears over a new U.S. recession in 2022 - as well as a growing savings interest rate impacted several companies that were growing at a fast pace following COVID-19 and when many people started exploring fintech solutions and cryptocurrency investments during lockdown.

PayPal's intention in 2022 to lay off some of its workforce means the end of a significant increase in employees in previous years. The company reported to have "approximately" ****** employees as of December 31, 2024 - although it does not mention whether these were full-time or part-time employees. Economic downturns - including fears over a new U.S. recession in 2024 - as well as a growing savings interest rate impacted several companies that were growing at a fast pace in the wake of COVID-19 and when many people started exploring fintech solutions and cryptocurrency investments during the lockdowns. Paypal user numbers reflect this changing environment: Whilst the number of active accounts on PayPal did still increase in 2024, the growth slowed down compared to previous years.

As of January 29, 2025, the FTSE index stood at ******** points - well above its average value of around ***** points in the past few years.On the 12th of March 2020, amid the escalating crisis surrounding the coronavirus and fears of a global recession, the FTSE 100 suffered the second largest one day crash in its history and the biggest since the 1987 market crash. On the 23rd of March, the FTSE index saw its lowest value this year to date at ******** but has since began a tentative recovery. With the continuation of the pandemic, the FTSE 100 index was making a tentative recovery between late March 2020 and early June 2020. Since then the FSTE 100 index had plateaued towards the end of July, before starting a tentative upward trend in November. FTSE 100 The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, otherwise known as the FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 largest companies trading on the London Stock Exchange in terms of market capitalization. At the end of March 2024, the largest company trading on the LSE was Shell. The largest ever initial public offering (IPO) on the LSE was Glencore International plc. European stock exchanges While nearly every country in Europe has a stock exchange, only five are considered major, and have a market capital of over one trillion U.S dollars. European stock exchanges make up two of the top ten major stock markets in the world. Europe’s biggest stock exchange is the Euronext which combines seven markets based in Belgium, France, England, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal.