Between January 2018 and July 2022, global recession fear went through periods of sharp increases three times. First, in the summer of 2019, due to an escalation in U.S.-China relations and a recession signal being flashed by the bond market. The second peak of worldwide recession fear took place in March 2020, as a result of the alarming jump in the rate of COVID-19 cases. The fear of recession started to increase sharply again in February 2022, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The main stock market index in the United States (US500) decreased 176 points or 2.99% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United States. United States Stock Market Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, was created by the U.S. congress in 1938, in order to maintain liquidity and stability in the domestic mortgage market. The company is a government-sponsored enterprise (GSE), meaning that while it was a publicly traded company for most of its history, it was still supported by the federal government. While there is no legally binding guarantee of shares in GSEs or their securities, it is generally acknowledged that the U.S. government is highly unlikely to let these enterprises fail. Due to these implicit guarantees, GSEs are able to access financing at a reduced cost of interest. Fannie Mae's main activity is the purchasing of mortgage loans from their originators (banks, mortgage brokers etc.) and packaging them into mortgage-backed securities (MBS) in order to ease the access of U.S. homebuyers to housing credit. The early 2000s U.S. mortgage finance boom During the early 2000s, Fannie Mae was swept up in the U.S. housing boom which eventually led to the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The association's stated goal of increasing access of lower income families to housing finance coalesced with the interests of private mortgage lenders and Wall Street investment banks, who had become heavily reliant on the housing market to drive profits. Private lenders had begun to offer riskier mortgage loans in the early 2000s due to low interest rates in the wake of the "Dot Com" crash and their need to maintain profits through increasing the volume of loans on their books. The securitized products created by these private lenders did not maintain the standards which had traditionally been upheld by GSEs. Due to their market share being eaten into by private firms, however, the GSEs involved in the mortgage markets began to also lower their standards, resulting in a 'race to the bottom'. The fall of Fannie Mae The lowering of lending standards was a key factor in creating the housing bubble, as mortgages were now being offered to borrowers with little or no ability to repay the loans. Combined with fraudulent practices from credit ratings agencies, who rated the junk securities created from these mortgage loans as being of the highest standard, this led directly to the financial panic that erupted on Wall Street beginning in 2007. As the U.S. economy slowed down in 2006, mortgage delinquency rates began to spike. Fannie Mae's losses in the mortgage security market in 2006 and 2007, along with the losses of the related GSE 'Freddie Mac', had caused its share value to plummet, stoking fears that it may collapse. On September 7th 2008, Fannie Mae was taken into government conservatorship along with Freddie Mac, with their stocks being delisted from stock exchanges in 2010. This act was seen as an unprecedented direct intervention into the economy by the U.S. government, and a symbol of how far the U.S. housing market had fallen.

The main stock market index in Brazil (IBOVESPA) increased 12104 or 10.06% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from Brazil. Brazil Stock Market (BOVESPA) - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Revenue for the Open-End Investment Funds industry has been increasing over the five years to 2024. Open-end investment funds revenue has been growing at a CAGR of 0.6% to $176.7 billion over the past five years, including an expected decline of 0.4% in 2024 alone. In the same year, profit is set to fall to 29.4%. Industry revenue has been increasing alongside overall asset growth, despite operators being forced to lower fees to meet shifting consumer preferences. The greatest shift in the industry has been an evolving investor preference for exchange-traded funds (ETFs). While mutual funds account for the majority of industry assets, growth in ETF assets has significantly outpaced that of mutual funds. Expenses that mutual fund investors incur have fallen from 0.5% of assets in 2018 to 0.4% in 2023, as industry operators have cut fees to attract new capital due to pressure from new funds (latest data available). Also, in 2020, the financial stimulus and lowered interest rates in response to the pandemic helped increase asset prices in the latter half of the current period. Open-end investment funds' revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3% to $207.5 billion over the five years to 2029. The fears over inflation and a possible recession are expected to dominate the beginning of the outlook period. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates as inflationary pressures ease. Investment companies' importance will continue to grow, with mutual funds and ETFs representing key channels for individual and institutional investors to access financial markets.

In 2023, Uber Eats generated approximately 12.2 billion U.S. dollars in global revenue, surpassing food delivery competitors Delivery Hero and DoorDash, whose worldwide revenue amounted to about 11 billion and 8.6 billion U.S. dollars, respectively. Online food delivery boom The tremendous popularity that online food delivery garnered among consumers during the pandemic made many eager to invest in the booming sector. In 2021, the value of online food delivery funding worldwide reached a record-breaking 19.1 billion U.S. dollars. That is nearly double the amount of funding the sector received in the previous year. As of January 2023, Delivery Hero had received the largest amount of funding among the leading food delivery companies at nearly ten billion dollars. In comparison, Just Eat Takeaway and DoorDash received 2.8 billion and 2.5 billion U.S. dollars in funding, respectively. Recession fears As global markets battled an impending recession in 2022, investment and growth in the online food delivery sector came to a grinding halt. In Europe, venture capital investment in food delivery experienced a dramatic decline: nearing seven billion U.S. dollars at the height of the pandemic in 2021, funding dropped to less than 2.5 billion in the following year. The food delivery sector’s recession woes also included several waves of mass layoffs that affected even the biggest players in the industry. As of January 2023, more than 2,300 Gopuff employees lost their jobs. DoorDash announced 1,250 layoffs in November 2022.

PayPal's intention in 2022 to lay off some of its workforce means the end of a significant increase in employees in previous years. The company reported to have "approximately" 30,900 employees as of December 31, 2021 - although it does not mention whether these were full-time or part-time employees. Economic downturns - including fears over a new U.S. recession in 2022 - as well as a growing savings interest rate impacted several companies that were growing at a fast pace in the wake of COVID-19 and when many people started exploring fintech solutions and cryptocurrency investments during the lockdowns. Paypal user numbers reflect this changing environment: Whilst the number of active accounts on PayPal did still increase in 2022, the growth slowed down compared to previous years.

Graph and download economic data for CBOE Volatility Index: VIX (VIXCLS) from 1990-01-02 to 2025-03-24 about VIX, volatility, stock market, and USA.

Copper increased 1.13 USd/LB or 28.38% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Copper - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

Commercial real estate lenders in the United States identified the rising interest rates as the biggest threat in the sector, according to a December 2022 survey. Approximately 27 percent of the survey respondents chose the higher cost of borrowing as one of the top three challenges, followed by the fear of recession and uncertainty surrounding property valuations pointed out by 19 percent, respectively.

In addition to providing an ongoing evaluation of the Bush presidency, this survey polled respondents on a variety of social and political topics including political parties, economics, racism, the Persian Gulf War, patriotism, Mikhail Gorbachev and the Soviet Union, China, and health care policy. Respondents were asked whether they approved of George Bush's handling of the presidency, foreign policy, and the economy. Detailed queries on political topics included items on the most important problem facing the country and the party that could best handle it, and the party best able to control unemployment, reduce the federal deficit, keep the United States out of war, deal with foreign economic competition, and insure the prosperity of the country. Respondents were also asked which party was more concerned with the needs of people like themselves, which was more likely to make sure that United States military defenses are strong and that children get a better education in the public schools, which was more likely to improve the health care system, which party favored the rich, the middle class, and the poor, which party cared more about the needs and problems of women, men, Blacks, and Whites, and which was more likely to waste tax money. Economic questions focused on whether trade restrictions were necessary to protect domestic industries, what the condition of the national economy was, whether the United States was in an economic recession, and whether the economy was getting better. Questions concerning racism asked whether preference should be given to hiring Blacks where there had been discrimination in the past, whether preferential hiring or promotion of Blacks hurts Whites, and whether the respondent had ever been discriminated against. Questions focusing on the Persian Gulf War included whether the war to defeat Iraq was worth the cost, whether the results of the war would make the chance for peace in the Middle East more likely, whether the United States should have stopped fighting when Iraqi troops left Kuwait or continued fighting Iraq until Saddam Hussein was removed from power, if the respondent felt proud about what the United States had done in the Persian Gulf, and whether the United States made a mistake by getting involved in the war against Iraq. Other questions examined how patriotic the respondent felt, whether people were more patriotic, and whether politicians talk about patriotism as a means of winning votes. Respondents were also asked whether their opinion of Mikhail Gorbachev was favorable, whether they favored helping the Soviet Union reform its economy by providing economic aid, whether it was more important to criticize China's suppression of human rights or to maintain good relations with China, and whether China should receive the same trading privileges as other friendly nations. Questions regarding specific health policies included whether abortion should be available to all or be available with stricter limits, whether the government should require employers to make health insurance available, and whether the respondent favored or opposed national health insurance. Respondents were asked how much they thought they knew about AIDS, whether the United States should keep people who have tested positive for AIDS from entering the country, whether there had been a lot of discrimination against people with AIDS, whether they had sympathy for those who have the disease, what age children should be told about AIDS and the specific ways to prevent transmitting it, if the government should require health care workers to be tested for AIDS, whether the respondent had changed his/her sexual habits due to fear of getting AIDS, and whether the respondent knew someone who had the disease or who had died from it. Background information includes the respondent's voting behavior in the 1988 presidential election, party affiliation, political orientation, voter registration status, age, race, religion, education, marital status, parental status, employment, and family income.

As of October 16, 2024, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.04 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.96 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in 2022 and 2023. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

In a March 2020 survey, the development related to COVID-19 which had most affect home buying or selling plans in the United States was the drop in mortgage rates, which was cited by 34.1 percent of the respondents. Fear of recession and stock market volatility followed behind at 25 and 24 percent, respectively. For further information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, please visit our dedicated Facts and Figures page.

As of January 29, 2025, the FTSE index stood at 8,557.81 points - well above its average value of around 7,500 points in the past few years.On the 12th of March 2020, amid the escalating crisis surrounding the coronavirus and fears of a global recession, the FTSE 100 suffered the second largest one day crash in its history and the biggest since the 1987 market crash. On the 23rd of March, the FTSE index saw its lowest value this year to date at 4,993.89 but has since began a tentative recovery. With the continuation of the pandemic, the FTSE 100 index was making a tentative recovery between late March 2020 and early June 2020. Since then the FSTE 100 index had plateaued towards the end of July, before starting a tentative upward trend in November. FTSE 100 The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index, otherwise known as the FTSE 100 Index is a share index of the 100 largest companies trading on the London Stock Exchange in terms of market capitalization. At the end of March 2024, the largest company trading on the LSE was Shell. The largest ever initial public offering (IPO) on the LSE was Glencore International plc. European stock exchanges While nearly every country in Europe has a stock exchange, only five are considered major, and have a market capital of over one trillion U.S dollars. European stock exchanges make up two of the top ten major stock markets in the world. Europe’s biggest stock exchange is the Euronext which combines seven markets based in Belgium, France, England, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Portugal.

Klarna's plans to lay off 10 percent of its workforce in 2022 mean the end of a significant increase in employees in previous years. The company reported to have hired more than 1,500 full-time equivalents or FTE worth of employees between December 31, 2020 and December 31, 2021, leading to nearly 4,800 FTE by the end of 2021. Estimates are this equaled a total workforce of roughly 7,000 people, of which 700 were confirmed to be laid off. Economic downturns - including fears over a new U.S. recession in 2022 - as well as a growing savings interest rate impacted several companies that were growing at a fast pace in the wake of COVID-19 and when many people started exploring fintech solutions and cryptocurrency investments during lockdown.

Coinbase's plans to lay off 18 percent of its workforce in 2022, meant a sharp break from employee growth in the previous quarters. Between December 31, 2021 and March 31, 2022, Coinbase reported to have hired over 1,200 new full-time employees in order to keep building its crypto platform. Economic downturns - including fears over a new U.S. recession in 2022 - as well as a growing savings interest rate impacted several companies that were growing at a fast pace in the wake of COVID-19 and when many people started exploring cryptocurrency investments during lockdown.

Worldwide car sales grew to around 75.3 million automobiles in 2023, up from around 67.3 million units in 2022. Throughout 2020 and 2021, the sector experienced a downward trend on the back of a slowing global economy, while COVID-19 and the Russian war on Ukraine contributed to shortages in the automotive semiconductor industry and further supply chain disruptions in 2022. Despite these challenges, 2023 sales surpassed pre-pandemic levels and are forecast to keep rising through 2024 Covid-19 hits car demand It had been estimated pre-pandemic that international car sales were on track to reach 80 million. While 2023 sales are still far away from that goal, this was the first year were car sales exceeded pre-pandemic values. The automotive market faced various challenges in 2023, including supply shortages, automotive layoffs, and strikes in North America. However, despite these hurdles, the North American market was among the fastest-growing regions that year, along with Eastern Europe and Asia, as auto sales in these regions increased year-on-year. Chinese market recovers After years of double-digit growth, China's economy began to lose steam in 2022, and recovery has been slow through 2023. China was the largest automobile market based on sales with around 25.8 million units in 2023. However, monthly car sales in China were in free-fall in April 2022 partly due to shortages, fears over a looming recession, and the country grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic. By June of that same year, monthly sales in China were closer to those recorded in 2021.