Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q3 2024 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Period preceding the Trough (USRECDP) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-03-24 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index was 1.20000 Percentage Points in July of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index reached a record high of 100.00000 in April of 2020 and a record low of 0.00000 in July of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough (USARECDM) from 1947-02-01 to 2022-09-30 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in February of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1855. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

In October 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.43, a slight decrease from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and March 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in August of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in March of 1960 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1961. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for OECD based Recession Indicators for the OECD Total Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on February of 2025.

NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in February of 2022, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in December of 1854 and a record low of 0.00000 in January of 1855. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

This graph shows, how the respondents experienced the recession in the United States. 2 percent of the respondents said that they lost their home due to foreclosue.

This graph shows, the impact of the recession in the U.S. on the respondents' household financial situation. 29 percent of the respondents said, that there would be no difference.

This graph shows the impact of the recession on the respondents household financial situation now, compared with before the recession. 33 percent of the respondents who are aged between 18 and 29 stated, that their household financial situation is in better shape now than before the recession.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

United States - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough was 0.00000 +1 or 0 in September of 2021, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough reached a record high of 1.00000 in May of 1962 and a record low of 0.00000 in March of 1960. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - OECD based Recession Indicators for OECD Europe from the Peak through the Trough - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on March of 2025.

This graph shows, how long it will take the respondents to recover from the recessions' impacts. 10 percent of the respondents said that it will take them more than 10 years to overcome the impacts of the recession or they will even never be able to reach the same level they had before the recession.

This graph shows how the recession in the U.S. influenced the respondents' retirement plans. 34 percent of the respondents said that they won't have to delay their retirement.

The Covid-19 pandemic saw growth fall by 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent the year before. The last time the real GDP growth rates fell by a similar level was during the Great Recession in 2009, and the only other time since the Second World War where real GDP fell by more than one percent was in the early 1980s recession. The given records began following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, and GDP growth fluctuated greatly between the Great Depression and the 1950s, before growth became more consistent.

From the Summer of 2007 until the end of 2009 (at least), the world was gripped by a series of economic crises commonly known as the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008) and the Great Recession (2008-2009). The financial crisis was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market, which caused panic on Wall Street, the center of global finance in New York. Due to the outsized nature of the U.S. economy compared to other countries and particularly the centrality of U.S. finance for the world economy, the crisis spread quickly to other countries, affecting most regions across the globe. By 2009, global GDP growth was in negative territory, with international credit markets frozen, international trade contracting, and tens of millions of workers being made unemployed.

Global similarities, global differences

Since the 1980s, the world economy had entered a period of integration and globalization. This process particularly accelerated after the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War (1947-1991). This was the period of the 'Washington Consensus', whereby the U.S. and international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF promoted policies of economic liberalization across the globe. This increasing interdependence and openness to the global economy meant that when the crisis hit in 2007, many countries experienced the same issues. This is particularly evident in the synchronization of the recessions in the most advanced economies of the G7. Nevertheless, the aggregate global GDP number masks the important regional differences which occurred during the recession. While the more advanced economies of North America, Western Europe, and Japan were all hit hard, along with countries who are reliant on them for trade or finance, large emerging economies such as India and China bucked this trend. In particular, China's huge fiscal stimulus in 2008-2009 likely did much to prevent the global economy from sliding further into a depression. In 2009, while the United States' GDP sank to -2.6 percent, China's GDP, as reported by national authorities, was almost 10 percent.