By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

United States FRB Recession Risk data was reported at 0.178 % in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.192 % for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk data is updated monthly, averaging 0.193 % from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 1.000 % in Oct 2008 and a record low of 0.022 % in Jul 2003. United States FRB Recession Risk data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Jun 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data was reported at -0.105 Basis Point in Apr 2025. This records a decrease from the previous number of -0.060 Basis Point for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data is updated monthly, averaging -0.056 Basis Point from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.539 Basis Point in Oct 2008 and a record low of -1.026 Basis Point in Jul 2003. United States FRB Recession Risk: Excess Bond Premium data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data was reported at 1.268 Basis Point in Apr 2025. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.114 Basis Point for Mar 2025. United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data is updated monthly, averaging 1.572 Basis Point from Jan 1973 (Median) to Apr 2025, with 628 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.924 Basis Point in Nov 2008 and a record low of 0.563 Basis Point in Oct 1978. United States FRB Recession Risk: Corporate Bond Credit Spread data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Board. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

The excess bond premium (EBP) is a measure of investor sentiment or risk appetite in the corporate bond market. A credit spread index can be decomposed into two components: a component that captures the systematic movements in default risk of individual firms and a residual component: the excess bond premium that represents variation in the average price of bearing exposure to US corporate credit risk, above and beyond the compensation for expected defaults. The EBP component of corporate bond credit spreads that is not directly attributable to expected default risk provides an effective measure of investor sentiment or risk appetite in the corporate bond market.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

In a 2019 analysis, Riverside, California was the most at risk of a housing downturn in a recession out of the ** largest metro areas in the United States. The Californian metro area received an overall score of **** percent, which was compiled after factors such as home price volatility and average home loan-to-value ratio were examined.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Jul 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

FRB Recession Risk在2025-04达0.178%，相较于2025-03的0.192%有所下降。FRB Recession Risk数据按月度更新，1973-01至2025-04期间平均值为0.193%，共628份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于2008-10，达1.000%，而历史最低值则出现于2003-07，为0.022%。CEIC提供的FRB Recession Risk数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Board，数据归类于Global Database的美国 – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk。

Context

This dataset was built using the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's State Coincident Indices and the Bry-Boschan Method for business cycle dating. In the tradition of Owyang, Piger, et al. business cycles are calculated on the state level which provides interesting analysis opportunities for looking at recession timing for different regions or sectors present in different states. The MSA level data utilizes the Economic Coincident Indices available on the St. Louis FRED website and uses a variant of the non-parametric algorithm described in Metro Business Cycles (Arias et al. 2016) to date MSA level recessions.

Content

This data is from 1982 through 2018 and includes whether the economy is in a recession or not, with forward looking and backward looking data available for observations as well. Additionally, various FRED St. Louis series were joined, like the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the Global Price of Brent Crude. The 2012 value added as a percent for different NAICS groups is included as well for sectoral analysis, although better data over time for this would prove beneficial. The industries file attempts to correct this, but has fewer years available.

Acknowledgements

Special thanks to the researchers at the Federal Reserve Banks of Philadelphia and St. Louis for collecting and making available much of the data that went into this dataset.

Inspiration

I was inspired by researchers that have attempted to take business cycle dating to the state and MSA level. Local business cycle dating methodologies allow for a more robust understanding of what goes into a recession and how sectoral composition can affect a state or MSA's "resilience" to recessions. This could have applications for weighting business cycle risk for companies based on geographic dispersion of customers, as well as local policymakers if local forecasting could be done successfully.

We conduct an experiment with a representative sample from the US to study households’ demand for macroeconomic information. Respondents who learn of a higher personal exposure to unemployment risk during recessions increase their demand for an expert forecast about the likelihood of a recession. This finding is consistent with macroeconomic models of endogenous information acquisition, according to which the demand for information depends on its expected benefits. Moreover, respondents’ updating about their personal unemployment risk suggests that households are imperfectly informed about their exposure to aggregate fluctuations, which may distort their beliefs about the benefits of acquiring macroeconomic information.

The Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 was a period of severe macroeconomic instability for the United States and the global economy more generally. The crisis was precipitated by the collapse of a number of financial institutions who were deeply involved in the U.S. mortgage market and associated credit markets. Beginning in the Summer of 2007, a number of banks began to report issues with increasing mortgage delinquencies and the problem of not being able to accurately price derivatives contracts which were based on bundles of these U.S. residential mortgages. By the end of 2008, U.S. financial institutions had begun to fail due to their exposure to the housing market, leading to one of the deepest recessions in the history of the United States and to extensive government bailouts of the financial sector.

Subprime and the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market

The early 2000s had seen explosive growth in the U.S. mortgage market, as credit became cheaper due to the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in the aftermath of the 2001 'Dot Com' Crash, as well as because of the increasing globalization of financial flows which directed funds into U.S. financial markets. Lower mortgage rates gave incentive to financial institutions to begin lending to riskier borrowers, using so-called 'subprime' loans. These were loans to borrowers with poor credit scores, who would not have met the requirements for a conventional mortgage loan. In order to hedge against the risk of these riskier loans, financial institutions began to use complex financial instruments known as derivatives, which bundled mortgage loans together and allowed the risk of default to be sold on to willing investors. This practice was supposed to remove the risk from these loans, by effectively allowing credit institutions to buy insurance against delinquencies. Due to the fraudulent practices of credit ratings agencies, however, the price of these contacts did not reflect the real risk of the loans involved. As the reality of the inability of the borrowers to repay began to kick in during 2007, the financial markets which traded these derivatives came under increasing stress and eventually led to a 'sudden stop' in trading and credit intermediation during 2008.

Market Panic and The Great Recession

As borrowers failed to make repayments, this had a knock-on effect among financial institutions who were highly leveraged with financial instruments based on the mortgage market. Lehman Brothers, one of the world's largest investment banks, failed on September 15th 2008, causing widespread panic in financial markets. Due to the fear of an unprecedented collapse in the financial sector which would have untold consequences for the wider economy, the U.S. government and central bank, The Fed, intervened the following day to bailout the United States' largest insurance company, AIG, and to backstop financial markets. The crisis prompted a deep recession, known colloquially as The Great Recession, drawing parallels between this period and The Great Depression. The collapse of credit intermediation in the economy lead to further issues in the real economy, as business were increasingly unable to pay back loans and were forced to lay off staff, driving unemployment to a high of almost 10 percent in 2010. While there has been criticism of the U.S. government's actions to bailout the financial institutions involved, the actions of the government and the Fed are seen by many as having prevented the crisis from spiraling into a depression of the magnitude of The Great Depression.

Abstract The literature, although point variables including lack of public safety, unemployment, corruption and the level of education as factors that influence the increase of entrepreneurial intention, does not investigate the effect of such variables through the existence of the endogenous relationship between economic growth and entrepreneurial intention. The objective of this study is to verify whether the economic recession influences entrepreneurial intention. The sample consisted of 60 234 individuals from 37 countries in 2009. Our results show that in scenarios with major economic downturns, people say they are more conducive to engage in entrepreneurial activities. Such result suggests that individuals seek in the economic crisis for business opportunities that may be motivated, possibly, by entrepreneurship by necessity. These evidences indicate that research on entrepreneurial intention should consider the economic situation of the analyzed environment.

Abstract (en): Some analysts and economists recently warned that the United States economy faces a much higher risk of recession should the price of oil rise to $100 per barrel or more. In February 2008, spot crude oil prices closed above $100 per barrel for the first time ever, and since then they have climbed even higher. Meanwhile, according to some surveys of economists, it is highly probable that a recession began in the United States in late 2007 or early 2008. Although the findings in this paper are consistent with the view that the United States economy has become much less sensitive to large changes in oil prices, a simple forecasting exercise using Hamilton's model augmented with the first principal component of 85 macroeconomic variables reveals that a permanent increase in the price of crude oil to $150 per barrel by the end of 2008 could have a significant negative effect on the growth rate of real gross domestic product in the short run. Moreover, the model also predicts that such an increase in oil prices would produce much higher overall and core inflation rates in 2009 than most policymakers expect. A zipped package contains a programming syntax file (text format) and a Microsoft Excel file, which contains the data, tables, and corresponding figures used in the article.These data are part of ICPSR's Publication-Related Archive and are distributed exactly as they arrived from the data depositor. ICPSR has not checked or processed this material. Users should consult the investigators if further information is desired.

FRB Recession Risk：Excess Bond Premium在04-01-2025达-0.105基点，相较于03-01-2025的-0.060基点有所下降。FRB Recession Risk：Excess Bond Premium数据按月更新，01-01-1973至04-01-2025期间平均值为-0.056基点，共628份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于10-01-2008，达3.539基点，而历史最低值则出现于07-01-2003，为-1.026基点。CEIC提供的FRB Recession Risk：Excess Bond Premium数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Board，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk。

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

FRB Recession Risk：Corporate Bond Credit Spread在04-01-2025达1.268基点，相较于03-01-2025的1.114基点有所增长。FRB Recession Risk：Corporate Bond Credit Spread数据按月更新，01-01-1973至04-01-2025期间平均值为1.572基点，共628份观测结果。该数据的历史最高值出现于11-01-2008，达7.924基点，而历史最低值则出现于10-01-1978，为0.563基点。CEIC提供的FRB Recession Risk：Corporate Bond Credit Spread数据处于定期更新的状态，数据来源于Federal Reserve Board，数据归类于全球数据库的美国 – Table US.S090: FRB Recession Risk。

Predictions: The Dow Jones U.S. Select Regional Banks index is expected to show continued growth in the coming months. The index has been on an upward trend since the beginning of the year, and this trend is expected to continue. The index is currently trading near its all-time high, and there is no indication that it will reverse course anytime soon. The strong economy and low interest rates are expected to continue to support the growth of regional banks. Risks: The main risk to the index is a recession. If the economy were to enter a recession, regional banks would be negatively impacted. The index could also be negatively impacted by rising interest rates. However, these risks are considered to be low at this time.