U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026
- statista.com
Updated Jun 24, 2025
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EmailClick to copy linkLink copiedCiteStatista (2025). U.S. monthly projected recession probability 2021-2026 [Dataset]. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1239080/us-monthly-projected-recession-probability/Dataset updatedJun 24, 2025Time period coveredApr 2021 - Apr 2026Area coveredUnited StatesDescriptionBy April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.
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Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator
- fred.stlouisfed.org
jsonUpdated Sep 5, 2025ShareFacebookTwitterEmailClick to copy linkLink copiedCite(2025). Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIMEjsonAvailable download formatsDataset updatedSep 5, 2025Licensehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain
DescriptionGraph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Aug 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.
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GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index
- fred.stlouisfed.org
jsonUpdated Jul 30, 2025ShareFacebookTwitterEmailClick to copy linkLink copiedCite(2025). GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index [Dataset]. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHGDPBRINDXjsonAvailable download formatsDataset updatedJul 30, 2025Licensehttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domainhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/#copyright-public-domain
DescriptionGraph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.
Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth
- clevelandfed.org
csvUpdated Mar 1, 2002ShareFacebookTwitterEmailClick to copy linkLink copiedCiteFederal Reserve Bank of Cleveland (2002). Yield Curve and Predicted GDP Growth [Dataset]. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/yield-curve-and-predicted-gdp-growthcsvAvailable download formatsDataset updatedMar 1, 2002LicenseAttribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automaticallyDescriptionWe use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.
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FacebookTwitterEmailBy April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.