Graph and download economic data for Dates of U.S. recessions as inferred by GDP-based recession indicator (JHDUSRGDPBR) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, GDP, and USA.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USRECD) from 1854-12-01 to 2025-10-06 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

By April 2026, it is projected that there is a probability of ***** percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

View monthly updates and historical trends for US Recession Probability. from United States. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Track economic data…

Graph and download economic data for Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMREALTIME) from Dec 1959 to Aug 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

The Covid-19 pandemic saw growth fall by 2.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent the year before. The last time the real GDP growth rates fell by a similar level was during the Great Recession in 2009, and the only other time since the Second World War where real GDP fell by more than one percent was in the early 1980s recession. The given records began following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, and GDP growth fluctuated greatly between the Great Depression and the 1950s, before growth became more consistent.

On October 29, 1929, the U.S. experienced the most devastating stock market crash in it's history. The Wall Street Crash of 1929 set in motion the Great Depression, which lasted for twelve years and affected virtually all industrialized countries. In the United States, GDP fell to it's lowest recorded level of just 57 billion U.S dollars in 1933, before rising again shortly before the Second World War. After the war, GDP fluctuated, but it increased gradually until the Great Recession in 2008. Real GDP Real GDP allows us to compare GDP over time, by adjusting all figures for inflation. In this case, all numbers have been adjusted to the value of the US dollar in FY2012. While GDP rose every year between 1946 and 2008, when this is adjusted for inflation it can see that the real GDP dropped at least once in every decade except the 1960s and 2010s. The Great Recession Apart from the Great Depression, and immediately after WWII, there have been two times where both GDP and real GDP dropped together. The first was during the Great Recession, which lasted from December 2007 until June 2009 in the US, although its impact was felt for years after this. After the collapse of the financial sector in the US, the government famously bailed out some of the country's largest banking and lending institutions. Since recovery began in late 2009, US GDP has grown year-on-year, and reached 21.4 trillion dollars in 2019. The coronavirus pandemic and the associated lockdowns then saw GDP fall again, for the first time in a decade. As economic recovery from the pandemic has been compounded by supply chain issues, inflation, and rising global geopolitical instability, it remains to be seen what the future holds for the U.S. economy.

Graph and download economic data for GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index (JHGDPBRINDX) from Q4 1967 to Q1 2025 about recession indicators, percent, GDP, and indexes.

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has undergone significant changes since 2007, reflecting its response to major economic crises. From a modest *** trillion U.S. dollars at the end of 2007, it ballooned to approximately *** trillion U.S. dollars by October 2025. This dramatic expansion, particularly during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic - both of which resulted in negative annual GDP growth in the U.S. - showcases the Fed's crucial role in stabilizing the economy through expansionary monetary policies. Impact on inflation and interest rates The Fed's expansionary measures, while aimed at stimulating economic growth, have had notable effects on inflation and interest rates. Following the quantitative easing in 2020, inflation in the United States reached ***** percent in 2022, the highest since 1991. However, by August 2025, inflation had declined to *** percent. Concurrently, the Federal Reserve implemented a series of interest rate hikes, with the rate peaking at **** percent in August 2023, before the first rate cut since September 2021 occurred in September 2024. Financial implications for the Federal Reserve The expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and subsequent interest rate hikes have had significant financial implications. In 2023, the Fed reported a negative net income of ***** billion U.S. dollars, a stark contrast to the ***** billion U.S. dollars profit in 2022. This unprecedented shift was primarily due to rapidly rising interest rates, which caused the Fed's interest expenses to soar to over *** billion U.S. dollars in 2023. Despite this, the Fed's net interest income on securities acquired through open market operations reached a record high of ****** billion U.S. dollars in the same year.

The Great Recession was a period of economic contraction which came in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. The recession was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent bankruptcies among Wall Street financial institutions, the most significant of which being the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. These economic convulsions caused consumer confidence, measured by the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), to drop sharply in 2007 and the beginning of 2008. How does the Consumer Confidence Index work? The CCI measures household's expectation of their future economic situation and, consequently, their likely future spending and savings decisions. A score of 100 in the index would indicate a neutral economic outlook, with consumers neither being optimistic nor pessimistic about the near future. Scores below 100 are then more pessimistic, while scores above 100 indicate optimism about the economy. Consumer confidence can have a self-fulfilling effect on the economy, as when consumers are pessimistic about the economy, they tend to save and postpone spending, contracting aggregate demand and causing the economy to slow down. Conversely, when consumers are optimistic and willing to spend, this can have a reinforcing effect as wages and employment may rise when consumers spend more. CCI and the Great Recession As the reality of the trouble which the U.S. financial sector was in set in over 2007, consumer confidence dropped sharply from being slightly positive, to being deeply pessimistic by the Summer of 2008. While confidence began to slowly rebound up until September 2008, with the panic caused by Lehman's bankruptcy and the freezing of new credit creation, the CCI plummeted once more, reaching its lowest point during the recession in February 2008. The U.S. government stepped in to prevent the bankruptcy of AIG in 2008, promising to do the same for any future possible failures in the financial system. This 'backstopping' policy, whereby the government assured that the economy would not be allowed to fall further into crisis, along with the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies used to restart the economy, contributed to a rebound in consumer confidence in 2009 and 2010. In spite of this, consumers still remained pessimistic about the economy.

Graph and download economic data for NBER based Recession Indicators for the United States from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (USRECQ) from Q4 1854 to Q3 2025 about peak, trough, recession indicators, and USA.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 3.80 percent in the second quarter of 2025 over the previous quarter. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (SAHMCURRENT) from Mar 1949 to Aug 2025 about recession indicators, academic data, and USA.

In 2023, it was estimated that over 161 million Americans were in some form of employment, while 3.64 percent of the total workforce was unemployed. This was the lowest unemployment rate since the 1950s, although these figures are expected to rise in 2023 and beyond. 1980s-2010s Since the 1980s, the total United States labor force has generally risen as the population has grown, however, the annual average unemployment rate has fluctuated significantly, usually increasing in times of crisis, before falling more slowly during periods of recovery and economic stability. For example, unemployment peaked at 9.7 percent during the early 1980s recession, which was largely caused by the ripple effects of the Iranian Revolution on global oil prices and inflation. Other notable spikes came during the early 1990s; again, largely due to inflation caused by another oil shock, and during the early 2000s recession. The Great Recession then saw the U.S. unemployment rate soar to 9.6 percent, following the collapse of the U.S. housing market and its impact on the banking sector, and it was not until 2016 that unemployment returned to pre-recession levels. 2020s 2019 had marked a decade-long low in unemployment, before the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic saw the sharpest year-on-year increase in unemployment since the Great Depression, and the total number of workers fell by almost 10 million people. Despite the continuation of the pandemic in the years that followed, alongside the associated supply-chain issues and onset of the inflation crisis, unemployment reached just 3.67 percent in 2022 - current projections are for this figure to rise in 2023 and the years that follow, although these forecasts are subject to change if recent years are anything to go by.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

Graph and download economic data for OECD based Recession Indicators for Euro Area from the Period following the Peak through the Trough (DISCONTINUED) (EUROREC) from Mar 1960 to Aug 2022 about peak, trough, recession indicators, Euro Area, and Europe.

The 2020 recession did not follow the trend of previous recessions in the United States because only six months elapsed between the yield curve inversion and the 2020 recession. Over the last five decades, 12 months, on average, has elapsed between the initial yield curve inversion and the beginning of a recession in the United States. For instance, the yield curve inverted initially in January 2006, which was 22 months before the start of the 2008 recession. A yield curve inversion refers to the event where short-term Treasury bonds, such as one or three month bonds, have higher yields than longer term bonds, such as three or five year bonds. This is unusual, because long-term investments typically have higher yields than short-term ones in order to reward investors for taking on the extra risk of longer term investments. Monthly updates on the Treasury yield curve can be seen here.

Between 1946 and 1961, the United States distributed over 44.5 billion U.S. dollars to Western European countries in the form of loans or grants. 27.3 billion was given in the form of economic assistance, while 17.2 billion was given as military assistance. The largest sums were given to the United Kingdom and France, who received 8.8 and 8.4 billion dollars respectively. Italy and West Germany, who had been enemies of the U.S. during the Second World War, received the next-largest sums, with both totals over five billion dollars. Disproportional distributions Such grants and loans, particularly those of the Marshall Plan, were distributed on a (fairly rough) per capita basis, although major industrial powers were given disproportionately higher sums, as it was believed that their successful recovery would drive prosperity across the region. Turkey and Greece were also given relatively high sums due to their political and strategic significance during the Cold War, with Turkey receiving significantly more in military assistance than economic. In contrast, Spain received a disproportionately low sum - despite being neutral during the war, Franco's fascist government was unpopular in the U.S. and was excluded from aid in the years immediately following the war; the Spanish government's strong anti-communist saw the U.S. revert this policy with the Pact of Madrid in 1953. The Golden Age The "Golden Age" was a period of relatively uninterrupted economic growth between the end of the Second World War in 1945 and the Recession of 1973-1975. During this time, Western Europe experienced its most economically successful period in recorded history. This success was made possible by various factors, including an increase in European integration, the expansion of welfare and healthcare systems, and widespread industrialization. The United States played a key role in these developments; however, the modern historical consensus is that the largest impact was not through government investment, but rather private investment and the American influence on business practice, consumer buying behavior, and international policy (critics at the time referred to this as Coca-colonization). Along with the new-found peace following decades of war and instability, these factors combined to increase living standards and wages among the public, who generally embraced capitalism and the opportunity to spend their new-found disposable income.

The European Recovery Program, more commonly known as the Marshall Plan, was a U.S. initiative to promote Europe's economic recovery in the aftermath of the Second World War. Between 1948 and 1952, the U.S. distributed approximately 13.3 billion U.S. dollars between the non-communist states of Western Europe, including Greece and Turkey. Notable exceptions from this aid were Spain, due to Franco's unpopularity in the U.S. (although this changed with the Pact of Madrid in 1953), and Finland, who opted out as they did not want to strain relations with the Soviet Union. While money was roughly split between nations based on population size, larger, industrialized countries received a disproportionately higher share of the aid as it was believed their success would trickle down to smaller states. Economic insignificance? The term "Marshall Plan" has become something of a synonym for economic recovery plans in recent decades, yet the modern consensus is that the economic impact of the original was fairly overstated at the time. This investment of capital did help, but European recovery was well underway before the first installments were paid by the U.S, and it was European integration which laid the groundwork for recovery. Unlike the period following the First World War, the victorious powers had learned that cooperation between former adversaries, rather than punishment and reparations, would be the key to future success. It was the ideological influence of the Marshall Plan had the largest impact; Western European business structures became more Americanized, international trade barriers and tariffs were removed, and the transition to more capitalist economies eventually led to the most prosperous period ever recorded in European history, known as the "Golden Age" (1950-1973). The Molotov Plan The initial proposal, made by George C. Marshall, actually invited the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc states to take part in the offer, although this was a token gesture that U.S. knew would never be accepted. The Marshall Plan was announced in June 1947, just a few months after the Truman Doctrine; this was where the U.S. pledged to contain communist expansion across the globe, and is often regarded as the beginning of the Cold War. Not only did the Soviet Union reject the U.S. proposal, but Moscow also forbade any other Eastern Bloc country from taking part; instead the Soviets launched the Molotov Plan, which consolidated their economic power in the Eastern Bloc. While this plan initially rewarded Poland and Czechoslovakia for rejecting Americanization, the heavy reparations placed on the Axis powers meant that it was of little benefit to the likes of East Germany, Hungary, or Romania. Nonetheless, as the Marshall Plan changed the economic direction of Western Europe throughout the Cold War, the Molotov Plan helped shape communist economic development in the East. Eventually both plans developed into much larger endeavors, as the Mutual Security Act of 1951 saw American economic influence stretch beyond Europe, and the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECON) did the same for the Soviet Union.