In October 2024, the Sahm recession indicator was 0.43, a slight decrease from the previous month. The Sahm Rule was developed to flag the onset of an economic recession more quickly than other indicators. The Sahm Rule signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months.

The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) of the United States exhibited notable fluctuations between January 2021 and March 2025. Throughout this period, the WEI reached its lowest point at negative 0.98 percent in the third week of February 2021, while achieving its peak at 10.27 percent in the first week of May 2021. From 2021 through the initial half of 2023, the WEI demonstrated a gradual decline, interspersed with occasional minor upturns. This phase was succeeded by a period characterized by a modest overall increase. What is the Weekly Economic Index? The Weekly Economic Index (WEI) is an index of real economic activity using high-frequency data, used to signal the state of the U.S. economy. It is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate. The indicators reflected in the WEI cover consumer behavior, the labor market, and production.

The Great Recession was a period of economic contraction which came in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. The recession was triggered by the collapse of the U.S. housing market and subsequent bankruptcies among Wall Street financial institutions, the most significant of which being the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. These economic convulsions caused consumer confidence, measured by the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), to drop sharply in 2007 and the beginning of 2008. How does the Consumer Confidence Index work? The CCI measures household's expectation of their future economic situation and, consequently, their likely future spending and savings decisions. A score of 100 in the index would indicate a neutral economic outlook, with consumers neither being optimistic nor pessimistic about the near future. Scores below 100 are then more pessimistic, while scores above 100 indicate optimism about the economy. Consumer confidence can have a self-fulfilling effect on the economy, as when consumers are pessimistic about the economy, they tend to save and postpone spending, contracting aggregate demand and causing the economy to slow down. Conversely, when consumers are optimistic and willing to spend, this can have a reinforcing effect as wages and employment may rise when consumers spend more. CCI and the Great Recession As the reality of the trouble which the U.S. financial sector was in set in over 2007, consumer confidence dropped sharply from being slightly positive, to being deeply pessimistic by the Summer of 2008. While confidence began to slowly rebound up until September 2008, with the panic caused by Lehman's bankruptcy and the freezing of new credit creation, the CCI plummeted once more, reaching its lowest point during the recession in February 2008. The U.S. government stepped in to prevent the bankruptcy of AIG in 2008, promising to do the same for any future possible failures in the financial system. This 'backstopping' policy, whereby the government assured that the economy would not be allowed to fall further into crisis, along with the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policies used to restart the economy, contributed to a rebound in consumer confidence in 2009 and 2010. In spite of this, consumers still remained pessimistic about the economy.

The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States from 1987 to 2023, with projections up until 2029. The gross domestic product of the United States in 2023 amounted to around 27.72 trillion U.S. dollars. The United States and the economy The United States’ economy is by far the largest in the world; a status which can be determined by several key factors, one being gross domestic product: A look at the GDP of the main industrialized and emerging countries shows a significant difference between US GDP and the GDP of China, the runner-up in the ranking, as well as the followers Japan, Germany and France. Interestingly, it is assumed that China will have surpassed the States in terms of GDP by 2030, but for now, the United States is among the leading countries in almost all other relevant rankings and statistics, trade and employment for example. See the U.S. GDP growth rate here. Just like in other countries, the American economy suffered a severe setback when the economic crisis occurred in 2008. The American economy entered a recession caused by the collapsing real estate market and increasing unemployment. Despite this, the standard of living is considered quite high; life expectancy in the United States has been continually increasing slightly over the past decade, the unemployment rate in the United States has been steadily recovering and decreasing since the crisis, and the Big Mac Index, which represents the global prices for a Big Mac, a popular indicator for the purchasing power of an economy, shows that the United States’ purchasing power in particular is only slightly lower than that of the euro area.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the United States expanded 2.50 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024 over the same quarter of the previous year. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States GDP Annual Growth Rate - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Explore the stability of gold prices amidst economic uncertainty in the U.S., despite slight dips and fluctuating market conditions.

By November 2025, it is projected that there is a probability of 33.56 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This reflects a significant decrease from the projection of the preceding month.

The main stock market index in the United States (US500) decreased 176 points or 2.99% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks this benchmark index from United States. United States Stock Market Index - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on March of 2025.

The weekly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate fluctuated significantly in the United States between January 2021 and April 2023. Between January and April 2021, it increased sharply from -0.71 percent to 25.12 percent. From April 2021 onwards, it started to decrease drastically, with slight occasional increases, and reached its lowest value at negative 0.43 percent in November 2022. After November 2022, the weekly GDP growth rate increased notably.

The Long Depression was, by a large margin, the longest-lasting recession in U.S. history. It began in the U.S. with the Panic of 1873, and lasted for over five years. This depression was the largest in a series of recessions at the turn of the 20th century, which proved to be a period of overall stagnation as the U.S. financial markets failed to keep pace with industrialization and changes in monetary policy. Great Depression The Great Depression, however, is widely considered to have been the most severe recession in U.S. history. Following the Wall Street Crash in 1929, the country's economy collapsed, wages fell and a quarter of the workforce was unemployed. It would take almost four years for recovery to begin. Additionally, U.S. expansion and integration in international markets allowed the depression to become a global event, which became a major catalyst in the build up to the Second World War. Decreasing severity When comparing recessions before and after the Great Depression, they have generally become shorter and less frequent over time. Only three recessions in the latter period have lasted more than one year. Additionally, while there were 12 recessions between 1880 and 1920, there were only six recessions between 1980 and 2020. The most severe recession in recent years was the financial crisis of 2007 (known as the Great Recession), where irresponsible lending policies and lack of government regulation allowed for a property bubble to develop and become detached from the economy over time, this eventually became untenable and the bubble burst. Although the causes of both the Great Depression and Great Recession were similar in many aspects, economists have been able to use historical evidence to try and predict, prevent, or limit the impact of future recessions.

In 2019, 42 percent of surveyed respondents said that they believe the next economic recession to hit the United States will be a major recession. This is compared to 28 percent of respondents who said they believe the next recession will be minor.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in the United States decreased to 12.50 points in March from 18.10 points in February of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

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US Residential Construction Market Size 2025-2029

The residential construction market size in the US is forecast to increase by USD 242.9 million at a CAGR of 4.5% between 2024 and 2029.

The residential construction market is experiencing significant growth, driven by several key factors. Firstly, the increasing household formation rates in the US continue to fuel demand for new housing units. Secondly, there is a rising focus on sustainability in residential construction projects, with homebuilders increasingly adopting energy-efficient and eco-friendly building materials and practices.
However, the market also faces challenges, including a shortage of skilled labor for large-scale residential real estate projects, which can impact project timelines and budgets. These trends and challenges are shaping the future of the residential construction industry in the US.

What will be the US Residential Construction Market Size During the Forecast Period?

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The residential construction market is experiencing a significant shift as the affordable housing trend gains momentum. The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the federal funds rate low has contributed to a decrease in mortgage rates, making it an opportune time for home buyers to enter the market. However, the housing supply remains a concern, with construction spending in the residential investment sector showing only modest growth. The labor market's current state is another factor influencing the residential construction industry. With a low unemployment rate, there is a high demand for labor, leading to increased wages and, in turn, higher construction costs.
Inflation also poses a challenge, as it erodes the purchasing power of home buyers and builders alike. The economy's overall health plays a crucial role in the residential construction market's dynamics. A strong economy typically leads to increased demand for new homes, as evidenced by the double-digit growth in housing starts and building permits for single-family homes. However, a recession can lead to a significant decrease in construction activity, as seen in the cancellation rate of housing projects. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, inflation, and the economy's health all impact the residential construction market. Affordable housing programs, such as housing choice vouchers and fair housing programs, play a vital role in ensuring access to housing for a broader population. The construction sectors must navigate these market dynamics to remain competitive and meet the demand for new homes.
The US residential construction market is seeing significant shifts, driven by various housing market trends. Sustainable homebuilding practices are gaining momentum, with a focus on energy-efficient homes and green building materials. Modular construction and prefab housing are becoming increasingly popular for their cost-effective and timely solutions. Urban redevelopment projects are revitalizing city areas, while suburban expansion is fueling demand for new homes. Affordable housing projects are crucial in addressing housing shortages, and real estate investment continues to thrive in these sectors. Smart home integration is also on the rise, with luxury home construction embracing high-tech features. The impact of mortgage rates, coupled with multifamily housing growth and home renovation demand, adds complexity to the market's dynamics.

How is this market segmented and which is the largest segment?

The market research report provides comprehensive data (region-wise segment analysis), with forecasts and estimates in 'USD million' for the period 2025-2029, as well as historical data from 2019-2023 for the following segments.

Product

  Apartments and condominiums
  Villas
  Other types


Type

  New construction
  Renovation


Application

  Single family
  Multi-family


Geography

  US

By Product Insights

The apartments and condominiums segment is estimated to witness significant growth during the forecast period.

The residential construction market in the US is experiencing growth in the apartment and condominium sectors, driven by shifting preferences and lifestyle choices. Urbanization is a significant factor fueling this trend, as more individuals opt for the conveniences and amenities offered in urban areas. As a result, developers are constructing modern, sustainable, and community-focused living spaces in the form of high-rise apartment buildings and condominium complexes. These structures cater to various demographics, including intergenerational groups and younger generations, reflecting diverse living circumstances. The labor economy and vaccination rates have also contributed to the continued activity in the residential sector, allowing for steady progress in construction projects. While the non-residential sector has faced challenges, the residential sector remains a vi

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the BRICS countries have been considered the five foremost developing economies in the world. Originally, the term BRIC was used by economists when talking about the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China, however these countries have held annual summits since 2009, and the group has expanded to include South Africa since 2010. China has the largest GDP of the BRICS country, at 16.86 trillion U.S. dollars in 2021, while the others are all below three trillion. Combined, the BRICS bloc has a GDP over 25.85 trillion U.S. dollars in 2022, which is slightly more than the United States. BRICS economic development China has consistently been the largest economy of this bloc, and its rapid growth has seen it become the second largest economy in the world, behind the U.S.. China's growth has also been much faster than the other BRICS countries; for example, when compared with the second largest BRICS economy, its GDP was less than double the size of Brazil's in 2000, but is almost six times larger than India's in 2021. Since 2000, the country with the second largest GDP has fluctuated between Brazil, Russia, and India, due to a variety of factors, although India has held this position since 2015 (when the other two experienced recession), and it's growth rate is on track to surpass China's in the coming decade. South Africa has consistently had the smallest economy of the BRICS bloc, and it has just the third largest economy in Africa; its inclusion in this group is due to the fact that it is the most advanced and stable major economy in Africa, and it holds strategic importance due to the financial potential of the continent in the coming decades. Future developments It is predicted that China's GDP will overtake that of the U.S. by the end of the 2020s, to become the largest economy in the world, while some also estimate that India will also overtake the U.S. around the middle of the century. Additionally, the BRICS group is more than just an economic or trading bloc, and its New Development Bank was established in 2014 to invest in sustainable infrastructure and renewable energy across the globe. While relations between its members were often strained or of less significance in the 20th century, their current initiatives have given them a much greater international influence. The traditional great powers represented in the Group of Seven (G7) have seen their international power wane in recent decades, while BRICS countries have seen theirs grow, especially on a regional level. Today, the original BRIC countries combine with the Group of Seven (G7), to make up 11 of the world's 12 largest economies, but it is predicted that they will move further up on this list in the coming decades.

The United States M1 money supply reached approximately 18.45 trillion dollars by January 2025, showing a slight uptick from the previous year. This modest increase follows a period of contraction in late 2022 and early 2023, which stood in stark contrast to the dramatic expansion seen from May 2020 onward. The earlier surge was largely attributed to the Federal Reserve's aggressive quantitative easing measures implemented in response to the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The gross domestic product of the United Kingdom was around 2.56 trillion British pounds, an increase when compared to the previous year, when UK GDP amounted to about 2.54 trillion pounds. The significant drop in GDP visible in 2020 was due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the smaller declines in 2008 and 2009 because of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s. Low growth problem in the UK Despite growing by 0.9 percent in 2024, and 0.4 percent in 2023 the UK economy is not that much larger than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic. Since recovering from a huge fall in GDP in the second quarter of 2020, the UK economy has alternated between periods of contraction and low growth, with the UK even in a recession at the end of 2023. While economic growth picked up somewhat in 2024, GDP per capita is lower than it was in 2022, following two years of negative growth. How big is the UK economy in relation to the rest of the world? As of 2024, the UK had the sixth-largest economy in the world, behind the United States, China, Japan, Germany, and India. Among European nations, this meant that the UK currently has the second-largest economy in Europe, although the economy of France, Europe's third-largest economy, is of a similar size. The UK's global economic ranking will likely fall in the coming years, however, with the UK's share of global GDP expected to fall from 2.16 percent in 2025 to 2.02 percent by 2029.  

The statistic shows the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Canada from 1987 to 2023, with projections up until 2029. In 2023, the gross domestic product per capita in Canada was around 53,607.4 U.S. dollars. Canada's economy GDP per capita is a measurement often used to determine economic growth and potential increases in productivity and is calculated by taking the GDP and dividing it by the total population in the country. In 2014, Canada had one of the largest GDP per capita values in the world, a value that has grown continuously since 2010 after experiencing a slight downturn due to the financial crisis of 2008. Canada is seen as one of the premier countries in the world, particularly due to its strong economy and healthy international relations, most notably with the United States. Canada and the United States have political, social and economical similarities that further strengthen their relationship. The United States was and continues to be Canada’s primary and most important trade partner and vice versa. Canada’s economy is partly supported by its exports, most notably crude oil, which was the country’s largest export category. Canada was also one of the world’s leading oil exporters in 2013, exporting more than the United States. Additionally, Canada was also a major exporter of goods such as motor vehicles and mechanical appliances, which subsequently ranked the country as one of the world’s top export countries in 2013.

The value of M&A deals globally has risen over the past decade and tends to mirror the state of the economy overall. Dips can be seen in the years during and following a recession, and M&A activity increases in periods of economic growth. In 2024, the value of global M&A deals amounted to 2.6 trillion U.S. dollars, a slight increase compared to the previous year.

As of December 30, 2024, 14 economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of 1,370 percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with -350 percent; and Russia with -273 percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.

This statistic shows the estimated breakeven oil prices for 2016 in Middle Eastern and Northern African countries, in U.S. dollars per barrel, based on imports. In that year, the breakeven oil price based on imports in Libya was some 134.10 U.S. dollars.

Breakeven oil prices A breakeven oil price is the price at which oil must be sold in order to recover the costs associated with its production. With the recent downturn in the global oil industry, breakeven oil prices are an important measure of an oil extractor's ability to remain profitable. Breakeven oil prices vary greatly throughout the world due to the widely differing costs associated with extracting different types of oil, the unique circumstances associated with oil extraction in different oil-producing regions, and so on.

In times of economic downturn, oil resources with higher breakeven costs are the first to be discontinued. Unconventional oil resources, such as oil sands and shale oil, are more expensive to produce than conventional oil, and therefore suffer when oil prices drop. Since the oil glut began in 2014, even conventional oil deposits that are more expensive to extract are decreasing production. This has lead to significant economic impacts in places where the economy is closely tied to oil, such as Venezuela, which has oil sands deposits in addition to conventional oil resources. While oil prices have increased slightly since a record low in January 2016, it is uncertain how long it will take for oil prices to recover more substantially, if at all.