At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Aug 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States from Q2 1953 to Q2 2025 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

The yield on 10 Year TIPS Yield eased to 1.87% on August 11, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.14 points, though it remains 0.08 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. This dataset includes a chart with historical data for the United States 10 Year TIPS Yield.

The spread between 10–year and two–year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a positive value of 0.49 percent in June 2025. The 10–year minus two–year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000–2001, and the financial crisis of 2007–2008.

United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years data was reported at 3.753 % in Dec 2028. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.745 % for Sep 2028. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.677 % from Mar 2013 (Median) to Dec 2028, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.958 % in Sep 2021 and a record low of 1.563 % in Sep 2016. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M009: Treasury Securities Yields: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

Graph and download economic data for Interest Rates: Long-Term Government Bond Yields: 10-Year: Main (Including Benchmark) for United States (IRLTLT01USA156N) from 1954 to 2024 about long-term, 10-year, bonds, yield, government, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus Federal Funds Rate (T10YFF) from 1962-01-02 to 2025-08-07 about yield curve, spread, 10-year, maturity, Treasury, federal, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity was 4.23% in August of 2025, according to the United States Federal Reserve. Historically, United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity reached a record high of 15.84 in September of 1981 and a record low of 0.52 in August of 2020. Trading Economics provides the current actual value, an historical data chart and related indicators for United States - Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity - last updated from the United States Federal Reserve on August of 2025.

OECD Data Filters: REF_AREA: USA MEASURE: IRLT UNIT_MEASURE: PA ACTIVITY: _Z ADJUSTMENT: _Z TRANSFORMATION: _Z FREQ: M

All OECD data should be cited as follows: OECD (year), (dataset name), (data source) DOI or https://data-explorer.oecd.org/ (https://data-explorer.oecd.org/). (accessed on (date)).

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.83% on August 13, 2025, marking a 0.05 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.15 points, though it remains 0.70 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

As of July 18, 2025, the major economy with the highest yield on 10-year government bonds was Turkey, with a yield of ** percent. This is due to the risks investors take when investing in Turkey, notably due to high inflation rates potentially eradicating any profits made when using a foreign currency to investing in securities denominated in Turkish lira. Of the major developed economies, United Kingdom had one the highest yield on 10-year government bonds at this time with **** percent, while Switzerland had the lowest at **** percent. How does inflation influence the yields of government bonds? Inflation reduces purchasing power over time. Due to this, investors seek higher returns to offset the anticipated decrease in purchasing power resulting from rapid price rises. In countries with high inflation, government bond yields often incorporate investor expectations and risk premiums, resulting in comparatively higher rates offered by these bonds. Why are government bond rates significant? Government bond rates are an important indicator of financial markets, serving as a benchmark for borrowing costs, interest rates, and investor sentiment. They affect the cost of government borrowing, influence the price of various financial instruments, and serve as a reflection of expectations regarding inflation and economic growth. For instance, in financial analysis and investing, people often use the 10-year U.S. government bond rates as a proxy for the longer-term risk-free rate.

The yield on Japan 10Y Bond Yield rose to 1.49% on August 8, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.64 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Japan 10 Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

View data of the inflation-adjusted interest rates on 10-year Treasury securities with a constant maturity.

The statistic presents the average annual return on 10-year bonds in the United States from 2001 to 2018. In 2018, the average annual return on 10-year bonds in the U.S. amounted to **** percent.

Graph and download economic data for ICE BofA 7-10 Year US Corporate Index Total Return Index Value (BAMLCC4A0710YTRIV) from 1992-06-30 to 2025-08-08 about 7 to 10 years, return, corporate, indexes, and USA.

The yield on Israel 10Y Bond Yield eased to 4.16% on August 14, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has fallen by 0.02 points and is 0.59 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. Israel 10-Year Government Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on August of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for Treasury Long-Term Average (Over 10 Years), Inflation-Indexed (DLTIIT) from 2000-01-03 to 2025-08-08 about TIPS, long-term, Treasury, yield, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

As of December 30, 2024, ** economies reported a negative value for their ten year minus two year government bond yield spread: Ukraine with a negative spread of ***** percent; Turkey, with a negative spread of 1332 percent; Nigeria with **** percent; and Russia with **** percent. At this time, almost all long-term debt for major economies was generating positive yields, with only the most stable European countries seeing smaller values. Why is an inverted yield curve important? Often called an inverted yield curve or negative yield curve, a situation where short term debt has a higher yield than long term debt is considered a main indicator of an impending recession. Essentially, this situation reflects an underlying belief among a majority of investors that short term interest rates are about to fall, with the lowering of interest rates being the orthodox fiscal response to a recession. Therefore, investors purchase safe government debt at today's higher interest rate, driving down the yield on long term debt. In the United States, an inverted yield curve for an extended period preceded (almost) all recent recessions. The exception to this is the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic – however, the U.S. ten minus two year spread still came very close to negative territory in mid-2019. Bond yields and the coronavirus pandemic The onset of the coronavirus saw stock markets around the world crash in March 2020. This had an effect on bond markets, with the yield of both long term government debt and short term government debt falling dramatically at this time – reaching negative territory in many countries. With stock values collapsing, many investors placed their money in government debt – which guarantees both a regular interest payment and stable underlying value - in contrast to falling share prices. This led to many investors paying an amount for bonds on the market that was higher than the overall return for the duration of the bond (which is what is signified by a negative yield). However, the calculus is that the small loss taken on stable bonds is less that the losses likely to occur on the market. Moreover, if conditions continue to deteriorate, the bonds may be sold on at an even higher price, partly offsetting the losses from the negative yield.