As of July 22, 2025, the yield for a ten-year U.S. government bond was 4.38 percent, while the yield for a two-year bond was 3.88 percent. This represents an inverted yield curve, whereby bonds of longer maturities provide a lower yield, reflecting investors' expectations for a decline in long-term interest rates. Hence, making long-term debt holders open to more risk under the uncertainty around the condition of financial markets in the future. That markets are uncertain can be seen by considering both the short-term fluctuations, and the long-term downward trend, of the yields of U.S. government bonds from 2006 to 2021, before the treasury yield curve increased again significantly in the following years. What are government bonds? Government bonds, otherwise called ‘sovereign’ or ‘treasury’ bonds, are financial instruments used by governments to raise money for government spending. Investors give the government a certain amount of money (the ‘face value’), to be repaid at a specified time in the future (the ‘maturity date’). In addition, the government makes regular periodic interest payments (called ‘coupon payments’). Once initially issued, government bonds are tradable on financial markets, meaning their value can fluctuate over time (even though the underlying face value and coupon payments remain the same). Investors are attracted to government bonds as, provided the country in question has a stable economy and political system, they are a very safe investment. Accordingly, in periods of economic turmoil, investors may be willing to accept a negative overall return in order to have a safe haven for their money. For example, once the market value is compared to the total received from remaining interest payments and the face value, investors have been willing to accept a negative return on two-year German government bonds between 2014 and 2021. Conversely, if the underlying economy and political structures are weak, investors demand a higher return to compensate for the higher risk they take on. Consequently, the return on bonds in emerging markets like Brazil are consistently higher than that of the United States (and other developed economies). Inverted yield curves When investors are worried about the financial future, it can lead to what is called an ‘inverted yield curve’. An inverted yield curve is where investors pay more for short term bonds than long term, indicating they do not have confidence in long-term financial conditions. Historically, the yield curve has historically inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions. The last U.S. yield curve inversion occurred at several brief points in 2019 – a trend which continued until the Federal Reserve cut interest rates several times over that year. However, the ultimate trigger for the next recession was the unpredicted, exogenous shock of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, showing how such informal indicators may be grounded just as much in coincidence as causation.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (WGS30YR) from 1977-02-18 to 2025-08-22 about 30-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

At the end of 2024, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond was **** percent. Despite the increase in recent years, the highest yields could be observed in the early 1990s. What affects bond prices? The factors that play a big role in valuation and interest in government bonds are interest rate and inflation. If inflation is expected to be high, investors will demand a higher return on bonds. Country credit ratings indicate how stable the economy is and thus also influence the government bond prices. Risk and bonds Finally, when investors are worried about the bond issuer’s ability to pay at the end of the term, they demand a higher interest rate. For the U.S. Treasury, the vast majority of investors consider the investment to be perfectly safe. Ten-year government bonds from other countries show that countries seen as more risky have a higher bond return. On the other hand, countries in which investors do not expect economic growth have a lower yield.

In 2024, the yield on 10-year U.S. treasury securities increased to **** percent, up from **** percent in the previous year. 2020 recorded the lowest value in the period under consideration, and well below the longer-term average. In 1980 the yield was ***** percent. What are treasury securities? The United States government consistently has a budget deficit, and it finances this spending with debt issued by the Treasury Department. These treasury securities are attractive investments because most investors believe that the United States Treasury Department will never default. For this reason, many investors of different varieties hold these securities. Country differences The markets consider treasury securities to be low-risk, as they are secured by governments. Different countries differ in level of indebtment, value of investments, stability of currency, GDP growth, inflation, etc. These factors are the reasons why yields on government bonds differ from country to country. The yield shows how much a given government has to pay to the investors for the money that it borrows.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 2-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS2) from 1976-06-01 to 2025-08-28 about 2-year, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (WGS1MO) from 2001-08-03 to 2025-08-22 about 1-month, bills, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

Net Purchases of US Treasury Bonds and Notes decreased by 5000 million dollars in June of 2025. This dataset provides the latest reported value for - United States Net Purchases of US Treasury Bonds and Notes - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 5-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (WFII5) from 2003-01-03 to 2025-08-22 about TIPS, maturity, Treasury, securities, 5-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 20-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed (DFII20) from 2004-07-27 to 2025-08-28 about 20-year, TIPS, maturity, Treasury, securities, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

U.S. ten-year government bonds have provided significantly higher yields compared to German ten-year bonds since 2008, with the former yielding 4.42 percent in May 2025 compared to 2.56 percent for the latter. Being safe but low-return investments, treasury bond yields are generally considered an indicator of investor confidence about the economy. A rising yield indicates falling rates and falling demand, meaning that investors prefer to invest in higher-risk, higher-reward investments; a falling yield suggests the opposite.

The Average Interest Rates on U.S. Treasury Securities dataset provides average interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities on a monthly basis. Its primary purpose is to show the average interest rate on a variety of marketable and non-marketable Treasury securities. Marketable securities consist of Treasury Bills, Notes, Bonds, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), Floating Rate Notes (FRNs), and Federal Financing Bank (FFB) securities. Non-marketable securities consist of Domestic Series, Foreign Series, State and Local Government Series (SLGS), U.S. Savings Securities, and Government Account Series (GAS) securities. Marketable securities are negotiable and transferable and may be sold on the secondary market. Non-marketable securities are not negotiable or transferrable and are not sold on the secondary market. This is a useful dataset for investors and bond holders to compare how interest rates on Treasury securities have changed over time.

The spread between 10–year and two–year U.S. Treasury bond yields reached a positive value of 0.49 percent in June 2025. The 10–year minus two–year Treasury bond spread is generally considered to be an advance warning of severe weakness in the stock market. Negative spreads occurred prior to the recession of the early 1990s, the tech-bubble crash in 2000–2001, and the financial crisis of 2007–2008.

In June 2025, the average yield on ten-year government bonds in the United States was **** percent. This was the ******* of the selected developed economies considered in this statistic. Bonds and yields – additional information The bond yield indicates the level of return that the investor can expect from a given type of bond. The government of Italy, for instance, offered the investors **** percent yield on ten-year government bonds for borrowing their money in June 2025. In the United States, government needs are also financed by selling various debt instruments such as Treasury bills, notes, bonds and savings bonds to investors. The largest holders of U.S. debt are the Federal Reserve and Government accounts in the United States. The major foreign holders of the United States treasury securities are Japan, Mainland China, and the United Kingdom.

Graph and download economic data for Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 6-Month Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis (DGS6MO) from 1981-09-01 to 2025-08-28 about 6-month, bills, maturity, Treasury, interest rate, interest, rate, and USA.

This table is a subsidiary table for Means of Financing the Deficit or Disposition of Surplus by the U.S. Government providing a detailed view of federal funds and trust funds that are invested in Government Account Series (GAS) securities. Federal funds include general funds, special funds, and revolving funds (public enterprise revolving funds, intragovernmental revolving funds, and credit financing accounts). A trust fund is a type of account, designated by law, for receipts or offsetting receipts dedicated to specific purposes and the expenditure of these receipts. This table includes total and subtotal rows that should be excluded when aggregating data. Some rows represent elements of the dataset's hierarchy, but are not assigned values. The classification_id for each of these elements can be used as the parent_id for underlying data elements to calculate their implied values. Subtotal rows are available to access this same information.

Bond Fund Sales Market Outlook

The bond fund sales market size was valued at approximately USD 10 trillion in 2023 and is projected to reach around USD 15 trillion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%. This growth is primarily driven by increasing investor demand for stable and diversified income streams amidst global economic uncertainties. The market size expansion is fostered by factors such as an aging global population seeking more conservative investment options, heightened volatility in equity markets, and favorable regulatory changes supporting bond fund investments.

One of the primary growth factors for the bond fund sales market is the demographic shift towards an aging population, particularly in developed regions such as North America and Europe. As more individuals approach retirement age, there is a heightened need for investment products that offer steady income with reduced risk exposure. Bond funds, known for their relatively stable returns and lower volatility compared to equity funds, serve as an attractive option for this demographic. Additionally, the increasing life expectancy rates globally are pushing retirees to seek long-term investment solutions that can provide consistent income streams over extended periods.

Another significant growth driver is the evolving regulatory landscape that favors bond investments. Governments and financial regulatory bodies in various regions are implementing rules and guidelines that promote transparency and investor protection in the bond markets. These regulatory changes increase investor confidence and make bond funds more appealing to both retail and institutional investors. Furthermore, the introduction of green bonds and other socially responsible investment (SRI) products within the bond fund market is drawing interest from a growing segment of environmentally and socially conscious investors.

Technological advancements and the proliferation of digital investment platforms are also contributing to the growth of the bond fund sales market. Online platforms and robo-advisors are making it easier for retail investors to access and manage bond fund investments with lower fees and greater convenience. These platforms provide investors with tools and resources to make informed investment decisions, thereby increasing the participation rate of individual investors in the bond market. This digital transformation is democratizing access to bond funds and expanding the market's reach across various investor segments.

Regionally, the bond fund sales market exhibits diverse growth patterns. North America and Europe are expected to maintain their dominance due to their mature financial markets and high levels of investor awareness and engagement. However, the Asia-Pacific region is anticipated to exhibit the highest CAGR during the forecast period, driven by rapid economic growth, rising disposable incomes, and increasing investor sophistication. Latin America and the Middle East & Africa regions are also witnessing growing interest in bond funds, albeit at a slower pace, as these markets gradually develop and integrate into the global financial system.

Fund Type Analysis

Government bond funds are a cornerstone of the bond fund market, offering investors a relatively low-risk investment option backed by government securities. These funds have been traditionally appealing to risk-averse investors, including retirees and conservative institutional investors. The demand for government bond funds is amplified during periods of economic uncertainty, as they are perceived as safe havens. The increasing issuance of government bonds to finance fiscal stimulus and infrastructure projects globally is also contributing to the growth of this segment. Moreover, central banks' policies, such as quantitative easing, have increased the liquidity and attractiveness of these bonds.

Corporate bond funds represent a significant portion of the bond fund market, providing higher yields compared to government bonds, albeit with increased risk. These funds invest in bonds issued by corporations to finance their operations and expansions. The corporate bond market is highly dynamic, with companies frequently entering and exiting the market based on their financing needs and credit ratings. The growth of this segment is supported by strong corporate earnings and favorable economic conditions that enhance companies' ability to service their debt. Additionally, the trend towards globalization and cross-border investments is expanding the market for corporate bond funds.

The value of U.S. Treasury securities held by residents of Russia amounted to ** million U.S. dollars in March 2025, marking a stark contrast to ***** billion U.S. dollars held in January 2020. The lowest over the period under consideration was recorded in November 2023 at ** million U.S. dollars. Furthermore, in March 2020, the figure plummeted to **** billion U.S. dollars, down from **** billion U.S. dollars one month prior. Russia’s holdings of U.S. treasury securities have decreased since 2014 following the Western sanctions over the annexation of Crimea and have further dropped in 2022 after more restrictions were imposed over the war in Ukraine. What are U.S. treasury holdings? U.S. treasury holdings are government debt instruments that contribute to the funding of various government projects in the country. The U.S. Department of Treasury allows individuals and organizations to invest in treasury notes, bills, and bonds, which are the main three types of securities. Just under half of the outstanding ** trillion U.S. dollars as of May 2024 were in the form of treasury notes. The notes have varying maturities and coupon payment frequencies, which are different from the maturity periods of treasury bills and bonds. Main foreign holders of U.S. treasury securities Foreign holdings of U.S. treasury debt amounted to ***** trillion U.S. dollars as of January 2024. Japan and China held the largest portions, with China possessing ***** billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. Additionally, other significant foreign holders included oil exporting countries and Caribbean banking centers.

In 2018, the average total volume of treasury securities traded per day was over 547 billion U.S. dollars. This means that every day the market was open, the average amount of U.S. government securities bought and sold amounted to half a trillion U.S. dollars in that year.

What are treasury securities?

Treasury securities are U.S. government debt, bonds sold to finance the United States government. Since the United States is seen as a guaranteed investment, these bonds are often used by large financial firms as collateral. The yield on a Treasury bond is minimal, but these institutions often do not hold them until maturity, instead trading them on secondary market.

Other options

The federal funds rate is the rate the Federal Reserve charges banks for overnight loans. Other assets, such as mortgaged backed securities, can also be used like treasury securities. Mortgage backed securities are bundles of home loans packaged together. Such bundling makes the overall security safer, unless there is a systemic shock to the housing market which would undermine the entire package.

As of December 2024, Japan held United States treasury securities totaling about 1.06 trillion U.S. dollars. Foreign holders of United States treasury debt According to the Federal Reserve and U.S. Department of the Treasury, foreign countries held a total of 8.5 trillion U.S. dollars in U.S. treasury securities as of December 2024. Of the total held by foreign countries, Japan and Mainland China held the greatest portions, with China holding 759 billion U.S. dollars in U.S. securities. The U.S. public debt In 2023, the United States had a total public national debt of 33.2 trillion U.S. dollars, an amount that has been rising steadily, particularly since 2008. In 2023, the total interest expense on debt held by the public of the United States reached 678 billion U.S. dollars, while 197 billion U.S. dollars in interest expense were intra governmental debt holdings. Total outlays of the U.S. government were 6.1 trillion U.S. dollars in 2023. By 2029, spending is projected to reach 8.3 trillion U.S. dollars.