In June 2025, the yield on a 10-year U.S. Treasury note was **** percent, forecasted to decrease to reach **** percent by February 2026. Treasury securities are debt instruments used by the government to finance the national debt. Who owns treasury notes? Because the U.S. treasury notes are generally assumed to be a risk-free investment, they are often used by large financial institutions as collateral. Because of this, billions of dollars in treasury securities are traded daily. Other countries also hold U.S. treasury securities, as do U.S. households. Investors and institutions accept the relatively low interest rate because the U.S. Treasury guarantees the investment. Looking into the future Because these notes are so commonly traded, their interest rate also serves as a signal about the market’s expectations of future growth. When markets expect the economy to grow, forecasts for treasury notes will reflect that in a higher interest rate. In fact, one harbinger of recession is an inverted yield curve, when the return on 3-month treasury bills is higher than the ten-year rate. While this does not always lead to a recession, it certainly signals pessimism from financial markets.

The yield on US 10 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.38% on July 30, 2025, marking a 0.05 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.14 points and is 0.34 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years: Annual data was reported at 3.742 % in 2028. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.715 % for 2027. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years: Annual data is updated yearly, averaging 3.676 % from Dec 2013 (Median) to 2028, with 16 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.954 % in 2021 and a record low of 1.841 % in 2016. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Notes Yield: 10 Years: Annual data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M009: Treasury Securities Yields: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

The yield on US 3 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.88% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.13 points, though it remains 0.09 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to increase by *** percentage points by 2027, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by *** percentage points. From *** percent in 2024, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach *** percent in 2027.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data was reported at 1.981 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 1.667 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data is updated quarterly, averaging 4.450 % from Sep 1981 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 148 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 14.439 % in Sep 1981 and a record low of 0.057 % in Mar 2012. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bills Rate: 3 Months: Mean: Plus 1 Qtr data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The yield on US 7 Year Note Bond Yield rose to 4.16% on July 30, 2025, marking a 0.06 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.14 points and is 0.21 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 7 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on US 30 Year Bond Yield eased to 4.87% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points and is 0.59 points higher than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 30 Year Bond Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

United States CBO Projection: Treasury Bills Yield: 10 Years data was reported at 2.822 % in Dec 2028. This records an increase from the previous number of 2.816 % for Sep 2028. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Bills Yield: 10 Years data is updated quarterly, averaging 2.744 % from Mar 2013 (Median) to Dec 2028, with 64 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.240 % in Mar 2022 and a record low of 0.020 % in Jun 2015. United States CBO Projection: Treasury Bills Yield: 10 Years data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Congressional Budget Office. The data is categorized under Global Database’s United States – Table US.M009: Treasury Securities Yields: Projection: Congressional Budget Office.

The yield on US 2 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.90% on July 29, 2025, marking a 0.03 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.18 points, though it remains 0.47 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. US 2 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bonds 10 Years: Median: Plus 4 Qtrs data was reported at 3.467 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.190 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bonds 10 Years: Median: Plus 4 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 5.002 % from Mar 1992 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 106 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 7.710 % in Dec 1994 and a record low of 2.200 % in Sep 2012. United States FRBOP Forecast: Treasury Bonds 10 Years: Median: Plus 4 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The yield on US 3 Month Bill Bond Yield eased to 4.34% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.01 points, though it remains 0.92 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 3 Month Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on US 52 Week Bill Bond Yield rose to 4.13% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point increase from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.13 points, though it remains 0.54 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 52 Week Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

We use the yield curve to predict future GDP growth and recession probabilities. The spread between short- and long-term rates typically correlates with economic growth. Predications are calculated using a model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Released monthly.

The yield on US 4 Week Bill Yield eased to 4.33% on July 29, 2025, marking a 0.01 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.11 points, though it remains 1.05 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 4 Week Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

Graph and download economic data for 10-Year Real Interest Rate (REAINTRATREARAT10Y) from Jan 1982 to Jul 2025 about 10-year, interest rate, interest, real, rate, and USA.

United States FRBOP Forecast: YS: 10Yr TBonds over 3Mo Tbills: Median: Plus 4 Qtrs data was reported at 0.800 % in Jun 2018. This records a decrease from the previous number of 1.100 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP Forecast: YS: 10Yr TBonds over 3Mo Tbills: Median: Plus 4 Qtrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 1.932 % from Mar 1992 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 106 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 3.500 % in Mar 2011 and a record low of -0.025 % in Dec 2000. United States FRBOP Forecast: YS: 10Yr TBonds over 3Mo Tbills: Median: Plus 4 Qtrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The yield on US 6 Month Bill Bond Yield eased to 4.28% on July 31, 2025, marking a 0 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.03 points, though it remains 0.78 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 6 Month Bill Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

The yield on US 5 Year Note Bond Yield eased to 3.91% on July 29, 2025, marking a 0.07 percentage point decrease from the previous session. Over the past month, the yield has edged up by 0.10 points, though it remains 0.13 points lower than a year ago, according to over-the-counter interbank yield quotes for this government bond maturity. United States 5 Year Note Yield - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on July of 2025.

United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Year: Mean: Current Plus 2 Yrs data was reported at 3.682 % in Jun 2018. This records an increase from the previous number of 3.592 % for Mar 2018. United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Year: Mean: Current Plus 2 Yrs data is updated quarterly, averaging 3.484 % from Sep 2009 (Median) to Jun 2018, with 36 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 4.833 % in Jun 2010 and a record low of 2.681 % in Dec 2012. United States FRBOP: Annual Treasury Bonds Rate: 10 Year: Mean: Current Plus 2 Yrs data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The data is categorized under Global Database’s USA – Table US.M006: Treasury Bills Rates: Forecast: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.