Whereas the population is expected to decrease somewhat until 2100 in Asia, Europe, and South America, it is predicted to grow significantly in Africa. While there were 1.55 billion inhabitants on the continent at the beginning of 2025, the number of inhabitants is expected to reach 3.81 billion by 2100. In total, the global population is expected to reach nearly 10.18 billion by 2100. Worldwide population In the United States, the total population is expected to steadily increase over the next couple of years. In 2024, Asia held over half of the global population and is expected to have the highest number of people living in urban areas in 2050. Asia is home to the two most populous countries, India and China, both with a population of over one billion people. However, the small country of Monaco had the highest population density worldwide in 2024. Effects of overpopulation Alongside the growing worldwide population, there are negative effects of overpopulation. The increasing population puts a higher pressure on existing resources and contributes to pollution. As the population grows, the demand for food grows, which requires more water, which in turn takes away from the freshwater available. Concurrently, food needs to be transported through different mechanisms, which contributes to air pollution. Not every resource is renewable, meaning the world is using up limited resources that will eventually run out. Furthermore, more species will become extinct which harms the ecosystem and food chain. Overpopulation was considered to be one of the most important environmental issues worldwide in 2020.

In the past four centuries, the population of the Thirteen Colonies and United States of America has grown from a recorded 350 people around the Jamestown colony in Virginia in 1610, to an estimated 346 million in 2025. While the fertility rate has now dropped well below replacement level, and the population is on track to go into a natural decline in the 2040s, projected high net immigration rates mean the population will continue growing well into the next century, crossing the 400 million mark in the 2070s. Indigenous population Early population figures for the Thirteen Colonies and United States come with certain caveats. Official records excluded the indigenous population, and they generally remained excluded until the late 1800s. In 1500, in the first decade of European colonization of the Americas, the native population living within the modern U.S. borders was believed to be around 1.9 million people. The spread of Old World diseases, such as smallpox, measles, and influenza, to biologically defenseless populations in the New World then wreaked havoc across the continent, often wiping out large portions of the population in areas that had not yet made contact with Europeans. By the time of Jamestown's founding in 1607, it is believed the native population within current U.S. borders had dropped by almost 60 percent. As the U.S. expanded, indigenous populations were largely still excluded from population figures as they were driven westward, however taxpaying Natives were included in the census from 1870 to 1890, before all were included thereafter. It should be noted that estimates for indigenous populations in the Americas vary significantly by source and time period. Migration and expansion fuels population growth The arrival of European settlers and African slaves was the key driver of population growth in North America in the 17th century. Settlers from Britain were the dominant group in the Thirteen Colonies, before settlers from elsewhere in Europe, particularly Germany and Ireland, made a large impact in the mid-19th century. By the end of the 19th century, improvements in transport technology and increasing economic opportunities saw migration to the United States increase further, particularly from southern and Eastern Europe, and in the first decade of the 1900s the number of migrants to the U.S. exceeded one million people in some years. It is also estimated that almost 400,000 African slaves were transported directly across the Atlantic to mainland North America between 1500 and 1866 (although the importation of slaves was abolished in 1808). Blacks made up a much larger share of the population before slavery's abolition. Twentieth and twenty-first century The U.S. population has grown steadily since 1900, reaching one hundred million in the 1910s, two hundred million in the 1960s, and three hundred million in 2007. Since WWII, the U.S. has established itself as the world's foremost superpower, with the world's largest economy, and most powerful military. This growth in prosperity has been accompanied by increases in living standards, particularly through medical advances, infrastructure improvements, clean water accessibility. These have all contributed to higher infant and child survival rates, as well as an increase in life expectancy (doubling from roughly 40 to 80 years in the past 150 years), which have also played a large part in population growth. As fertility rates decline and increases in life expectancy slows, migration remains the largest factor in population growth. Since the 1960s, Latin America has now become the most common origin for migrants in the U.S., while immigration rates from Asia have also increased significantly. It remains to be seen how immigration restrictions of the current administration affect long-term population projections for the United States.

This graph shows population projections for the United States of America. The estimated population of the USA in 2050 is 398 million residents. Population The U.S. Census Bureau presents annual projections for the growth of the U.S. population up to the year 2060. By 2050, it is estimated that the American population will surpass 398 million citizens. The U.S. census also projects a regressing annual growth rate, starting at 0.8 percent in 2015 and decreasing to 0.46 percent by 2060.

The UN population division publishes population projections for the entire world up to the year 2100. The United Nations also projects a regressing annual growth rate of the world population. Between 2015 and 2020, the population is expected to increase by 1.04 percent annually. Around 2060, the annual growth rate will have decreased to 0.34 percent.

The Georeferenced U.S. County-Level Population Projections, Total and by Sex, Race and Age, Based on the SSPs, 2020-2100 consists of county-level population projection scenarios of total population, and by age, sex, and race in five-year intervals for all U.S. counties for the period 2020 - 2100. These data have numerous potential uses and can serve as inputs for addressing questions involving sub-national demographic change in the United States in the near, middle- and long-term.

From now until 2100, India and China will remain the most populous countries in the world, however China's population decline has already started, and it is on course to fall by around 50 percent in the 2090s; while India's population decline is projected to begin in the 2060s. Of the 10 most populous countries in the world in 2100, five will be located in Asia, four in Africa, as well as the United States. Rapid growth in Africa Rapid population growth across Africa will see the continent's population grow from around 1.5 billion people in 2024 to 3.8 billion in 2100. Additionally, unlike China or India, population growth in many of these countries is not expected to go into decline, and instead is expected to continue well into the 2100s. Previous estimates had projected these countries' populations would be much higher by 2100 (the 2019 report estimated Nigeria's population would exceed 650 million), yet the increased threat of the climate crisis and persistent instability is delaying demographic development and extending population growth. The U.S. as an outlier Compared to the nine other largest populations in 2100, the United States stands out as it is more demographically advanced, politically stable, and economically stronger. However, while most other so-called "advanced countries" are projected to see their population decline drastically in the coming decades, the U.S. population is projected to continue growing into the 2100s. This will largely be driven by high rates of immigration into the U.S., which will drive growth despite fertility rates being around 1.6 births per woman (below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman), and the slowing rate of life expectancy. Current projections estimate the U.S. will have a net migration rate over 1.2 million people per year for the remainder of the century.

Climate and land-use change are major components of global environmental change with feedbacks between these components. The consequences of these interactions show that land use may exacerbate or alleviate climate change effects. Based on these findings it is important to use land-use scenarios that are consistent with the specific assumptions underlying climate-change scenarios. The Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project developed land-use outputs that are based on a downscaled version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines. ICLUS outputs are derived from a pair of models. A demographic model generates county-level population estimates that are distributed by a spatial allocation model (SERGoM v3) as housing density across the landscape. Land-use outputs were developed for the four main SRES storylines and a baseline ("base case"). The model is run for the conterminous USA and output is available for each scenario by decade to 2100. In addition to housing density at a 1 hectare spatial resolution, this project also generated estimates of impervious surface at a resolution of 1 square kilometer. This shapefile holds population data for all counties of the conterminous USA for all decades (2010-2100) and SRES population growth scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2), as well as a 'base case' (BC) scenario, for use in the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project.

The methodology used to produce these projections differs from ICLUS v2.0 (https://cfpub.epa.gov/ncea/iclus/recordisplay.cfm?deid=322479). The demographic components of change (i.e., rates of fertility and mortality) for ICLUS v2.1 were taken directly from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer (http://witt.null2.net/shiny/wic/). These projections were produced more recently than the Census projections used in ICLUS v2.0, and incorporate more recent observations of population change. SSP2 is a “middle-of-the-road” projection, where social, economic and technological trends do not shift markedly from historical patterns, resulting in a U.S. population of 455 million people by 2100. Domestic migration trends remain largely consistent with the recent past, however the amenity value of local climate (average precipitation and temperature for summer and winter) is used in ICLUS v2.1.1 to influence migration patterns. The name of the climate model used as the source of future climate patterns is included at the end of the file name (e.g., "GISS-E2-R" or "HadGEM2-ES"). The approach for incorporating climate change into the migration model is described in the ICLUS v2.0 documentation. The SSP5 narrative describes a rapidly growing and flourishing global economy that remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, and a U.S. population that exceeds 730 million by 2100. ICLUS v2.1 land use projections under SSP5 result in a considerably larger expansion of developed lands relative to SSP2. The the amenity value of local climate (average precipitation and temperature for summer and winter) is used in ICLUS v2.1.1 to influence migration patterns. The name of the climate model used as the source of future climate patterns is included at the end of the file name (e.g., "GISS-E2-R" or "HadGEM2-ES"). The approach for incorporating climate change into the migration model is described in the ICLUS v2.0 documentation. RCP4.5 assumes that global greenhoue gas emissions increase into the latter part of the century, before leveling off and eventually stabilizing by 2100 as a result of various climate change policies. RCP8.5 assumes that global greenhoue gas emissions increase through the year 2100.

The world's population first reached one billion people in 1805, and reached eight billion in 2022, and will peak at almost 10.2 billion by the end of the century. Although it took thousands of years to reach one billion people, it did so at the beginning of a phenomenon known as the demographic transition; from this point onwards, population growth has skyrocketed, and since the 1960s the population has increased by one billion people every 12 to 15 years. The demographic transition sees a sharp drop in mortality due to factors such as vaccination, sanitation, and improved food supply; the population boom that follows is due to increased survival rates among children and higher life expectancy among the general population; and fertility then drops in response to this population growth. Regional differences The demographic transition is a global phenomenon, but it has taken place at different times across the world. The industrialized countries of Europe and North America were the first to go through this process, followed by some states in the Western Pacific. Latin America's population then began growing at the turn of the 20th century, but the most significant period of global population growth occurred as Asia progressed in the late-1900s. As of the early 21st century, almost two-thirds of the world's population lives in Asia, although this is set to change significantly in the coming decades. Future growth The growth of Africa's population, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, will have the largest impact on global demographics in this century. From 2000 to 2100, it is expected that Africa's population will have increased by a factor of almost five. It overtook Europe in size in the late 1990s, and overtook the Americas a few years later. In contrast to Africa, Europe's population is now in decline, as birth rates are consistently below death rates in many countries, especially in the south and east, resulting in natural population decline. Similarly, the population of the Americas and Asia are expected to go into decline in the second half of this century, and only Oceania's population will still be growing alongside Africa. By 2100, the world's population will have over three billion more than today, with the vast majority of this concentrated in Africa. Demographers predict that climate change is exacerbating many of the challenges that currently hinder progress in Africa, such as political and food instability; if Africa's transition is prolonged, then it may result in further population growth that would place a strain on the region's resources, however, curbing this growth earlier would alleviate some of the pressure created by climate change.

Future county population was based on projections for 2100 from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM; Theobald 2005). SERGoM simulates population based on existing patterns of growth by census block, groundwater well and road density, and transportation distance to urban areas, while constraining the pattern of development to areas outside of protected areas and urban areas (Theobald 2005). The dataset here is a projection for a “baseline” growth scenario that assumes a similar trajectory to that of current urban growth (Bierwagen et al. 2010). SERGoM accuracy is estimated as 79–99% when compared to 1990 and 2000 census data, with the accuracy varying by urban/exurban/rural categories and increasing slightly with coarser resolution (Theobald 2005). The accuracy of future model predictions with different economic scenarios is most sensitive to fertility rates, which are subject to cultural change, economic recessions, and the current pattern of lands protected from development (Bierwagen et al. 2010). Bierwagen, B. G., D. M. Theobald, C. R. Pyke, A. Choate, P. Groth, J. V. Thomas, and P. Morefield. 2010. National housing and impervious surface scenarios for integrated climate impact assessments. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 107:20887-20892. Theobald, D. M. 2005. Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecology and Society 10: article 32.

Midyear population estimates and projections for all countries and areas of the world with a population of 5,000 or more // Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, International Programs Center // Note: Total population available from 1950 to 2100 for 227 countries and areas. Other demographic variables available from base year to 2100. Base year varies by country and therefore data are not available for all years for all countries. See methodology at https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/international-programs/about/idb.html

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the Wrangell population over the last 20 plus years. It lists the population for each year, along with the year on year change in population, as well as the change in percentage terms for each year. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population change of Wrangell across the last two decades. For example, using this dataset, we can identify if the population is declining or increasing. If there is a change, when the population peaked, or if it is still growing and has not reached its peak. We can also compare the trend with the overall trend of United States population over the same period of time.

Key observations

In 2022, the population of Wrangell was 2,070, a 1.43% decrease year-by-year from 2021. Previously, in 2021, Wrangell population was 2,100, a decline of 1.27% compared to a population of 2,127 in 2020. Over the last 20 plus years, between 2000 and 2022, population of Wrangell decreased by 365. In this period, the peak population was 2,521 in the year 2018. The numbers suggest that the population has already reached its peak and is showing a trend of decline. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Data Coverage:

• From 2000 to 2022

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column displays the data year (Measured annually and for years 2000 to 2022)
• Population: The population for the specific year for the Wrangell is shown in this column.
• Year on Year Change: This column displays the change in Wrangell population for each year compared to the previous year.
• Change in Percent: This column displays the year on year change as a percentage. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for Wrangell Population by Year. You can refer the same here

These data are to supplement the following in-press publication:

Zoraghein, H., and O'Neill B. (2020). U.S. state-level projections of the spatial distribution of population consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Sustainability.

The data herein were generated using the population_gravity model which can be found here: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/population_gravity

CONTENTS:

zoraghein-oneill_population_gravity_inputs_outputs.zip

contains a directory for each U.S. state for inputs and outputs

inputs contain the following:

_1km.tif: Urban and Rural population GeoTIF rasters at a 1km resolution

value per grid cell: number of humans (float)

crs: EPSG:102003 - USA_Contiguous_Albers_Equal_Area_Conic - Projected

nodata value: -3.40282e+38

_mask_short_term.tif: Mask GeoTIF rasters at a 1km resolution that contain values from 0.0 to 1.0 for each 1 km grid cell to help calculate suitability depending on topographic and land use and land cover characteristics

value per grid cell: values from 0.0 to 1.0 (float) that are generated from topographic and land use and land cover characteristics to inform suitability as outlined in the companion publication

crs: EPSG:102003 - USA_Contiguous_Albers_Equal_Area_Conic - Projected

nodata value: -3.40282e+38

_popproj.csv: Population projection CSV files for urban, rural, and total population (number of humans; float) for SSPs 2, 3, and 5 for years 2010-2100

_coordinates.csv: CSV file containing the coordinates for each 1 km grid cell within the target state. File includes a header with the fields XCoord, YCoord, FID.,Where data types and field descriptions are as follows: (XCoord, float, X coordinate in meters),(YCoord, float, Y coordinate in meters),(FID, int, Unique feature id)

_within_indices.txt: text file containing a file structured as a Python list (e.g. [0, 1]) that contains the index of each grid cell when flattened from a 2D array to a 1D array for the target state.

_params.csv: CSV file containing the calibration parameters (alpha_rural, beta_rural, alpha_urban, beta_urban; float) for the population_gravity model for each year from 2010-2100 in 10-year time-steps as described in the companion publication

outputs contain the following:

jones_oneill directory; these are the comparison datasets used to build Figures 7 and 8 in the companion publication

contains three directories: SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 that each contain a GeoTIF representing total population (number of humans; float) at 1km resolution for years 2050 and 2100.

1kmtotal_jones_oneill.tif:

value per grid cell: number of humans (float)

crs: EPSG:102003 - USA_Contiguous_Albers_Equal_Area_Conic - Projected

nodata value: -3.40282e+38

model directory; these are the model outputs from population_gravity for SSP2, SSP3, and SSP5 that each contain a GeoTIF representing urban, rural, and total population (number of humans; float) at 1km resolution for years 2020-2100 in 10-year time-steps.

1km_jones_oneill.tif:

value per grid cell: number of humans (float)

crs: EPSG:102003 - USA_Contiguous_Albers_Equal_Area_Conic - Projected

nodata value: -3.40282e+38

zoraghein-oneill_population_gravity_national-ssp-maps.zip

Results of the population_gravity model mosaicked to the National scale at a 1km resolution and the comparison Jones and O'Neill research. These are used to generate Figure 6 of the companion paper

National_1km_jones_oneill.tif:

value per grid cell: number of humans (float)

crs: EPSG:102003 - USA_Contiguous_Albers_Equal_Area_Conic - Projected

nodata value: -3.40282e+38

National_1km_.tif:

value per grid cell: number of humans (float)

crs: EPSG:102003 - USA_Contiguous_Albers_Equal_Area_Conic - Projected

nodata value: -3.40282e+38

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the Lewiston town population distribution across 18 age groups. It lists the population in each age group along with the percentage population relative of the total population for Lewiston town. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population distribution of Lewiston town by age. For example, using this dataset, we can identify the largest age group in Lewiston town.

Key observations

The largest age group in Lewiston Town, New York was for the group of age 15 to 19 years years with a population of 2,100 (13.20%), according to the ACS 2018-2022 5-Year Estimates. At the same time, the smallest age group in Lewiston Town, New York was the 80 to 84 years years with a population of 422 (2.65%). Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2018-2022 5-Year Estimates

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2018-2022 5-Year Estimates

Age groups:

• Under 5 years
• 5 to 9 years
• 10 to 14 years
• 15 to 19 years
• 20 to 24 years
• 25 to 29 years
• 30 to 34 years
• 35 to 39 years
• 40 to 44 years
• 45 to 49 years
• 50 to 54 years
• 55 to 59 years
• 60 to 64 years
• 65 to 69 years
• 70 to 74 years
• 75 to 79 years
• 80 to 84 years
• 85 years and over

Variables / Data Columns

• Age Group: This column displays the age group in consideration
• Population: The population for the specific age group in the Lewiston town is shown in this column.
• % of Total Population: This column displays the population of each age group as a proportion of Lewiston town total population. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for Lewiston town Population by Age. You can refer the same here

Algeria DZ: Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data was reported at 0.020 % in 2100. This records a decrease from the previous number of 0.040 % for 2099. Algeria DZ: Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data is updated yearly, averaging 1.105 % from Jun 1987 (Median) to 2100, with 114 observations. The data reached an all-time high of 2.820 % in 1987 and a record low of 0.020 % in 2100. Algeria DZ: Population Projection: Mid Year: Growth data remains active status in CEIC and is reported by U.S. Census Bureau. The data is categorized under Global Database’s Algeria – Table DZ.US Census Bureau: Demographic Projection.

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the Buffalo population over the last 20 plus years. It lists the population for each year, along with the year on year change in population, as well as the change in percentage terms for each year. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population change of Buffalo across the last two decades. For example, using this dataset, we can identify if the population is declining or increasing. If there is a change, when the population peaked, or if it is still growing and has not reached its peak. We can also compare the trend with the overall trend of United States population over the same period of time.

Key observations

In 2023, the population of Buffalo was 1,855, a 1.87% increase year-by-year from 2022. Previously, in 2022, Buffalo population was 1,821, an increase of 1.28% compared to a population of 1,798 in 2021. Over the last 20 plus years, between 2000 and 2023, population of Buffalo decreased by 71. In this period, the peak population was 2,100 in the year 2009. The numbers suggest that the population has already reached its peak and is showing a trend of decline. Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program (PEP).

Data Coverage:

• From 2000 to 2023

Variables / Data Columns

• Year: This column displays the data year (Measured annually and for years 2000 to 2023)
• Population: The population for the specific year for the Buffalo is shown in this column.
• Year on Year Change: This column displays the change in Buffalo population for each year compared to the previous year.
• Change in Percent: This column displays the year on year change as a percentage. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for Buffalo Population by Year. You can refer the same here

This statistic shows the median age of the world population from 1950 to 2100. By 2100, the global median age is projected to be 41.9 years of age.

This is a data record of the input and output data associated with the following publication:

Jiang, L., B.C. O'Neill, H. Zoraghein, and S. Dahlke. 2020. Population scenarios for U.S. states consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba5b1.

The accompanying code can be found here:

Zoraghein, H., R. Nawrotzki, L. Jiang, and S. Dahlke (2020). IMMM-SFA/statepop: v0.1.0 (Version v0.1.0). Zenodo. http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3956703

The following detail the contents:

SSP.zip

_

_In_Mig.jpg

output figure for in-migration change through time for the target state

_Net_Mig.jpg

output figure for net-migration change through time for the target state

_Out_Mig.jpg

output figure for out-migration change through time for the target state

_proj_in_mig.csv

projected age and gender specific number of domestic in-migration for the state over time

_proj_net_mig.csv

projected age and gender specific number of domestic net-migration for the state over time

_proj_out_mig.csv

projected age and gender specific number of domestic out-migration for the state over time

_proj_pop.csv

projected age and gender specific number of population for the state over time

_total_in_mig.csv

projected age and gender specific in-migration from other states to the current state over time

_total_out_mig.csv

projected age and gender specific out-migration from the current state to other states over time

_.jpg

figure for projected change of population for the state

State_inputs.zip

_

_in_mig.csv

a table containing gender- and age-specific migration rates from all states to the current state at the base year.

_out_mig.csv

a table containing gender- and age-specific migration rates from the current state to all other states at the base year.

basePop.csv

a table containing gender- and age-specific counts of people in the current state at the base year (2010).

Constant_rate.csv

a table that constructs a constant scenario for fertility, mortality (life expectancy), urbanization level (required if we differentiate urban and rural), sex ratio at birth and net estimates of international migrants for the current state. The table is from 2010 to 2100 at 5 year intervals used for scenario building. The presented scenario, for instance, keeps everything constant at its historical record estimated from the data.

fertility.csv

a table containing age-specific fertility rates for the current state at the base year.

intMig.csv

a table containing gender- and age-specific proportions of international migrants to the current state at the base year.

mortality.csv

a table containing gender- and age-specific life expectancy and mortality rates for the current state at the base year (life table).

According to a population projection based on 2020 Census Data, in 2040, California's population will amount to ***** million inhabitants.

Life table data for "Bounce backs amid continued losses: Life expectancy changes since COVID-19"

cc-by Jonas Schöley, José Manuel Aburto, Ilya Kashnitsky, Maxi S. Kniffka, Luyin Zhang, Hannaliis Jaadla, Jennifer B. Dowd, and Ridhi Kashyap. "Bounce backs amid continued losses: Life expectancy changes since COVID-19".

These are CSV files of life tables over the years 2015 through 2021 across 29 countries analyzed in the paper "Bounce backs amid continued losses: Life expectancy changes since COVID-19".

40-lifetables.csv

Life table statistics 2015 through 2021 by sex, region and quarter with uncertainty quantiles based on Poisson replication of death counts. Actual life tables and expected life tables (under the assumption of pre-COVID mortality trend continuation) are provided.

30-lt_input.csv

Life table input data.

• `id`: unique row identifier
• `region_iso`: iso3166-2 region codes
• `sex`: Male, Female, Total
• `year`: iso year
• `age_start`: start of age group
• `age_width`: width of age group, Inf for age_start 100, otherwise 1
• `nweeks_year`: number of weeks in that year, 52 or 53
• `death_total`: number of deaths by any cause
• `population_py`: person-years of exposure (adjusted for leap-weeks and missing weeks in input data on all cause deaths)
• `death_total_nweeksmiss`: number of weeks in the raw input data with at least one missing death count for this region-sex-year stratum. missings are counted when the week is implicitly missing from the input data or if any NAs are encounted in this week or if age groups are implicitly missing for this week in the input data (e.g. 40-45, 50-55)
• `death_total_minnageraw`: the minimum number of age-groups in the raw input data within this region-sex-year stratum
• `death_total_maxnageraw`: the maximum number of age-groups in the raw input data within this region-sex-year stratum
• `death_total_minopenageraw`: the minimum age at the start of the open age group in the raw input data within this region-sex-year stratum
• `death_total_maxopenageraw`: the maximum age at the start of the open age group in the raw input data within this region-sex-year stratum
• `death_total_source`: source of the all-cause death data

• `death_total_prop_q1`: observed proportion of deaths in first quarter of year

• `death_total_prop_q2`: observed proportion of deaths in second quarter of year

• `death_total_prop_q3`: observed proportion of deaths in third quarter of year

• `death_total_prop_q4`: observed proportion of deaths in fourth quarter of year

• `death_expected_prop_q1`: expected proportion of deaths in first quarter of year

• `death_expected_prop_q2`: expected proportion of deaths in second quarter of year

• `death_expected_prop_q3`: expected proportion of deaths in third quarter of year

• `death_expected_prop_q4`: expected proportion of deaths in fourth quarter of year

• `population_midyear`: midyear population (July 1st)
• `population_source`: source of the population count/exposure data
• `death_covid`: number of deaths due to covid
• `death_covid_date`: number of deaths due to covid as of
• `death_covid_nageraw`: the number of age groups in the covid input data
• `ex_wpp_estimate`: life expectancy estimates from the World Population prospects for a five year period, merged at the midpoint year
• `ex_hmd_estimate`: life expectancy estimates from the Human Mortality Database
• `nmx_hmd_estimate`: death rate estimates from the Human Mortality Database
• `nmx_cntfc`: Lee-Carter death rate projections based on trend in the years 2015 through 2019

Deaths

• source:
  • STMF input data series (https://www.mortality.org/Public/STMF/Outputs/stmf.csv)
  • ONS for GB-EAW pre 2020
  • CDC for US pre 2020
• STMF:
  • harmonized to single ages via pclm
  • pclm iterates over country, sex, year, and within-year age grouping pattern and converts irregular age groupings, which may vary by country, year and week into a regular age grouping of 0:110
  • smoothing parameters estimated via BIC grid search seperately for every pclm iteration
  • last age group set to [110,111)
  • ages 100:110+ are then summed into 100+ to be consistent with mid-year population information
  • deaths in unknown weeks are considered; deaths in unknown ages are not considered
• ONS:
  • data already in single ages
  • ages 100:105+ are summed into 100+ to be consistent with mid-year population information
  • PCLM smoothing applied to for consistency reasons
• CDC:
  • The CDC data comes in single ages 0:100 for the US. For 2020 we only have the STMF data in a much coarser age grouping, i.e. (0, 1, 5, 15, 25, 35, 45, 55, 65, 75, 85+). In order to calculate life-tables in a manner consistent with 2020, we summarise the pre 2020 US death counts into the 2020 age grouping and then apply the pclm ungrouping into single year ages, mirroring the approach to the 2020 data

Population

• source:
  • for years 2000 to 2019: World Population Prospects 2019 single year-age population estimates 1950-2019
  • for year 2020: World Population Prospects 2019 single year-age population projections 2020-2100
• mid-year population
  • mid-year population translated into exposures:
    • if a region reports annual deaths using the Gregorian calendar definition of a year (365 or 366 days long) set exposures equal to mid year population estimates
    • if a region reports annual deaths using the iso-week-year definition of a year (364 or 371 days long), and if there is a leap-week in that year, set exposures equal to 371/364\*mid_year_population to account for the longer reporting period. in years without leap-weeks set exposures equal to mid year population estimates. further multiply by fraction of observed weeks on all weeks in a year.

COVID deaths

• source: COVerAGE-DB (https://osf.io/mpwjq/)
• the data base reports cumulative numbers of COVID deaths over days of a year, we extract the most up to date yearly total

External life expectancy estimates

• source:
  • World Population Prospects (https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Files/1_Indicators%20(Standard)/CSV_FILES/WPP2019_Life_Table_Medium.csv), estimates for the five year period 2015-2019
  • Human Mortality Database (https://mortality.org/), single year and age tables

About this dataset

Context

The dataset tabulates the Lebanon population distribution across 18 age groups. It lists the population in each age group along with the percentage population relative of the total population for Lebanon. The dataset can be utilized to understand the population distribution of Lebanon by age. For example, using this dataset, we can identify the largest age group in Lebanon.

Key observations

The largest age group in Lebanon, PA was for the group of age 0-4 years with a population of 2,100 (7.89%), according to the 2021 American Community Survey. At the same time, the smallest age group in Lebanon, PA was the 85+ years with a population of 431 (1.62%). Source: U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2017-2021 5-Year Estimates.

Content

When available, the data consists of estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) 2017-2021 5-Year Estimates.

Age groups:

• Under 5 years
• 5 to 9 years
• 10 to 14 years
• 15 to 19 years
• 20 to 24 years
• 25 to 29 years
• 30 to 34 years
• 35 to 39 years
• 40 to 44 years
• 45 to 49 years
• 50 to 54 years
• 55 to 59 years
• 60 to 64 years
• 65 to 69 years
• 70 to 74 years
• 75 to 79 years
• 80 to 84 years
• 85 years and over

Variables / Data Columns

• Age Group: This column displays the age group in consideration
• Population: The population for the specific age group in the Lebanon is shown in this column.
• % of Total Population: This column displays the population of each age group as a proportion of Lebanon total population. Please note that the sum of all percentages may not equal one due to rounding of values.

Good to know

Margin of Error

Data in the dataset are based on the estimates and are subject to sampling variability and thus a margin of error. Neilsberg Research recommends using caution when presening these estimates in your research.

Custom data

If you do need custom data for any of your research project, report or presentation, you can contact our research staff at research@neilsberg.com for a feasibility of a custom tabulation on a fee-for-service basis.

Inspiration

Neilsberg Research Team curates, analyze and publishes demographics and economic data from a variety of public and proprietary sources, each of which often includes multiple surveys and programs. The large majority of Neilsberg Research aggregated datasets and insights is made available for free download at https://www.neilsberg.com/research/.

Recommended for further research

This dataset is a part of the main dataset for Lebanon Population by Age. You can refer the same here