This dataset contains a coastal erosion hazards analysis for Hurricane Milton. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that combines observations of beach morphology with hydrodynamic models to predict how sandy beaches, the first line of defense for many coasts exposed to tropical storms and hurricanes, will respond during a direct landfall. Storm-induced total water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change - collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. The storm surge elevations along the open coast were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) probabilistic surge forecast (psurge), which is based on conditions specific to the landfalling storm. Errors in hurricane forecasts are included in order to identify probable surge levels. The 10% exceedance surge level was used to represent the worst-case scenario. Maximum wave heights in 20-m water depth, obtained from the NOAA WaveWatch3 model 7-day forecast, were used to compute wave runup elevations at the shoreline. Dune elevations were extracted from lidar topographic surveys.

Disclaimer: This product is based on published research results of the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project and is intended to indicate the potential for coastal change caused by storm surge and wave runup. This product is based on an analysis that simplifies complex coastal change processes to two important aspects - measured dune elevations and predicted total water levels. As such, the actual changes that occur during extreme storms may be different than what is described here. Results apply to open coast environments and do not consider potential coastal change along inland waters. The public should not base evacuation decisions on this product. Citizens should follow the evacuation advice of local emergency management authorities.

This dataset contains a coastal erosion hazards analysis for Hurricane Milton. The analysis is based on a storm-impact scaling model that combines observations of beach morphology with hydrodynamic models to predict how sandy beaches, the first line of defense for many coasts exposed to tropical storms and hurricanes, will respond during a direct landfall. Storm-induced total water levels, due to both surge and waves, are compared to beach and dune elevations to determine the probabilities of three types of coastal change - collision (dune erosion), overwash, and inundation. The storm surge elevations along the open coast were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) probabilistic surge forecast (psurge), which is based on conditions specific to the landfalling storm. Errors in hurricane forecasts are included in order to identify probable surge levels. The 10% exceedance surge level was used to represent the worst-case scenario. Maximum wave heights in 20-m water depth, obtained from the NOAA WaveWatch3 model 7-day forecast, were used to compute wave runup elevations at the shoreline. Dune elevations were extracted from lidar topographic surveys.

Disclaimer: This product is based on published research results of the USGS National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project and is intended to indicate the potential for coastal change caused by storm surge and wave runup. This product is based on an analysis that simplifies complex coastal change processes to two important aspects - measured dune elevations and predicted total water levels. As such, the actual changes that occur during extreme storms may be different than what is described here. Results apply to open coast environments and do not consider potential coastal change along inland waters. The public should not base evacuation decisions on this product. Citizens should follow the evacuation advice of local emergency management authorities.