Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
The Atlas shows regional climate conditions projected to occur if Earth’s long-term average temperature reaches specific levels of warming. These Global Warming Levels (GWLs) correspond to global average temperature increases of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels measured from 1851 to 1900. On the Fahrenheit scale, these warming levels are 2.7, 3.6, 5.4, and 7.2 °F. As of the 2020s, global average temperature has already increased around 2 °F above pre-industrial levels. County projections for each global warming level were calculated by identifying the year when individual climate models reach that level. The projections were then averaged with the 9 previous years and the 10 subsequent years to represent the climatic state for that period. Using a 30-year average avoids focusing on a shorter period that may be warmer or cooler than the two-decade average. Projections for all GWLs are based on the same fossil-fuel intensive scenario, SSP5-8.5.Variables IncludedDaily temperature and precipitation projections were used to calculate more decision-relevant thresholds of climate exposure, which are available in this feature layer. The data variables and field names in this feature layer were used to create the maps found in the NCA Interactive Atlas Explorer. Name of Map Description of the variableVariable Field NameChange in Average Annual TemperatureAverage temperature (daily high + daily low/2) for the entire yearTemperature averageChange in Average Annual Maximum TemperatureAverage of the highest temperature of the day over a full yearTemp Annual MaxChange in Mean Summer TemperatureAverage temperature (daily high + daily low/2) during June, July, & AugustTemp mean summer Change in Temperature on the Hottest Day of the Year Highest temperature on the hottest day of the year Temp max 1-dayChange in Lowest Temperatures of SummerAverage of the lowest temperature of the day during June, July, AugustTemp min summerChange in the Number of Days Over 95°FDays per year with an afternoon high temperature of at least 95°FTemp Days 95 FChange in the Number of Days Over 100°FDays per year with an afternoon high temperature of at least 100°FTemp Days 100 FChange in the Number of Days Over 105°FDays per year with an afternoon high temperature of at least 105°FTemp Days 105 FChange in the Number of Warm NightsDays per year when the overnight low is 70°F or warmerTemp Days Min 70 FChange in the Number of Days Under 32 deg FDays per year when the lowest temperature is below freezingTemp Days Min 32 FChange in the Number of Days below 0°FDays per year when the lowest temperature is well below freezingTemp Days Min 0 FChange in Annual PrecipitationTotal precipitation over a full yearPrecip AnnualChange in Extreme Precipitation Total precipitation over a year that arrives on days when the daily total is in the top 1% of historical amountsPrecip Above 99th pctlChange in Days with Extreme PrecipitationDays per year when precipitation totals are in the top 1% of historical amountsPrecip Days 99 pctlChange in Precipitation on the Wettest Day of the YearHighest daily precipitation total of the yearPrecip 1-day maxChange in Precipitation on the Wettest Day in 5 YearsHighest daily precipitation total over five yearsPrecip 5-year maxCoastal Inundation related to Sea Level RiseAreas projected to be below sea level in 2100SLR_InundationDownscaled Climate ProjectionsProjections in the Atlas are from global climate models that participated in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). To make the CMIP6 projections more relevant at regional-to-local scales, results from global models were spatially downscaled using statistical methods documented by LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM. Note that climate projections are not weather forecasts for specific dates in the future—rather, they describe potential climate conditions for future decades based on plausible scenarios of human actions.Climate Projections for States and Territories Outside the Contiguous United StatesThe availability of downscaled climate projections for geographies outside of the contiguous United States is limited. For locations in Alaska, Hawai‘i, and Puerto Rico, the Atlas includes global data from CMIP6 and downscaled data from STAR-ESDM for selected weather stations. Specifically, where downscaled data are not available, the Atlas includes results from an ensemble of individual models in the scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP).More details are available from the NCA Interactive Atlas site.
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Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
License information was derived automatically
The Atlas shows regional climate conditions projected to occur if Earth’s long-term average temperature reaches specific levels of warming. These Global Warming Levels (GWLs) correspond to global average temperature increases of 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels measured from 1851 to 1900. On the Fahrenheit scale, these warming levels are 2.7, 3.6, 5.4, and 7.2 °F. As of the 2020s, global average temperature has already increased around 2 °F above pre-industrial levels. County projections for each global warming level were calculated by identifying the year when individual climate models reach that level. The projections were then averaged with the 9 previous years and the 10 subsequent years to represent the climatic state for that period. Using a 30-year average avoids focusing on a shorter period that may be warmer or cooler than the two-decade average. Projections for all GWLs are based on the same fossil-fuel intensive scenario, SSP5-8.5.Variables IncludedDaily temperature and precipitation projections were used to calculate more decision-relevant thresholds of climate exposure, which are available in this feature layer. The data variables and field names in this feature layer were used to create the maps found in the NCA Interactive Atlas Explorer. Name of Map Description of the variableVariable Field NameChange in Average Annual TemperatureAverage temperature (daily high + daily low/2) for the entire yearTemperature averageChange in Average Annual Maximum TemperatureAverage of the highest temperature of the day over a full yearTemp Annual MaxChange in Mean Summer TemperatureAverage temperature (daily high + daily low/2) during June, July, & AugustTemp mean summer Change in Temperature on the Hottest Day of the Year Highest temperature on the hottest day of the year Temp max 1-dayChange in Lowest Temperatures of SummerAverage of the lowest temperature of the day during June, July, AugustTemp min summerChange in the Number of Days Over 95°FDays per year with an afternoon high temperature of at least 95°FTemp Days 95 FChange in the Number of Days Over 100°FDays per year with an afternoon high temperature of at least 100°FTemp Days 100 FChange in the Number of Days Over 105°FDays per year with an afternoon high temperature of at least 105°FTemp Days 105 FChange in the Number of Warm NightsDays per year when the overnight low is 70°F or warmerTemp Days Min 70 FChange in the Number of Days Under 32 deg FDays per year when the lowest temperature is below freezingTemp Days Min 32 FChange in the Number of Days below 0°FDays per year when the lowest temperature is well below freezingTemp Days Min 0 FChange in Annual PrecipitationTotal precipitation over a full yearPrecip AnnualChange in Extreme Precipitation Total precipitation over a year that arrives on days when the daily total is in the top 1% of historical amountsPrecip Above 99th pctlChange in Days with Extreme PrecipitationDays per year when precipitation totals are in the top 1% of historical amountsPrecip Days 99 pctlChange in Precipitation on the Wettest Day of the YearHighest daily precipitation total of the yearPrecip 1-day maxChange in Precipitation on the Wettest Day in 5 YearsHighest daily precipitation total over five yearsPrecip 5-year maxCoastal Inundation related to Sea Level RiseAreas projected to be below sea level in 2100SLR_InundationDownscaled Climate ProjectionsProjections in the Atlas are from global climate models that participated in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). To make the CMIP6 projections more relevant at regional-to-local scales, results from global models were spatially downscaled using statistical methods documented by LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM. Note that climate projections are not weather forecasts for specific dates in the future—rather, they describe potential climate conditions for future decades based on plausible scenarios of human actions.Climate Projections for States and Territories Outside the Contiguous United StatesThe availability of downscaled climate projections for geographies outside of the contiguous United States is limited. For locations in Alaska, Hawai‘i, and Puerto Rico, the Atlas includes global data from CMIP6 and downscaled data from STAR-ESDM for selected weather stations. Specifically, where downscaled data are not available, the Atlas includes results from an ensemble of individual models in the scenario model intercomparison project (ScenarioMIP).More details are available from the NCA Interactive Atlas site.